Where To Invest Now
February 2016
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February 8, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest Now In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest February 2016
Best Stocks To Buy February 2016
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
Gain For The Week $ 994
2016 YTD Profits $ 2295
Over 22% Returns
2015 Over 66% Returns
2014 Over 204% Returns
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
We have One Open Long Position:
6 TLT Feb 128 Puts
Funds in use = $ 684
Week 5 was short on trades and primarily short the market.
We had only 3 trades and one of those was a 50% down loss in the GLD.
The other 2 were great gains in the QQQ puts and SIG puts.
For the week we came pretty close to doubling our entire month of January performance (which wasn’t too shabby).
We netted $994 bringing our YTD performance up to a whopping $2,295 almost 23% in some of the ugliest and erratic market action.
We closed the week with only 1 position in TLT (interest rate ETF) puts…seeking higher rates, and funds in use of $684.
There are several issues at work here and none of them are positive. The path of least resistance is down, and most notable are the massive vacuum of buyers under anything that doesn’t meet even lowered expectations or gives anything but great guidance.
Personally, I believe a big part of the problem is the unexpected consequence of the Dodd/Frank prohibition of “prop” trading. It prohibits banks from trading for their own accounts. In case you didn’t see it back in 2008 or so, many, like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and most of “the street” became banks.
What this means to you is that since they are not as involved, they have no interest or motivation from maintaining an orderly market in the stocks they own. This is similar to the major difference between the NASDAQ market-maker system of decentralized players and the NYSE specialist system. At the NYSE, specialists function to “maintain an orderly market.” There are financial incentives that have nothing to do directly with profits, but rather to limit the financial exposure of these firms. At the NASDAQ, the market makers have nothing but the profit motive at work. If you don’t have the carrot of gain why would you bother to be involved with a falling stock? You just wait for the dust to settle and then come back…or not……..
We’ve had several discussions in this space about “stuff,” being the building blocks of our economy, and the fact that this “stuff” can’t go to zero…and low and behold, basic materials have come roaring back in the past 10 days. Copper, Gold, and other commodities based investments were the standouts this week. I mean really, LinkedIn worth 46% less than last week, and Alcoa worth 12% more??
We are certainly oversold again in many names and approaching important support in many indices and I’m looking to buy any further decline on Monday. There will be no new trades tonight. Use the free texting service for new trades….It’s free, and we’re up over 22% to start Week 6…If you’re not a subscriber, you should be……..CAM
Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
| 02/05 | Bought 6 TLT February 128 Puts | 1.14 | 684 | ||
| 02/03 | Sold 2 SIG February 110 Puts | 3.80 | 760 | 550 Gain | |
| 02/03 | Sold 6 QQQ February 100.50 Puts | 2.08 | 1248 | 468 Gain | |
| 02/02 | Sold 3 SIG February 110 Puts | 1.85 | 555 | 240 Gain | |
| 02/02 | Sold 6 GLD February 105.50 Puts ( 50% Loss Rule ) | 0.44 | 264 | 264 Loss | |
| 02/02 | Bought 6 QQQ February QQQ Puts | 1.30 | 780 | ||
| 02/01 | Bought 5 SIG February 110 Puts | 1.05 | |||
| 01/28 | Bought 6 GLD February 105.50 Puts | 0.88 | 528 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
16,204.97 -261.33 -1.59% |
Nasdaq
4363.14 -250.81 |
S&P 500
1880.05 -60.19 -3.10% |
Transportation
6942.82 +36.06 +0.52% |
Russell 2000
985.62 -49.76 -4.81% |
Nasdaq100
4024.47 -254.70 -5.95% |
| Gold (spot)
1157.80 +41.40 +3.7% |
Silver
1477.8 +53.5 +3.8% |
Crude
30.89 -2.73 -8.1% |
Heating Oil
105.90 -1.97 -1.8% |
Unleaded Gas
0.9927 -0.1396 -12.3% |
Natural Gas
2.063 -0.235 -10.2% |
| VIX
23.38 +3.18 +15.7% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 117/100’s +10/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 78/100’s +14/100’s
|
Bonds
163-08 +2-07 2.68% -0.07% |
10 Yr. Note
130-114 +25 1.85% -0.08%
|
Copper
210.30 +3.60 +1.7% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 161.93 -4.82 -2.9% |
Barron’s* Confidence
68.7 +0.1 |
S&P100
839.77 -28.57 -3.29% |
5 Yr. Note
121-012 +118 1.25% -0.09%
|
Dollar
96.96 -2.57 -2.6% |
DJ Utilities
624.62 +13.27 +2.17% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Long Term Average |
Bullish
27.6% -2.2%
38.74% |
Bearish
34.7% -5.2%
30.30% |
Neutral
37.7% +7.4%
30.96% |
M1 Money Supply
+5.74% Jan 25th
|
M-2 Money
Supply +6.43% Jan 25th
.. |
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 1846 1940
Dow 16,950 16,155 16,663
QQQ 96.70 102.90
Transports 67.48 64.40 7287
NASDAQ 4290 4680
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| UNG 500 | 7.57 | 02/05 | 6.89 x | ||||
| CRM 100 | 64.05 | 02/04 | 61.55 x | 61.55 02/05 | ( $ 250 ) | ||
| SIG 50 | 110.67 | 02/03 | ShortSale | 115.72 02/01 | $ 253 | ||
| SLCA 300 | 16.92 | 01/26 | 17.28 sco | 18.48 02/04 | $ 468 | ||
| SBH 200 | 25.53 | 01/25 | 26.84 01/26 | $ 262 | |||
| KRO 800 | 5.13 | 01/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| APC 100 | 51.21 | 12/10 | |||||
| VA 200 | 36.50 | 12/08 | |||||
| APC 100 | 53.53 | 12/07 | |||||
| LVLT 100 | 50.81 | 11/23 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| CUBA 500 | 7.58 | 09/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| CRM 100 | 72.90 | 04/29 | 66.25 | 66.25 01/28 | ( $ 665 ) | ||
| NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
| BAC. Wts 5,000 lots | 0.7411 | 12/26 | |||||
| BSBR 500
500 |
4.84
3.75 |
12/18
|
|||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| NBGGY 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | |||||
| NBGGY 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were three completed option positions:
The February GLD Feb 105.50 Puts lost $ 528 being stopped out on the 50% loss rule.
The SIG Feb 110 Puts bought at $ 1.02 made a total of $ 1,668, while
The QQQ Puts were also profitable gaining $ 936 for a total profit for the week of $ 2,574 in options.
There were two successful stock trades and one loser:
Silica Holdings ( SLCA ) was bought at $ 16.92 and sold at $ 18.48 for a gain of $ 468.
The 50 shares of Signet Jewelers shorted at $ 115.72 made a profit of $ 253.
The Salesforce ( CRM ) was topped out for a loss of $ 250.
The net for the week in stock trading was a gain of $ 471, which increased the total win for the week to $ 3,045.
The yearly total gain in all closed out trades rose to $ 4,832.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 20 positions:
AA, APC(2), BAC.B.WS, BSBR( 2 ), CUBA, EYES, KRO, LVLT, MOS, NBGGY (3), REPR, SAN, TEXQY, TWTR, UNG, VA
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of $76,588 for the 20 open stock positions. There is one long option position requiring $ 1,368 which totals a requirement of $ 77,956 leaving $ 22,044 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, North American Tankers, Santander, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. We will begin adding them soon.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| TLT Feb 128
12 lots |
Puts
1.14 |
02/05/16 | |||
| QQQ Feb 100.50
12 lots |
Puts
1.30 |
02/02/16 | 2.08 | 02/03/2016 | $ 936 |
| SIG Feb 110
12 lots |
Puts
1.02 |
02/01/16 | 1.85
Sold Half 3.80 sold Balance |
02/02/2016
02/03/2016 |
$ 498
$ 1668 |
| GLD Feb 105.50
12 lots |
Puts
0.88 |
01/28/16 | 0.44 | 02/02/2015 | ( $ 528 ) |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | CNA Financial CNA ( 0.89 vs 0.76 ) Cognizant Tech CTSH ( 0.78 vs 0.67 ) Diamond Offshore
( 0.53 vs 0.72 ) Hasbro HAS ( 1.30 vs 1.22 ) Loews Corp L ( 0.77 vs 0.57 )
21sr Century Fox FOXA ( 0.44 vs 0.53 ) Brookdale Senior Living BKD ( -0.19 vs -0.58 ) Molina Healthcare MOH ( 0.62 vs 0.69 ) Owens and Minor OMI ( 0.49 vs 0.49 ) Owens-Illinois OI ( 0.40 vs 0.46 ) PartnerRe PRE 2.67 vs 4.37 Qualys ( QLYS 0.17 vs 0.15 ) Regal-Beloit RBC ( 1.11 vs 0.82 ) Waste-Connections WCN ( 0.47 vs 0.51 ) Yelp YELP ( 0.12 vs 0.08 ) |
| TUESDAY | Agrium AGU ( 1.38 vs 0.46 ) CDW CDW ( 0.71 vs 0.59 ) Centene CNC ( 0.87 vs 1.74 ) Coca-Cola KO ( 0.37 vs 0.44 ) CVS Health CVS ( 1.53 vs 1.21 ) Goodyear Tire GT ( 0.75 vs 0.59 )
Omnicom OMC ( 1.33 vs 1.30 ) Regeneron Pharms REGN 3.31 vs 2.79 Spirit Airlines SAVE ( 0.97 vs 0.80 ) Tenneco TEN ( 1.14 vs 1.05 ) Viacom VIAB 1.17 vs 1.29 WellCare WCG ( 0.61 vs 0.41 ) Wendy’s WEN ( 0.11 vs 0.10 ) Wyndham Worldwide WYN ( 0.97 vs 0.90 ) 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories December ( 0.0% vs -0.3% )
Akamai AKAM 0.62 vs 0.65 Arch Capital ACGL ( 1.06 vs 1.15 ) Assurant AIZ ( 1.54 vs 0.87 ) Computer Sciences CSC ( 0.69 vs 1.18 ) NCR Corp NCR ( 0.86 vs 0.88 ) Panera Bread PNRA ( 1.78 vs 1.82 ) Regal Entertainment RGC ( 0.33 vs 0.30 ) ScanSource SCSC ( 0.76 vs 0.68 )Disney DIS ( 1.44 vs 1.27 ) Wynn ( 0.78 vs 1.20 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Amtrust Financial AFSI ( 0.67 vs 1.46 ) ARAMARK Holdings ARMK ( 0.49 vs 0.47 ) Axalta Coating Systems AXTA ( 0.25 ) Berry Plastics BERY 0.39 vs 0.27 DTE Energy DTE ( 0.99 vs 1.17 ) Health Net HNT ( 0.66 vs 0.06 ) Henry Schein HSIC ( 1.65 vs 1.56 ) Humana HUM ( 1.46 vs 1.09 ) Owens Corning OC 0.45 vs 0.47 Time Warner TWX ( 1.00 vs 0.98 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/06 ( NA vs -2.6% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 02/06 ( NA vs +7.79 Mln Bbls ) 14:00 hrs Treasury Budget Jan ( NA vs -$14.4B ) Cisco Systems CSCO ( 0.54 vs 0.53 ) Expedia EXPE ( 1.01 vs 0.86 ) Fidelity National FNF ( 0.52 vs 0.50 ) Insight Enterpr NSIT ( 0.60 vs 0.55 ) Mylan Labs MYL ( 1.27 vs 1.05 ) O’Reilly Auto ORLY ( 2.08 vs 1.76 ) Pilgrim’s Pride PPC ( 0.40 vs 0.83 ) Prudential PRU ( 2.30 vs 2.12 ) Service Corp SCI ( 0.37 vs 0.37 ) Sun Life SLF ( 0.88 vs 0.83 ) Tesla Motors TSLA ( 0.09 vs -0.13 ) Twitter TWTR ( 0.12 vs 0.12 ) Whole Foods WFM 0.40 vs 0.46 |
| THURSDAY | Advance Auto AAP ( 1.21 vs 1.37 ) Alcatel-Lucent ALU ( 0.09 vs 0.08 ) Bunge BG ( 1.58 vs 1.20 ) Cenovus Energy CVE ( -0.17 vs -0.78 ) Diebold DBD ( 0.68 vs 0.48 ) First American Financial FAF ( 0.67 vs 0.74 ) Group 1 Auto GPI ( 1.79 vs 1.67 ) Huntsman HUN ( 0.21 vs 0.33 ) Jarden JAH ( 1.19 vs 1.15 ) Kellogg K ( 0.75 vs 0.84 ) Mosiac MOS ( 0.44 vs 0.97 )
Nielsen NLSN ( 0.80 vs 0.81 ) Nokia NOK ( 0.11 vs 0.09 ) Telus TU ( 0.54 vs 0.51 ) Teva Pharma TEVA ( 1.28 vs 1.31 ) Thompson Reuters TRI ( 0.58 vs 0.53 ) 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/06 ( 280K vs 277K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 01/30 ( 2258K vs 2255K ) 08:30 hrs Productivity 4thQtr ( -1;7% vs +2.2% ) Unit Labor Costs Prel 4th Qtr ( + 3.8% vs + 1.8% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/06 ( NA vs -152 bcf ) American International AIG ( -0.92 vs 0.97 ) CBS CBS ( 0.93 vs 0.77 ) DaVita DVA ( 0.97 vs 1.09 ) FireEye FEYE ( -0.37 vs -0.38 ) Groupon GRPN ( 0.00 vs 0.06 ) Liberty Global LBTYA ( 0.04 vs -0.62 ) Republic Services RSG ( 0.49 vs 0.50 ) VeriSign VRSN ( 0.78 vs 0.70 ) |
| FRIDAY | ArcelorMittal MT ( -0.17 vs 0.53 ) Brookfield Asset Management BAM ( 0.47 vs 0.78 )
Calpine CPN ( -0.06 vs 0.54 ) Interpublic IPG ( 0.62 vs 0.57 ) XRAY ( 0.65 vs 0.60 ) 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-ag Jan ( NA vs -1.0% ) Import Prices ex-oil Jan ( NA vs -0.4% ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales Jan ( +0.2% vs -0.1% ) Retail Sales ex-auto Jan ( 0.0% vs -0.1% ) 10:00 hrs Business Inventories Dec ( +0.1% vs -0.2% ) 10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment February ( 92.7 vs 93.3 ) Cameco CCJ ( 0.46 vs 0.52 ) |
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit: PrincetonResearch.com/join.htm
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
The Transportation Index performed well for the second week consecutively being the only major index to show a gain for the week. The S&P 500 closed at 1880.05, down 60 points or 3.10%. It has established a new trading range of 1,870 to 1,940. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Index was again the worst performer:
The DJ Transportation Index ( DJT: 6942.82 ) + 36.06 or +0.52%. The Nasdaq Index ( NASDAQ: 4363.14 ) – 250.81 or -5.44% had the worst weekly performance of all major indexes. Tech stocks were particularly hard hit. In this bear market the optimum strategy has been the selling of rallies as opposite to the Buying of dips that has made money in most prior years.
High PE stocks suffered the most. Netflix ( NFLX: $ 82.79 ) – $ 9.05 or -9.9% declined for the second week after losing 8.8% the previous week. For the new- year Netflix is off a huge $ 31.59 or -27.6%. Linkedln ( LNKD: $ 108.38 ) – $ 89.53 or -45.2% for the week was the catalyst as they put out deleterious forward guidance. The magnitude of these numbers confirms a bear market which hurt many stocks. Alphabet ( GOOG: $ 688.14 ) lost $ 54.81 or 7.4%. Facebook ( FB: $ 104.07 ) – $ 8.14 or -7.2% fell sharply while announcing excellent results.
Volatility remains great as bear market rallies can be huge as we witnessed last Wednesday when the Dow rallied from Tuesday’s close of 16,153.54 to Thursday’s high of 16, 485.84 a gain of 332 points or 2.1%. The Dow ended down 212 points on Friday or 1.29% and 1.59% for the week but has held up much better than either the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. DuPont ( DD: $ 58.89 ) + $ 6.13 or 11.6% was the top performer followed by much beleaguered Caterpillar ( CAT: $ 66.12 ) + $ 3.88 or + 6.2%. IBM, which goes ex-dividend on Monday, rose 3%. Other quality, previously highly regarded rallied stocks were also smashed: Home Depot ( HD: $ 116.43 ) fell $ 9.33 or -7.42%; Nike ( NKE: $ 57.17 ) – $ 4.84 or -7.8%; Microsoft ( MSFT: $ 50.16 ) – $ 4.93 or -9%; McDonald’s ( MCD: $ 115.40 ) – $ 8.38 or -6.8%. Intel lost 6.42% and Pfizer 5%. Below is a chart showing the demise of high PE stocks.
Material stocks rebounded: Alcoa ( AA: $ 8.12 ) + $ 0.83 or + 11.4%, had been up to $ 8.50 benefitted from a weaker dollar. Freeport McMoran ( FCX: $ 5.68 ) added $ 1.08 or + 23.5%. We expect Alcoa to go much higher bear market or not. They have both technology and activist backing.
The Dow Jones Transportation rose in the face of deteriorating airline stocks because of the Zika, a new virus threat, which have some health officials near panic. The Ebola scare caused airline stocks some weakness several months ago and the same attitude affected them last Friday as they declined for no other apparent reason. The effort to cut CO2 greenhouse emissions eliminated the use of DDT which had effectively controlled this disease more easily killing the mosquitos that carry the disease.
Utility stocks continued their ascent. They pay nice dividends and benefit from low energy costs.
The Select sector Utilities Spider ( XLU ) has catapulted to $ 46.57 yields 3.5% and should be bought on any two days down. The buying opportunity is for the next 30 days going by the Trader’s Almanac chart.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 (Briefing.com consensus 188,000).December nonfarm payrolls revised lower to 262,000 from 292,000. November nonfarm payrolls were revised higher to 280,000 from 252,000 Private sector payrolls increased by 158,000 (Briefing.com consensus 183,000). December private sector payrolls revised to 251,000 from 275,000. November private sector payrolls revised to 279,000 from 240,000. November additions were off-set by December deletions.
The Unemployment rate was 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 5.0%) versus 5.0% in December.
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was unchanged at 9.9%. The labor force participation rate was 62.7% versus 62.6% in December. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 26.9% of the unemployed versus 26.3% in December.
Hourly earnings were up 0.5% in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) after being unchanged in December. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5% versus 2.7% in December.
Aggregate earnings were up 0.9%, which should be a positive portent for consumer spending.
The average workweek was up 0.1 to 34.6 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5). January manufacturing workweek was up 0.1 hours to 40.7 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours.
| Category | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT | SEP |
| Establishment Survey | |||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 151K | 262K | 280K | 295K | 149K |
| Goods-Producing | 40K | 54K | 53K | 31K | -12K |
| Construction | 18K | 48K | 65K | 33K | 10K |
| Manufacturing | 29K | 13K | 3K | 2K | -9K |
| Service-Providing | 118K | 197K | 226K | 273K | 174K |
| Retail Trade | 58K | -1K | 52K | 21K | 6K |
| Financial | 18K | 10K | 18K | 11K | 3K |
| Business | 9K | 60K | 48K | 91K | 40K |
| Temporary help | -25K | 25K | 1K | -9K | -13K |
| Education/Health | 6K | 54K | 45K | 78K | 55K |
| Leisure/Hospitality | 44K | 31K | 46K | 53K | 50K |
| Government | -7K | 11K | 1K | -9K | -13K |
| Average Workweek | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Production Workweek | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| Factory Overtime | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Aggregate Hours Index | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Household Survey | |||||
| Civilian Unemp. Rate | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Civilian Labor Force | 502K | 466K | 271K | 229K | -194K |
| Civilian Employed | 615K | 485K | 247K | 255K | -101K |
| Civilian Unemployed | -113K | -20K | 25K | -26K | -93K |
Manufacturers added 29,000 jobs, tied for the best gain since 2012. However, that statistic does not agree with the ISM Manufacturers Survey released last Monday showing factories shedding jobs at the fastest pace since 2009. The ADP Report last Wednesday was not as dismal as the ISM report reporting that factory payrolls were unchanged in January. The prominent headlines from the January Employment Situation Report were mixed, but on balance there were some key developments in the labor market in January that could keep the Fed inclined to raise the fed funds rate again in 2016 which may have been a factor in the deterioration of equities late Friday. The Fed Funds Futures market does not have a rate hike priced in.
Productivity decreased at a 3.0% annual rate. That was worse than the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which called for a 1.7% decline, and the largest drop in productivity since the first quarter of 2014.
Productivity is up just 0.3% year-over-year. Annual average productivity increased 0.6% from 2014 to 2015, with output and hours increasing 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.
Productivity has increased at an annual rate of less than 1.0% in each of the last five years, which helps explain the stagnant growth of the US economy. That is well below the long-term rate of 2.1% from 1947 to 2015. Productivity gains help keep cost-push inflation pressures from rising wages in check. Over the long term, it is productivity gains that provide the increase in output that has led to consistent gains in living standards in free market economies.
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||
| Productivity Q/Q | -3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | -1.1% | -2.2% |
| Unit Labor Costs Q/Q | 4.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 5.7% |
| Productivity Y/Y | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Unit Labor Costs Y/Y | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 2.8% |
Consumer Credit, ex mortgages rose by $21.3 billion in December. Annualized the use of credit swelled by 5.1% the strongest since 2008. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, rose by $ 5.8 billion or + 7.5%. Non-revolving credit, mostly student and auto loans, increased by $ 15.4bil a 7.1% rate.
The Trade gap widened to $ 43.4 billions in December from November’s revised deficit of $ 42.2 bil which is a reflection of the dollar’s strength. Exports fell 0.3% to $ 181.5 bil, while imports rose 0.3% to $ 224.9 bil. The trade gap with China narrowed by $ 3.4 bil to $ 27.9 billions.
Market Strategies Cycles
After closing out an otherwise miserable January on a positive note, the market appears to have run out of gas again here in February. Our January Indicator Trifecta combined with DJIA violating its December closing low does suggest more weakness and volatility are likely.
To gain a better perspective, the following One-Year Seasonal pattern charts were constructed from the other seven years since 1950 that our January Indicator Trifecta was negative across the board and DJIA’s December low was breeched. Seven years is not a large data set, but it is significant enough. Average election year and 2016, through today’s close are also plotted for reference. Should the market trade in similar fashion to the previous negative Trifecta years, it could be early March before the market reaches an interim bottom and makes a tradable, multi-month trek higher.
New Sector Trade Idea
From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016, page 94, Sector Seasonality, there are two sectors that begin their seasonally favorable periods in March: High-Tech and Utilities. Some tech exposure remains in the Almanac Investor ETF Portfolio. Last year, the Utilities sector started off the year on a near chart-perfect bullish climb from the bottom left to the top right. That trend however, only lasted until the end of January.
So far this year, Utilities have been a bright spot with a solid year-to-date gain while many other sectors are currently in the red. Perhaps Utilities could be rallying because interest rates are falling and their dividends are attractive or perhaps they are advancing because global growth and deflation concerns are making the sectors’ highly regulated and stable revenues look like a safe place to park capital. Most likely, Utilities’ success thus far is a combination of these reasons and others.
As can be seen in the following chart of the Utility Sector Index (UTY), seasonal strength typically begins following an early March bottom and usually lasts through mid-October although the bulk of the move is typically done by early May. Seasonal factors combined with the current trend suggest the Utilities still has room to run.
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems, Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.47 )*
Repro Med Systems, Inc. dba RMS Medical Products (OTCQX: REPR) has been one of the best performing stocks in 2016.
They announced that its net revenues for the third quarter ended November 30 for fiscal 2016 increased 18% over the previous year’s Q3, led by the Company’s sales of proprietary infusion products. The Company’s current fiscal year ends February 28, 2016.
Revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 were $3,145,000 compared with $2,655,000 for the third quarter of fiscal 2015. Revenues for the first nine months of the fiscal 2016 were $8,942,000 compared with $7,797,000 for the same period last year, an increase of 15%.
RMS continues to benefit from recent lean manufacturing initiatives, which have resulted in increased capacity and decreased direct assembly labor costs compared to last year. Gross margin improved in fiscal Q3 to 67% from 60% in the same quarter last year, and from 63% in fiscal Q2.
Driven by the strong sales in the quarter, net income for the third quarter was $168,000, an improvement of 81% compared with the same period last year. In addition, net income was negatively impacted due to costs associated with several trade shows in the quarter, the hiring of new sales representatives, and continued legal and consulting fees, all of which reflect an investment for growth in future periods. Excluding certain of these non-recurring items, net income margin would have been in excess of 10% for the quarter.
“We continue to see growth in all sectors of the homecare infusion market both domestically and internationally,” commented Andy Sealfon, President and CEO of the company. “I am also very excited about our newest board member, Cyril N. Narishkin and have appointed him as Interim Chief Operating Office to support our expanded management team and accelerate our growth opportunities. Cyril brings a wealth of experience consulting with companies of all sizes, and will also be instrumental in assisting the Company on its lean initiatives and growth plans,”
Mr. Sealfon added.
The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and our latest FreedomEdge(TM) Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home.
The company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
The Company’s website may be visited at www.rmsmedicalproducts.com.
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales.
The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Immune Therapeutics ( OTCQB: IMUN $ 0.18 )*
Could be ready to go; although down 20% on the week.
This biotechnology company is seeking to commercialize patented therapies in emerging nations that combat chronic, life-threatening diseases by rebalancing the immune system. The trials in Africa are going well.
The value of Naltrexone as an immune modulator was recognized by Dr. Ian Zagon at the University of Pennsylvania.2,3 The late Dr. Bernard Bihari, a Neurophysician from New York, USA (who passed away on May 16th, 2010) began treating his patients in the late 1980s4,5.
Since that time, many doctors throughout the United States prescribe LDN for a number of indications including Multiple Sclerosis (MS), Parkinson’s disease, Crohn’s disease, HIV/AIDS, cancer and other autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
A number of research and clinical trials have been completed and undergone in regards to LDN immunotherapies, with phase I and phase II clinical trials successfully run at a number of universities in the United States and Europe, including Pennsylvania State University Medical School at Hershey; University of Chicago; State University of New York; SUNY Upstate Medical University; London Health Sciences Centre – University Hospital, USA; Alpert Medical School of Brown University; Department of Neurology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute; Division of Rheumatology, St. Louis College of Pharmacy; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah; Jondi-Shapoor University of Medical Sciences; Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center; and Multiple Sclerosis Center at UCSF6.
These efforts were pioneered by leading immunologists Dr. Nicholas Plotnikoff, Dr. Ronald Herberman, Dr. Bernard Bihari, Dr. Angus Dalgleish, Dr. Ian S. Zagon, Dr. Jill Smith, Dr. McLaughlin, Dr. Jacqueline McCandless, and Moshe Rogosnitzky, among others.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. ( OTCQB: OGES $ 0.75) *
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions Inc., is a publicly traded company, trading symbol: OGES on the OTCQB with a market capitalization of approximately USD $ 250,000,000, whose primary business is the development, manufacturing and marketing of energy storage products.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OGES) is an integrated energy storage solutions company that uses state-of-the-art technology in the design, development and manufacture of high-quality cells, batteries, and energy storage systems.
The company’s innovative ‘Made in the USA’ product line includes multiple lithium-ion chemistries, technologies and form factors that are optimized to address four high-demand target markets – motive applications, such as electric and hybrid electric fleet vehicles (especially golf cars and local area electric vehicles), stationary living space power for domestic, commercial and grid applications (homes, businesses, RVs, boats, and uninterruptable power supplies), remote control and portable devices (including medical devices), and also starter motor batteries for motorcycles, jet skis, snow mobiles and boats, as well as cars and trucks.
All the company’s batteries and power systems also have major application to the military, aerospace, marine, medical and telecom sectors generally.
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Dycom we finally were able to buy and were stopped out.
LUV and VA were stopped out with very nice gains.
We bought Virgin Air once again at $ 30.30.
We were stopped out of both the Intel and Kroger with profits. We bought Kroger again.
Continue to buy Bank of America on dips.
We were finally able to get filled on theoretical orders to buy Microsoft and took profits.
Enzo is on our radar just waiting for a much better chart pattern to rebuy. We had originally bought at $ 2.78.
Both Ericsson and Church and Dwight are worth a try at the long side. The HDGE has been a major success for those who believe in hedging. It may be topping out now.
Call 702 650 3000 for questions.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss
Or sold |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 8.12 | 7.05 | 6.77X |
| NFLX | Netflix New Short | Internet Television Network | 300 | 6.25 | 42B | 82.79 | Sell @ 101 | 103.50X |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies | 16 | 1 | 4B | 30.28 | 26.30 | 28x |
| ERIC | Ericsson | Communications Technology | 24 | 1 | 30.3B | 8.76 | 9.32 | 8.48x |
| CHD | Church & Dwight | Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer | 25 | 3 | 10.6B | 86.90 | 79.80
01/26/16 |
77x |
| T | AT&T | Communications | 36 | 1.54 | 211.7B | 35.14 | 34.10 | 32x |
| DY | Dycom Industries | Internet Cable Provider | 28 | 1.10 | 2.5B | 62.49 | 61.54 | 57 stopped out |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Technology Software, Services, Devices | 17 | 4.7 | 431B | 55.09 | 50.90
|
55.09 sold at the 50 DMA |
| KR | Kroger | Food Mfg and Processing | 18 | 0.33 | 37B | 37.63 | 36.76
11/16 |
35.60x |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.5B | 31.35 | 30.30
Suggested buy |
28.50x |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 4.63 | 4.15
2.78 |
3.78x |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 12.95 | 13.56 | 11.90x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 12.33 | Buy 11.68 | 11.46x |
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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Please Direct All Inquiries To:
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