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Where To Invest Now For Quick Profits
July 5, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest in July 2016
Best Stocks To Buy in July 2016
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
How To Trade Options
Proven Profits Trading Success
Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:
134% Profits on HL Calls in 55 Days
51% Loss on TBT Calls in 3 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
18% Loss on QQQ Calls in 5 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
107% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
28% Profits on NEM Calls in 13 Days
105% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
97% Profits on SJM Puts in 7 Days
207% Profits on SIG Puts in 6 Days
70% Profits on GLD Calls in 1 Day
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$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
There are 2 Open positions:
Long 3 HL Sept 3.50 Calls
Long 10 AA July 9 Calls
Funds in Use $ 987
Our trade in the TBT calls was a disappointment since the demand for the U.S. treasuries continues to be insatiable, and with rates overseas being lower to negative the spreads between the German Bund, or Yen denominated issues and our 10 year clearly favor the US markets.
Unfortunately while this scenario seems great all around there are some unintended consequences that we will continue to deal with. The first is lower rates for the banks to pay out. Sounds good for banks to have money to lend at low rates, but the continued low rates actually keeps a lid on the profit of those banks. Traditionally, a steepening yield curve makes a major impact on profits while an inverted curve is generally a prelude to recession. Another issue is that the lack of available “low risk” yield forces all those who need yield to operate must ratchet up their risk tolerance in order to survive. These include pension funds, annuity funds, and of course anyone else who lives on fixed income. Without being an alarmist, the decline of the middle class can easily be followed by problems of the elderly. It has been years of returns that anyone on a fixed income can tell you have dramatically decreased buying power.
As to the market impact, consider that we are less than a couple of percentage points of all-time highs. Traditionally, and well documented performance show that without the financial sector Bull markets do not continue to advance. While it is true that most of the banks have passed the most recent “stress tests” and many are being allowed to reinstate their dividends and buybacks, this is in fact just return of capital at best, and self-liquidation at worst. The banks are already hamstrung with higher capital requirements (READ:lower leverage) and will be unable to produce the kind of returns that Wall Street requires for real interest in this pivotal group.
The A.A.I.I. numbers are still more bearish than bullish but the outlier is still the neutral reading, and this makes sense for an election year that has no candidate that the majority of people trust. Between the bearish (10% over average) and neutral (20% over average) a majority of people think we have a problem.
Since this is a long weekend after a week with an almost 1000 point range, I will not be issuing any new trades. I hesitate to issue any new long positions without some way to access the risk, and I also hesitate to initiate shorts that represent “fighting the Fed” trades.
The only exception is for the $100,000 account is a trade in DB, which Mike outlines in the Fundamental section. I exclude it from the options trades since it would require a margin account and may result in a possible purchase of actual shares. The trade is to sell short 5 DB 10/13 puts @ $1.25 or better. The thought is that if the stock, currently at new all-time lows, continues to decline we will be a buyer @ $13, less the $1.25 we receive or a purchase price of $11.75. If the stock goes higher in the time between now and October the puts will go worthless and we will make some portion of 100% of the premium received…CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
07/01 | Sold 6 TBT July 32 Calls | 0.30 | 180 | 192 Loss | |
07/01 | Sold 3 HL September 3.50 Calls | 1.99 | 597 | 342 Gain | |
06/28 | Bought 6 TBT July 32 Calls | 0.62 | 372 | ||
06/27 | Bought 4 AA July 9 Calls | 0.54 | 216 | ||
06/24 | Bought 6 AA July 9 Calls | 0.86 | 516 | ||
05/03 | Bought 6 HL September 3.50 Calls | 0.85 | 510 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
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MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
Dow
17,949.37 +548.62 +3.15% |
Nasdaq
4862.57 +154.59 |
S&P 500
2102.95 +65.54 +3.22% |
Transportation
7557.62 +237.07 +3.24% |
Russell 2000
1156.77 +29.23 +2.59% |
Nasdaq100
4437.44 +151.74 +3.54% |
Gold (spot)
1336.70 +16.70 +1.3% |
Silver
1958.8 +174.9 +9.8% |
Crude
48.99 +1.35 +3.5% |
Heating Oil
151.15 +4.30 +2.9% |
Unleaded Gas
1.5135 -0.0203 -1.3% |
Natural Gas
2.987 +0.293 +11.0% |
VIX
14.77 -10.99 -42.7% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 130/100’s -20/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 74/100’s +2/100’s
|
Bonds
173-22 +3-23 2.22% -.21% |
10 Yr. Note
132-024+224 1.44%-0.13%
|
Copper
221.70 +10.10 +4.8% |
CRB Inflation
Index 194.26. +5.57 +3.0% |
Barron’s* Confidence
65.3 -2.3 |
S&P100
929.68 +29.17 +3.24% |
5 Yr. Note
122-044 +12 1.00% -0.12%
|
Dollar
95.64 +0.10 +0.1% |
DJ Utilities
715.97 +30.26 +4.41% |
AAII
Confidence Index
Long Term Average |
Bullish
28.9% +6.9%
38.74% |
Bearish
33.4% -1.8%
30.30% |
Neutral
37.7% -5.1%
30.96% |
M! Money
Supply +7.83% June 20th
|
M2 Money
Supply +6.75% June 20th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2070 2121
Dow 17,660 18,016
QQQ 102.10 109.60
Transports 7305 7735
NASDAQ 4540 49.40
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
.
Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
PYPL 150 | 37.65 | 06/08 | |||||
SCO 20 | 89.28 | 05/13 | |||||
HL 1000 | 3.95 | 05/03 | |||||
MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
NVAX 500 | 5.38 | 04/18 | |||||
SCO 20 | 109.88 | 04/12 | |||||
EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
SUN 300 | 29.50 | 02/23 | |||||
EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
Large Account: Additional trades and stop losses will be Texted and E-Mailed
The new number has been provided. Call Dave Rodgers if there are problems at (832) 236- 3640.
Or Mike King 702 650 3000 ; Charles Moskowitz 781 826 8882
There were two closed option positions one a winner and the other a loser. The TBT July 32 Calls were stopped out on the 50% Rule. 3 of the 6 HL September $ 3.50 Calls were sold on the 100% Profit Rule, leaving 3 lots. The net weekly gain for the options trading was $ 150. For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits increased to $16,590.00.The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted. The Stock table has the following 16 positions: AA, EYES(2), HL, MOS(2), NBGGY, NVAX, PYPL, REPR, SAN, SCO(2),SUN,TEXQY, and TWTR.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically. The money management is based on a hypothetical
$ 100,000.00. We are using a total of $65,092.00 for the 16 open long stock positions. The Open Option Positions require $ 987. This increases the margin requirement to $ 66,079.00, leaving
$ 33,921.00 in cash. Open positon losses decreased by $ 1,567 as stock prices improved. These figures are approximate and there might be errors. We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option | COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
TBT July 32
12 lots |
Calls
0.62 |
06/28/16 | 0.30
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
07/01/2016 | ( $ 384 ) |
AA July 9
8 lots |
Calls
0.54 |
06/27/16 | |||
AA July 9
12 lots |
Calls
0.86 |
06/24/16 | |||
HL Sept 3.50
6lots remain |
Calls
0.85 |
05/03/16 | 1.99
(100% Profit Rule plus Gap ) |
07/01/2016 | $ 684 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
MONDAY |
Independence Day: all markets in the U.S. are closed. Mexico and Venezuela are also closed.
Holders of the London Stock exchange Group vote on a $ 30 billion merger with Deutsche Bourse. A majority of holders are said to back the deal. |
TUESDAY | AZZ AZZ ( 0.65 vs 0.77 ) International Speedway ISCA ( 0.32 vs 0.35 )
10:00 hrs Factory Orders May ( -0.9% vs 1.9% )
U.K. Conservative Party Lawmakers begin balloting to elect a successor to David Cameron as prime minister. The Bank of England releases its half-yearly Financial Stability report.
ltron ITRI 0.34 vs 0.20
|
WEDNESDAY | Walgreens Boot Alliance WBA ( 1.14 vs 1.02 ) Greenbrier GBX ( 1.08 vs 1.49 ) MSC Industrial MSM 1.00 vs 1.03
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 07/02 ( NA vs -2.6% ) 08:30 hrs Trade Balance May ( -$39.5Bln vs -$40.0Bln ) 10:00 hrs ISM Services June ( 53.3 vs 52.9 ) 14:00 hrs FOMC Minutes Markets in many Muslim countries are closed for the end of Ramadan.
Marvell MRVL ( 0.09 vs 0.25 ) NantKwest NK ( -0.13 )
|
THURSDAY | Exterran Corporation EXTN ( -0.27 ) PepsiCo PEP ( 1.29 vs 1.32 )
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts June ( NA vs -26.5% ) 08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change June ( 152K vs 173K ) 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 07/02 ( 268K vs 268K ) Continuing Claims 06/25 ( NA vs 2120K ) 09:45 hrs Chicago PMI June ( 50.8 vs 49.3 ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 07/02 ( NA vs 37bcf ) 11:00 hrs Crude Inventories 07/02 ( NA vs -4.053Mln Bbls ) U.S. President Barack Obama travels to Warsaw to attend the 2016 NATO summit. Barracuda Networks CUDA ( 0.11 vs 0.09 ) Helen of Troy HELE ( 1.11 vs 1.06 ) PriveSmart PSMT ( 0.70 vs 0.70 ) VOXX Intl VOXX ( -0.10 vs -0.03 ) WD-40 WDFC ( 0.86 vs 0.75 )
|
FRIDAY |
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls June ( 175K vs 38K ) 08:30 hrs Nonfarm Private Payrolls June ( 170K vs 25K ) 08:30 hrs Unemployment Rate June ( 4.8% vs 4.7% ) 08:30 hrs Hourly Earnings June ( +0.2% vs +0.2% ) 08:30 hrs Average Workweek June ( 34.4 hrs vs 34.4hrs ) 15:00 hrs Consumer Credit May ( $15.3Bln vs $13.4Bln ) Bond markets close early ahead of the July 4th weekend U.S. Oil Rig Count decreased last week. Nat Gas rig count was unchanged at 90. The oil rig count rose by 11 to 341 making a total US rig count of 431. Crude closed at $ 48.99 Up $ 1.35 for the week. Natural Gas closed the week at $ 2.987, plus 0.293.
|
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
Stocks surprised with a huge upside rally making a complete reversal of the shellacking taken on the Brexit news the last Friday-Monday combination. Last Friday’s 610 DJIA point plunge (–3.4%) was the worst day of 2016 (3) and the worst loss since August 24, 2015. S&P 500 shed 3.6% on that day and was also its worst day of 2016. NASDAQ dropped 4.1% and you have to go all the way back to August 2011 to find a worse NASDAQ day. Friday’s declines spilled over to Monday, triggering the fifth Down Friday/Down Monday of 2016.
The Dow and S&P 500 both regained most of the lost momentum. The Dow for example had lost 870.63 points the previous Friday and Monday combined only to recover 809 of those points stopping short of the highs made June 23rd, the day before Brexit. The S&P Index had shed 79.54 points the previous Friday/Monday combination only to regain 65.54 of those points.
The Nasdaq acted in a similar fashion regaining 278 of the 316 points lost. What remains is the challenge of last Thursday’s highs in all the indexes, which need to be taken out for a continuation of the most recent bull trend. The Russell 2000 closed at 1156.77, just 16 points below its close on June 23rd. All the above indexes regained closing levels above their 13,50 and 200 day moving averages.
Unfortunately, the DJ Transportation average failed to perform as well.
The DJT ( 7557.62 ) + 237 points or + 3.24% for the week only was able to close above its 13-day moving average and remains well below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages which is a huge negative. The DJT is the leader and did not respond as well to the bullish fundamental news.
The market is overbought after an interesting week. Next week is likely to be dull and without much help from the bullish seasonality, probably down a little. Terrorism and political uncertainty remain major hurdles. No matter how these occurrences are analyzed, the result is destructive with DJIA frequently lower sometime during the next 90 calendar days. Sometimes the declines are nearly immediate while other time there will be a bounce first.
DJIA’s streak of four straight down Friday’s (4) also confirms that traders and investors are both reluctant to hold long positions over the weekend and negative concerning the economy. This is because of a lack of confidence in the economic fundamentals which seem to be improving with the beginning of summer.
The June ISM report revealed increases in all component indexes, with the exception of the Prices Index, which fell from 63.5 to 60.5. Manufacturers are paying higher prices for raw materials, althogh price escalation slowed in June. Consumer Confidence was buoyant jumping to 98 from 92.4 in May.
The Dollar Index ( DYXO: 95.64 ) was up just 0.10 points at the end of the thumultuous week. The greenback rally was stymied right at its 200 day moving average around 96.50.
The Brexit turmoil has pushed central banks of major economies to adopt a more dovish stance to their already benign policies. The FOMC July increase is most likely off the table, and also now potentially one increase, down from two, is possible for the second-half of 2016. If the markets are to go higher there is a need for at least a whiff of inflation and for Fed officials to lay off the rate hike scenarios.
The lower the yield, the lower the returns investors get from their bonds. That’s important because in periods where yields are near zero, many investors prefer to buy gold rather than bonds. In this manner, in the current stock market turmoil, part of the money that would normally go to assets paying a yield is going to gold and silver instead.
A milder interest rate rising curve than previously anticipated is a plus for the stock market, and supportive of valuations. This is coming at a time of relative business expansion and optimism.
The weaker greenback is helpful for US exporting companies, and also supports dollar-denominated oil prices, which have been trying to anchor at the $50/barrel mark, on the world markets. A stable energy sector at the present levels, after a decline of nearly two years, is favorable for the broader stock indexes.
The above chart shows long Euro/short dollar. As long as the greenback stays below 112 dollar, weakness can continue which will help support stocks, farm products and commodities. Companies like Mosaic ( MOS: $ 26.57 ) would benefit from a continuation of a lower dollar.
Let’s do a quick recap of the state of affairs of the EU and the Euro to see if it makes sense that the dollar should weaken versus the euro. The EU just lost one of its most powerful countries. Spain and Italy are threatening to secede. Greece is on last gasps and likely will require further funding to remain solvent. EU banks are also limping with high debt and non-performing loans. The EU was just downgraded by S&P. The fourth largest European bank Deutsche Bank ( NYSE:DB $ 13.91 ) was called “the most important [global] contributor to systematic risk” by the IMF and failed the Fed’s stress tests.
We would look for a place to buy DB. The downside risk seems very limited.
The dollar is already up about 20 percent since mid-2014. It is a key reason the global economy has slowed down since this time. The dollar’s strength is weighing down dollar bloc countries (like China) that peg to the dollar as well as causing problems for all those external debtors holding a whopping $10 trillion in dollar denominated debt. The dollars ongoing strength, in my view, is the biggest threat to the global economy.
Another big Canadian bank is expanding into the U.S. The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM), or CIBC as it is colloquially known, announced that it is expanding into the United States with an agreement to buy U.S. commercial bank PrivateBancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:PVTB). CIBC is Canada’s fifth-largest bank as measured by loans, assets, and market capitalization. The deal helps reposition CIBC from primarily a Canadian domestic lender, opening up far greater exposure to the U.S. economy for the bank. It also ends months of speculation about CIBC’s strategy for diversifying outside Canada. Canada’s Big Five banks dominate the domestic banking and wealth management sectors, and are contending with the prospect of rising credit losses from energy-sector lending and sluggish economic growth due to the commodities price rout. This is pushing the banks to expand into the U.S. to seek new customers and further diversify their lending activity, as earnings growth from domestic lending slows.
CIBC’s move into the United States follows a similar strategy of Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY $ 59.20 ). RBC announced in early 2015 a $5-billion deal to acquire Los Angeles-based City National Bank, which focuses on commercial and high-net-worth clients. The deal was completed late last year, making it the largest deal in RBC’s history.
In addition, Bank of Montreal (NYSE:BMO), owner of Chicago-based BMO Harris Bank, acquired a U.S.-based finance business from General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) in December, while Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE:TD), which spent $17 billion building a U.S. retail banking network, has shifted in the last three years to buying U.S. credit-card portfolios.
CIBC announced the definitive agreement to acquire PrivateBancorp for $3.8 billion (C$4.9 billion) on Wednesday. It will finance the transaction with 60% stock and 40% cash mix. CIBC will issue 29.5 million common shares and use $1.5 billion in cash. The bank expects to maintain a common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio at closing of at least 10%. After closing, CIBC expects to have a Basel III leverage ratio above 3.8% and liquidity ratios to exceed regulatory minimums. The bank expects to maintain its dividend payout ratio at the top end of its 40% to 50% target range, but guided to a combined-bank ROE in the mid-teens, versus CIBC’s current target of 18% to 20%.
The following stocks appear reasonable to buy on dips, minor reactions, with stops of course: Cambrex ( CBM: $ $ 51.75 ) A O Smith Corporation ( AOS $ 87.21 ) Thor Industries ( THO: $ 69.18 ) Worthington Industries ( WOR: $ 42.01 ) LGI Homes ( LGIH: $ 32.84 ) Hecla Mining ( HL: $ 5.65 )
Treasuries Continue to Skyrocket:
Every year when the days get long and the temperature rises on Wall Street, we always hear those infamous buzzwords, the “Summer Rally.” No-one ever thought that bonds could soar like they have which has remarkably shrunk U.S. interest payments on the huge debt. This could have a positive effect on equities as well. The weak dollar has done nothing to stem the tide of foreign money making its way to America even at a time when nations are in dire need of capital.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The third estimate for first quarter GDP showed output increasing at an annual rate of 1.1% (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%), up from the second estimate of 0.8% and the advance estimate of 0.5%. The Implicit Price Deflator was down to 0.4% from 0.6%.
The upward revision in the third estimate was driven largely by exports increasing more than previously estimated. That boosted the contribution from net exports to the change in GDP from -0.21 percentage points to 0.12 percentage points. That change in net exports negated the drag from the revised contribution level for personal spending from 1.29 percentage points to 1.02 percentage points.
Small upward revisions to government spending, the change in private inventories, and fixed investment helped account for the remaining difference. Final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in inventories, increased from 1.0% to 1.3% with the third estimate.
Category | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 |
GDP | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
Inventories (change) | $68.3B | $78.3B | $85.5B | $113.5B | $112.8B |
Final Sales | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | -0.2% |
PCE | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
Nonresidential Inv. | -4.5% | -2.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
Structures | -7.9% | -5.1% | -7.2% | 6.3% | -7.6% |
Equipment | -8.7% | -2.1% | 9.9% | 0.3% | 2.3% |
Intellectual Property | 4.4% | -0.2% | -0.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
Residential Inv. | 15.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% |
Net Exports | -$546.8B | -$551.9B | -$546.1B | -$534.6B | -$541.2B |
Export | 0.3% | -2.0% | 0.7% | 5.1% | -6.0% |
Imports | -0.5% | -0.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 7.1% |
Government | 1.3% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | -0.1% |
GDP Price Index | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
The third estimate for first quarter GDP should not be regarded as the basis for any change in economic sentiment. The report itself is quite dated considering it is being released two days before the end of the second quarter. Second, the report featured a downward revision to personal spending. Third, it still points to a very weak period of growth in the first quarter. And fourth, it is virtually meaningless for a market that is now consumed with what the third and fourth quarters will look like following the Brexit vote.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 98.0 in June from a downwardly revised 92.4 (from 92.6) in May. The June reading was well ahead of the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which was pegged at 93.1, and is the highest level for the index since last September. The uptick in June was driven by an improvement in both the Present Situation Index, which increased from 113.2 to 118.3, and the Expectations Index, which rose from 78.5 to 84.5.
The Conference Board noted that expectations regarding business and labor market conditions, as well as personal income prospects, improved moderately.
This report offered a nice headline surprise, although its relevance is diminished considering the survey was mailed and responses were collected prior to the Brexit vote, which if there is any relevance, will show in the next confidence report in July.
Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
Conference Board | 98.0 | 92.4 | 94.7 | 96.1 | 94.0 |
Expectations | 84.5 | 78.5 | 79.7 | 83.6 | 79.9 |
Present Situation | 118.3 | 113.2 | 117.1 | 114.9 | 115.0 |
Employment (‘plentiful’ less ‘hard to get’) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
1 yr inflation expectations | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
The ISM Index for June at 53.2 was a huge unexpected surprise. That was above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 51.4 and a huge increase from the May reading of 51.3.The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0.
The June report revealed increases in all component indexes, with the exception of the Prices Index, which fell from 63.5 to 60.5. That’s not a bad development. Manufacturers are still paying higher prices for raw materials, although the price escalation slowed for them in June.
Looking elsewhere, there were encouraging pickups in the New Orders Index (from 55.7 to 57.0), the Production Index (from 52.6 to 54.7), the Backlog of Orders Index (from 47.0 to 52.5), the New Export orders Index (from 52.5 to 53.5), and the Employment Index (from 49.2 to 50.4).
This report shows that the manufacturing sector continued to operate in an expansion mode in June for the fourth straight month. That’s a welcome understanding in a market environment where growth slowdown concerns are evident. Keep in mind that the ISM is a survey based on purchasing managers and not hard data; nonetheless, there is value in the recognition that the ISM Index has been above 50.0 for four months running now.
Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
Total Index | 53.2 | 51.3 | 50.8 | 51.8 | 49.5 |
Orders | 57.0 | 55.7 | 55.8 | 58.3 | 51.5 |
Production | 54.7 | 52.6 | 54.2 | 55.3 | 52.8 |
Employment | 50.4 | 49.2 | 49.2 | 48.1 | 48.5 |
Deliveries | 55.4 | 54.1 | 49.1 | 50.2 | 49.7 |
Inventories | 48.5 | 45.0 | 45.5 | 47.0 | 45.0 |
Export Orders | 53.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.0 | 46.5 |
Prices paid (not seas adj) | 60.5 | 63.5 | 59.0 | 51.5 | 38.5 |
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Market Strategies Cycles
Leading up to Brexit markets were held back by concerns that Britain would leave the EU. Then a few days prior consensus was that the UK would stay in the EU and the markets rallied smartly. Then when everyone was wrong on Friday morning, markets around the world sold off sharply for two days. Then when Article 50 and the logistics of leaving made it apparent that nothing would happen soon, markets rallied back toward pre-Brexit levels.
There is some buyer’s remorse from those that voted for Britain to exit the EU. Political leaders in the EU have expressed anger and encouraged a swift exit. Yet citizens across the Union have also expressed interest in leaving. At the same time there is a political vacuum in Britain with no clear successor to the outgoing, resigning Prime Minister Cameron. One only needs to Google Panama Papers Cameron to notice his relationship which had to be politically destructive.
Meanwhile, despite a sharp two-day selloff in global equities last Friday and Monday, the market now appears rather unfazed after having been heavily sold for two days.
Perhaps as is often the case, all the fear of the dire consequences of a British exit from the EU are quite overblown. Of course there are risks, but there are always risks. Remember this vote is non-binding it is just a recommendation by the voters to Parliament that 52% of them would like to leave the EU and 48% want to stay. It still remains to be seen if Brexit will actually happen and if it does how detrimental it will be to the UK, EU and global economies and markets. However, we believe it will proceed and the UK will leave the EU.
Stock Trader’s Almanac, probabilities and strategies, proved to be correct this past week. The Brexit event happened in the “Worst Six Months” and we came in to the situation positioned defensively and will remain so through the balance of summer and into the early fall. Market weakness this June was not emblematic of the usual more bullish election year June scenario. The inability of the market to log new all-time highs and gain any ground this June, or this year for that matter, underscores the lack of upside drivers in the near term.
As the UK and the EU figure out what the heck they are going to do, and the US hunkers down for the battle for the White House to heat up, we are dealing with an alarming increase in terror attacks around the world. All this has the market on edge and primed for a further correction this summer. After the snapback rally from the Brexit shock recedes and early-July seasonal bullishness dissipates, look for more volatility probably lower prices and a test of the 52-week lows over the next four months.
Psychological: Troubled. The polls got it wrong and the market paid too close attention only to be shocked by the actual Brexit vote outcome. And the Fed just pulled a 180. Weekly stats, like the most recent Investor’s Intelligence Advisor Sentiment survey has been too bearish. Bearish consensus stood at just 33.4% last week before improving to 35.2%. Bullish sentiment improved to28.9% up from just 22% the previous week. Neutral choices came down 5% to 37.7% in the latest week.
Fundamental: Mixed. Arguably the case could be made that fundamentals are actually, in fact, improving. Consumer Sentiment is improving and the ISM report was constructive. Low interest rates will continue to provide support.
Technical: Recovering. The Brexit vote outcome hit global markets like a freight train. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all suffered their worst day of 2016 last Friday and for NASDAQ it was the worst day since August 2011. However, no new lows were made and the market is bouncing back. DJIA and S&P 500 and Nasdaq reclaimed their respective 50 and 200-day moving averages. Further upside is likely to be limited as heavy resistance exists just below all-time highs.
Monetary: 0.25-0.50%. At the Fed’s last meeting, just before the Brexit vote, it flip-flopped again on interest rates. Previous hawkish statements were sweep away in favor of a far more dovish tone. Lowered growth forecasts, a weakening labor market and inflation well below target were the dominant factors cited. Any future rate increases will be gradual and lower rates are most likely sticking around longer.
Seasonal: Bearish. July is best month of the third quarter for the DJIA and S&P, but performance for the other two months, August and September, makes comparisons easy. Recent “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 72, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016). Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.3%, 6th worst; S&P 0.2% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -1.3% 2nd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.9%
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Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.36 )*
Fourth quarter preliminary net revenues will exceed $3.2 million, representing a slight increase over the $3.1 million of the previous quarter. Sales are led by the Company’s proprietary infusion products. The Company’s fiscal year ended February 29, 2016.
Andy Sealfon, Company President and CEO commented, “The military has expressed interest in our products for utilization in emergency applications as well as use in VA hospitals. We believe that because of our performance standards and the reliability of our products, we will provide them with great value and benefits.”
The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and the newer FreedomEdge™ Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
NHIA is a trade association representing the interests of entities providing infusion and specialty pharmacy products and services to home-based infusion patients.
The Company’s website is www.rmsmedicalproducts.com.
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 5.45 )
The stock moved from approximately $5 a share to approximately $6.50 from May 1 to early June. If you look at the chart pattern of the stock the big volume came in on May 9 which coincided with the Louis Navellier recommendation that I sent to you on that date. He recommended 5 stocks of which 3 (including Enzo) all had similar chart patterns with significant increases in trading volume. I don’t know how much of that volume came from individual investors but the buying had lots of 100-500 share trades which tells me that individuals, not Institutional investors were strong buyers of Enzo.
During the same time frame the Russell Index probably started to see some front running by Index funds or ETF’s to take a position into Enzo’s stock as they looked to be included in the Index. These funds mirror the Russell Index. The Russell is a two edged sword. The positive edge is that for Enzo it probably means 2-3 million shares will be bought. Enzo was included in the 2000 and 3000 Russell Index on June 10.
The Russell will hedge their long positions by shorting the stock against their long position to go neutral if they think the market shows weakness or if the fundamentals of the company change. If you remember when Enzo was removed from the Index a couple of years ago the short position was 4 million plus shares and the day Enzo was removed the shorts delivered their long position against the short to flatten the position. The short position on that day dropped to 1 million shares. Enzo had a conference call on their third quarter release last week and I didn’t see any change in the fundamentals. However those individual investors that bought on the Nave
llier recommendation don’t know the Company and saw that they reported a loss for the quarter (even though they beat estimates) and may have taken profits.
The market in general was down 5 straight days and the index’s that got long the stock may have shorted to hedge their position. That can be confirmed on the first two week short report due out next week. The short position at the end of May was 937,000 shares down from the mid- month short of 1,010,700.The stock has come down some 15% from its high which is not a big deal. To me it is just a technical move.
The stock is approaching oversold territory and as the fear grows the opportunity becomes bigger. The fundamentals haven’t changed and in fact have become stronger with the latest AmpiProbe approval. Enzo has cash of $50 million and no debt. There are 7 more cases to get settled in Delaware which can provide significant additions to the cash position. AmpiProbe will have more submissions to the New York regulatory agency this year. AmpiProbe is cheaper, better and faster than existing technology and that is a $3 billion market.
This is an awesome potential for a 47 million share company and who knows what will happen if the NIH has positive statements on their Optiquel test for Uveitis. The stock is 50% owned by Institutions and funds, 15% by insiders and I guess 10% by hedge funds. That leaves some 11 million shares in the float. If the Russell causes 2-3 million shares to be bought the float then become 8-9 million shares. Good news can really move the price.
Gold Mining USA OTC: GMUI ( 0.01 )*
Has both mining activities in Australia and the U.S. Gold Mining USA Inc is an emerging natural resources company focused on developing metallurgical and mining projects. The Company’s business model is to acquire projects with the potential to provide significant resources through exploratory drilling and generate value through their development, joint venture or divestment. GMUI has a team of experts who will manage all mining operations available on their website. In addition GMUI has an Offtake Agreement with a prestigious Swiss-based Gold buyer and Refiner to purchase its gold production at the spot price at the London Bullion Market ( LBMA ) on the day gold is collected.
Australia and Nevada provide the opportunities to exploit smaller, undeveloped or previously mined gold resources that are of no interest to the large mining companies. In addition, there are numerous small hard rock and alluvial gold mines which have viable gold resources but are unable to raise the funds to start up or continue operations.
The company has signed an ongoing agreement with Cardno, a professional infrastructure and environmental services company, to assist in the evaluation and implementation of a work program on one of its North America properties. Steve Craig, a well-known Certified Professional Geologist, will be heading up the efforts on the project.
An initial target acquisition, Mt Tymn, provides an opportunity to enter the gold mining arena in Australia on a small scale with the confidence of total outlay recovery and good profits, sufficient to expand operations by acquisition of similar nearby deposits to continue positive cash flow mining and commence an exploration program capable of even greater rewards.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OTCQB:OGES 0.40) *
Oakridge global energy is a developer, designer and manufacturer of proprietary energy storage solutions. The Company is based out of Florida’s “space coast” near Kennedy Space Center. They make premium quality, proprietary batteries, battery systems and lithium ion cells that are built for maximum performance over the traditional lead/acid batteries. OGES, proudly manufacturing in America since 1986, produces batteries for military, consumer, government, and industrial applications. Target market priorities include golf cars and other recreational vehicles, electronics, and devices requiring rechargeable batteries.
Oakridge Energy produces highly reliable, sustainable and dependable batteries for mobile power sources. Based on size and weight, OGES products deliver a higher capacity than comparable competitor batteries. OGES batteries are higher in quality, longer lasting and safer to use. These batteries have undergone and passed rigorous military testing in underwater and aerial vehicles proving to be high/low pressure tolerant. Most significant, OGES batteries are superior performing yet competitive in the market.
Martac Maritime Tactical Systems, Inc., MARTAC recently conducted very successful field trials on the Inter-coastal waterway in Palm Bay, Florida. MARTAC is a Melbourne, Florida based company that designs and produces the Man-Portable Tactical Autonomous Systems (MANTAS) that can reach extreme high speeds and operate anywhere in the world. These vehicles are designed to be used in numerous applications including naval fleet protection, mine warfare, port and harbor security patrol, antipiracy, search and rescue, and many others. shows our high quality and high performance gets us into the military space at a time when made in USA is of critical strategic importance.
Freedom Trucks shows that Oakridge can outperform Tesla and the “Tesla of trucks” – trucks are much more difficult and laborious to power than cars – because of the Oakridge high power high energy
dense batteries, we need only 180 OGES batteries to power the interstate truck that pulls an
80,000 lb trailer, whereas it would take 208,000 Tesla/Panasonic
Lithium ion batteries deliver twice the energy of nickel cadmium batteries and are the fastest growing battery segment. Their growth and demand dynamically forward trending. They are lightweight and easy to maintain. They deliver superior electro-chemical output and provide highest energy density for weight, non-metallic and are rechargeable. In 2015, the OGES Pro Series golf car was launched at the annual PGA show, the largest golf show in the world. OGES plans to have a new factory producing its patented thin film solid state lithium ion batteries by 2017. OGES is commencing delivery of a small format prismatic to help several smart card customers reach the next generation. Their growth will be serviced by the new factory. These batteries are also in a rapidly growing demand for a variety of applications.
Oakridge has recently continued expansion of its ISO certified manufacturing facility and warehouse in Palm Bay, with the support of Florida Governor Rick Scott. The new facility represents a $270 million investment, increasing the size of the manufacturing plant to 70,000 sq-ft to accommodate the growing demand for OGES batteries. Production is expected to increase from 250,000 to 25 million cells per year by 2018. The company’s growth will provide 1000 Americans with new jobs; this is part of the company’s commitment to support domestic employment. Overseas, Oakridge Global Energy Solutions Limited (Hong Kong) is a subsidiary company that operates for sales and service in Asia.
iSIGN Media Solutions Inc ( ISDSF: $ 0.104 )
is public company trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture market under the symbol ISD (TSX-V: ISD), and in the United States on the OTC under the symbol of ISDSF. The web site is www.isignmedia.com
iSIGN is a Software as a Service (“SaaS”) company whose US patented software (patent # 8,781,887 B2, received in July 2014) is a unique ‘push and pull’ technology that utilizes Bluetooth and Wi-Fi to ‘push’ messages in any language to mobile devices within a 300 ft (100 meter) radius of our technology, while gathering valuable information from the interaction of our technology with mobile devices within range of our hardware. Recently one of the largest insurance companies in the world categorized the smart antenna as a security device and has given an amusement park a 15-20% discount on their insurance premiums. Please go to “ priority posts” to view recent events.
Recently, a major North American insurance company has categorized the smart antenna as a safety and security device which will open new markets for iSIGN especially in amusement centers, malls and commercial real estate projects.
Through iSIGN’s reseller, We Build Apps, an installation of approximately 500 Smart Antennas into Crocker Park, a roughly 78 acre shopping complex in Ohio, consisting of retail stores, restaurants, residential apartment buildings and office building is close to be signed This complex is managed by Stark Enterprises who manage a total of 16 properties. The potential is for an expansion into the other properties who can also achieve a reduction in their insurance premium costs.
Technology Overview
The patented and proprietary technology does not involve apps and related downloads in order to receive and view messages and, as messages are delivered by Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, is capable of interacting with all cell phones including I Phones and androids. The second hardware unit, the Smart Player, contains all the features of the Smart Antenna, while adding the ability to manage content on digital screens at the same time.
eHealth Consortium Group in Australia Update / June 22, 2016
According to our reseller, JEA Technologies, eHealth Consortium Group’s intention is to start installations in hospitals located in the State of Victoria. Installations into hospitals located in the States of New South Wales, Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and Australian Capital Territory would follow later.
As advised by JEA, the State of Victoria has a population of 4.6 million people and has 24 major government owned and operated hospitals in the Melbourne Metropolitan area, as well as 11 private hospital corporations.
The projected number of Smart Antennas per hospital, ranges from 10 to 15, which will be determined once site surveys at each hospital are completed. Installations are expected to be in: (i) each public entrance, installed into the entrance’s digital signage or the hospital way finding kiosks (information systems that guide people through a physical environment and enhance their understanding and experience of the space); (ii) the public food courts of the hospital’s cafeteria areas; (iii) the Accident & Emergency departments where there are long waiting times; and (iv) public waiting areas.
The total number of Smart Antennas for the 35 hospitals in the State of Victoria is expected to be from a minimum of 350 to a maximum of 525 for these hospitals and would increase as installations expand into the other 7 States. iSIGN revenues will be derived from the sale of the Smart Antenna units as well as the monthly data management/message broadcasting fees.
Previous Developments
In late October 2015 iSIGN signed a Licensing/Original Equipment Manufacturer Agreement with Rich Multimedia Technologies (“RMT”) to integrate iSIGN’s Smart Antenna into RMT’s Tele-Digital Store Front Kiosk (essentially a digital signage kiosk). iSIGN will receive a licensing fee based on built units and will also receive a data management fee once the Kiosk is activated. The total fee per Kiosk is $3 US per day. RMT is immediately constructing 5,000 Kiosks for Mexico (airport, transit system and government offices) and has a roll-out plan for a further 3,600 Kiosks into various international airports in the US and Canada by the end of calendar 2016. Based upon a $3 US per day per kiosk fee, the revenue opportunity from this one installation is $9.417 million annually, once all 8,600 Kiosks are build and activated. The profit margins are 60-70 percent of revenues. Rich Multi Media is presently in five airports in the United States and is presently integrating approximately 600 Isign’s Smart Antenna in all there kiosks.
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to buy and they have done well.
The table is hypothetical. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below.
Kroger ( KR: $ 35.18 ) was bought at $ 35.71 and has looked good.
We bought the HOG at $ 45. The pattern completely reversed crossing above the 13, 50 day m.a.
Buy Enzo Biochem with a 40 cent risk.
The HDGE should now be bought.. The HDGE goes Up when the market goes Down. It is a good hedge against long positions. We bought and were stopped out.
We are still interested in the Flushing Financial and finally bought FFIC at our theoretical buy limit.
Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
|
DY | Dycom | Materials. Construction Cell Towers internet Infrastructure | 25 | 1.1 | 2.7B | 89.11 | 86.71 | 84x |
BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 129.69 | Sell Short
132.95 06/09
|
134.40x
Try to sell
|
KR | Kroger | Processor and Retailer Foods | 15 | 0.31 | 34B | 36.35 | 35.71
6/14/16 |
Stop not entered |
HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 5.44 | 3.95 | 4.27x |
FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 19.72 | 19.10 | Finally bought after patiently waiting many months |
SUN | Sunoco | Oil and Gas Refining and marketing | 10 | 0.2 | 2.1B | 29.29 | 29.50 | Long again |
AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 9.55 | 7.05 | Sell
|
SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies | 16 | 1 | 4B | 29.32 | 27.30 | 30x stopped out at 30 |
HOG | Harley Davidson | Motorcycles and related products | 11 | 1.32 | 8B | 54.25 | 45 bought June 10th
|
new stop at 46 |
CHD | Church & Dwight | Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer | 25 | 3 | 10.6B | 102.31 | 79.80
01/26/16 |
Sold at 94.20 |
T | AT&T | Communications | 36 | 1.54 | 211.7B | 43.47 | 34.10 | 37.78x |
VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.44 | 30.30
Bought |
Merging with Alaska |
ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 5.97 | 6.05
Originally bought at $ 2.78 8/24/15 |
5.48x |
BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | Buy on a close above 13.34 | 13.10 | 13.80x stopped out 6/10 |
HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 10.47
|
Bought at 10.40 on 06/20 | 10.17x
Stop below the 13 D M.A. |
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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