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Where To Invest Now For High Returns
November 14, 2016 Newsletter in .pdf Format
November 14, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Where To Invest Now For High Returns
Where To Invest Balanced Investing Strategies
To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc.
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest Now For High Returns Newsletter Covering:
Where To Invest November 2016
Investing Trade Alerts
Text Message Investing Alerts
Options Trading Service
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Stocks To Buy With Stops November 2016
Proven Trading Profits
Results From Recent Text Message Investing Trade Alerts:
340% Profits on SIG November 85 Calls in 10 Days
93% Profits SPY November 9th 212 in 3 Days
100% Loss on SPY November 11th 210 Puts in 2 Days
58% Profits on SPY November 2nd 214 Puts in 9 Days
109% Profits on SPY November 2nd 214 Puts in 8 Days
58% Profits on SPY November 2nd Puts in 3 Days
55% Loss on SPY Oct 28th Puts in 5 Days
123% Profits on SPY Oct 19th Puts in 2 Days
300% Profits on SPY Oct 12th Puts in 2 Days
15% Profits on SPY Oct 19th Puts in 2 Days
50% Loss on LMT Calls in 1 Day
45% Profits on SFM Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on LULU Calls in 8 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 5 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
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Options Trading Service
Investing Trade Alerts
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
There are no Open Positions
Week 45 was a good one right from the start. We moved to the long side on Friday (11/4) the 9th day down for the S&P500. The up open on Monday gave us the first gain of the week of $460 on the SPY calls. After playing the short side of SIG from the $130s all the way down to the 90s and again from the $115 area to the $80s we sat on the sidelines and decided it was time to try the long side, so we paid $ .95 for some 11/85 calls on 11/1.This week’s move from $81 to $91 gave us some great gains. On top of that, we got lucky and before the 100% Up- rule trigger could go off, the options gapped to $2.67, and we sold the balance Friday on a text @ $5.70. Total return, $1,294 gain on $380 invested, just 440%. The week actually could have been even better since we bought a minor position in the SPY puts on Election Day. When I fell asleep the S&P futures were limit down and the puts were $4 in the money. As we all know, the market rallied hard and instead of the big down open we had a minor down move followed by a 600 point rally in 2 days, 1400 Dow points off the Tuesday night low to close at new all-time new highs…..Is this a great market or what???
So, the gain for the week was $1,512 bringing our YTD gains to another new high of $9,525. We closed the week without any open positions and that was by design. I will be spending a long weekend in front of the charts. There are a lot of very overbought looking stocks, and there are many that simply haven’t participated yet. The question of why the big names of the QQQ are acting so poorly is more complex than the talking heads make it out to be. In my opinion, the pressure is off the need to buy “hyper-growth” if there is strong consistent growth around at more reasonable multiples. It also doesn’t hurt that we may finally be seeing some of the cash on the sidelines might be coming out of bond and moving into stocks. The A.A.I.I. survey confirms that with the decline in the neutral number from over 42% to under 32. This was a drop all the way back to its long term average. We are now back to average in all sentiment indicators.
I also think it has a lot to do with the fact that if the new President can really help businesses with lower taxes and regulation, more reasonable repatriation of the massive pool of funds held overseas, and create an infrastructure program with those taxes and create some real job growth, then we will have a much healthier economy across the board. It’s a big job and it won’t take long to see if he just liked the idea of becoming the President, or if he’s actually up to the job. CAM
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Options Trading Service
Investing Trade Alerts Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 11/11 | 2 Lots Expired Worthless November 11th 210 Puts | 242 Loss | |||
| 11/11 | Sold 2 SIG November 85 Calls | 5.70 | 1140 | 950 Gain | |
| 11/09 | Sold 2 SIG November 85 Calls
( 100% up Rule + Gap ) |
2.67 | 534 | 344 Gain | |
| 11/08 | Bought 2 SPY November 11th 210 Puts | 1.21 | 242 | ||
| 11/07 | Sold 4 SPY November 9th 212 Calls | 2.39 | 956 | 460 Gain | |
| 11/04 | Bought 4 SPY November 9th 212 Calls | 1.24 | 496 | ||
| 11/01 | Bought 4 SIG November 85 Calls | 0.95 | 380 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
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Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
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Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.44 )*
For the quarter ended August 31st, net revenues were $3,147,930 compared with $3,166,177 in the comparable quarter last year. REPR had strong organic growth both domestically and internationally in the quarter as well as new customer wins, which are expected to continue going forward. Results were masked by the non-recurring contribution from a large clinical trial last year. Net revenues increased in Q2 compared with Q1 of the current fiscal year by 5%.
For the six months ended August 31st, net revenues were $6,138,096, an increase of 5.9% compared with $5,796,722 for the same period last year, driven by increased sales of infusion products to existing customers as well as the addition of new customers.
For the three months ended August 31st, gross profit was $1,954,592 compared with $2,006,729 for the same period last year. RMS continues benefiting from lean manufacturing initiatives to streamline operations, which have resulted in increased capacity and decreased direct assembly labor costs, as well as the moratorium on the medical device tax. For the six months ended August 31st, the gross profit margin increased 2.6% to 63.4%, up from 60.8% for the same period last year. Gross profit for the six months ended August 31st was $3,891,404 compared with $3,524,589 for the comparable period.
RMS continues to incur professional fees related to regulatory and litigation and has made significant investment over the last twelve months in its sales, regulatory and operations management to help launch RMS to the next level of growth. As a result, the Company reported for the quarter ended August 31st, a net loss of $82,612, compared to net income of $335,214 in the same period last year. For the six months ended August 31st, net loss was $315,928 compared with net income of $270,574.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 6.62 )*
The activity in Enzo Biochem has shown it to be a rock star in the Biotech arena. Prior to the election the Biotech index was trading in Bear Market territory with many stocks having given up 50% or more from their 12 month highs. Enzo is up 47.56% for the year and up 56.6% for 12 months. The Relative strength index is close to 70 which is getting into overbought territory.
A small pullback would not be a bad thing to move stock from weak to strong hands. Why this may not happen: Announcements of new product approvals from the New York regulatory agency for new Ampiprobe products filling in the pipeline for Women’s Health Care Products. A Scientific Paper on Enzo’s new line of products to allow for a more precise interpretation of tumor biopsies.
NIH announcement of results on their multi year trial using Enzo’s Optiquel for the treatment of Uveitis and Macular Degeneration.
Updates on the Litigations in Delaware.
The last earnings report showed a cash position in excess of $65 million with no debt to speak of and a positive cash flow from their operating divisions. The only cash burn is coming from Litigation expenses and a bit from Research and Development. Litigation in Delaware is on a contingency basis as such Enzo is not on the hook for billable hours. To my knowledge there are 6 suits left after 6 have settled.
When the company gets a 500 million dollar market cap ($10.63)they will qualify for those Institutions that can’t buy microcap stocks. A significant number of Institutions will look to be buyers and with only 47 million shares issued and Institutions already owning 50% and insiders owning 15% that leaves less than 17 million shares in the float.
Pressure BioSciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.30 )*
PBIO has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market. PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules. Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction, homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure BioSciences Inc is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. ( NGTF.0.29 )*
Night Food is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night Food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient.
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed. Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested. Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods.
There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals. Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week.
More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
iSIGN Media Solutions ( ISDSF: $ 0.09 )
Announces Signed Contract Between We Build Apps and a Major Shopping Complex Located in Ohio. The contract covers installation of 500 Smart Antennas into a first Shopping Complex; Minimum Revenue to iSIGN is $2.7 million Canadian.
Recent news has pushed it above its 30 day moving average and it had exceeded $0.15 Canadian on a high volume breakout. The stock has been disappointing failing to move above its next resistance at $0.20 and move towards its 2 yr high of $0.28.
The Crocker people and their 22 developments could bring iSign significant revenues. Homeland Security and a major insurance company deemed the smart antenna as a safety device as well as a security device making the potential for new markets is limitless. One deal brings in 3 million times that by 20 deals because the insurance company theoretically gives a 20-25% premium discount to companies that use the smart antenna.
According to the iSign Media reseller, JEA Technologies, eHealth Consortium Group’s intention is to start installations in hospitals located in the State of Victoria.
Leo Motors ( LEOM: $ 0.11 )*
Leo Motors has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN ( Controller Area Network ) based, which enables mobile diagnosing between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
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Fundamental Analysis
Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well.
We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
The Boeing closed over the 50-day M.A. at $ 132 in early October thus suggesting a long position. Defense spending is on the upswing.
We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 with a stop loss at 47.42.
We removed the BIS as it is no longer necessary to hedge the Bristol Myers.
We sold the Amazon short at 828 and covered on the opening November 8th.
We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in the Flushing Financial.
You should have bought the HDGE on a close above 9.65. We paid $ 9.76 on a theoretical buy on the opening Sept 12th. Stop loss raised to $9.99. Or just sell to take profits.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| TPC | Tutor Perini | Construction | 12 | 0.25 | 1.3B | 26.25 | 19.70 | 19.35x |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 13 | 1.6 | 3.6B | 51.90 | 46.15 | 43 |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalogue and Mail Order | 200 | 3.18 | 388B | 739 | 828 Sold Short
10/24 16 |
771.57 covered short 11/7 on opening |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 148.52 | Long at
132 |
Stop at 136.10 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.03 | 6.21 | Try to get Long |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 25.95 | 19.10
06/27 |
19.90x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 29.30 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 29.20
equivalent |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.15 | 30.30
Bought 02/10/16 |
Sell to take profits |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 6.62 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 19.02
|
Bought at 15.42 | 14.60x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 9.61
|
Bought at 9.76 | 9.86 Sold 11/09 sco |
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$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| SPXU 150 | 23.30 | 11/09 | 22.90 11/09 | ( $ 60 ) | |||
| UCO 500 | 8.91 | 11/07 | |||||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| LMT 20 | 233.20 | 10/10 | |||||
| SAM 20 | 156.69 | 10/07 | |||||
| SAM 20 | 151.30 | 09/23 | |||||
| HDGE 300 | 9.76 | 09/12 | 9.86 11/09 | $ 30 | |||
| AA 500 | 10.43 | 07/25 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were two closed out options positions and one expired worthless:
SPY November 9th 212 Calls were sold at $ 2.39 on Nov 7th for a profit of $ 920;
while the November 11th 201 Puts Bought on November 8th at $ 1.21 expired worthless.
The big gain was in the SIG Calls which had been bought on November 1st at $ 0.95 and subsequently sold on two dates:
Nov 9th sold 4 lots making $ 688 and then on Nov 11th sold the balance,
4 lots at $ 5.70 gaining $ 1900.
The net gain in options was $ 3,024, the best weekly performance of the year.
There was one traded stock position, the 150 SPXU’s were bought and sold the same day, Nov 9th losing $ 60.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits gained by $ 2,964 to $25,733.
Open trade losses are down to $ 8,931.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 16 positions:
AA ( 2 ) AMBA, CTL, EYES ( 2 ), HL, LMT, MOS ( 2 ),
REPR, SAM ( 2 ), SAN, TEXQY, TWTR
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
We are using a total of $64,761 for the 16 open long stock positions leaving $ 35,239 in cash.
There are no open option positions.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
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Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| SPY Nov 11th 210 4 lots | Puts
2.39 |
11/08/16 | Expired Worthless | 11/11/2016 | ( $ 484 ) |
| SPY Nov 9th 212
8 lots |
Calls
1.24 |
11/04/16 | 2.39 | 11/07/2016 | $ 920 |
| SIG Nov 85
8 lots |
Calls
0.95 |
11/01/16 | 2.67 Sold 4 lots
( 100% Profit Rule plus Gap)
5.70 Sold Balance |
11/09/2016
11/11/2016 |
$ 688
$ 1900 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
18,847.66 +959.38 +5.36% |
Nasdaq
5237.11 +190.74 |
S&P 500
2164.45 +79.27 +3.80% |
Transportation
8578.65 +503.51 +6.24% |
Russell 2000
1282.38 +118.94 +10.22% |
Nasdaq100
4751.95 +91.49 +1.96% |
| Gold (spot)
1223.50 -79.80 -6.1% |
Silver
1738.2 -98.9 -5.6% |
Crude
43.41 -0.66 -1.5% |
Heating Oil
140.12 -2.91 -2.0% |
Unleaded Gas
1.3053 -0.0733 -5.3% |
Natural Gas
2.619 -0.148 -5.4% |
| VIX
14.17 -8.34 -37.1% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 135/100’s -54/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 61/100’s -19/100’s
|
Bonds
155-05 -8-06 2.91% + 0.35% |
10 Yr. Note
127-05 -3026 1.78%+0.31%
|
Copper
250.90 +24.40 +11.1% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 180.74. -1.76 -1.0% |
Barron’s* Confidence
71.9 +3.7 |
S&P100
958.68 +34.84 +3.77% |
5 Yr. Note
119-162 -1-215 1.50% +0.27%
|
Dollar
98.99 +2.09 +2.2% |
DJ Utilities
627.82 -25.45 -3.90% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
38.9% +15.3%
38.4% |
Bearish
29.3% -5.0%
30.30% |
Neutral
31.8% -10.3%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +8.67% Oct 31st
|
M2 Money
Supply +7.24% Oct 31st
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2118 2195
Dow 18,220 19,000
QQQ 110.20 118.50
Transports 8340 8895
NASDAQ 4935 5395
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This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Aecom Tech ACM ( 0.70 vs 0.95 ) Autohome ATHM ( 0.39 vs 0.35 ) Communications Sales and Leasing CSAL 0.62 Enerplus ERF ( 0.01 vs -1.42 ) Patriot National PN ( 0.27 ) Scorpio Tankers STNG ( -0.12 vs 0.46 ) Transdigm Group TDG ( 3.20 vs 2.83 ) IOC ( -0.37 )
China reports on its monthly industrial production and retail sales.
Advance Auto AAP ( 1.72 vs 1.95 ) China Lodging HTHT ( 3.78 vs 3.49 ) Woodward WWD ( 0.92 vs 0.77 ) DXP Enterprises DXPE ( 0.00 vs 0.32 ) Zoes Kitchen ZOES ( 0.05 vs 0.05 ) |
| TUESDAY | ARAMARK Holdings ARMK ( 0.49 vs 0.44 ) Dick’s Sporting Goods DKS ( 0.42 vs 0.45 )
JD.Com ( -0.36 vs -0.02 ) Home Depot HD ( 1.58 vs 1.36 ) TJX TJX ( 0.87 vs 0.86 ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales October ( 0.6% vs 0.6% ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales ex-auto ( 0.5% vs 0.5% ) 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-ag October ( NA vs 0.4% ) 08:30 hrs Import Prices ex-oil October ( NA vs 0.0% ) 08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing November ( -0.5 vs -6.8 ) 10:00 hrs Business Inventories September ( 0.2% vs 0.2% ). Agilent A ( 0.52 vs 0.50 ) M/A-COM Tech MTSI ( 0.56 vs 0.34 ) Yirendai YRD ( 0.19 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Lowe’s LOW ( 0.97 vs 0.80 ) Target TGT ( 0.83 vs 0.86 ) Baozun BZUN ( 0.47 vs 0.22 )
Hain Celestial HAIN ( 0.56 vs 0.55 ) Jinko Solar Holding JKS ( 0.83 vs 1.04 ) President Obama , Putin, Mark Zuckerberg and others meet in Lima Peru for annual Asia-pacific economic cooperation panel China reports on monthly numbers for both consumer and producer prices. 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 ( NA vs -1.2% ) 08:30 hrs PPI October ( 0.3% vs 0.3% ) CORE PPI ( 0.2% vs 0.2% ) 09:15 hrs Industrial Production October ( 0.2% vs 0.1% ) Capacity Utilization October ( 75.5% vs 75.4% ) 10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index Nov ( 64 vs 63 ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/12 ( NA vs +2.432 Mln Bbls ) 16:00 hrs Net Long Term TIC Flows September ( NA vs $ 48.3Bln ) Cisco CSCO ( 0.59 vs 0.59 ) L Brands LB ( 0.40 vs 0.55 ) NetApp NTAP ( 0.54 vs 0.61 ) Smart and Final Stores SFS ( 0.16 vs 0.22 ) Aegean Marine Petrol ANW ( 0.33 vs 0.25 ) |
| THURSDAY | Best Buy BBY ( 0.47 vs 0.41 ) J.M. Smucker SJM ( 1.92 vs 1.62 ) Staples SPLS ( 0.34 vs 0.35 ) Spectrum Brands SPB ( 1.29 vs 1.13 ) Wal-Mart WMT ( 0.96 vs 0.99 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/12 ( 257K vs 254K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 11/05 ( 2039 vs 2041K ) 08:30 hrs CPI October ( 0.4% vs 0.3% ) CORE CPI ( 0.2% vs 0.1% ) 08:30 hrs Housing Starts October ( 1178K vs 1047K ) Building Permits October ( 1200K vs 1225K ) 08:30 hrs Philadelphia Fed November ( 7.0 vs 9.7 ) 10:00 hrs Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee about the economy 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/12 ( NA vs 54bcf ) GAP GPS ( 0.60 vs 0.63 ) Applied Materials AMAT ( 0.65 vs 0.29 ) Marvell MRVL ( 0.12 vs 0.05 ) Intuit INTU ( 0.03 vs 0.09 ) Post POST ( 0.44 vs 0.06 ) Ross Stores ROST ( 0.56 vs 0.53 ) Salesforce.com CRM ( 0.21 vs 0.21 ) Williams-Sonoma WSM ( 0.77 vs 0.77 ) |
| FRIDAY | Abercrombie & Fitch ANF ( 0.25 vs 0.48 ) Berry Plastics BERY ( 0.59 vs 0.50 )
Foot Locker FL ( 1.11 vs 1.00 ) Destination XL Group DXLG ( -0.05 vs -0.07 ) Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks at a conference on oil and the economy. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans addresses the Community Bankers Association. U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 2 Rigs to 452. The Nat Gas rig count declined by 2 to 115, and there is one rig listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 568. . Crude closed lower at $ 43.41 down $ 0.66.The total rig count is lower by 209 from a year earlier. Natural Gas closed the week lower for the week, off 5.4% at $ 2.619 down $ 0.148. |
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
The stock market enjoyed an upbeat week, rallying despite a surprising outcome in the U.S. presidential election. The S&P 500 gained 3.8% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+5.4%) outperformed and made new all-time highs catapulting to 18,847.66. Domestically-oriented small caps had an even better showing with the Russell 2000 surging a remarkable 10.1%.
Equity indices rallied at the start of the week amid rising expectations that Hillary Clinton would win Tuesday’s election. That sentiment led to another round of gains on Tuesday before the surprising election results were announced in the evening.
Capital markets were startled when it became clear that Donald Trump would come away victorious. However, a huge overnight slide in equity futures gave way to broad-based gains on Wednesday and Thursday.
The upset victory in the presidential race did not change rate hike expectations. Instead, the implied probability of a December rate hike increased to 81.1% from last Friday’s 71.5%, per the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 17888.28 | 18847.66 | 959.38 | 5.4 | 8.2 |
| Nasdaq | 5046.37 | 5237.11 | 190.74 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| S&P 500 | 2085.18 | 2164.45 | 79.27 | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Russell 2000 | 1163.81 | 1281.53 | 117.72 | 10.1 | 12.8 |
Small cap stocks were the best performers for the week. Amicus Therapeutics ( FOLD: $ $ 9.20 ) + $ 3.06 or plus 49.8%; Halozyme Therapeutics ( HALO: $ 12.58 ) + $ 4.12 or + 48.7%; Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical ( RARE: $ 82.06 ) + $ 26.81 or + 48.5%; Prothena Corp PLC ( PRTA: $ 63.60 ) + $ 19.74 or + 45%; Macrogenics Inc ( MGNX: $ 29.69 ) + $ 8.83 or plus 42.3%; Aimmune Therapeutics ( AIMT: $ 25.50 ) + $ 7.57 or + 42.2%; Acceleron Pharma ( XLRN: $ 38.82 ) + $ 1.33 or plus 41.2%; and FibroGen ( FGEN: $ 22.55 ) + $ 6.50 or + 40.5%.
The Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF ( IWM: $ 127.36 ) + $ 11.65 or + 10% made a new high for the year stopping just short of the high close in 2015 at $ 127.85. A week ago, the index came down to test its 200-day price moving average, held on both last Thursday and Friday, before ascending to breaking above both its 13 and 50 day moving averages. More work will be needed at the 128 level to ascertain whether this is a double top or beginning of a new consolidation.
The Blue Chip leaders on the Dow were Goldman Sachs Group ( GS: $ 203.94 )+ $ 28.02 or + 15.9%; JP Morgan Chase ( JPM: $ 76.69 ) + $ 8.93 or + 13.2%; Caterpillar Inc ( CAT: $ 93.01 ) + $ 10.70 or + 13%; Merck ( MRK: $ 63.95 ) + $ 5.13 or + 8.7% and Pfizer ( PFE: $ 32.59 ) + $ 2.59 or + 8.6%. Consumer staple stocks were lower: Procter and Gamble ( PG: $ 83.58 ) – $ 1.50 or -1.8%; Colgate Palmolive ( CL: $ 67.42 ) – $ 1.15 or – 1.7% and Coca-Cola ( KO: $ 41.05 ) – $ 0.66 or – 1.6%.
The underperformance in the Nasdaq was also mostly due to weakness in the generals: Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google were all sold making relatively small losses; but cash from their sales provided funds for purchases of other stocks: Netfix ( NFLX: $ 114.78 ) – $ 7.22 or – 5.9% was the worst. ( AMZN: $ 739 ) – $ 16 or – 2%; Alphabet ( GOOG: $ 754 ) – $ 8 or – 1.1% and falling the least Apple ( AAPL: $ 108.43 ) – $ 0.41 or -0.04%.
The Dow Jones Transportation Index ( DJT: 8578.65 ) + 503.51 or + 6.2% had another great week. It had been the leading index for weeks leading to the general bullishness in the rest of the market.
The US dollar ( DXYO: 99.06 + 2.17 gained 2.2% after having declined the previous two weeks. has recovered to its best close since February 1st. Trump’s economic team is talking about $1 trillion in stimulus between tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The market is more confident of a December Fed rate hike and has begun pricing in a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle.
One of the biggest questions from the market after the triumph of the Republican candidate in the elections is the fate of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Her term as head of the central bank does not end until 2018. Her term as regional governor lasts until 2024, but historically, Chairs usually step down if they are likely to be removed. Donald Trump was critical of the Fed and it is anticipated he will appoint a different leader of the central bank. Chair Yellen will testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee about the economic outlook of the U.S. economy on Thursday, November 17 at 10:00 am EST.
Looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy is the best combination for a currency. After several years of reducing the budget deficit, both Trump and Clinton promised fiscal stimulus. Trump offered more infrastructure spending and tax cuts than Clinton. His economic team will likely suggest a $1 trillion fiscal stimuli (~6% of GDP), which is larger than even Sanders advocated in the primaries.
Volatility ( VIX: $14.17 -8.34 ) plummeted 37% last week after having increased almost 60% for the previous two nervous weeks. Lower volatility is usually bullish for stocks.. The more volatile ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term volatility futures ( UVXY: $ 13.54 ) – $ 6.85 or -33.6% completely collapsed.
Oil fell again last week . Crude closed at $ 43.41, off $ 0.66 or another 1.5% making it minus17% over the past three weeks. Throughout most of October Crude was north of $ 50/bbl. There were three new rigs added in the Eagle Ford, which is a shale oil basin, and is not even remotely profitable at current oil prices. At current oil prices rig counts should decline as it is likely that only the Permian has a break-even scenario. There was a decrease of two natural gas rigs, likely a response to mild weather and the dramatic drop in prices.
Hedging Inflation if necessary, which remains unknown, can be done through TIPS, in the event inflation averages more than 1.5% annually. The Schwab U.S. Tips ETF ( SCHP: $ 55.84 ) has declined to its 200 day moving average which is likely support. The Vanguard Short Term Inflation-Protected Securities ( VTIP: $ 49.52 ) has just broken below its 50 day price moving average and is another alternative.
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Market Strategies Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims produced a positive surprise as they decreased by 11,000 for the week ending November 5 to 254,000 (Briefing.com consensus 262,000). Continuing Claims for the week ending October 29 increased by 18,000 to 2.041 million.
This is the 88th straight week that initial claims have been below 300,000 — the longest such streak since 1970. The four-week moving average for initial claims increased slightly to 260,000, but remains near historically low levels. The key takeaway from the report is that nothing of note has changed on the initial claims front. They remain remarkably low and supportive of solid growth in nonfarm payrolls.
| Category | Nov 5 | Oct 29 | Oct 22 | Oct 15 | Oct 8 |
| Initial Claims | 254K | 265K | 258K | 261K | 247K |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 260K | 258K | 253K | 252K | 250K |
| Continued Benefits | 2041K | 2023K | 2039K | 2054K | |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 2040K | 2042K | 2052K | 2058K |
The four-week moving average of 2.040 million for continuing claims is the lowest since July 1, 2000.
Consumer Credit increased by $19.3 billion in September (Briefing.com consensus $17.5 billion) after increasing an upwardly revised $26.8 billion (from $25.9 billion) in August.
The growth in September was powered once again by a $15.1 billion increase in non-revolving credit, which rose to $2.73 trillion. Revolving credit increased by $4.2 billion to $979 billion.
For the third quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7% after increasing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.3% in September.
The key takeaway from the report is that consumer credit — both revolving and non-revolving — continues to expand, which is a supportive element for the U.S. economy.
| Category | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN | MAY |
| Total Credit | $19.3B | $26.8B | $17.7B | $14.4B | $22.6B |
| Revolving | $4.2B | $5.6B | $2.8B | $9.1B | $4.6B |
| Nonrevolving | $15.1B | $21.1B | $14.9B | $5.3B | $17.9B |
The Treasury Budget for October showed a deficit of $44.2 billion versus a deficit of $136.6 billion in October 2015. The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted, so the October deficit cannot be compared to the $33.4 billion surplus registered in September. Total receipts in October were $221.7 billion while total outlays were $265.9 billion.
Receipts were $10.6 billion more than receipts in October 2015. Total outlays, meanwhile, were $81.7 billion less than the same period a year ago. The 12-month deficit narrowed to $495.0 billion from $587.3 billion in September.
Raw data can be found at: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts1016.pdf
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus | -$44.2B | $33.4B | -$107.1B | -$112.9B | $6.3B |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus Fiscal YTD | -$44.2B | -$587.3B | -$620.8B | -$513.7B | -$400.8B |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus over last 12 months | -$495.0B | -$587.3B | -$529.9B | -$487.2 | -$523.6B |
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Market Strategies Cycles
Election Week has finally come to an end and the markets have made substantial gains, just the opposite of many previous years when the markets were bullish leading up to election- day and then sold off afterwards. This time certainly has been different. The Dow has made new all-time highs at closing the week at 18,847.66 up 888 points or + 4.95%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had soared 371 points or more than 2% on Monday when it became all but certain that Hillary Clinton would win the election. Then on election -day, the Dow added another 73 points to take the index to a high of 18,400.Following the Trump victory Tuesday night in overseas trading the Dow fell 800 points to the 17, 500 level before recovering all the losses and soaring to the 18,590 level gaining more than 1000 points from the Tuesday night lows on Wednesday morning.
In only one respect has this year been similar to past presidential elections. Historically the week before has a bullish bias while two weeks before it was bearish. The market was up the Monday and Tuesday before the election which has also been the trend since 1952. So what does history have to say about after the election?
In the above chart, November’s performance in “All Years” and Presidential “Election Years” over two time frames are compared. Over the more recent era, 1952 to 2012, November’s performance is very similar whether or not it is an election year. By the end of November S&P 500 has averaged right around 1.5%. Extending data back to 1930, S&P 500 performance in November does weaken, but the full-month remains positive.
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Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
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