Read the November 28, 2016 — Where To Invest in December 2016 Newsletter in .pdf format Here
November 28, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Where To Invest Now For High Returns
Where To Invest Balanced Investing Strategies
To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest Now For High Returns Newsletter Covering:
Where To Invest December 2016
Investing Trade Alerts
Text Message Investing Alerts
Options Trading Service
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Stocks To Buy With Stops December 2016
Proven Trading Profits
Results From Recent Text Message Investing Trade Alerts:
340% Profits on SIG Calls in 10 Days
93% Profits SPY in 3 Days
100% Loss on SPY Puts in 2 Days
58% Profits on SPY Puts in 9 Days
109% Profits on SPY Puts in 8 Days
58% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
55% Loss on SPY Puts in 5 Days
123% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
300% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
15% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
50% Loss on LMT Calls in 1 Day
45% Profits on SFM Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on LULU Calls in 8 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 5 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Options Trading Service
Investing Trade Alerts
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
1 Open Position
Long 5 SJM December 130 Calls
Funds in Use = $275
Week 47 was as predicted, a slow grind on low volume that moved us higher. We had only one options trade in each account and that was the Monday purchase of the SJM 12/130 calls @ $ .55 and the Tuesday 100% Up rule liquidation of the first half of the position for a gain of $275. This brings our YTD gains back up to $9436 with only one open position and $275 of funds in use. We also bought 100 shares of the RWM at $ 50.60 in the stock account.
As opposed to the last several months when the majority of neutral and bearish sentiment was over 70-80%, this week’s A.A.I.I. numbers are the opposite. With only 22% bears (27% below long term normal) we now have 78% neutral or bullish. Stocks are now as overbought as they were oversold 3 weeks and 125 S&P500 points ago. This should lead to some pullback, but the market internals just have not gotten anywhere near excessive. Friday we had about even volume and a few more down than up on the NYSE, but more up than down on NASDAQ. Judging by the action in LABU (Biotech ETF) the health and biopharma stocks seem to be coming back to life a bit.
The financials have flattened out a bit as the market is doing the job that the Fed seems to find a new excuse not to do every month, and any move by the highly esteemed group may have little or no effect (or even an anticlimactic one) on the group. This group should just stop mugging for face time to every media outlet that comes their way and do their job. The FOMC minutes are all we need to see who was in favor of what action when they are released. Personally, I’d be in favor of waking up Tuesday morning to find that the Fed announced a rate hike between meetings because they felt it was time. I hate to sound like a dinosaur, but I’ve seen everything from focus on Greenspan’s briefcase to the “net free reserves” serve as a reason for a hike.
All in all the market is seasonally strong and there are plenty of names that have been neglected that are not overvalued. I would focus on companies that have good growth, not necessarily the kind of overvalued hyper-growth with big P/Es. Although I haven’t yet done the homework, I’d bet that stock like ANW (we are long @ $10) that sell at 7X forward earnings and sells for .82% of book would be what I’d be looking for.
Don’t rush to be in, there is always another bus or train or stock if you miss one. The market will pull back and there will be another chance, and at 78% neutral to bullish, everyone is never right.
Have a great week…CAM
Where To Invest In December 2016
Options Trading Service
$10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 11/22 | Sold 5 SJM December 130 Calls | 1.10 | 550 | 275 Gain | |
| 11/21 | Bought 10 SJM December 130 Calls | 0.55 | 550 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
The Boeing closed over the 50-day M.A. at $ 132 in early October thus suggesting a long position. Defense spending is on the upswing. Hold with a suitable stop loss. We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 with a stop loss at 47.42.
We removed the BIS as it is no longer necessary to hedge the Bristol Myers. We sold the Amazon short at 828 and covered on the opening November 8th. We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in the Flushing Financial. You should have bought the HDGE on a close above 9.65.
We paid $ 9.76 on a theoretical buy on the opening Sept 12th. Stop –loss raised to $9.99. Or just sell to take profits.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| TPC | Tutor Perini | Construction | 12 | 0.25 | 1.3B | 27.20 | 19.40
10/31/16 |
24.90x |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 13 | 1.6 | 3.6B | 54.22 | 46.15 | 51.75sco |
| BMY | Bristol Myers | Biopharmaceutical Products | 28 | 5.1 | 94.9B | 56.98 | 49.20
10/17/16 |
55.45sco |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalogue and Mail Order | 200 | 3.18 | 388B | 780.37 | 828 Sold Short
10/24 16 |
771.57 covered short 11/7 on opening |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 150.04 | Long at
132 |
Stop at 147.21 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.03 | 6.21 | Try to get Long |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 26.60 | 19.10
06/27 |
24.65x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 31.70 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 29.20
Equivalent Look to get long |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.60 | 30.30
Bought 02/10/16 |
Sell to take profits |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 7.01 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 20.86
|
Bought at 15.42
9/30/16 |
17.60x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 9.25
|
No Position currently | Buy at 9.56sco |
Where To Invest In December 2016
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.44 )*
My recent visited Medica in Dusseldorf and was warmly received by our RMS Medical Products, reports Andy Sealfon, CEO of REPR. European distributors greeted me with bear hugs, grins, and many personal thanks for making this trip immediately after my travels to Barcelona for ESID. We had enthusiastic discussions as to the impressive growth potential for the UK and Scandinavian regions, and for expansion into Germany. We are working on the formation of a Clinical Advisory Panel for Europe, and our UK distributor has begun conversations with one of the lead nurses in the largest UK hospital.
There is a new application for our High Flo Subcutaneous needle sets for treatment of Parkinson’s disease, which is an entirely new market for us. We have new trials going on all over Europe, and the possibility of one in Russia, in partnership with several pharmaceutical companies. We’ll soon have trials in Germany, Sweden, and probably Italy. We are preparing a new market launch of an addition to our system designed for Facilitated Subcutaneous Immune Globulin (FSCIg) which was subject of a Swedish trial, and was such a hit (human factors study showed 95% out of 100 satisfaction), that patients are lining up and building pressure for us to begin delivery which we are working hard to accomplish. This new system is also under trial in Germany. For the first time patients are able to perform the delivery at home without nursing support. We are working with large Pharma companies to deliver their new drugs to our markets widening the market for our High Flo 24 gauge needles.
We are excited about the individuals that comprise our Europe team. As individuals, they each bring unique talents and collectively I believe they are unstoppable. Chatarina S., Global VP of Marketing located in Sweden, will assist the sales team for the Scandinavian region while still performing marketing and clinical support. Markus D. our super salesperson in Germany is working hard to get our new distributor there up and running. Manal H., based in the USA, is the glue that binds this team together. She is always in the lead initiating new dynamics for the team and the Company. Dr. Sabino Loiodice, who is our new Director of European Sales and Marketing, has great experience along with the ideal European charm, maturity, and a very modern approach to management which embraces coaching, mentoring, and preempting obstacles. I expect great things from this super team!
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 7.01 )*
The activity in Enzo Biochem has shown it to be a rock star in the Biotech arena. Prior to the election the Biotech index was trading in Bear Market territory with many stocks having given up 50% or more from their 12 month highs. Enzo is up 47.56% for the year and up 56.6% for 12 months. The Relative strength index is close to 70 which is getting into overbought territory.
A small pullback would not be a bad thing to move stock from weak to strong hands. Why this may not happen: Announcements of new product approvals from the New York regulatory agency for new Ampiprobe products filling in the pipeline for Women’s Health Care Products. A Scientific Paper on Enzo’s new line of products to allow for a more precise interpretation of tumor biopsies.
NIH announcement of results on their multi year trial using Enzo’s Optiquel for the treatment of Uveitis and Macular Degeneration.
Updates on the Litigations in Delaware.
The last earnings report showed a cash position in excess of $65 million with no debt to speak of and a positive cash flow from their operating divisions. The only cash burn is coming from Litigation expenses and a bit from Research and Development. Litigation in Delaware is on a contingency basis as such Enzo is not on the hook for billable hours. To my knowledge there are 6 suits left after 6 have settled.
When the company gets a 500 million dollar market cap ($10.63)they will qualify for those Institutions that can’t buy microcap stocks. A significant number of Institutions will look to be buyers and with only 47 million shares issued and Institutions already owning 50% and insiders owning 15% that leaves less than 17 million shares in the float.
Pressure BioSciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.29 )*
PBIO has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market.
PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules. Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction, homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure BioSciences Inc is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. ( NGTF 0.41 )*
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed. Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested. Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods. There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals. Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week. More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
Leo Motors ( LEOM: $ 0.11 )*
has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN ( Controller Area Network ) based, which enables mobile diagnosing between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| RWM 100 | 50.60 | 11/21 | |||||
| ANW 500 | 10 | 11/17 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 22.88 | 11/14 | |||||
| UCO 500 | 8.91 | 11/07 | |||||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| AA 500 | 10.43 | 07/25 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There is one open options position:
20 SJM December 130 Calls were bought on November 21st at $ 0.55 and half were sold on the 100% profit rule the next day for a gain of $ 550, which was the total gain for the quiet holiday week. The other half, 10 lots remains open.
There were no closing stock positions.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits gained by $ 550 to $26,998.
Open trade losses increased to $ 13,686.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 16 positions:
AA ( 2 ) AMBA, CTL, EYES ( 2 ), HL, LMT, MOS ( 2 ),
REPR, SAM ( 2 ), SAN, TEXQY,TWTR
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
The options position requires $ 550. We are using a total of $64,761 plus $ 550 for the options which totals $ 65,311 for the 16 open long stock positions, leaving $ 34,689 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| SJM Dec 130
20 lots |
Calls
0.55 |
11/21/16 | 1.10
( Sold Half 100% profit rule ) |
11/22/2016 | $ 550 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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Where To Invest In December 2016
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
19,152.14 +284.21 +1.51% |
Nasdaq
5398.92 +77.41 |
S&P 500
2213.35 +31.45 +1.44% |
Transportation
9044.21 +187.74 +2.12% |
Russell 2000
1347.20 +31.56 +2.40% |
Nasdaq100
4870.02 +61.98 +1.29% |
| Gold (spot)
1178.20 -30.30 -2.5% |
Silver
1647.0 -15.4 -0.9% |
Crude
46.06 +0.37 +0.8% |
Heating Oil
148.62 +1.77 +1.2% |
Unleaded Gas
1.3761 +0.0331 +2.5% |
Natural Gas
3.202 +0.222 +7.8% |
| VIX
12.34 -0.51 -4.0% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 158/100’s +23/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 60/100’s 0/100’s
|
Bonds
152-26 -0.11 3.01% – Flat |
10 Yr. Note
125-064-116 2.36%+0.02%
|
Copper
266.80 +20.05 +8.1% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 185.73. +2.59 +1.4% |
Barron’s* Confidence
73.0 +0.2 |
S&P100
975.25 +12.12 +1.26% |
5 Yr. Note
118-097 -087 1.83% +0.05%
|
Dollar
101.50 +0.29 +0.3% |
DJ Utilities
639.95 +12.67 +2.02% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
49.9% +3.3%
38.4% |
Bearish
22.1% -4.5%
30.30% |
Neutral
28.0% +1.2%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +9.41% Nov 14th
|
M2 Money
Supply +7.52% Nov 14th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2180 2239
Dow 18,648 19,390
QQQ 117.12 119.80
Transports 8620 9195
NASDAQ 5230 5495
Where To Invest In December 2016
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Leju Holdings LEJU ( 0.18 vs 0.16 ) SouFun Holdings SFUN ( =0/08 vs -0.08 )
Cyber Monday, a Big Shopping Day
21 Vianet VNET ( -0.15 vs 0.02 ) Monmouth Real Estate MNR ( 0.18 vs 0.15 ) Shoe Carnival SCVL ( 0.55 vs 0.47 ) Thor Industries THO ( 1.23 vs 0.97 ) ZTO Express ZTO ( 0.74 ) |
| TUESDAY | Bank of Nova Scotia BNS ( 1.51 vs 1.45 ) Berry Plastics BERY ( 0.59 vs 0.50 ) Mallinckrodt plc MNK ( 1.99 vs 1.84 ) Nord Education NORD ( -0.15 vs -0.22 ) RenaSola SOL (-0.17 vs 0.08 ) Tiffany TIF ( 0.67 vs 0.76 ) Tsakos TNP ( 0.05 vs 0.42 ) Valspar VAL ( 1.50 vs 1.35 )
08:30 hrs GDP-Second Estimate 3rd Qtr ( NA vs + 2.9% ) GDP-Deflator-Second Estimate 3rd Qtr ( NA vs + 1.5% ) 09:00 hrs Case-Shiller 20 city Index September ( NA vs + 5.1% ) 10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence November ( NA vs 98.6 ) Autodesk ADSK ( -0.24 vs 0.14 ) China Ed DL ( 0.30 ) Splunk SPLK ( 0.08 vs 0.05 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | American Eagle AEO ( 0.41 vs 0.35 ) Royal Bank Canada RY ( 1.72 vs 1.74 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/26 ( NA vs +5.5% ) 08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change November ( NA vs 147K ) 08:30 hrs Personal Income October ( NA vs +0.3% ) 08:30 hrs Personal Spending October ( NA vs +0.5% ) CORE PCE Price Index ( NA vs +0.1% ) 09:45 hrs Chicago PMI November ( NA vs 50.6% ) 10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales October ( NA vs + 1.5% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/26( NA vs -1.255 Mln Bbls ) 14:00 hrs Fed’s Beige Book November ( NA ) Guess? GES ( 0.14 vs 0.15 ) New York Co NWY ( -0.03 vs -0.05 ) PVH PVH ( 2.40 vs 2.66 ) |
| THURSDAY | Kroger KR ( 0.41 vs 0.43 ) Dollar General DG ( 0.93 vs 0.88 ) Tor-Dom Bank TD ( 1.22 vs 1.14 ) CIBC CM ( 2.49 vs 2.36 ) Genesco GCO ( 0.91 vs 1.40 ) Xcerra XCRA 0.00 v -0.01
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts November ( NA vs -24.7% ) 08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims ( NA vs 251K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Unemployment Claims ( NA vs 2043K ) 10:00 hrs Construction Spending October ( NA vs -0.4% ) 10:00 hrs ISM Index November ( NA vs 51.9 ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/26 ( NA vs -2bcf ) 14:00 hrs Auto Sales November ( NA vs +5.12 Mln Units ) 14:00 hrs Truck Sales November ( NA vs +9.18 Mln Units ) Ambarella AMBA 0.94 vs 1.08 Ascena Retail Group ASNA ( 0.20 vs 0.35 ) Smith & Wesson SWHC ( 0.58 vs 0.25 ) Ulta Salon ULTA ( 1.37 vs 1.11 ) Five Below FIVE ( 0.09 vs 0.08 ) |
| FRIDAY | Big Lots BIG ( -0.01 vs -0.01 ) Fred’s FRED ( -0.18 vs 0.10 )
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls November ( NA vs +161K ) 08:30 hrs Nonfarm Private Payrolls November ( NA vs + 142K ) 08:30 hrs Hourly Earnings November ( NA vs +0.4% ) 08:30 hrs Unemployment Rate November ( NA vs -4.9% ) 08:30 hrs Average Workweek November ( NA vs 34.4 ) It’s Black Friday. Last year more than 151 million Americans said they went shopping either in stores or online, over the holiday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation.
The U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 13 Rigs to 474. The Nat Gas rig count increased by 2 to 118, and there is one rig listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 593. . Crude closed higher at $ 46.06 up $ 0.37.The total rig count is lower by 154 from a year earlier. Natural Gas closed the week higher for the week, up 7.8% at 3.202 up $ 0.222. |
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Fundamentals
The stock market extended its winning streak to three consecutive weeks with the S&P 500 rising 1.4% to mark a fresh all-time high. The top weekly performer in the S&P 500 and making its best gain in four months was Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX: $ 16.00 ) + $ 2.27 or + 16.5%. The Nasdaq had a powerful week closing at a new all-time high, 5399, up 77 points or + 1.5%. Not to be outdone, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.5%),and the Russell 2000 (+2.3%) also registered weekly gains and marked new record highs during the holiday-shortened week. Both the Nasdaq 100 and DJ Transportation Averages were strong with decent gains, but failed to register new all-time highs. On March 17, 2000, the Nasdaq 100 reached 232.88 almost double its present value.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 18867.93 | 19152.14 | 284.21 | 1.5 | 9.9 |
| Nasdaq | 5321.51 | 5398.92 | 77.41 | 1.5 | 7.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2181.90 | 2213.35 | 31.45 | 1.4 | 8.3 |
| Russell 2000 | 1315.64 | 1347.20 | 31.56 | 2.4 | 18.6 |
Small Cap Stocks represented by the Russell 2000 continued their tumultuous gains: Some of the best performers among stocks with a market cap of $ 250 million to $ 1 billion were QAD, Inc ( QADA: $ 30.30 ) + $ 5.00 or + 19.8%; Fifth Street Asset Management ( FSAM: $ 6.30 + $ 1.00 or + 18.9%; Senseonics Holdings, Inc ( $ 2.91 ) + $ 0.46 or + 18.8%; Pacific Ethanol ( PEIX: $ 8.50 ) + $ 1.25 or + 17.2%; Applied Micro Circuits ( AMCC: $ 8.50 ) + $ 1.25 or + 17.2%; Olympic Steel ( ZEUS: $ 25.97 ) + $ 3.54 or + 15.8%; Timken Steel ( TMST: $ 15.67 ) + $ 2.03 or + 14.9%; and Habit Restaurants ( HABT: $ 16.75 ) + $ 2.15 or + 14.7%:
The NASDAQ Composite index gained $ 77.41 or + 1.45% to close in record territory. The top weekly gainers were Dollar Tree ( DLTR: $ 89.18 ) + $ 7.58 or + 9.3%; Analog Devices (ADI: $ 74.20 ) + $ 5.73 or + 8.4%; Ctrip.com International ( CTRP: $ 45.01 ) + $2.99 or + 7.1%; Tesla + $ 11.67 or + 6.3%; and Mattel ( MAT: $ 32.40 ) + $ 1.88 or + 6.2%; The biggest losers for the week were: Cognizant Technology Solutions ( CTSH: $ 53.25 ) – $ 2.32 or – 4.2%; Endo International PLC ( ENDP: $ 16.47 ) – $ 0.67 or – 3.9%; Biogen Inc ( BIIB: $ 305.20 ) – $ 11.80 or -3.7%; Henry Schein ( HSIC: $ 151.18 ) – $ 4.78 or – 3.1%; JD.com Inc ( JD: $ 25.54 ) -$ 0.91 or – 3.4%; and Activision Blizzard ( ATVI: $ $ 37.22 ) – $ 1.17 or – 3.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to another record high at 19,152.14 gaining 284 points or 1.51%. Last week’s biggest gainers were Verizon ( VZ: $ 50.67 ) + $ 2.60 or + 5.4%; Wal-Mart Stores ( WMT: $ $ 71.23 ) + $ 2.69 ) or + 3.9%; Caterpillar Inc ( CAT: $ 95.81 ) + $ 2.47 or + 2.7%; and DuPont ( DD: $ 71.00 ) + $ 2.16 or + 3.1%:
Three blue-chip stocks were losers last week: Johnson and Johnson ( JNJ: $ 114.13 ) – $ 1.23 or – 1.1%; Visa Inc ( V: $ 80.13 ) – $ 0.69 or – 0.9% and Cisco Systems ( CSCO: $ 30.09 ) – $ 0.09 or – 0.3%.
All three of these stocks could be shorted against closes above their respective 13-day moving averages. In addition, Cisco has a busted kite pattern from Nov 16th.
Things were a bit more mixed on the cyclical side where only three sectors outperformed the broader market. The energy space (+2.2%) rallied as OPEC members continued playing ‘Deal or no Deal’ while the consumer discretionary sector (+2.3%) benefitted from expectations for a better than feared holiday shopping season. Industrials (+2.3%) also outperformed, largely thanks to shares of Deere (DE: $ 103.92 ) + $ 12.67 or + 13.9%, which surged in reaction to great results and an upbeat outlook.
The US dollar ( DXYO: 101.49 + 0.28 after having gained + 4.60 or 4.7% since November 4th, continued to impress but at a slower pace.
Volatility ( VIX: $12.34 -0.51 ) plummeted 4.0% which totals a decline in volatility of 50.4% for the three weeks since the election. ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term volatility futures ( UVXY: $ 10.57 ) – $ 0.95 or – 8.2% last week or – 23.1% for the last two week, which amounts to a decline of 51.7% for the three weeks since the election.
The University of Michigan Sentiment Index came in at 93.8 well above the consensus of 91.6. The U.S. trade deficit for goods widened to $ 62.0 bln in October, up from $ 56.1 bln in September which will be a negative for fourth quarter GDP. The second official estimate of Third Qtr GDP growth comes out on Tuesday. In addition the Institute of Supply Management report comes out on Thursday and the November jobs report on Friday.
Reuters reported last wek that the European Central Bank is considering changes to its lending requirements to loosen up the short term funding market. They are considering reducing charges for firms which fail to return on time the bonds they have borrowed, accepting new types of collateral and extending the duration of loans.The ECB is steadily infusing $ 80 billion Euros per month into the economy for its asset repurchasing program all at a time of tightening in the U.S. when rates are likely to be increased in the U.S. relative to other economies. This action should serve to strengthen the dollar and yet be another headwind for the economy and markets in days ahead..
Currently, the ECB lends securities at a fixed fee of 0.3 percnatge point, or the market rate, whichever is higher. Each counterpart may borrow up to 2.5 percent of the amount outstanding of a single issue, with a maximum of 200 million euros for any such issue, subject to availability
ECONOMICS
Durable Goods Orders for October surged past estimates, jumping 4.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.1%), thanks to a 12.0% spike in transportation orders. In addition, new orders in September were revised up to +0.4% from -0.1%. Excluding transportation, durable orders increased 1.0% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) on top of an unrevised 0.2% increase in September.
Shipments, which factor into GDP computations, were up 0.1% in October after rising 0.8% in September versus a previously reported 0.3% increase. Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft — a proxy for business spending — increased 0.4% after falling 1.4% in September.
New orders for primary metals in October were down 0.1%. There were also declines in communications equipment (-1.2%) and motor vehicles and parts (-0.6%).
New order strength was on display in fabricated metal products (+2.2%), computers and electronic products (+0.9%), computers and related products (+6.8%), electrical equipment, appliances and components (+2.3%), transportation equipment (+12.0%), and machinery (+0.2%).
The durable orders report pointed to the fourth consecutive month of growth, suggesting some firming in trends after a spotty first half of the year.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Total Durable Orders | 4.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 3.6% | -4.3% |
| Less Defense | 5.2% | 1.4% | -0.8% | 2.9% | -4.0% |
| Less Transport | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | -0.3% |
| Transportation | 12.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 8.9% | -11.5% |
| Capital Goods | 12.0% | 2.2% | -0.1% | 10.7% | -12.4% |
| Nondefense | 14.5% | 4.0% | -3.9% | 7.7% | -10.9% |
| Nondefense/nonaircraft (core cap gds) | 0.4% | -1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Defense Cap Goods | -3.7% | -8.1% | 27.5% | 38.4% | -24.3% |
Existing home sales increased 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in October from an upwardly revised 5.49 million (from 5.47 million) in September. The October uptick represented the second consecutive monthly increase, following declines in July and August.
Sales increased in all four regions with the South (+2.8%) leading the way while Midwest (+2.3%), Northeast (+1.4%), and the West (+0.8%) followed. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $232,200, up 6.0% year-over-year. The median existing single-family home price rose 5.9% to $233,700.Inventory constraints remain in place, which supports rising prices. Total housing inventory declined 0.5% to 2.02 million. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.5 in September and 4.6 in August. Most notably, first-time buyers accounted for 33.0% of sales, which was down from 34.0% in September, but up from 31.0% one year ago.
First-time buyers are a very important cog in the existing home sales machine as they increase the capability of existing homeowners to move up to higher-priced homes and/or to relocate geographically if desired. Increased participation from this group is a hopeful sign for the home selling market.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Existing Home Sales | 5.60M | 5.49M | 5.30M | 5.38M | 5.57M |
| Months Supply | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Median Price Y/Y | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
Sales of new single-family home sales declined 1.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000 from a revised September rate of 574,000 (from 593,000). The October reading was lower than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 587,000.
The median sales price of $304,500 increased 1.9% from last year while the average sales price declined 3.3% to $354,900.Homes priced over $300,000 accounted for 51% of new homes sold in October versus 55.0% in September. Based on the October sales pace, there is a 5.2-months supply of new homes for sale versus 5.0-months in September and 5.1-months in August.
Sales decreased in all regions, except for the West (+8.8%). The Midwest (-13.7%) saw the sharpest decline while Northeast (-9.1%), and the South (-3.0%) fared a bit better.The downward revision to the September reading was a negative for the series, underscoring that we have yet to see a meaningful acceleration in new home sales despite near-record low mortgage rates and an improving labor market.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Total Sales | 563K | 574K | 567K | 622K | 558K |
| Inventory (months) | 5.2 | 5 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Median Price Y/Y | 1.9% | 2.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | 11.2% |
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Economic Data
December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% on each index. It’s also the top Russell 2000 month and third best for Russell 1000 (1979). December is NASDAQ’s second best month. Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. Market trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. This December, the S&P begins very overbought at 96.54 on a daily stochastic. The RSI is 77.68. No December has ever begun so overbought throughout its history. Conversely, the Gold is at a 5.06 stochastic with the RSI at 14.32 on a daily chart.
Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of month (early January Effect) and the STA strategy is indicated from offerings of stocks making new 52-week lows on Triple-Witching Friday. An Almanac Investor Alert will be sent prior to the open on December 19 containing “Free Lunch” stock selections. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on Friday December 23 and lasts until the second trading day of 2017.
This is the first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. Of the last four times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by two flat years (1994 and 2004) and two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
In the last sixteen election years, December’s ranking slip modestly to #3 S&P 500, #5 NASDAQ, but DJIA remains #2. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in nine election years in December. The average small cap gain in all nine years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
December Triple Witching Week is more favorable to the S&P 500 with Monday up eleven of the last sixteen years while Triple Witching Friday is up twenty-four of the last thirty-four years with an average 0.4% gain. The entire week has logged gains twenty-five times in the last thirty-two years. The week after December Triple Witching is the best of all weeks after Triple Witching for DJIA and is the only one with a clearly bullish bias, advancing in twenty-four of the last thirty-four years. However, three straight years of declines from 2006-2008 have tempered its bullish bias. Small caps shine especially bright the week after Triple Witching with a string of five bullish days in a row.
Trading the day before and the day after Christmas is generally bullish across the board with the greatest gains coming from the day before. On the last trading day of the year, NASDAQ has been down in fourteen of the last sixteen years after having been up twenty-nine years in a row from 1971 to 1999. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have also been struggling recently and exhibit a clearly bearish bias over the last twenty-one years. Russell 2000 record very closely resembles the NASDAQ, gains every year from 1979 to 1999 and just four advances since.
| December (1950-2015) | ||||||||||
| DJI | SP500 | NASDAQ | Russell 1K | Russell 2K | ||||||
| Rank | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| # Up | 46 | 49 | 26 | 28 | 29 | |||||
| # Down | 20 | 17 | 19 | 9 | 8 | |||||
| Average % | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.6 | |||||
| 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle Performance by % | ||||||||||
| Post-Election | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | |||||
| Mid-Term | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |||||
| Pre-Election | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | |||||
| Election | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | |||||
| Best & Worst December by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 1991 | 9.5 | 1991 | 11.2 | 1999 | 22.0 | 1991 | 11.2 | 1999 | 11.2 |
| Worst | 2002 | -6.2 | 2002 | -6.0 | 2002 | -9.7 | 2002 | -5.8 | 2002 | -5.7 |
| December Weeks by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 12/2/11 | 7.0 | 12/2/11 | 7.4 | 12/8/00 | 10.3 | 12/2/11 | 7.4 | 12/2/11 | 10.3 |
| Worst | 12/4/87 | -7.5 | 12/6/74 | -7.1 | 12/15/00 | -9.1 | 12/4/87 | -7.0 | 12/12/80 | -6.5 |
| December Days by % | ||||||||||
| Best | 12/16/08 | 4.2 | 12/16/08 | 5.1 | 12/5/00 | 10.5 | 12/16/08 | 5.2 | 12/16/08 | 6.7 |
| Worst | 12/1/08 | -7.7 | 12/1/08 | -8.9 | 12/1/08 | -9.0 | 12/1/08 | -9.1 | 12/1/08 | -11.9 |
| First Trading Day of Expiration Week: 1990-2015 | ||||||||||
| #Up-#Down | 15-11 | 15-11 | 13-13 | 15-11 | 13-13 | |||||
| Streak | U1 | U1 | U1 | U1 | D2 | |||||
| Avg % | 0.1 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 0.03 | -0.2 | |||||
| Options Expiration Day: 1990-2015 | ||||||||||
| #Up-#Down | 16-10 | 18-8 | 17-9 | 18-8 | 15-11 | |||||
| Streak | D1 | D1 | D1 | D1 | D1 | |||||
| Avg % | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |||||
| Options Expiration Week: 1990-2015 | ||||||||||
| #Up-#Down | 20-6 | 20-6 | 17-9 | 19-7 | 15-11 | |||||
| Streak | D1 | D1 | D1 | D1 | D1 | |||||
| Avg % | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |||||
| Week After Options Expiration: 1990-2015 | ||||||||||
| #Up-#Down | 18-8 | 16-10 | 16-10 | 16-10 | 18-7 | |||||
| Streak | U3 | U3 | U3 | U3 | U3 | |||||
| Avg % | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | |||||
| December 2016 Bullish Days: Data 1995-2015 | ||||||||||
| 5, 21, 22, 27 | 5, 16, 21, 22 | 1, 9, 21, 22 | 5, 16, 21, 22 | 8, 9, 16, 19-23 | ||||||
| 27, 28 | 23, 27 | 27, 28 | 27, 28 | |||||||
| December 2016 Bearish Days: Data 1995-2015 | ||||||||||
| 30 | 30 | 7, 19, 29, 30 | None | 14, 15 | ||||||
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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