Where To Invest November 2016
Read the November 7, 2016 Where To Invest November 2016 Newsletter in .pdf format – Here
November 7, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Where To Invest November 2016
Where To Invest Balanced Investing Strategies
To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where To Invest November 2016
Investing Trade Alerts
Text Message Investing Alerts
Options Trading Alerts Service
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Stocks To Buy With Stops November 2016
Proven Trading Profits
Results From Recent Text Message Investing Trade Alerts:
58% Profits on SPY November 2 214 Puts in 9 Days
109% Profits on SPY November 2 214 Puts in 8 Days
58% Profits on SPY Nov 2 Puts n 3 Days
55% Loss on SPY Oct 28 Puts in 5 Days
123% Profits on SPY Oct 19 Puts in 2 Days
300% Profits on SPY Oct 12 Puts in 2 Days
15% Profits on SPY Oct 19 Puts in 2 Days
50% Loss on LMT Calls in 1 Day
45% Profits on SFM Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on LULU Calls in 8 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 5 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
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Where To Invest November 2016
Options Investing Trade Alerts
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Funds in use= $876
We are carrying 2 open positions on the long side in SIG (which we have been short on and off since $134) and the SPY which we have also made consistent gains on the short side. The big news is the Cubs won the World Series for the first time in 108 years and the S&P500 has been down 9 days in a row for the first time since 1980. We’re pretty oversold, but not drastically, and the market has had bigger 1 day moves than the total of these past 9 declines. Besides, on many of these days the internals have actually been positive. On Friday for example the NYSE numbers finished as Volume 313 / 257 UP and stocks 1676 / 1236 UP. The NASDAQ had a tough last hour and between 3 and 4PM went from Volume 878 / 663 to 888 / 1036, still not terrible while stocks went from 1700 / 1100 to a still positive 1437 / 1329.
Election issues seem to be clouding the picture, and the biggest of the big industrial names not making topline numbers isn’t helping. Even some of the secondary favorites showed weakness on forward guidance. SBUX traded $55 Thursday night after their earnings hit, but by Friday opened $51.43, traded up to 53.74 and closed 52.75. Oil was a debacle all week with both lower demand and expectations for a small drawdown that turned into the biggest build in history. We sold out SCO position profitably but early.
We are long because there will either be a relief rally, or some commonsense will return to the market place. The A.A.I.I. numbers are absurdly bullish. Bearish is 10% over average, neutral is 34% over average, and Bullish is an astounding 40% under its historic norm. These are not hard and fast rules but when I weigh the evidence, the only conclusion I can come up with is that even if we have topped out and are headed lower, it’s not a straight line down. I’ve been posting charts of the “Bear Flag” for weeks and it has worked exactly as projected, but a move back towards the point of the break around
2120 would be normal and acceptable in an oversold, 9 day down S&P500. The only problem that I see is leadership. Healthcare, financials, industrials and big tech are some-what tenuous, and if Congress decides that drugs are their new ATM, who’s going to lead the march? CAM
Options Investing Trade Alerts Summary
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 11/04 | Bought 4 SPY November 9th 212 Calls | 1.24 | 496 | ||
| 11/02 | Sold 2 SPY November 2nd 214 Puts | 1.97 | 394 | 136 Gain | |
| 11/01 | Bought 4 SIG November 85 Calls | 0.95 | 380 | ||
| 11/01 | Sold 2 SPY November 2nd 214 Puts
( 100% Profit Rule ) |
2.58 | 516 | 258 Gain | |
| 10/28 | Bought 4 SPY November 4th 214 Puts | 1.29 | 516 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
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Where To Invest November 2016
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.40 )*
For the quarter ended August 31st, net revenues were $3,147,930 compared with $3,166,177 in the comparable quarter last year. REPR had strong organic growth both domestically and internationally in the quarter as well as new customer wins, which are expected to continue going forward. Results were masked by the non-recurring contribution from a large clinical trial last year. Net revenues increased in Q2 compared with Q1 of the current fiscal year by 5%.
For the six months ended August 31st, net revenues were $6,138,096, an increase of 5.9% compared with $5,796,722 for the same period last year, driven by increased sales of infusion products to existing customers as well as the addition of new customers.
For the three months ended August 31st, gross profit was $1,954,592 compared with $2,006,729 for the same period last year. RMS continues benefiting from lean manufacturing initiatives to streamline operations, which have resulted in increased capacity and decreased direct assembly labor costs, as well as the moratorium on the medical device tax. For the six months ended August 31st, the gross profit margin increased 2.6% to 63.4%, up from 60.8% for the same period last year. Gross profit for the six months ended August 31st was $3,891,404 compared with $3,524,589 for the comparable period.
RMS continues to incur professional fees related to regulatory and litigation and has made significant investment over the last twelve months in its sales, regulatory and operations management to help launch RMS to the next level of growth. As a result, the Company reported for the quarter ended August 31st, a net loss of $82,612, compared to net income of $335,214 in the same period last year. For the six months ended August 31st, net loss was $315,928 compared with net income of $270,574.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 5.90 )*
The stock moved from approximately $5 a share to approximately $7.00 from May 1 to July. In the last few days Enzo stock has been under heavy pressure. There is nothing fundamental to cause the slide in price. So the business model remains in place and hopefully will add new products over the remainder of the year. They completed the 2016 fiscal year at the end of July and probably had a cash position of some $65 million and no debt to speak of. When the stock cleared the $7 level, the Relative Strength Index was over 70, which is overbought. That $7 number was a 4 year high The last two days has brought the Index close to 30 which is oversold and we should see a bounce in the stock price this week.(just a guess) We have to remember the Russell Indexes that bought close to 3 million shares in late June also shorted close to a million shares as a hedge. That short position declined by some 300,000 shares from July 1 to July 15.
The stock is oversold and the upside opportunity becomes bigger. The fundamentals haven’t changed and in fact have become stronger with the latest AmpiProbe approval. Enzo has cash of $50 million and no debt. There are 7 more cases to get settled in Delaware which can provide significant additions to the cash position. AmpiProbe will have more submissions to the New York regulatory agency this year. AmpiProbe is cheaper, better and faster than existing technology and that is a $3 billion market.
This is an awesome potential for a 47 million share company and who knows what will happen if the NIH has positive statements on their Optiquel test for Uveitis. The stock is 50% owned by Institutions and funds, 15% by insiders and I guess 10% by hedge funds. That leaves some 11 million shares in the float. If the Russell causes 2-3 million shares to be bought the float then become 8-9 million shares. Good news can really move the price.
Pressure BioSciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.29 )*
has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market. PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules.
Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction, homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure BioSciences Inc is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. ( NGTF.0.255)*
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed. Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested. Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods. There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals. Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week. More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
iSIGN Media Solutions ( ISDSF: $ 0.085 )
Announces Signed Contract Between We Build Apps and a Major Shopping Complex Located in Ohio. The contract covers installation of 500 Smart Antennas into a first Shopping Complex; Minimum Revenue to iSIGN is $2.7 million Canadian.
Recent news has pushed it above its 30 day moving average and it had exceeded $0.15 Canadian on a high volume breakout. The stock has been disappointing failing to move above its next resistance at $0.20 and move towards its 2 yr high of $0.28.
The Crocker people and their 22 developments could bring iSign significant revenues. Homeland Security and a major insurance company deemed the smart antenna as a safety device as well as a security device making the potential for new markets is limitless. One deal brings in 3 million times that by 20 deals because the insurance company theoretically gives a 20-25% premium discount to companies that use the smart antenna.
According to the iSign Media reseller, JEA Technologies, eHealth Consortium Group’s intention is to start installations in hospitals located in the State of Victoria.
Leo Motors ( LEOM: $ 0.11 )*
has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN ( Controller Area Network ) based, which enables mobile diagnosing between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
Where To Invest November 2016
Stocks To Buy November 2016
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
The Boeing closed over the 50-day M.A. at $ 132 in early October thus suggesting a long position. Defense spending is on the upswing.
We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 with a stop loss at 47.42. It is necessary to be long the BIS as a hedge because the Biotech stocks are in a strong down trend. Both the BIS and BMY should be held as a “pair trade.”
We sold short the Amazon at 828. Cover shorts at current levels.
We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in the Flushing Financial.
You should have bought the HDGE on a close above 9.65.
We paid $ 9.76 on a theoretical buy on the opening Sept 12th. Stop loss raised to $9.99.
Or just sell to take profits.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| BIS | Ultra Short Biotech | Ultra Short Nadaq Biiotech | 75 Mln | 40.77 | 38 Bought 10/28 | 37.50x | ||
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 12 | 1.5 | 3.5B | 47.02 | 46.15 | 43 |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalogue and Mail Order | 200 | 3.18 | 388B | 755.05 | 828 Sold Short
10/24 16 |
800x |
| BMY | Bristol Myers | Manufacturer
Biopharmaceutical |
28 | 4.8 | 83B | 51.01 | 49.20
10/13/16 |
49.62x |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 139.54 | Long at
132 |
Stop at 136.10 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.46 | 6.21 | Try to get Long |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 21.81 | 19.10
06/27 |
19.90x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 25.20 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 29.20
equivalent |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 53.60 | 30.30
Bought 02/10/16 |
Sell to take profits |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 5.90 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 16.55
|
Bought at 15.42 | 14.60x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 10.14
|
Bought at 9.76 | 9.47sco |
Where To Invest November 2016
Stocks To Buy
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | ||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| LMT 20 | 233.20 | 10/10 | |||||
| SAM 20 | 156.69 | 10/07 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 83.31 | 09/28 | 88.20 11/02 | $ 98 | |||
| SAM 20 | 151.30 | 09/23 | |||||
| SPXU 150 | 24.70 | 09/13 | 25.46 11/04 | $ 114 | |||
| HDGE 300 | 9.76 | 09/12 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 87.22 | 08/16 | 88.20 11/02 | $ 16 | |||
| AA 500 | 10.43 | 07/25 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 23.86 | 07/11 | 25.46 11/04 | $ 320 | |||
| HL 1000 | 3.95 | 05/03 | 6.34 11/02 | $ 1195 | |||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | 0.21 11/01 | ( $ 714 ) | |||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
SCO means Stop Close Only
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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Where To Invest November 2016
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There was one closed out options position:
SPY October 214 Puts were sold on the 100% Profit Rule for a gain of $ 516.
Then on the following day the balance of the position was sold for a smaller gain of $ 272.
There were several closed out stock positions all displayed above. For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits gained by $ 1,545 to $22,769.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 17 positions:
AA ( 2 ) ,AMBA, CTL, EYES ( 2 ), HDGE, HL, LMT, MOS ( 2 ), REPR, SAM ( 2 ), SAN, TEXQY, TWTR
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
We are using a total of $62,247 for the 18 open long stock positions.
There are two option positions, the 8 SPY November 212 Calls requiring $ 992,
and the 8 SIG Nov 85 Calls requiring $ 760 which totals $ 1,752.
This increases the margin requirement to $ 63,999, leaving $ 36,001 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Where To Invest November 2016
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
|
Option |
Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| SPY Nov 4th 214
8 lots |
Puts
1.29 |
10/28/16 | |||
| SPY Nov 2nd 214
8 lots |
Puts
1.18
|
10/25/16 | 1.85 Sold 4 lots
1.89 Sold 4 lots |
10/28/2016
10/28/2016 |
$ 268
$ 284 |
| SPY Oct 28th 213
8 lots |
Puts
1.03 |
10/19/16 | 0.46
( 50% Loss Rule plus Gap |
10/24/2016 | ( $ 456 ) |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Where To Invest November 2016
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
| Dow
17,888.28 -272.91 -1.50% |
Nasdaq
5046.37 -143.73 |
S&P 500
2085.18 -41.23 -1.94% |
Transportation
8075.14 +56.59 +0.71% |
Russell 2000
1163.44 -24.17 -2.04% |
Nasdaq100
4660.46 -145.14 -3.02% |
| Gold (spot)
1275.50 +9.60 +2.2% |
Silver
1779.60 +30.3 +1.7% |
Crude
44.07 -4.63 -9.5% |
Heating Oil
143.03 -12.73 -8.2% |
Unleaded Gas
1.3786 -0.0763 -5.2% |
Natural Gas
2.767 -0.338 -10.9% |
| VIX
22.51 +6.32 +39.0% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 189/100’s -101/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 80/100’s +16/100’s
|
Bonds
163-11 +1-05 2.56% – 0.06% |
10 Yr. Note
130-08 +226 1.78%-0.07%
|
Copper
219.35 +10.50 +5.0% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 182.50. -6.71 -3.6% |
Barron’s* Confidence
68.2 -2.5 |
S&P100
923.84 -21.48 -2.27% |
5 Yr. Note
121-057 +143 1.23% -0.10%
|
Dollar
96.90 -1.45 -1.5% |
DJ Utilities
653.27 -8.72 -1.32% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
23.6% -1.2%
38.4% |
Bearish
34.3% +0.2%
30.30% |
Neutral
42.1% +1.0%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +10.10% Oct 24h
|
M2 Money
Supply +7.50% Oct 24th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Where To Invest November 2016
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2075 2111
Dow 17,595 18,100
QQQ 110.20 116.50
Transports 7965 8195
NASDAQ 4935 5195
Where To Invest November 2016
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Core-Mark CORE ( 0.42 vs 0.65 ) Dean Foods DF ( 0.36 vs 0.30 ) First Data FDC ( 0.34 )
Global Partners GLP ( -0.03 vs 0.16 ) Natl Health Investors NHI ( 0.06 vs 0.14 ) Rockwell Automation ROK ( 1.49 vs 1.57 ) Sysco SYY ( 0.58 vs 0.52 ) WestRock WRK 0.63 vs 0.93 The Federal Reserve releases its senior loan survey 03:00 hrs Consumer Credit September ( $17.5Bln vs $25.9Bln ) Caesars Entertainment CZR ( -0.08 vs -5.44 ) CST Brands ( 0.58 vs 1.12 ) Hertz Global HTZ ( 2.75 vs 0.49 ) Kindred Healthcare KND ( 0.07 vs 0.23 ) Live Nation LYV ( 0.48 vs 0.44 ) Marriott MAR 0.88 vs 0.78 News Corp NWSA ( -0.01 vs 0.22 ) Priceline PCLN ( 29.88 vs 25.35 ) Microchip MCHP ( 0.87 vs 0.66 ) ScanSource SCSC ( 0.66 vs 0.68 ) |
| TUESDAY | CVS Health CVS ( 1.57 vs 1.29 ) DR Horton DHI ( 0.77 vs 0.64 ) Expeditors Intl EXPD ( 0.65 vs 0.62 ) Johnson Controls JCI ( 0.96 vs 1.04 ) Travel Centers of America TA ( 0.34 vs 0.26 )
US Foods USFD 0.36 Westlake Chemical WLK ( 0.90 vs 1.39 ) Valeant VRX ( 1.76 vs 2.74 ) 10:00 hrs JOLTS-Job Openings ( NA vs 5.443Mln ) Voters go to the polls to choose the president as well as senators and members of the House of Representatives.
Amdocs DOX ( 0.89 vs 0.84 ) Ashland ASH ( 1.59 vs 1.62 ) Convergys CVG ( 0.46 vs 0.45 ) Jazz Pharma JAZZ ( 2.59 vs 2.52 ) Middleby MIDD ( 1.26 vs 1.04 ) Performance Food Group PFGC 0.24 Prospect Capital PSEC ( 0.24 vs 0.26 ) Valvoline VVV ( 0.31 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Broadridge Financial BR ( 0.37 vs 0.33 ) CGI Group GIB ( 0.89 vs 0.82 ) DISH Network DISH ( 0.68 vs 0.42 ) Energizer ENR ( 0.50 vs 0.61 ) Magellan Health MGLN ( 1.03 vs 0.76 )
Orbital ATK OA ( 1.39 vs 1.35 ) Viacom VIAB ( 0.65 vs 1.54 ) White Wave Foods WWAV ( 0.38 vs 0.33 ) Wendy’s WEN ( 0.10 vs 0.09 ) Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH ( 1.59 vs 1.35 ) China reports on monthly numbers for both consumer and producer prices. 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 ( NA vs -1.2% ) 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories September ( 0.2% vs -0.2% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/05 ( NA vs +14.420 Mln Bbls )
AMERICO UHAL ( 8.58 vs 9.36 ) CSRA CSRA ( 0.46 ) Energy Transfer ETP ( 0.33 vs 0.10 ) Mylan N.V. MYL ( 1.46 vs 1.43 ) Netease.com NTES ( 3.21 vs 2.44 ) Sun Life SLF ( 0.93 vs 0.78 ) Sunoco SUN ( 0.40 vs 0.81 ) Spartan Nash SPTN ( 0.53 vs 0.49 ) |
| THURSDAY | AstraZeneca AZN ( 0.98 vs 1.03 ) Constellium CSTM ( 0.14 vs -0.43 ) Kohl’s KSS ( 0.70 vs 0.55 ) Macy’s M ( 0.41 vs 0.56 ) Perrigo PRGO ( 1.56 vs 1.76 ) Ralph Lauren RL ( 1.71 vs 2.13 ) QIWI QIWI ( 17.78 vs 18.74 ) Vista Outdoor VSTO ( 0.61 vs 0.63 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/05 ( 262K vs 265K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 10/29 ( NA vs 2026K ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/05 ( NA vs 54bcf ) 14:00 hrs Treasury Budget October ( NA vs -$136.6Bln ) St Louis Fed President James Bullard gives a presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks about the economy. Acacia Communications ACIA 0.84 Darling Ingredients DAR ( 0.16 vs -0.02 ) Esterline Technologies ESL ( 1.61 vs 1.33 ) Michael Kors KORS ( 0.88 vs 1.07 ) Nordstrom JWN ( 0.53 vs 0.57 ) NVIDIA NVDA ( 0.67 vs 0.46 ) Walt Disney DIS ( 1.16 vs 1.20 ) |
| FRIDAY | Brookfield Asset Mgmt BAM ( 0.51 vs 0.48 ) J.C. Penney JCP ( -0.19 vs -0.45 )
Tsakos Energy TNP ( 0.05 vs 0.42 ) The bond market is closed in observation of Veteran’s Day. 10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment November ( 87.9 vs 87.2 )
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks about the economy and monetary policy.
U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 9 Rigs to 450. The Nat Gas rig count rose by 3 to 117, and there are two rigs listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 569. . Crude closed lower at $ 44.07 down $ 4.65.The total rig count is lower by 202 from a year earlier. Natural Gas closed the week lower for the week, off 7.5% at $ 2.767 down $ 0.338.
Atwood Oceanics ATW ( 0.60 vs 2.32 ) |
Where To Invest November 2016
Market Strategies Fundamentals
With the presidential election coming up on Tuesday, participants saw no reason to rush into stocks, especially when confronted with last Friday’s news that the FBI is once again investigating Hillary Clinton after a new batch of emails was uncovered. The news led to a tightening in polls while market participants who had priced in an easy Clinton victory were forced to adjust their positions. However, they were obviously not long the DJ Transportation Index ( DJT: $ 8127.10 ) + 108.55 or + 1.3% which was positive four of the five days last week and its highest close since October 10th.
The busy week also featured the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve, but to no one’s surprise, the central bank held pat, showing little willingness to rock the policy boat ahead of the election. The policy statement did say that the case for a rate hike has strengthened, but the probability of a December rate raise declined, as indicated by the fed funds futures market. The implied likelihood of a December hike ended the week at 66.8%, down from last week’s 74.2%.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 18161.19 | 17888.28 | -272.91 | -1.5 | 2.7 |
| Nasdaq | 5190.10 | 5046.37 | -143.73 | -2.8 | 0.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2126.41 | 2085.18 | -41.23 | -1.9 | 2.0 |
| Russell 2000 | 1187.61 | 1163.81 | -23.80 | -2.0 | 2.5 |
Nasdaq was the hardest hit during the pre-election week malaise. Arconic ( ARNC: $ $ 17.68 ) -$ 10.69 or – 37.7% was the week’s biggest casualty. Yum Brands ( YUM: $ 59.81 ) – $ 25.91 or – 30.2% was second worst. CenturyLink ( CTL: $ 23.05 ) – $ 7.34 or – 24.2%; Endo International ( ENDP: $ 14.98 ) – $ 4.59 or – 23.5%; Frontier Communications ( FTR: $ $ 3.12 ) – $ 0.91 or – 22.6%; and rounding out the losers Pitney Bowes ( PBI: $ 14.24 ) – $ 3.85 or – 21.2%. The weekly leaders: FMC Co ( FMC: $ 52.46 ) + 5.31 or + 11.3%; Archer Daniels Midland ( ADM: $ 46.92 ) + $ 3.33 or + 7.6%; NRG Energy ( NRG: $ 11.03 ) + $ 0.73 or + 7.2% and Patterson Companies ( PDCO: $ 45.76 ) + $ 3.00 or + 7.0%. Patterson was an exception to the deluge in medical stocks.
The underperformance in the Nasdaq was also mostly due to relative weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) lost 2.7% for the week with Amgen (AMGN) falling 9.6% on Friday despite beating quarterly expectations. The Friday weakness in biotechnology was exacerbated by a poor quarterly showing from drug distributor McKesson (MCK -22.4%). The company’s report and guidance reminded that the pharmaceutical industry continues wrestling with pricing concerns that may become a regulatory issue once again, especially if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency.
The Dow Jones Transportation Index ( DJT: 8075.14 ) + 56.59 or + 0.71% had a great week, the only winning index defying all the pre-election bearishness. Avis Budget Group ( CAR: $ 37.73 ) + $ 5.33 or + 16.5% on blow-out earnings. Earnings were 24.7% better and top line revenues beat by 3.1%. Airlines outperformed: Delta Airlines ( DAL: $ 43.88 ) + $ 2.54 or + 6.1% had an impressive week. Southwest Air ( LUV: $ 40.38 ) + 1.20 or + 3.1%; Landstar Systems led the truckers: ( LSTR: $ 72.35 ) + $ 1.85 or + 2.6%. Rails, Fedex and UPS were mostly about unchanged on the week.
The US dollar ( DXYO: 96.90 -1.45 declined 1.5% last week. losing for the second consecutive week after having three previous up weeks. The Greenback has declined 2.14 from its high October 27th losing 2.14 points or -2.2% over election jitters. The loss is almost half of the gain of the previous three months in just one week.
Volatility ( VIX: $22.51 +6.32 ) catapulted 39% last week after having increased 21.4% the previous week making a total increase of over 60% for the two nervous weeks. Higher volatility is usually bearish for stocks. However, the down move in equities has been far less than would have been expected with such high volatility. The more volatile ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term volatility futures ( UVXY: $ 20.39 ) + $ 4.51 or +28.4% increased again, making a total of +40% for the two weeks, but less than the VIX.
Oil was shellacked last week with a more than 9% drop. The heavier dollar was insufficient to offset the poor technicals, record jump in US inventories, and increasing doubts about OPEC efforts to rein in supply. The December futures contract declined by the most since January. The two-week nearly 14% decline collapsed the price to almost $43.50, before closing at $ 44.07 a nearly three-month low.
As investors and decision-makers, it is often required that we make choices without complete information. This is no different. The outlook for next week, if not longer, will likely be a function of the election outcome. The cynics tell us that both alternatives are poor and untrustworthy. Partisans tell us their candidate is superior.
Where To Invest November 2016
Market Strategies Economic Data
Nonfarm and Private Payrolls were both below expectations in October, yet that headline disappointment was offset by the upward revisions for September and the recognition that Hurricane Matthew affected parts of the East Coast during the reference period. The Unemployment Rate was 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 5.0% in September. The average workweek was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4). October manufacturing workweek was up 0.1 hours to 40.8 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161,000 (Briefing.com consensus 175,000). Job gains have averaged 181,000 per month so far this year versus an average of 229,000 per month in 2015. September nonfarm payrolls revised to 191,000 from 156,000. August nonfarm payrolls revised to 176,000 from 167,000. Private sector payrolls increased by 142,000 (Briefing.com consensus 170,000). September private sector payrolls revised to 188,000 from 167,000. August private sector payrolls revised to 132,000 from 144,000.
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.2% of the unemployed versus 24.9% in September. The labor force participation rate was 62.8% versus 62.9% in September.
October average hourly earnings were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) after being up 0.3% in September. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.8% versus 2.7% for the 12-month period ending in September.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Establishment Survey | |||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 161K | 191K | 176K | 252K | 271K |
| Goods-Producing | 0K | 14K | -26K | 14K | -5K |
| Construction | 11K | 23K | -6K | 16K | -6K |
| Manufacturing | -9K | -8K | -16K | 2K | 8K |
| Service-Providing | 142K | 174K | 158K | 207K | 243K |
| Retail Trade | -1K | 22K | 17K | 13K | 22K |
| Financial | 14K | 4K | 18K | 17K | 17K |
| Business | 43K | 78K | 28K | 84K | 48K |
| Temporary help | 6K | 31K | -3K | 16K | 16K |
| Education/Health | 52K | 39K | 56K | 42K | 52K |
| Leisure/Hospitality | 10K | 7K | 10K | 36K | 53K |
| Government | 19K | 3K | 44K | 31K | 33K |
| Average Workweek | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Production Workweek | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.6 |
| Factory Overtime | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Aggregate Hours Index | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Household Survey | |||||
| Household Survey | |||||
| Civilian Unemp. Rate | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Civilian Labor Force | -195K | 444K | 176K | 407K | 414K |
| Civilian Employed | -43K | 354K | 97K | 420K | 67K |
| Civilian Unemployed | -152K | 90K | 79K | -13K | 3 |
The key takeaway from the October employment report is that it should be regarded as a trigger for a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, barring some election upheaval in the capital markets.
The real driver behind the rate-hike expectation is the understanding that average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year. That is the strongest pace since June 2009 and a good sign for the economic outlook
The ISM Manufacturing Index for October checked in at 51.9 (Briefing.com consensus 51.7), up from 51.5 in September. The upside in October was limited by a downturn in the New Orders Index to 52.1 from 55.1. Additionally, the Backlog of Orders Index slipped to 45.5 from 49.5. The Production Index rose to 54.6 from 52.8
The Employment Index moved out of a contraction phase, rising to 52.9 from 49.7
The Prices Paid Index continued to increase, jumping to 54.5 from 53.0. That marked the eight straight month of rising raw material prices.
In a special question regarding the Hanjin Shipping Company bankruptcy, only 0.8% of respondents said it would have a large material impact on their business.
The key takeaway from the report is that the manufacturing sector remains in a state of expansion, although at a relatively modest growth pace. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Total Index | 51.9 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 52.6 | 53.2 |
| Orders | 52.1 | 55.1 | 49.1 | 56.9 | 57.0 |
| Production | 54.6 | 52.8 | 49.6 | 55.4 | 54.7 |
| Employment | 52.9 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 49.4 | 50.4 |
| Deliveries | 52.2 | 50.3 | 50.9 | 51.8 | 55.4 |
| Inventories | 47.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| Export Orders | 52.5 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 53.5 |
| Prices paid (not seas adj) | 54.5 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 55.0 | 60.5 |
Personal Income increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%), Personal Spending increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%), and the core PCE Price Index was up 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). The Personal Income and Spending report for September was mostly in-line with expectations
| Category | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN | MAY |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Disposable Income | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Savings Rate | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Year/Year | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
The PCE Price Index was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year, which was up from 1.0% year-over-year in August and tracking toward the Fed’s longer-run inflation target of 2.0%.
The core PCE Price Index was up 1.7% year-over-year, unchanged from August.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% and real disposable personal income increased less than 0.1%.
The personal savings rate dipped to 5.7% in September from 5.8% in August.
Where To Invest November 2016
Market Strategies Cycles
Gold prices tend to move up prior to the holidays, and the trend has worked especially well over the last 16 years. Seasonally speaking, it is best for traders to go long on or about November 17 and hold until about December 2. Over the last 41 years, this trade has worked 22 times for a modest success rate of 53.7%, the cumulative profit tallies up to $25,220. Up until four years ago this trade had been profitable for 12 straight years (2000-2011). The longer-term history of this trade is not as good, nonetheless profitable. Gold has had a solid year, but this is a short-term trade and gold, however this year has become highly bought during this volatile election year.
The chart below shows the correlation between gold and the exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold (GLD). This fund’s single holding is physical gold bullion. GLD currently holds 945.26 tons of gold giving it a market valuation of approximately $39.5 billion. GLD’s price line has been overlaid on the front-month gold futures contract. The line on the bottom section is the 41-year average seasonal price move for gold with the yellow shading highlighting seasonal strength from mid-November to mid-February. This trade targets the beginning of this seasonal move that typically peaks the first week of December.
In the next chart, GLD is plotted above its stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators. All three of these indicators are positive and near overbought levels. GLD can be bought on dips to the 50 day moving average at about 123.60 risking 100 points to 122.60. GLD is already held in the Stock Trader’s Almanac ETF Portfolio and might add to the existing position, should GLD trade below the buy limit.
30-Year Treasury Bond Slips as Fed Teases Rate Hike
Typically, we see a seasonal tendency for 30-year Treasury bond prices to peak in mid-November to mid-December and then start a decline lasting into April (highlighted with yellow box below). Perhaps investors seeking a higher return feel more comfortable buying into the year-end stock market rally, so they sell bonds and reallocate funds into equities. Or perhaps end-of-year window dressing or savvy traders, wishing to take part in the up-coming January effect, play a role in the decline of bond prices.
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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