October 5, 2015
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
To read the October 5, 2015 Where To Invest Now Newsletter in .pdf format – Click Here
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2015 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest October 2015
Best Stocks To Buy October 2015
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
Gain For The Week $ 120
2015 YTD Profits $ 7924
Over 79% Returns
2014 Profits = $ 20,443
Over 204% Returns
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
We Have 3 Long Open Positions:
ETSY October 15 Calls 4 @ $ 0.40 and the other
4 @ $ 0.75 also
6 TBT Oct Calls
Funds in Use $ 1048
Whose Opinion Matters ??
Week 40 had a slight gain of $124 bringing our YTD up to $7,924. Funds in use are only $1048. It was a hectic week with the S&P500 still under pressure on several fronts. This includes the bio/pharma, materials, and financials. Of course, when they take down some of these names it also bleeds to the rest of the market. AAPL was also disappointing in the face of excellent initial sales of the new phone.
Ever since the Thursday/Friday break on August 20/21 we have been unable to have a “technically strong” rally. In the letter dated August 24th I stated that I didn’t expect a “V” shaped recovery and “whenever I see vertical action I have to sit back and wait for some horizontal action.” Now that we have had 6 weeks of sideways movement I am ready to make trades with some more knowable risk/reward parameters. Clearly the lows of this week (1871) need to hold, and if the market moves higher we have to have a meaningful move over the 2020 high of September 17th.
This week we bought TBT calls. This is the 20 year bond ETF that is leveraged 2:1 and acts as the reverse of the bond prices. That means that if bonds go lower the TBT goes up with the yield.
The Friday employment numbers were much weaker than expected and the bonds were bought and TBT went down. I did not use the 50% down rule for several reasons. First, they gapped down dramatically and from the practical standpoint we would have taken a bigger loss than necessary, second, I would have bought them back immediately to re-establish the position and didn’t want to have 2 unnecessary commissions. Lastly, the longer end of the rate curve tends to whip around more rapidly but also tends to trend more directly. Rates WILL rise, and 20 year paper will be less in demand that the 1,2,5, and 10 year notes…This will ultimately mean less demand leading to over supply and lower prices relative to current rates until longer term financing comes back into vogue.
So, whose opinions should we be listening to ?? This is an issue that can only be examined by each and every investor using their time horizon. If you are a trader you’re probably not listening at all since you live day to day in the markets. If you’re both trading and investing you can glean some meaningful
data from all the talking heads, but the one place you don’t want to go is the politicians and government economists. Obama and company came out with the absurd take on jobs as “We have now produced 13.2 million jobs in the last however many months…..” but they don’t bother to mention that is not a “net” number. Coming into the election cycle politicians will quote whatever they want to show you what they think you should be looking at. Again, this is not a Democratic or Republican tactic. I have MANY times said that they are all liars and thieves.
So, the answer remains that first you decide what YOU want from the market. Then you can do your own homework or use someone attuned to your needs for info you feel you can trust. Lastly, it’s YOUR money and you have to take control of it. No one is writing you a check if they’re advice doesn’t pan out. And frankly, a little common sense also goes a long way….CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
New Trades Options Account
( 1 ) Buy 6 LULU October 52.50 Calls @ $ 1.05
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
10/01 |
Bought 6 TBT October 43 Calls |
0.98 |
588 |
||
10/01 |
Sold 4 XLE October 63 Puts |
2.55 |
1020 |
300 Gain |
|
10/01 |
Bought 4 XLE October 63 Puts |
1.80 |
720 |
||
09/29 |
Bought 4 ETSY October 15 Calls |
0.40 |
160 |
||
09/29 |
Sold 4 ETSY October 15 Calls 50% Loss Rule |
0.45 |
180 |
180 Loss |
|
09/24 |
Bought 4 ETSY October 15 Calls |
0.75 |
300 |
||
09/21 |
Sold 4 ETSY October 15 Calls( 100% Profit Rule ) |
1.80 |
720 |
360 Gain |
|
09/16 |
Bought 8 ETSY October 15 Calls |
0.90 |
720 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
16,472.37 +157.70 +0.97% |
Nasdaq
4707.78 +21.28 |
S&P 500
1951.36 +20.02 +1.04% |
Transportation
7873.64 +23.02 +0.29% |
Russell 2000
1114.12 -8.67 -0.77% |
Nasdaq100
4224.74 -99.12 -2.29% |
| Gold (spot)
1137.10 +8.90 +0.8% |
Silver
1526.3 +15.20 +1.0% |
Crude
45.54 -0.16 -0.4% |
Heating Oil
151.99 -2.57 -1.7% |
Unleaded Gas
1.3414 -0.0379 -2.8% |
Natural Gas
2.451 -0.18 -6.8% |
| VIX
20.94 -2.68 -11.3% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 86/100’s -8/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 79/100’s +7/100’s
|
Bonds
158-26 +3-12 2.95% +0.02% |
10 Yr. Note
129-11+1-16 2.16%+.03%
|
Copper
232.55 +4.20 +1.8% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 194.11 -1.60 -0.8% |
Barron’s* Confidence
72.2 -0.8 |
S&P100
851.90 -9.47 -1.10% |
5 Yr. Note
120-307 +29 1.47% +0.04%
|
Dollar
95.92 -0.34 -0.4% |
DJ Utilities
577.25 +4.89 +0.85% |
| AAII
Confidence Index |
Bullish
28.1 % -4.0% |
Bearish
39.9% +11.2% |
Neutral
32.0% -7.2% |
M1 Money Supply
+7.23% Sept 21st |
M-2 Money
Supply +6.87% Sept 21st |
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 1909 1980
Dow 15,930 16,660
QQQ 100.90 106 30
Transports 7735 8027
NASDAQ 4590 4790
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| ETSY 500 | 14.36 | 10.02 | |||||
| NFLX 50 | 105.53 | 10/01 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 40.13 | 10/01 | 40.55 10/01 | $ 84 | |||
| CUBA 500 | 7.58 | 09/28 | |||||
| GILD 50 | 96.20 | 09/28 | 93.90 09/29 | ( $ 115 ) | |||
| SPXU 100
And 100 |
38.85
39.14 |
09/25 | 38.13 | 42.49 09/29 | $ 364
$ 335 |
||
| SPXL 100 | 70.88 | 09/22 | 70.48 09/22 | ( $ 40 ) | |||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SNSS 1200 | 2.95 | 06/26 | 0.98 | 0.98 09/28 | ( $ 2364 ) | ||
| DSX 500 | 7.05 | 05/18 | |||||
| CRM 100 | 72.90 | 04/29 | 66.25 | ||||
| GILD 50 | 102.73 | 03/03 | 100.45 | 100.45 09/25 | ( $ 114 ) | ||
| NAT 300
Sold 200 |
10.16 | 02/13 | 14.40 06/25 | $ 848 | |||
| NBG 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
| BAC. Wts 5,000 lots | 0.7411 | 12/26 | |||||
| BSBR 500
500 |
4.84
3.75 |
12/18
|
|||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| FCX 150 | 34.99 | 09/09 | 7.75 | ||||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | |||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
New Options Trades :
( 1 ) Buy 12 LULU October 52.50 Calls @ $ 1.05
There were two closed option positions the
XLE October 63 Puts making $ 600 and the
ETSY October 15 Calls losing $ 360 netting a gain of $ 240.
There were 4 closed out stock positions losing $ 1,696.
The 2 SPXU trades gained $ 699.
The big loss was from a stop loss in SNSS losing $ 2364.
The GILD position lost $ 115 while the 200 SPXU’s bought and sold same day Oct 1st made $ 84.
For the entire week the result was a loss of $ 1,456.
For the year to date we have gains of $ 17,294.
Open position losses decreased to $ 14,409.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 18 positions:
AA, BAC.B.WS, BSBR( 2 ), CRM, CUBA, DSX, ETSY,FCX, MOS, NAT, NBG (3), NFLX, REPR, SAN, TEXQY
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of
$ 65,221 for the 18 open stock positions. There are three long option positions requiring
$ 2,096 totaling
$ 67,317 leaving
$ 32,683 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from Apple, JP Morgan, North American Tankers, Santander, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) | |
| TBT Oct 43 Calls
12 lots 0.98 |
10/01 2015 | ||||
| XLE Oct 63 Puts 8 lots 1.80 | 10/01/2015 | 2.55 | 10/01/15 | $ 600 | |
| ETSY Oct 15 Calls
8 lots 0.40 |
9/29/2015 | ||||
| ETSY Oct 15 Calls
8 lots 0.75 |
9/24/2015 | ||||
| ETSY Oct 10th 15 Calls
16 lots sold Balance 0.90 Leaving 8 lots long |
9/16/2015 | 1.80
0.45 |
09/21/15
09/29/15 |
$ 720
( $ 360 ) |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | 10:00 hrs ISM Services September ( 58.0 vs 59.0 )
Markets in china are closed for National Day Patriot Coal faces opposition from several fronts as it presents its reorganization plan in bankruptcy court. Container Store TCS ( 0.07 vs 0.11 ) |
| TUESDAY | Pepsico PEP ( 1.27 vs 1.36 )
08:30 hrs Trade Balance Aug ( -$44.5Bln ) vs ( -$41.5Bln ) The International Monetary Fund briefs reporters on the world economic outlook. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks about the outlook for the economy Performance Sports PSG ( 0.11 ) Team TISI ( 0.22 vs 0.34 ) Yumi Brands YUM ( .07 vs 0.87 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Acuity Brands AYI ( 1.63 vs 1.26 ) Constellation Brands STZ ( 1.32 vs 1.11 )
Monsanto MON ( 0.00 vs -0.27 ) Global Payment GPN ( 1.43 vs 1.22 ) 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 10/03 ( NA vs -6.7% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 10/03 ( NA vs 3.995 MlnBbls )
DragonWave DRWI ( -0.04 vs -0.14 ) Mistras Group MG ( 0.09 vs 0.04 ) Resources Connect RECN ( 0.16 vs 0.16 ) |
| THURSDAY | Dominos Pizza DPZ ( 0.74 vs 0.63 ) Intl Speedway ISCA ( -0.06 vs 0.02 )
Lindsay Corp LNN ( 0.55 vs 0.89 ) 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 10/03 ( 275K vs 277K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 09/26 ( 2205K vs 2191K ) 10:00 hrs ISM Index September ( 50.6 vs 51.1 ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 10/03 ( NA vs 98 bcf ) 14:00 hrs FOMC Minutes 09/17 will be scoured for clues related th the timing of a rate increase. House Republicans hold leadership elections. Alcoa AA ( 0.15 vs 0.31 ) Helen of Troy HELE ( 1.02 vs 0.99 ) Ruby Tuesday RT ( 0.05 vs -0.01 ) VOXX Intl VOXX ( 0.07 vs -0.11 ) Anglo Dynamics ANGO ( 0.11 vs 0.16 ) |
| FRIDAY | 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-agriculture September ( NA )
08:30 hrs Import Prices ex-oil ( ) 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories Aug ( 0.0% vs -0.1% ) |
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Stocks climbed buoyed by a rally in the price of oil following a weak jobs report. The gains caused stocks to make a sharp reversal after weekly data showed the number of rigs drilling for oil and gas fell to just 614, a multi-year low. The Dow Industrials gained 157.70 points for the week after being down as much as 258 points. The S&P 500 index advanced 20 points gaining 1% for the week, up to 1951.36, even above its 13-day price moving average at about 1940 after testing a low of 1893.70. The Nasdaq rose 21.28 points for the week up 0.45% to 4707.78. The DJ Transportation average rallied 23 points to 7873.64 after having been as low as 7723 while the Russell 2000 still remained lower on the day down 8.67 points to close at 1114.12, a loss of 0.77% for the week. The low point on the Russell Friday was 1080.61. On the opening Friday, the Russell was off 16.6% from its high made on June 23rd.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2% following the weak jobs report. Yields fell as low as 1.907% before making a rebound to close at 1.98% following the rally in oil and stocks. Late Thursday the yield on the 10-yr had been at 2.042%. Federal Funds Futures showed a 5% likelihood of an interest rate increase at the Fed’s October 27-28 policy meeting compared with 14% before the jobs report, according to data from the CME group. The odds were 27% for the Dec 15-16 meeting, compared with 44% before the data.
Buyers of U.S. government bonds have been rewarded handsomely, especially those betting on longer-dated debt. U.S. government bonds maturing in 25 years or more handed investors the best returns in the Treasury market in the third quarter. On Friday, the yield on the 30-year treasury bond fell to 2.826% from 2.851% Thursday and from 3.106% at the end of June. Meanwhile, Treasuries that offer investors protection against rising consumer prices ( TIPS ) been the worst performing bonds.
The XLE ( XLE: $ 63.85 ) up 2.53 or +4.1% made an outside day up move as the Energy Sector ETF rallied sharply on news of the sharp rig count reduction. With just 614 rigs working, the industry has nearly 62% fewer rigs working now than it did when the boom peaked with a record 1,609 working rigs in October 2014. U.S. oil production fell to 9.1 million barrels a day down 0.4% from the previous week. Crude rallies help buoy stock prices.
The dollar fell against major currencies following the jobs report. The price of gold rallied sharply gaining 2.1% to $ 1,137.10/ounce. A weaker dollar would help buoy exports and help corporate earnings which are being challenged by weak commodity prices and the stronger greenback.
DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading just above their respective closing lows from August 25 which is keeping alive the possibility of a “W” or 1-2-3 bottom chart pattern. The lows will need to hold or only be briefly violated followed by a rally back above mid-September highs in order for the pattern to be fulfilled and the bottom confirmed. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators are all negative and at or near oversold levels signaling a bounce could come soon.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in September after adding a downwardly revised 136,000 (from 173,000) in August. The Briefing.com Consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 205,000. Private payrolls added 118,000 jobs in September, up from a downwardly revised 100,000 (from 140,000) in August. The consensus expected private payrolls to add 200,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1% for a second consecutive month. That was exactly what the consensus expected.
All signs were pointing toward a rebound in the employment sector. Layoff levels, as shown by the initial claims level, were flirting with 15-year lows for the past month. The JOLTS report showed the most unfilled and open jobs since data started being collected in 2000. Businesses should have easily added 200,000 or more jobs in September. Not only did that not happen, but no amount of spin can make the September employment situation seem positive.
First, payroll revisions were negative across the board. August payrolls were revised down by 37,000 to 136,000. Historically, August payrolls tend to see large upward revisions. July payrolls were revised down to 223,000 from 245,000.
Next, average hourly earnings were flat, but that came about only after rounding. The actual average hourly wage declined by $0.01 to $25.09 from $25.10.
Finally, the average workweek declined to 34.5 hours from 34.6 hours.
Taken together, total aggregate earnings declined 0.2% in September after increasing a downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.7%) in August.
Given the drop in aggregate earnings, positive consumption growth will only come about if consumers dip into their savings. So far in this recovery, consumers have been reluctant to reduce their savings to increase consumption growth.
The stability in the unemployment rate, however, was the result of a sizable decline in the labor force participation rate rather than steady employment growth. The labor force declined by 350,000 people, which pushed the participation rate down to 62.4% from 62.6% in August. If the labor force participation rate remained at its August level, the unemployment rate would have increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.3%. All in all, this report is not what the Fed was hoping for as it pushes to raise interest rates sometime in 2015.
| Category | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN | MAY |
| Establishment Survey | |||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 142K | 136K | 223K | 245K | 260K |
| Goods-Producing | -13K | -22K | 7K | -3K | -2K |
| Construction | 8K | 5K | 5K | 1K | 12K |
| Manufacturing | -9K | -18K | 11K | 1K | 6K |
| Service-Providing | 131K | 122K | 188K | 221K | 254K |
| Retail Trade | 24K | 4K | 29K | 36K | 33K |
| Financial | 0K | 12K | 15K | 21K | 9K |
| Business | 31K | 27K | 40K | 68K | 68K |
| Temporary help | 5K | 7K | -11K | 20K | 9K |
| Education/Health | 29K | 47K | 42K | 61K | 57K |
| Leisure/Hospitality | 35K | 32K | 32K | 19K | 56K |
| Government | 24K | 36K | 28K | 27K | 8K |
| Average Workweek | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Production Workweek | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.6 |
| Factory Overtime | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Aggregate Hours Index | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Household Survey | |||||
| Household Survey | |||||
| Civilian Unemp. Rate | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
| Civilian Labor Force | -350K | -41K | 69K | -432K | 397K |
| Civilian Employed | -236K | 196K | 101K | -56K | 272K |
| Civilian Unemployed | -114K | -237K | -33K | -375K | 125K |
Median Household Income Index (in red)
A new report by Sentier Research, for instance, shows that median household income, adjusted for inflation, grew by $615 in August, to a post-recession high of $55,794. Real incomes are still about 2.7% lower than they were in 2000, indicating ongoing stress on American consumers. But the trend is improving after a period of stagnation, as this chart shows:
Monthly Auto Sales, annualized rate
Robust auto sales seem to confirm that consumer finances are improving. Sales in September hit an annualized rate of 18.2 million, which is close to the strongest level ever. Low interest rates and cheap gas prices help, but strong sales are not the result of desperate discounting, which has sometimes been the case before. The average price paid for a new car these days is more than $31,000, a record, according to TrueCar.com. This chart shows how sales have rebounded steadily since the darkest days of the recession:
Weekly Jobless Claims
While job growth may be disappointing, jobless claims are at the lowest level since 1973, as the chart below shows. Companies may not be hiring aggressively, but they’re not laying off many people, either:
Home builders are doing better with a pickup in both commercial and residential purchases pushing construction spending back to good levels.
Market Strategies Cycles
The time of the year is approaching when we begin to look for Seasonal MACD Buy Signals and once again there are many nervous traders and investors out there wondering how we could possibly be considering buying now. The markets do poorly in a climate of such uncertainty. After all, the market is still correcting for the first time in nearly four years. The Fed has created uncertainty by wavering on their rate increase which has done great harm to confidence. High yield. junk bond yields have risen sharply, auto-giant Volkswagen is under investigation for emission cheating and many commodity oriented companies in oil and metals are in financial difficulty such as Glencore. Volkswagen is a disaster for shareholders from before the scandal broke. Potentially, they are on the hook for some rather significant fines
A bear market is defined as a 20% or greater decline in the S&P 500. A correction would be a decline greater than 10% and less than 20%. Based upon these definitions every bear market begins as a correction, but not every correction becomes a bear market. As of today, the S&P 500 is in a correction only.There are many valid concerns here and the “wall of worry” is indeed quite tall. However, it is precisely times like now that have historically proven to be excellent buying opportunities.
As recent as last year, the market briskly sold off in late-September into October. Our October 21, 2014 Seasonal MACD Buy Signal proved timely. Volkswagen, Glencore and even the climb of high yield bonds definitely do make for great headlines, but the likelihood that anyone, or even all three combined, could lead to a recession in the U.S. or across the globe as many fear seems quite small.
On a closing basis, the S&P 500 has corrected 12.4% from its high on May 21 to its low on August 25. During the same time the Dow has corrected 14.4% from a May high of 18,312.39 to a low of 15,666.44 a loss of 2,645.95 points or 14.4%. A great deal of work is needed for the markets to signal an upside reversal.
Rig counts are collapsing!
They’re down more than 50% from their peak and plunging at an annualized pace of 69%.
Last week the number of rigs operating in the U.S. fell well below the red line to just 614 from 640 the week earlier, marking the fifth straight weekly decline.
There are 62% less rigs in operation this October down from October 2014. With far fewer oil and gas rigs drilling for energy, future production capacity is collapsing
New Ideas for October Seasonalities
Transports enter their historically favorable season at the beginning of October and it runs until May. iShares DJ Transports (IYT) is attractive below current levels with a buy limit of $134.08. The stop loss is $120.67 and auto sell is $175.95. The top 5 holdings are: FedEx ( FDX: $ 145.52 ), United Parcel Service ( UPS: $ 99.38 ), Kansas City Southern ( KSU: $ 94.17 ), Union Pacific ( UNP $ 91.90 ) and Ryder System ( R: $ 71.55 ). With nearly 70% of U.S GDP coming from consumers, seasonal strength in the consumer sector overlaps nicely with the transportation sector.
All those holiday gifts need to be moved from the factories to the stores. Lower energy prices can also give this trade a boost. The Trader’s Almanac is still short the IYT looking for a buy limit of $ 134.08 to cover shorts and go long. The IYT still needs to do a lot of work to become a buy.If IYT either trades below its buy limit, or has two closes above the 13-day moving average, now at about 143, we will recommend to buy the IYT.
Crude prices tend to peak along with the end of summer. Driving season and hurricane problems tend to come to an end which is an obstacle to demand while supple continues to abound. Seasonal direction is highlighted in yellow. The weak period for crude is just beginning and could be the catalyst for lower stock prices, as evidenced by the chart below..
Shorting the February crude oil futures contract in mid-September and holding until on or about December 9 has produced 21 winning trades in the last 32 years. This gives the trade a 65.6% success rate and theoretical total gains of $99,860 per futures contract. Following three consecutive years of losses, this trade has been successful for three years straight.
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems, Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.38 )* is now a member of the OTCQX, a leading U.S. Stock Exchange. Repro-Med Systems is a unique U.S. manufacturer of proprietary and patented medical devices world-wide which maintains offices and manufacturing facilities in Chester, NY. Principal products include the Freedom 60 Syringe Infusion System, RMS High-Flo Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets and the RES-Q-VAC Medical Suctioning Pump. In addition to being regulated by the FDA which has the authority to approve medical devices for marketing in the U.S., RMS complies with ISO International standards for quality development and manufacturing. RMS Medical Products is a d/b/a of Repro-Med Systems, Inc which was founded in 1980.
The Freedom60 has a proprietary technology that makes it desirable for the delivery of medications in a variety of therapies. It is very popular for the delivery of subcutaneous immunoglobulin for the treatment of primary immune deficiency disease. The infusion pump uses “dynamic equilibrium” which safely adjusts the flow of medication in accordance with what the patient’s body can accept. This minimizes complications often encountered with other infusion systems which can lead to site reactions and discomfort for the patient. The portability and simple operation of the FREEDOM60 Improves quality of life for patients who otherwise might have to use a complicated electronic pump mounted to a cumbersome infusion pole. Patients then don’t have to be confined.
RMS High-Flo Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets are being welcomed by healthcare providers and patients alike for their consistently high quality. The infusion sets are an ideal companion for the company’s FREEDOM 60 pump. The needle sets are patented and approved by the FDA. There has not been a new technology in needles other than Repro Med’s vastly better needle sets in quite some time.
RES-Q-VAC is a hand-held suction pump used to clear a patient’s airway or for other purposes when reliable hospital quality suctioning is needed. It uses patented technology to protect users from airborne pathogens and spillage of suctioned material. It is used by emergency service personnel and other first responders, as well as in hospitals and other institutions. There also is a version for use by dentists. RES-Q-VAC is invaluable in the event of disasters where power is lost because it doesn’t require electricity.
The Freedom 60 Syringe Infusion System is a method for administering medication through a small needle to the subcutaneous tissue, which is the fatty tissue just under the skin. Subcutaneous infusion allows medication into the vascular system more slowly. Combined with more frequent delivery this provides more consistent and stable blood levels. The elimination of large swings in these levels decreases side effects improving overall quality of life. RMS provides High-Flo needles to optimize liquid flow. Their smaller 26 gauge high flow needle flows at the same rate as the considerably larger 24 gauge needles, which are considerably less painful when entering the skin.
The Freedom 60 has had great success in Europe reflected in a huge sales increase of 47.8% first quarter 2015 up from same quarter 2014.
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Immune Therapeutics, Inc. (IMUN 0.22 )* Buy now. IMUN Naltrexone is an opioid antagonist used primarily in the management of alcohol and opioid dependence; the FDA approved Naltrexone in 1984 at 50mg. However, in much lower doses there is “Accumulating evidence suggests LDN can promote health supporting immune-modulation, which reduces various oncogenic inflammatory autoimmune processes.
The value of Naltrexone as an immune modulator was recognized by Dr. Ian Zagon at the University of Pennsylvania.2,3 The late Dr. Bernard Bihari, a Neurophysician from New York, USA (who passed away on May 16th, 2010) began treating his patients in the late 1980s4,5. Since that time, many doctors throughout the United States prescribe LDN for a number of indications including Multiple Sclerosis (MS), Parkinson’s disease, Crohn’s disease, HIV/AIDS, cancer and other autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
A number of research and clinical trials have been completed and undergone in regards to LDN immunotherapies, with phase I and phase II clinical trials successfully run at a number of universities in the United States and Europe, including Pennsylvania State University Medical School at Hershey; University of Chicago; State University of New York; SUNY Upstate Medical University; London Health Sciences Centre – University Hospital, USA; Alpert Medical School of Brown University; Department of Neurology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute; Division of Rheumatology, St. Louis College of Pharmacy; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah; Jondi-Shapoor University of Medical Sciences; Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center; and Multiple Sclerosis Center at UCSF6. These efforts were pioneered by leading immunologists Dr. Nicholas Plotnikoff, Dr. Ronald Herberman, Dr. Bernard Bihari, Dr. Angus Dalgleish, Dr. Ian S. Zagon, Dr. Jill Smith, Dr. McLaughlin, Dr. Jacqueline McCandless, and Moshe Rogosnitzky, among others.
HOW LDN WORKS
The mechanism of action of naltrexone, in autoimmune diseases and cancer, is still being researched, but there are theories as to the mechanism of action that both explain why LDN works on both autoimmune diseases and cancers, as well as inflammatory disease.
According to Mark J. Donahue’s paper on LDN that uses interviews from Dr. David, Gluck, Dr. Jacquelyn McCandless, Dr. Jarred Younger, and Dr. Ian Zagon:
“LDN is an opioid antagonist that not only blocks the reception of opiates, but also the body’s own endogenous opioids – endorphins. However, because LDN is administered in such a ‘low dose’ it is believed that LDN only briefly (for 3-4 hours) obstructs the effects of endorphins. Sensing an endorphin deficit, the hypothalamus signals for increased production of endorphins in what is called ‘the rebound effect.’ The rebound effect results in three things happening:
The study of immune cell glial interactions is in its infancy. Glial cells are the immune cells in your central nervous system (brain, spinal cord). They are very involved in dysregulation of pain systems, neuroinflammation, and some neurological diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s disease, Autism, ALS, infections of the brain.
LDN has treated Crohn’s Disease, HIV/Aids, Multiple Sclerosis, Autism, Fibromyalgia, Prostate Cancer, Hepatoblastoma, Gastrointestinal Disorders, Melanoma, Gulf War Syndrome , based on clinical studies and patient data.
Recently the company received its first license to sell their drug in Nigeria. The potential revenues could be just in Nigeria alone over 50 million plus. . There world -wide potential is unlimited and could exceed 2-3 hundred million in the next few years. This stock has tremendous potential and we believe could trade easily over one dollar per share by the end of 2015.
Enzo Biochem (ENZ 3.46) Bought at our price of $ 2.78. This turbulent market has had an effect on the price of Enzo Biochem. The markets, in my opinion, have been in a rotating correction and in some instances, a bear market for some months. It appears that the cause of this is China but I am sure that there are other factors. If you remember the ‘flash crash” of 2010 the market correction was over quickly and those that held through that market decline profited handsomely over the years after the crash. I think that the market is giving us another chance to buy Enzo Biochem at a bargain price. The Company’s fiscal year was over July 31. I would imagine the Quarter and Year results will be made available by mid-October. With the cash settlement in two litigations the cash position should show a major improvement. Top line revenues should also show an improvement. Depending on R&D expenses and litigation expenses the net loss should also show improvement. At today’s price of $2.90 the Company is valued at approximately $130 million and with revenues approaching $100 million or 1.3 times revenues. The last Craig Hallum report had a fair value of Enzo’s business of $6 per share. When AmpiProbe is approved and into the market that number is projected at $14 per share. There is always risk in the market so the investment is not without risk but if held over time should deliver handsome profits off of today’s price. Items to look forward to by the end of the year would be litigation news and an AmpiProbe decision all of which should have a positive impact on the stock price.
Premier Holding Corporation (PRHL: 0.067)* Shares Outstanding 189,218,861 We initiate coverage of the Premier Holding Corporation with an immediate target of $ 0.65, which would be 10x the current closing price which was also the bid price offered mostly at $ 0.07. The deregulated energy business is estimated to be a $ 500 billion+ industry in the U.S. and is estimated to be 5-7 times larger than the lucrative telecom deregulation market launched in the early 1980’s. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration the deregulated retail electric supply market in the northeast alone is over $ 75 billion annually and the current New York market is approximately $ 7.7 billion.
In February 2013 they purchased 80% of the Power Company ( “TPC” ) which is in the deregulated energy space, a $ 500 billion market. The company offers electricity and gas to consumers in the deregulated energy markets. PRHL through its subsidiaries accumulates residential and commercial clients in deregulated markets from all subsidiaries and cross sells energy and energy efficient products and services. I addition PRHL provides top management and financial support services. They provide two basic deliverables to clients: (1) Energy alternatives brought about by deregulation that result in lower cost energy and (2) Offer energy efficient solutions that provide savings through utilization of state of the art technologies. When Premier acquired TPC, they had sold 11,000 energy contracts. Today that number is over 100,000 contracts. (Residential Equivalent Contracts)
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
The HDGE surged last week to 11.44 its best close above both the 13 and 50 day price moving averages. The break-out above 11.04 was the buy signal and an opportunity to make money while the markets are plummeting. We bought the HDGE @ 11.04. HDGE is the BEAR hedge.
We were able to buy Golar. We bought Golar and were stopped out at $ 30.50 for a loss of $ 194 plus commissions. Don’t be discouraged. It can take several attempts to get a good trade on the books. Use stops. Keep losses small. We were able to buy Southwest Air (LUV) at 30.50.
We bought Harley Davidson (HOG) at 54.
We bought Virgin Air (VA) at 32.20. Please check on the previous weekly market letters if there are questions. We are long in Diana Shipping at 6.60. DSX is looking better and you should buy now if not already long . We bought Bank of America and were stopped out Friday . It looks to have made a double bottom at the 14.63 area.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss
Or sold |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.5B | 33.12 | 32.20 | 29.50 |
| LUV | Southwest Air | Regional Airlines | 16 | 1.15 | 22.6B | 38.38 | 33 | 32.31sco |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | Consumer Goods | 14 | 1.87 | 11.6B | 54.95 | 54 | 52.39sco |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 3.46 | 2.78 | 2.44x |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 15.38 | 16.45 | 15.22x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 11.31 | 11.04 X | 11.00X | |||
| GLNG | Golar | Liquefied N.G. Hedging | NA | 30.39 | 3.14B | 34.48 | 32.44 | 30.50 |
| DSX | Diana Shipping | Dry Cargo Shipping | N/A | 3.7 | 611 | 6.41 | 6.60 | 5.90 |
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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