March 2, 2015
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2015
Stock Options Trading Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest March 2015
Best Stocks To Buy March 2015
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
2015 Year To Date Profits $ 3,752
Over 37% Returns
2014 Profits = $ 20,443
Over 204% Returns
$20,443 Profits for $10,000 Trading Account
By Following all trades in 2014 a
$10,000 account would be worth $30,443
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Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account Traders Comments
We have five open long positions:
20 ARRY March 9 Calls @ 0.30
10 ARRY March 9 Calls @ 0.18
NAT March $ 10 Calls
RWM March $ 16 Calls and
VJET March 10 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,880
Loss last week $ 350
Week 8 was a small loss on TJX calls that were the topic of discussion in this space last week.
I had not followed the 50% rule and held them into the earnings report Tuesday morning. However,
when the stock bounced up from a low of $65.51 to an intraday high of almost $70 and the options didn’t react; they were sold. The loss of $350 was only $50 more than if I would have just gone with the rule…..The remaining open positions total $1,880 of funds in use and our YTD gain is $3,752.
The $100,000 account had a better week as we had an open position in SLXP from $100.80 that was
taken over at $158. While some think that this kind of trade is “luck” I would point out that we do not trade stocks based on take-over speculation. We do our homework and if you look at our long term record you will find that we have had a couple of take-overs every year.
So, without being partisan, while every politician says that their party isn’t the problem, the parties are exactly the problem. This administration wants only to “play politics” and blame everyone else for our troubles. ISIS’s destruction of religious artifacts is disgraceful and shows who and what we are dealing with in the Middle East. Am I the only one who recalls the troubles we have brought upon ourselves by backing former enemies. Like the stock market, this time is not different. It’s never different. The PM of Israel, our only REAL friend in the area, has been snubbed by the administration not once or twice, but three times…
When will we learn that appeasement is not now, nor will it ever be the correct answer.
I want to draw a distinction to how we operate both of these accounts. We are not market-timers
per se, and we do not keep a set group of stocks and look for the time to buy or sell them. I look at literally 1000 stocks every weekend ( as well as watch the tape from 8:00 AM every morning ) and look for either those in a group that have not yet participated, or groups that have been left behind. I try to see the rotation from group to group searching for trades with the best risk profile.
The rally is getting more and more narrow. This has always been a problem as investors seek to play the momentum and are ill-equipped to see as it wanes. Remember what I said last week about the geopolitical shifts as being the easiest way to turn market psychology. We certainly have enough on that score. Also, while insider selling holds less sway to me, since there are many reasons for it to occur…the main one being preset programs, I don’t feel the same way about a spot secondary to aid insider investors to cash out.
CYBR is the focus of this comment. A new issue around $20 in Sept 2014, hit $70.48 and closed around $60 Friday after announcing a secondary where the Company is selling no stock. No economic advantage to anyone other than insiders who will now sidestep the lockup… If it’s such a great Company, Why ??? Just a thought, but the kind that usually leads to the corrections that have been in short supply.
..CAM
Where to Invest March 2015
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
New Trades:
1) Buy 6 April AA ( Alcoa ) $ 15 Calls @ $ 0.55
2) Buy 4 March S&P 209 Puts @ Mkt
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
02/25 |
Bought 10 ARRY March 9 Calls |
0.18 |
180 |
||
02/24 |
Sold 10 TJX March 72.50 Calls |
0.25 |
250 |
350 Loss |
|
02/23 |
Bought 20 ARRY March 9 Calls |
0.30 |
600 |
||
02/19 |
Bought 8 VJET March 10 Calls |
0.40 |
320 |
||
02/18 |
Sold 5 TLT February 126.50 Calls |
1.10 |
550 |
130 Gain |
|
02/18 |
Bought 5 TLT February 126.50 Calls |
0.84 |
420 |
||
02/17 |
Bought 10 TJX March 72.50 Calls |
0.60 |
600 |
||
02/13 |
Bought 8 NAT March 10 Calls |
0.60 |
600 |
||
02/06 |
Bought 10 RWM March 16 Calls |
0.30 |
300 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
NOTE: In texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity:
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. 1=January, 2=February
Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.
How To Trade Options
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
18,132.70 -7.74 -0.04% |
Nasdaq
4963.53 +7.56 |
S&P 500
2104.50 -5.80 -0.27% |
Transportation
9024.52 -106.64 -1.17% |
Russell 2000
1233.37 +0.13% |
Nasdaq100
4440.67 -2.38 -0.05% |
| Gold (spot)
1212.60 +8.20 +0.7% |
Silver
1651.3 +24.0 +1.5% |
Crude
49.76 -0.58 -1.2% |
Heating Oil
197.37 +6.36 +3.3% |
Unleaded Gas
1.9779 +0.1362 +7.4% |
Natural Gas
2.734 -0.238 -8.1% |
| VIX
13.34 -0.96 -6.7% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 148/100’s +34/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 63/100’s +7/100’s
|
Bonds
147-01 +3-00 2.60% -0.12% |
10 Yr. Note
128-134+1-004 2.01%-0.10%
|
Copper
269.15 +10.05 +4.1% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 224.08 -0.68 -0.3% |
Barron’s* Confidence
78.0% -0.4% |
S&P100
925.47 -1.16 -0.13% |
5 Yr. Note
119-317 +18 1.52% -0.07 % |
Dollar
95.26 +1.01 +1.1% |
DJ Utilities
594.17 -5.89 -0.98% |
| AAII
Confidence Index |
Bullish
45.4% -1.6% |
Bearish
20.3% +2.4% |
Neutral
34.3% -0.8% |
M1 Money Supply
+10.72% February 16th |
M-2 Money
Supply +6.05% February 16th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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Stock Market Investing Strategies
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 2074
Resistance S&P 500 2135
Support Levels DOW 17,780
Resistance DOW 18,185
Support Levels QQQ 105.00
Resistance QQQ 109.50
Support Levels NASDAQ 4860
Resistance NASDAQ 5010
Closes below support triggers sales/above highs buys
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
|||
| ARRY 500 | 8.02 | |||||||
| CALM 150 | 37.17 | 02/23 | ||||||
| UWTI 1200 | 3.55 | 02/17 | 2.87 sco | 2.84 02/26 | ( $ 852 ) | |||
| FORM 500 | 8.56 | 02/13 | ||||||
| NAT 500 | 10.16 | 02/13 | ||||||
| ENZ 1200 | 3.39 | 02/06 | 2.89 | 2.89 02/23 | ( $ 600 ) | |||
| BAC. Wts 5,000 lots | 0.7411 | 12/26 | ||||||
| BSBR 500 | 4.84 | 12/18 | ||||||
| BCRH 300 | 16.84 | 12/18 | ||||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | ||||||
| SLXP 50 | 100.80 | 11/25 | 156.36 02/23 | $ 2778 | ||||
| FB 100 | 74.18 | 11/24 | ||||||
| XCO 1200 | 3.10 | 11/28 | ||||||
| INO 500 | 9.92 | 11/17 | ||||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | ||||||
| FCX 150 | 34.99 | 09/09 | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | ||||||
| XRGYF 5000* | 0.407 | 03/14 | ||||||
| RPTP 400 | 15.37 | 01/16 | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | ||||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | ||||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco | |||||
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Best Stocks To Buy March 2015
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
New Options Trades :
1) Buy 12 AA ( Alcoa ) April $ 15 Calls @ $ 0.55 ( Or Better )
2) Buy 8 March S&P 209 Puts @ MKT
There was one closed long option position, the TJX losing $700.
There were three closed long stock positions:
The Enzo losing $600, the UWTI lost $ 852.
The 50 shares of SLXP gained $ 2,778
The net gain for the week including the option loss was $ $ 626.
One new position was added, the CALM.
For the full year to date, we have gains of $ 13,490.
Open position losses increased to $ 10,315.
There are five long Open Options positions:
Two separate positions of ARRY, one of 40 lots, the other 20; the NAT March 10 Calls
RWM March 16 Calls and the VJET March 10 Calls
The Stock table has the following 20 positions:
AA, ARRY, BAC.B.WS, BCRH, BSBR, CALM, FB, FCX, FORM; INO,
NAT; NBG (3), REPR, RPTP, SAN, TEXQY, XCO, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of
$ 77,160 for 20 open stock positions plus five option long positions requiring
$ 3,760 totaling
$ 80,920 leaving
$ 19,080 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from Apple, JP Morgan, BSBR ( Brazil ), Santander, Blue Capital Reinsurance and others.
Blue Capital issued a special extra dividend of $ 0.66 per share which enabled us to reduce our cost by that amount. In addition it pays about 7% per year in regular dividends.
We do not count commission costs and all trading once again is hypothetical.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
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High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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Options Trading Strategies
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| ARRY March 9
20 lots |
Calls
0.18 |
02/25/15 | |||
| ARRY March 9
40 lots |
Calls
0.30 |
02/23/15 | |||
| VJET March 10
16 lots |
Calls
0.40 |
02/19/15 | |||
| TJX March 72.50
20 lots |
Calls
0.60 |
02/17/15 | 0.25 | 02/24/15 | ( $ 700 ) |
| NAT March 10
16 lots |
Calls
0.60 |
02/13/15 | |||
| RWM March 16
20 lots |
Calls
0.30 |
02/06/15 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Stock Options Trade Alerts
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
Earnings Reports Before the Open on Top of the Row; After the Close are Below the Economics Numbers.
| Monday | Core-Mark ( CORE 0.61 vs 1.28 ) JinkoSolar ( JKS ( 0.91 vs 1.28 ) Magnum Hunter ( MHR -0.21 vs -0.14 ) Ocwen Financial ( 0.42 vs 0.74 ) Scorpio Tankers ( STNG 0.12 vs -0.08 ) Sothebys ( BID 1.28 vs 1.30 )
08:30 hrs Personal Income Jan ( 0.4% vs 0.3% ) Personal Spending ( -0.1% vs -0.3% ) CORE PCE-Prices ( 0.2% vs 0.0% ) 10:00 hrs ISM Index Feb ( 53.0 vs 53.5 ) 10:00 hrs Construction Spending Jan ( 0.2% vs 0.4% ) Caesars Ent ( CZR -1.84 vs -12.83 ) Molycorp ( MCP -0.26 vs -0.28 ) Mylan Labs ( MYL 1.05 vs 0.78 ) Nabors ( NBR 0.39 vs 0.42 ) Palo Alto ( PANW 0.17 vs 0.10 ) |
| Tuesday | Best Buy ( BBY 1.35 vs 1.24 ) Navistar ( NAV -1.17 vs -3.07 )
14:00 hrs Auto Sales Feb ( NA vs 5.5 Mln Units ) Truck Sales Feb ( NA vs 8.1 Mln Units ) Dynamic Materials ( BOOM 0.17 vs 0.02 ) Smith Wesson ( SWHC 0.12 vs 0.35 ) |
| Wednesday | Brown Forman (BF.B 0.87 vs 0.82 ) Diana Shipping ( DSX -0.07 vs -0.12 ) Pet Smart ( PETM 1.38 vs 1.28 ) Trina Solar ( TSL 0.13 vs 0.13 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/28 ( NA vs NA ) 08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change Report ( 220K vs 215K ) 10:00 hrs ISM Services Feb ( 56.5 vs 56.7 ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventrories 02/28 ( NA vs 8.427 Mln Bbls ) 14:00 hrs Fed’s Beige Book March ( NA ) HR Block ( HRB -0.13 vs -0.77 ) Embraer SA ( ERJ 0.92 ) Polypore ( 0.45 vs 0.31 ) |
| Thursday | Costco ( COST 1.18 vs 1.05 ) Joy ( 0.36 vs 0.49 ) Kroger ( KR 0.90 vs 0.78 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/28 ( 295K vs 313K ) Continuing Claims 02/21 ( 2403K vs 2401K ) 08:30 hrs CPI Jan ( -0.6% vs -0.4% ) CORE CPI ( 0.1% vs 0.0% ) 08:30 hrs Productivity-Rev 4th Qtr ( – 2.3% vs -1.8% ) 08:30 hrs Unit Labor Costs – Rev 4th Qtr ( 2.9% vs 2.7% ) 10:00 hrs Factory Orders Jan ( 0.7% vs -3.4% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/28 ( NA vs -219bcf ) Cooper ( COO 1.56 vs 1.47 ) Korn Ferry ( KFY 0.46 vs 0.43 ) Willbros WG .02 vs 00 |
| Friday | Foot Locker ( FL 0.91 vs 0.82 ) Staples ( SPLS 0.30 vs 0.33 )
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls Feb ( 240K vs 257K ) Nonfarm Private Payrolls Feb ( 230K vs 267K ) Unemployment Rate Feb ( 5.6% vs 5.7% ) Hourly Earnings Feb ( +0.2% vs +0.5% ) Workweek Ave Hours ( 34.6 hrs vs Same ) 08:30 hrs Trade Balance Jan ( -$42.0Bln vs -$46.6Bln ) 15:00 hrs Consumer Credit Jan ( $13.0Bln vs $ 14.8Bln ) |
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Last week the dollar was the best performer climbing to 95.25, its best close since August 2003, up 1.1%.
The performance came concomitantly, despite an estimate reduction in GDP to 2.2% from 2.6% for the fourth quarter. Stocks were mixed following new all-time highs in both the Dow and S&P. The Dow reached 18,244, and the S&P 500 2,119.59. Both closed slightly lower, however, the Dow minus 7.74 to 18,132 and the S&P off 5.80 to 2104.50. The Russell 2000 made a new all-time high at 1233.37 and held its gains, closing up 0.13% or 1.58 for the week. Nasdaq was up slightly 7.56 pts or 0.15% but remains below the all-time high of 5,132 reached in May of 2000.
It was a decent week for stocks, mired in deflation led by another decline on oil and resisting headwinds from the ever strengthening greenback. Volatility declined 6.7% back down to the lower levels of the year the VIX closing at 13.34.
The Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings Company’s Board of Directors has declared a special dividend of $0.66 per common share, which is payable on March 13, 2015 to all shareholders of record as of February 27, 2015. This special dividend, coupled with the regular dividends declared during each of the first three quarters of 2014, represents 90.4% of the Company’s “Distributable Income” with respect to 2014. Distributable Income, a non-GAAP measure, has been defined within the Company’s dividend policy to be its net income plus (minus) non-cash expenses (revenues) recorded in net income for the period.
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Market Strategies Economic Data
This was the first reported contraction in the Chicago region since April 2013 and the largest contraction since the index dropped to 42.7 in July 2009. Readings throughout the report were abysmal, and every index, with the exception of supplier deliveries (58.3 from 54.9), contracted in February.
The stronger dollar together with severe inclement weather has had a negative effect on U.S. production levels ( especially dominant in the Midwest ) which contracted as the related index fell to 44.8 in February from 64.1 in January, and ordering conditions do not seem set for a reversal in production growth next month.
The New Orders Index fell to 42.0 in February from 61.6 in January. Unfilled order levels contracted for the second time in three months, falling to 41.1 in February from 51.9 in January. The Employment Index declined to 49.8 in February from 60.1 in January.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index comes out a day before the ISM Index, which is a picture of the entire country. If it is even close to this, the markets will open quite a bit lower.
| Category | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT |
| Chicago PMI | 45.8 | 59.4 | 58.8 | 60.7 | 64.5 |
| New Orders | 42.0 | 61.6 | 59.8 | 61.6 | 69.2 |
| Production | 44.8 | 64.1 | 62.7 | 66.2 | 67.8 |
| Employment | 49.8 | 60.1 | 56.4 | 56.3 | 58.9 |
| Prices Paid | 47.8 | 44.2 | 58.1 | 59.6 | 60.7 |
Stocks and ETF’s bought over the past few weeks:
Notice the Flexibility is gone now as there is no longer positions in the VXX, SPXU or UDOW Both the VIX and SPXU protect against declines while the UDOW and various stocks reflect the long side. We have shown this table for the purpose of being both profitable and somewhat protected for much of the time while maintaining profitable long positions. Please check on the previous weekly market letters if there are questions.
We would sell the UAL on a rally to 71 or a stop below 66.60. Alcoa AA was stopped out. We would like to be long Alcoa . Try to buy a scale down on this move. We remain long Mosaic. Sell the Smith and Wesson on the open Monday.
We remain long the XLV, the Health Care spider with the stop relatively close. In addition we are long the DSX and Scorpio Shippers. ( All trading is hypothetical and intended as guidance)
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss
Or sold |
| XLV | Health Care Spider | ETF | 72.24 | 70 | 68.20sco | |||
| SWHC | Smith and Wesson Holding Corp | Firearms; Handguns Metal Processing | 8.5 | 0.93 | 527.37 | 13.53 | 9.81 | |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum and Metals | 14.30 | 0.8 | 17.53B | 14.79 | 14.57 and again at
14 17 |
12.90sco |
| DSX | Diana Shipping | Dry Cargo Shipping | N/A | 3.7 | 611 | 6.93 | 6.60 | 5.90 |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | Oil Transportation | 26 | 5.6 | 1.47B | 8.66 | 7.46 | 7.48 |
| UAL | United Cont Hld | Transportation | 16 | 1.2 | 18.1K | 65.18 | 46 | 63.45sco |
| VXX | VIX Volatility | Hedge Portfolio | 27.62 | 30.97 stopped out @ 32.50
|
32.50sco | |||
| MOS | Mosaic Company | Agriculture Chemicals | 70 | 2.10 | 15.3K | 53.26 | 42.28 | 43.70 |
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
RMS Medical Systems, Inc ( REPR 0.40)*
Has doubled this year already and can double again.
RMS designs, markets, manufactures portable easy to operate infusion devices, including needles and tubing. It is easy to handle by patients. The Freedom 60 is being marketed in Europe as well as gaining a footing among home-care professionals in America. The RescueVac is used in ambulances and planes for emergency suction.
Southern ITS (SITS: $ 0.125 )*
Southern ITS delivers proprietary innovative electronic security systems to highly regulated market sectors. Such installations include Gaming Properties, Medical Marijuana (MMJ) dispensaries and similar businesses with high compliance mandates. Their systems go beyond simple security and are designed to support their clients in dealing with the expanding burden of compliance and financial auditing. Greeniosk is complete system that allows Medical Marijuana (MMJ) Dispensaries and Recreational Marijuana (MJ) Dispensaries to document and provide an audit and verification trail of each individual MMJ/MJ dispensary transaction.
The majority of MMJ Dispensaries have limited bank service access mainly due to requirements of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO). The Greeniosk system incorporates a large physical ATM Kiosk, with a state of the art CRM reporting system that provides a detailed financial transaction audit trail and addresses and resolves issues of the propriety of the dispensary operations. MMJ Dispensaries currently transact between $250,000 and $5,000,000 in annual revenues. The majority consist of cash transactions, however small numbers of dispensaries accept debit card payments. Because RICO concerns cause the majority of banks to decline dispensary deposits, they also miss out on potential MMJ credit card transactions.
The Grilled Cheese Truck, Inc. (OTCQB: GRLD $ 3.95 )*
Cooks, sells, serves and promotes specialty grilled cheese sandwiches. Since 2009, The Grilled Cheese Truck has been serving areas of Southern California and Phoenix, AZ.
David Danhi is an Executive Chef and began the company after spending thirty years in the food industry.
Grilled cheese is gaining popularity as a classic comfort food right along with pizza. The Grilled Cheese Truck is the only known gourmet food truck that has gone public and is the first and one of the largest gourmet grilled cheese truck in the U.S.
The Company has 13 trucks and growing The Company has 13 trucks and its growth is legendary in L.A.
The Grilled Cheese Truck was one of the premier gourmet food trucks to appear on the L.A. scene 5 years ago. Chef Danhi wanted to capitalize on the growing demand for food trucks and is recognized for his food crafting and grill cheese creations, such as the signature sandwich, “Cheesy Mac and RIB”. The grilled cheese sandwiches are slowly toasted, buttered and crispy, touted as the “ultimate grilled cheese sandwich”.
January ends with the commencement of the Company trading on OTCQB and the introduction of new CEO, Al Hodges. Hodges brings 35 yrs. of operations, management and restaurant experience. He has a track record for success as a performance driven executive who implements successful business plans. From concept to expansion, Hodges has built a series of successful businesses and driven up company value. The Grilled Cheese Truck has become a widely recognized name and has
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: NYSE: $ 3.06 )
We bought Enzo and got stopped out last week. I would be stubborn and try to buy it again basing my belief that the fundamentals will overcome the technical pattern. $ 3.06 is the 13-day moving average. If it can’t close above this number, we can’t be long the stock. F2015 (July) got off to a solid start with Q1 (Oct) results continuing to affirm our belief that Enzo’s core businesses are improving. Once again, revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA were all better than projected, with revenue growth in both the clinical lab and life sciences businesses. Gross margin in both businesses continued to improve, as the ongoing shift toward higher value molecular testing and efforts to improve operational efficiency continue to bolster margins. The company’s balance sheet remains on good footing while catalysts in the form of new products and litigation remain in play. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating and $7 price target.
What keeps us excited about ENZ is (1) a clinical lab which is highly attractive to numerous strategic buyers; (2) a proprietary molecular diagnostic technology that could cut the cost of molecular testing by about 50%; and (3) IP litigation that could yield hundreds of millions of dollars over time
Market Strategies Cycles
Seasonal: Bullish. Normally a decent performing market month, March performs even better in pre-election years. In pre-election years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (January, April and December are better). Pre-election year March has been up 13 in a row for DJIA and 9 in a row for Russell 1000 & 2000. In fact, since inception in 1979, the Russell indices have a perfect, 9-for-9 winning record. Turbulent March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-11.8%) from March 9 to the 22.
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after is the exact opposite, DJIA down 17 of the last 27 years—and frequently down sharply for an average drop of 0.44%. Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007, 6.8% in 2009, and 3.1% in 2011 are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.
Saint Patrick’s Day is March’s sole recurring cultural event. Gains the day before Saint Patrick’s Day have proved to be greater than the day itself and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s usually falls in historically bullish Triple-Witching Week.
Normally a decent performing market month, March performs even better in pre-election years (see Vital Statistics table below). In pre-election years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (January, April and December are better). Pre-election year March has been up 13 in a row for DJIA and 9 in a row for Russell 1000 & 2000. In fact, since inception in 1979, the Russell indices have a perfect, 9-for-9 winning record.
Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.22% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.11% the day after and the day before also averages a 0.22% advance. S&P 500 median values are 0.16% on the day before, 0.23% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.03% on the day after. In the nine years when St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Tuesday, like this year, since 1950, the day before (Monday) produced an average loss of 0.06%, while Tuesday advanced an average 0.77% and Wednesday 0.29%.
| March (1950-2014) | ||||||||||
| DJI | SP500 | NASDAQ | Russell 1K | Russell 2K | ||||||
| Rank | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |||||
| # Up | 43 | 43 | 28 | 25 | 26 | |||||
| # Down | 22 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 10 | |||||
| Average % | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | |||||
| 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle Performance by % | ||||||||||
| Post-Election | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | |||||
| Mid-Term | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.8 | |||||
| Pre-Election | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | |||||
| Election | 0.6 | 0.8 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -2.1 | |||||
| Best & Worst March by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 2000 | 7.8 | 2000 | 9.7 | 2009 | 10.9 | 2000 | 8.9 | 1979 | 9.7 |
| Worst | 1980 | -9.0 | 1980 | -10.2 | 1980 | -17.1 | 1980 | -11.5 | 1980 | -18.5 |
| March Weeks by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 3/13/09 | 9.0 | 3/13/09 | 10.7 | 3/13/09 | 10.6 | 3/13/09 | 10.7 | 3/13/09 | 12.0 |
| Worst | 3/16/01 | -7.7 | 3/6/09 | -7.0 | 3/16/01 | -7.9 | 3/6/09 | -7.1 | 3/6/09 | -9.8 |
| March Days by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 3/23/09 | 6.8 | 3/23/09 | 7.1 | 3/10/09 | 7.1 | 3/23/09 | 7.0 | 3/23/09 | 8.4 |
| Worst | 3/2/09 | -4.2 | 3/2/09 | -4.7 | 3/12/01 | -6.3 | 3/2/09 | -4.8 | 3/27/80 | -6.6 |
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