Read the July 18, 2016
Where To Invest in July 2016
Market Investing Strategies Newsletter
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July 18, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest in July 2016
Best Stocks To Buy in July 2016
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
How To Trade Options
Proven Profits Trading Success
Results From Some Of Our Recent Trade Alerts
See Trade Table For Last Week’s Trades:
134% Profits on HL Calls in 55 Days
51% Loss on TBT Calls in 3 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
18% Loss on QQQ Calls in 5 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
107% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
28% Profits on NEM Calls in 13 Days
105% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
97% Profits on SJM Puts in 7 Days
207% Profits on SIG Puts in 6 Days
70% Profits on GLD Calls in 1 Day
Join Today to Start Getting Profits Like These.
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$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
There are 4 Open positions:
Long 3 HL Sept 3.50 Calls
Long 6 QQQ July 29th 110 Puts
Long 4 HOG August 50 Calls
Written 3 HL Sept 6.00 Calls against long position
Funds in Use = $ 1123
ARE THEY BEGGING US TO BE COMPLACENT??
Week 28 had a nice profit considering that we had to give up our position in AA due to expiration. I’ll be looking for any pull back to rebuy the option. We still own the stock in the $100,000 account so it didn’t hurt too much. We had a gain of $584 bringing YTD gains to a new high at $6,921. We have two new positions this week, a long in HOG calls and QQQ puts. The first has had some takeover talk and while that is never a good reason alone to buy a stock, it has had some decent basing action over the past 4 months, and is sitting on its 13 day moving average. Earnings (7/28) are far enough in the future to see what develops on the technical action.
The other new position is the QQQ (NASDAQ 100) puts. This is a “balance position” based on the fact that the market is statistically overbought, over extended, and reaching levels that without some real growth are unsustainable.
The spread historical between equity yields and the 30 year US Treasury bond which is normally 380 basis point is now running at almost the same rates.*
*BCA Special report
The extraordinarily low rates are clearly being caused by two actions; the continued purchase of our “safe haven” status treasuries by everyone in the world, and the fact that while you are almost guaranteed to lose principal in the bonds up here, you are hedging yourself against another negative shock in the future. It’s sort of like the “greater fool theory” of buying stocks that are expensive because you think someone else will buy then higher…only in reverse. This NEVER ends well.
This is causing everyone, the elderly, the bankers, the “long only” income funds and the banks to chase yield by accepting more risk. It has happened too many times to ignore, and as I said, it never ends well for anyone.
I still stand by the rationale that I posted Thursday in our new daily update:
Further statistical basis for some balanced positions are the following statistics; 60% of the S&P500 are yielding more than the 10yr US Treasuries (a point at which we generally see a reversal, and 82% of those same stocks are above their 50 day moving averages, also in historic high ground. These 2 statistics and the fact that we have come well over 1300 Dow points and over 150 S&P500 points makes me think we have a tradable pullback. For that reason I’ve taken a few profits and completed the spreads noted above and am looking not for specific “point” moves, but rather I am going to issue sell stops for reversals.
As I’ve said many times before, the whole fundamental picture does not generally change as quickly as market psychology, but the fastest way to stop the market in its tracks is geopolitical problems. Everyone knew that Turkey was in trouble and in a troubled area, but nobody knew when it would erupt. So, not exactly a “Black Swan” event maybe a little dark grey…It’s not over and will flare again and hopefully you won’t just be holding your breath, and you’ll have some balance.
As I wrote in the Thursday Daily Note, I thought I believe that there is a good chance of a tradable “counter trend” move to the downside, and we took action that added some balance for protection.
I then spent 8-10 hours looking through charts and while I still believe that to be true I did notice an interesting comparison for the “set-up” for a long term sustainable Bull market. It’s not easy to see since it is very long term but by manipulating my charts to the monthly timeframe and then zooming in to weekly and daily terms it is remarkably evident.
So, here’s the comparison…During the 17 years of 1966 to 1983 the Dow was traded in a range bound by roughly 1,000 on the upside and 600 on the downside. When it broke out it then ran 170% to 2700, had a 40% slide to 1600 (1987 “portfolio insurance) and then continued for another 11 years to 11,500. The next pull back, DOTCOM related lasted (2001-2002) was 38% to 7,200 followed by a 5 year move to 14,200. Next came the subprime crisis and the low of 6,500 a 54% drop, again followed by another 176% move.
The point of all of this technical work shows that REAL long term bull markets have sharp, severe slides all the time and some even happen right before the breakout to new all-time highs. So, fundamentally we have several quarters of easily beaten earnings comparisons, a sharp correction is not out of the question, hence balance and protection. I relate to the VIX (protection) the same way as the bookies related to the chance of a Leave vote on the Brexit….They were offering such long odds that they were begging you to bet that way. The VIX is so depressed that the investing public is so complacent they are saying you don’t need protection or balance. Almost like the college football when they’ll give you 35 points to take the underdog…who then loses by 50.
Again, I still think that we can again head higher and if we have a couple of good quarterly earnings reports, much higher but the trees don’t grow to the sky..CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
| 07/15 | Bought 4 HOG August 50 Calls | 1.72 | 688 | ||
| 07/15 | Bought 6 QQQ July 29th 10 Puts | 0.56 | 336 | ||
| 07/15 | Sold 10 AA July 9 Calls 6 bought July 24th and 4 lots bought July 27th | 1.85 | 1,850 | 1,118 Gain | |
| 07/14 | Sold 4 QQQ July 29th 110 Puts | 0.68 | 272 | 36 Loss | |
| 07/14 | Sold 4 AAPL July 29th 96.50 Puts | 1.61 | 644 | 68 Loss | |
| 07/13 | Bought 4 QQQ July 29th 110 Puts | 0.77 | 308 | ||
| 07/15 | Bought 10 AA July 10 Calls | 0.77 | 770 | 430 Loss | |
| 07/12 | Bought 4 AAPL July 29th 96.50 Puts | 1.78 | 712 | ||
| 07/11 | Sold 10 AA July 10 Calls | 0.34 | 340 | ||
| 07/06 | Sold 3 HL September 6.00 Calls written against remaining 3 lot long position | 0.52 | 156 | 156 credit | |
| 07/01 | Sold 3 HL September 3.50 Calls; 3 lots left open | 1.99 | 597 | 342 Gain | |
| 06/27 | Bought 4 AA July 9 Calls | 0.54 | 216 | ||
| 06/24 | Bought 6 AA July 9 Calls | 0.86 | 516 | ||
| 05/03 | Bought 6 HL September 3.50 Calls | 0.85 | 510 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
NOTE: In texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity:
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. 1=January, 2=February
Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for
SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.
New Trades Will Be TEXTED To MEMBERS
New Trades Options Account:
1) Buy 6 CL August 72.50 Puts @ $ 0.75
NEW Trades $ 100,000 account :
1) Buy 12 CL August 72.50 Puts @ $ 0.75
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MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
18,516.55 +369.81 +2.04% |
Nasdaq
5029.59 +72.83 |
S&P 500
2161.74 +31.84 +1.49% |
Transportation
7985.17 +301.89 +3.93% |
Russell 2000
1205.31 +27.95 +2.37% |
Nasdaq100
4589.83 +61.46 +1.36% |
| Gold (spot)
1326.50 -30.10 -2.2% |
Silver
2016.5 +6.6 +0.3% |
Crude
45.95 +0.54 +1.2% |
Heating Oil
139.74 -1.49 -1.1% |
Unleaded Gas
1.4220 +0.0512 +3.7% |
Natural Gas
2.756 -0.045 –1.6% |
| VIX
12.67 -0.53 -4.0% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 100/100’s -69/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 56/100’s -8/100’s
|
Bonds
171-21 -5-09 2.23%+0.12% |
10 Yr. Note
131-28-1294 1.51%+0.14%
|
Copper
223.35 +11.45 +5.4% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 188.86. +1.69 +0.9% |
Barron’s* Confidence
66.2 +2.0 |
S&P100
955.92 +13.67 +1.45% |
5 Yr. Note
121-117-1-01 1.08% +1-02%
|
Dollar
96.65 +0.37 +0.4% |
DJ Utilities
710.12 -7.25 -1.01% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Long Term Average |
Bullish
36.9% +5.8%
38.74% |
Bearish
24.4% -2.3%
30.30% |
Neutral
38.7% -3.5%
30.96% |
M! Money
Supply +7.57% July 4th
|
M2 Money
Supply +6.52% July 4th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2120 2173
Dow 18,020 18,552
QQQ 109.70 114.60
Transports 7740 8218
NASDAQ 4960 51.70
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/
Date Sold |
Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| HLF* 25 | 66.78 07/15 | ||||||
| HOG 150 | 48.17 | 07/15 | |||||
| COTV 300 | 22.81 | 07/14 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 23.86 | 07/14 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 24.19 | 07/13 | 23.97 7/14 | ( $ 44 ) | |||
| AAPL* 50 | 97.72 | 07/15 | 97.29 7/14 | ( $ 22 ) | |||
| PYPL 150 | 37.65 | 06/08 | 39.48 7/14 | $ 275 Gain | |||
| SCO 20 | 89.28 | 05/13 | |||||
| HL 1000 | 3.95 | 05/03 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| NVAX 500 | 5.38 | 04/18 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 109.88 | 04/12 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| SUN 300 | 29.50 | 02/23 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
SCO Means Stop Close Only
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were five closed out long option positions. The 20 Alcoa ( AA ) July $ 9 Calls bought on two occasions, June 24th, 12 lots and 8 lots on June 27th were sold on July 15th for a gain of $ 2,238. There were three losing trades: The 20 AA Calls Sold Short on July 11th and covered July 15th lost $ 860. The 8 QQQ July 29th 110 Puts were sold for a loss of $ 72 while the 8 AAPL July 29th 96.50 Puts bought on July 12th and sold July 14th lost $ 136. The net weekly gain for options trading was $ 1,168. There were 3 closed stock positions: The PYPL made $ 275 while the AAPL lost $ 22 and the SPXU lost $ 44. For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits increased to $17,607.00.The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted. The Stock table has the following 19 positions: AA, COTV, EYES (2), HL,HLF, HOG, MOS(2), NBGGY, NVAX, REPR, SAN, SCO(2),SUN,SPXU,TEXQY, and TWTR.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically. The money management is based on a hypothetical
$ 100,000.00. We are using a total of $79,947.00 for the 19 open long stock positions. The Open Option Positions require $ 2,246.00.This increases the margin requirement to $ 82,193.00. The 6 written Hecla Call positions reduce the margin requirement by $ 312 lowering the margin requirement to $ 81,881.00, leaving $ 18,119.00 in cash. Open positon losses decreased by $ 2,401 to minus
$ 7,872, following last week’s improvement of $ 1,943.00 as stock prices continued to improve. These figures are approximate and there might be errors. We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| QQQ July29th
12 lots |
Puts
0.56 |
07/15/16 | |||
| HOG Aug 50
8 lots |
Calls
1.72 |
07/15/16 | |||
| QQQJuly29th110
8 lots |
Puts
0.77 |
07/13/16 | 0.68 | 07/14/2016 | ( $ 72 ) |
| AAPLJly29th 96.50
8 lots |
Puts
1.78 |
07/12/16 | 1.61 | 07/14/2016 | ( $ 136 ) |
| AA July 10
20 Lots |
Calls
0.77 |
07/15/16 | 0.34* | 07/11/2016 | ( $ 860 ) |
| HL Sept 6
Covered Write 6 lots Open |
Calls
0.52 |
0.52 | 07/06.2016 | $ 312 Credit | |
| AA July 9
8 lots |
Calls
0.54 |
06/27/16 | 1.85 | 07/15/2016 | $ 1,048 |
| AA July 9
12 lots |
Calls
0.86 |
06/24/16 | 1.85 | 07/15/2016 | $ 1,188 |
| HL Sept 3.50
6lots remain |
Calls
0.85 |
05/03/16 | 1.99
( 100% Profit Rule plus Gap ) |
07/01/2016 | $ 684 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Bank of America BAC ( 0.33 vs 0.45 ) JB Hunt Trans JBHT ( 0.97 vs 0.88 ) Charles Schwab SCHW ( 0.30 vs 0.25 ) Cal-Maine Foods CALM ( -0.19 vs 0.95 ) Hasbro HAS ( 0.39 vs 0.33 )
10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index July ( 61.0 vs 60.0 ) 16:00 hrs Net Long Term TIC Flows May ( NA vs -$79.6Bln ) The Republican National Convention begins in Cleveland. IBM IBM ( 2.88 vs 3.84 ) EMC EMC ( 0.41 vs 0.43 ) Steel Dynamics STLD ( 0.56 vs 0.22 ) Netflix NFLX ( 0.02 vs 0.06 ) Rogers Comms RCI ( 0.82 vs 0.80 ) VMware VMW ( 0.95 vs 0.93 ) Wilshire Bancorp WIBC ( 0.20 vs 0.20 ) Yahoo YHOO ( 0.10 vs 0.16 ) |
| TUESDAY | Johnson and Johnson JNJ ( 1.68 vs 1.71 ) Golman Sachs GS ( 3.05 vs 4.75 ) Ericsson ERIC ( 1.16 vs 1.45 ) Lockheed Martin LMT ( 2.93 vs 2.94 ) Phillip Morris PM ( 1.19 vs 1.21 )
Novartis AG ( 1.17 vs 1.27 ) Wipro WIT ( 8.93 vs 8.89 ) United Health UNH ( 1.89 vs 1.64 ) 08:30 hrs Housing Starts June ( 1165K vs 1164K ) Building Permits June ( 1150K vs 1138K ) Microsoft MSFT ( 0.58 vs 0.62 ) United Air UAL ( 2.56 vs 3.31 ) Discover Financial DFS ( 1.40 vs 1.33 ) Cintas CTAS ( 1.01 vs 0.86 ) Intuitive Surgical ISRG ( 4.99 vs 4.67 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Abbott Labs ABT ( 0.53 vs 0.52 ) Morgan Stanley MS ( 0.60 vs 0.79 ) Halliburton HAL ( -0.19 vs 0.44 ) Illinois Tool ITW ( 1.40 vs 1.30 ) Amphenol APH ( 0.63 vs 0.58 ) ASML ASML
( 0.80 vs 0.86 ) St Jude STJ ( 1.06 vs 1.07 ) TE Connectivity TEL ( 1.03 vs 0.90 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 07/16 ( NA vs +7.2% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 07/16 ( BA vs -2.546 Mln Bbls) American Express AXP ( 1.72 vs 1.42 ) Intel INTC ( 0.53 v 0.55 ) Las Vegas Sands LVS ( 0.56 vs 0.60 ) Crown CCK ( 1.11 vs 1.03 ) eBay EBAY ( 0.42 vs 0.76 ) Landstar System LSTR ( 0.82 vs 0.92 ) Kaiser Aluminum KALU ( 1.40 vs 1.27 ) Qualcomm QCOM ( 0.97 vs 0.99 ) Tractor Supply TSCO ( 1.16 vs 1.12 ) Newmont Mining NEM ( 0.29 vs 0.26 ) Packaging Corp PKG ( 1.18 vs 1.18 ) Fidelity National FNF ( 0.67 vs 0.65 ) |
| THURSDAY | ABB Ltd ABB ( 0.38 vs 0.33 ) BB&T Corp BBT ( 0.68 vs 0.69 ) General Motors GM ( 1.48 vs 1.29 ) DR Horton DHI ( 0.66 vs 0.60 ) Dover DOV ( 0.86 vs 0.98 ) BNY Melon BK ( 0.75 vs 0.73 ) Johnson Controls JCI ( 1.03 vs 0.91 ) Travelers TRV ( 2.08 vs 2.52 ) Nucor NUE ( 0.70 vs 0.39 ) Union Pacific UNP ( 1.16 vs 1.38 ) Sonoco Products SON ( 0.68 vs 0.66 ) Southwest Air LUV ( 1.21 vs 1.03 ) Sherwin-Williams SHW ( 4.16 vs 3.70 )
Bank of England announces its post-Brexit interest rate decision. The European Central Bank is expected to hint at additional stimulus. Hard announcements are expected in September. 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 07/16 ( 265K vs 254K ) Continuing Claims 07/09 ( NA vs 2149K ) 08:30 hrs Philadelphia Fed July ( 5.0% vs 4.7% ) 09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index May ( NA vs 0.2% ) 10:00 hrs Existing Home Sales June ( 5.50M vs 5.53M ) 10:00 hrs Leading Indicators June ( 0.3% vs -0.2% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 07/16 ( NA vs 64bcf ) AT&T T ( 0.72 vs 0.69 ) Capital One COF ( 1.87 vs 1.78 ) Chipotle CMG ( 0.93 vs 4.45 ) Flex FLEX ( 0.27 vs 0.23 ) PayPal PYPL 0.36 Schlumberger SLB ( 0.22 vs 0.88 ) Sketchers USA SKX ( 0.53 vs 1.55 ) Starbucks SBUX ( 0.49 vs 0.42 ) Swift Transportation SWFT ( 0.31 vs 0.37 ) Visa V ( 0.67 vs 0.74 ) Western Alliance Bancorp WAL ( 0.61 vs 0.49 ) |
| FRIDAY | American Airlines AAL ( 1.66 vs 2.62 ) General Electric GE ( 0.46 vs 0.28 )
Honeywell HON ( 1.64 vs 1.51 ) Stanley Black &Decker SWK ( 1.71 vs 1.49 ) Textron TXT ( 0.64 vs 0.60 ) Synchrony Financial SYF ( 0.54 vs 0.65 ) Sun Trust Banks STI ( 0.88 vs 0.86 ) V.F. Corp VFC ( 0.34 vs 0.38 ) Whirlpool WHR ( 3.37 vs 2.70 )
China hosts G-20 meeting of finance ministers and Central Bankers on Saturday the 23rd. U.S. Oil Rig Count decreased last week. Nat Gas rig count rose by 1 to 90. The oil rig count rose by 6 to 357 making a total US rig count of 447. Crude closed at $ 45.95 Up $ 0.54 for the week. Natural Gas closed the week at $ 2.756, down 0.045.
|
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Stocks soared led by the Dow Jones Transportation Index ( DJT: 7985.17 ) + 301.89 or + 3.9%, finally catapulted above its 200 day moving average last Monday and then never looked back as the index began closing in on its April levels.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 made new record all-time highs. The Dow ( 18,516.55 ) + 369.81 or + 3.9% last week, closed higher each of its last six trading sessions rising 620.67 points.The new all-time high on the Dow is now 18,557.43. The S&P 500 ( 2161.74 ) + 31.84 or + 1.49%, had risen to a new all-time inter day high at 2169.
The Nasdaq ( 5029.59 ) + 72.83 or + 1.47%, having been the laggard, climbed lethargically to a high of 5045, which was all it could muster, but still above its December 2015 close of 5007 and above the gap left early January. The generals have been lethargically flat, resisting rising in conjunction with the overall market. For example Alphabet ( GOOG: $ 719.65 ) + $ 14.22 oe + 2% gave lip service but as anemic. Amazon ( AMZN: $ 735.44 ) – $10.37 or -1.4%; Netflix hardly even moved ( NFLX: $ 98.39 ) + $ 1.33 or + 1.3%. Facebook ( FB: $ 116.86 ) – $ 0.38 or basically flat on the week. Apple ( AAPL: $ 98.78 ) + $ 2.10 or + 2.2% was the biggest gainer. If this overall market were to have legs, much higher prices would have been likely.
Airline stocks were huge making spectacular gains. American Airlines ( AAL: $ 35.89 ) + $ 5.85 or + 19.5% for the week. United Continental ( UAL: $ 47.43 ) + $ 5.55 or + 13.4% was second best. Alaska Air ( ALK: $ 65.04 ) gained $ 5.18 or + 8.7%. Jet Blue ( JBLU: $ 18.64 ) + $ 1.53 or + 8.9%; Delta ( DAL: $ 39.98 ) + $ 2.61 or + 7%; Southwest Air ( LUV: $ 43.16 ) + $ 2.62 or + 6.5% rounded out the prolific carriers. The ETF U.S. Global Jets ( JETS: $ 23.31 + $ 1.65 or + 7.6% remains well below its 200 day moving average.
Speculators’ bullish positions on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures rose to their highest level since April 2013 last week just ahead of the sharp bond sell-off. The amount of long postions in 10-year Treasury futures exceeding bearish or short positions by 131,361 contracts on July 12th, just last Tuesday, according to the CFTC’s latest Commitments of Traders data.
The key indicators to keep an eye on will be Q2 earnings & revenues, which so far has beaten most negative expectations. Bears were expecting lower earnings and layoffs over the coming months. Companies are scrambling to find workers instead of the expected layoffs.
Gold jumped late Friday afternoon after the markets closed when the Turkish coup hit the news wires. While this short-term boost was good for gold longs, it looks like President Erdogan regained control. If Turkish political stability is to be maintained moving forward, the Turkish Lira and stock markets of the world will recover losses. However, the event itself is a reminder of the difficult world circumstances that have become prevalent.
Any risk premium for gold due to these events might be lost since physical demand is really poor which will negatively impact the short term fundamentals.
The latest Commitment of Traders report (COT) saw record-breaking gold positions drop for the first week in a month. Silver actually diverged a little from gold as speculators increased their own positions, which also probably was reflected in the prices as silver was much stronger for the week than gold.
As investors can see, after five weeks of speculative long position increases, we finally saw these longs take some profits their positions. That might have also encouraged shorts to increase their own positions by a mediocre 3,740 contracts.
Looking back at the last major gold peak in 2011, the actual peak in gold occurred around a month after the net speculative long peak occurred. However, today’s Geo-Political events are much more difficult. The Financial Services ETF ( GLD: $ 126.84 ) – $ 3.68 or -2.8%, could pull back to test its 50-day moving average at about 122.50. A new base needs to be formed before substantial advances can be made.
Last week, July 13th, the Fed released its Beige Book, a report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, summarizing business and labor conditions. Economic activity continued to expand as a modest pace across most regions from mid-May through the end of June. Price pressure remained slight. Consumer spending was generally positive, with some signs of slight softening. Manufacturing activity was generally improved. There were a record number of appearances by Fed participants reflecting a positive but modestly improving outlook.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June revealed a 0.5% increase in the PPI for final demand (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). The index for final demand less foods and energy (“core PPI”) advanced 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). This report finally is a good one for the Federal Reserve in their desire to raise interest rates.
The uptick in PPI for final demand was driven by a 0.4% jump in prices for final demand services.
The index for final demand goods increased 0.8%, which was the largest monthly increase since May 2015 and was led by a 4.1% uptick in prices for final demand energy. June marked the third straight monthly increase in core PPI and the largest monthly gain since January.
On a year-over-year basis, PPI for final demand is up 0.3% after being down 0.1% in May while core PPI is up 1.3% after being up 1.2% in May.
| Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
| Final Demand | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Core (excluding …) | |||||
| Food and Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Food, Energy, and Trade | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Final Demand Goods | |||||
| Total | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.7% |
| Energy | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 2.9% | -4.9% |
| Finished Goods | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| Final Demand Services | |||||
| Total | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| Trade | 0.7% | 1.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -0.5% |
| Intermediate Demand | |||||
| Processed | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.9% |
| Unprocessed | 2.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | -1.9% |
| Services | 0.8% | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
The Treasury Budget for June showed a surplus of $6.3 billion versus a surplus of $50.5 billion in June 2015. The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted, so the June surplus cannot be compared to the $52.5 billion deficit registered in May.
Total receipts in June were $329.6 billion while total outlays were $323.3 billion. Receipts were $13.4 billion less than receipts in June 2015. Total outlays, meanwhile, were $48.7 billion more than the same period a year ago. The 12-month deficit widened to $523.6 billion from $479.3 billion in May. Raw data can be found at: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0616.pdf.
| Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus | $6.3B | -$52.5B | $106.5B | -$108.0B | -$192.6B |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus Fiscal YTD | -$400.8B | -$407.1B | -$354.6B | -$461.0B | -$353.0B |
| Deficit (-)/Surplus over last 12 months | -$523.6B | -$479.3B | -$510.9B | -$460.6B | -$405.5B |
Market Strategies Cycles
The Stock Trader’s Almanac recommends to look for sales in the market. Remain patient as the first half of July is historically bullish, but afterwards the worst-two-consecutive-month span, August through September, begins. Like past short trade ideas, there are two possible prices presented to establish a short position. The first is labeled “Short @ Resistance” in the table below. Should a stock rally toward this price then stall and loss momentum a short trade can be considered. Look for corresponding weakness by MACD, Stochastic and relative strength indicators to confirm. The second price to consider shorting the stock is listed in “Short on breakdown below”. This is the stock’s current projected support level. If the stock breaks support a short trade can be considered. Regardless of short trade entry price, the suggested stop loss is the same initially. All 16 short stock ideas will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio which is currently scheduled to be fully updated on July 19 (sooner if conditions warrant).
This basket of 16 possible stocks to short spans the three market cap ranges in the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio. There are three Small-Cap stocks (less than $1billion), six Mid-Cap stocks (greater than $1 billion but less than $5 billion) and seven Large-Cap stocks (greater than $5 billion in value). Our screening process involved an in-depth review of fundamentals, such as revenues and earnings, valuation metrics like price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios, each stock’s technical situation as well as price and daily trading volume. Seasonally weak sectors, like materials, transports and cyclicals (and oil which begins in September) were also given extra attention and produced more than half of the stocks in the basket.
Open interest is moving into the September light sweet oil futures contract. Since peaking a little above $52.70 in early-June, the price of oil has pulled back. The bears tried pushing it through $45 several times in recent days but to no avail. On a bounce, the first target is near $48, which also corresponds to the 20-day moving average. The RSI is neutral, around 45 and the MACDs are poised to cross higher.
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.47 )*
Fourth quarter preliminary net revenues will exceed $3.2 million, representing a slight increase over the $3.1 million of the previous quarter. Sales are led by the Company’s proprietary infusion products. The Company’s fiscal year ended February 29, 2016.
Andy Sealfon, Company President and CEO commented, “The military has expressed interest in our products for utilization in emergency applications as well as use in VA hospitals. We believe that because of our performance standards and the reliability of our products, we will provide them with great value and benefits.”
The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and the newer FreedomEdge™ Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
NHIA is a trade association representing the interests of entities providing infusion and specialty pharmacy products and services to home-based infusion patients.
The Company’s website is RMSMedicalProducts.com
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 6.50 ) The stock moved from approximately $5 a share to approximately $6.50 from May 1 to early June. If you look at the chart pattern of the stock the big volume came in on May 9 which coincided with the Louis Navellier recommendation that I sent to you on that date. He recommended 5 stocks of which 3 (including Enzo) all had similar chart patterns with significant increases in trading volume. I don’t know how much of that volume came from individual investors but the buying had lots of 100-500 share trades which tells me that individuals, not institutional investors were strong buyers of Enzo.
During the same time frame the Russell Index probably started to see some front running by Index funds or ETF’s to take a position into Enzo’s stock as they looked to be included in the Index. These funds mirror the Russell Index. The Russell is a two edged sword. The positive edge is that for Enzo it probably means 2-3 million shares will be bought. Enzo was included in the 2000 and 3000 Russell Index on June 10.
The Russell will hedge their long positions by shorting the stock against their long position to go neutral if they think the market shows weakness or if the fundamentals of the company change. If you remember when Enzo was removed from the Index a couple of years ago the short position was 4 million plus shares and the day Enzo was removed the shorts delivered their long position against the short to flatten the position. The short position on that day dropped to 1 million shares. Enzo had a conference call on their third quarter release last week and I didn’t see any change in the fundamentals. However those individual investors that bought on the Navellier recommendation don’t know the Company and saw that they reported a loss for the quarter (even though they beat estimates) and may have taken profits.
The market in general was down 5 straight days and the index’s that got long the stock may have shorted to hedge their position. That can be confirmed on the first two week short report due out next week. The short position at the end of May was 937,000 shares down from the mid- month short of 1,010,700.The stock has come down some 15% from its high which is not a big deal. To me it is just a technical move.
The stock is approaching oversold territory and as the fear grows the opportunity becomes bigger. The fundamentals haven’t changed and in fact have become stronger with the latest AmpiProbe approval. Enzo has cash of $50 million and no debt. There are 7 more cases to get settled in Delaware which can provide significant additions to the cash position. AmpiProbe will have more submissions to the New York regulatory agency this year. AmpiProbe is cheaper, better and faster than existing technology and that is a $3 billion market.
This is an awesome potential for a 47 million share company and who knows what will happen if the NIH has positive statements on their Optiquel test for Uveitis. The stock is 50% owned by Institutions and funds, 15% by insiders and I guess 10% by hedge funds. That leaves some 11 million shares in the float. If the Russell causes 2-3 million shares to be bought the float then become 8-9 million shares. Good news can really move the price.
Gold Mining USA OTC: GMUI ( 0.01 )* Has both mining activities in Australia and the U.S. Gold Mining USA Inc is an emerging natural resources company focused on developing metallurgical and mining projects. The Company’s business model is to acquire projects with the potential to provide significant resources through exploratory drilling and generate value through their development, joint venture or divestment. GMUI has a team of experts who will manage all mining operations available on their website. In addition GMUI has an Offtake Agreement with a prestigious Swiss-based Gold buyer and Refiner to purchase its gold production at the spot price at the London Bullion Market ( LBMA ) on the day gold is collected.
Australia and Nevada provide the opportunities to exploit smaller, undeveloped or previously mined gold resources that are of no interest to the large mining companies. In addition, there are numerous small hard rock and alluvial gold mines which have viable gold resources but are unable to raise the funds to start up or continue operations.
The company has signed an ongoing agreement with Cardno, a professional infrastructure and environmental services company, to assist in the evaluation and implementation of a work program on one of its North America properties. Steve Craig, a well-known Certified Professional Geologist, will be heading up the efforts on the project.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OTCQB:OGES 0.30) *
Oakridge global energy is a developer, designer and manufacturer of proprietary energy storage solutions. The Company is based out of Florida’s “space coast” near Kennedy Space Center. They make premium quality, proprietary batteries, battery systems and lithium ion cells that are built for maximum performance over the traditional lead/acid batteries. OGES, proudly manufacturing in America since 1986, produces batteries for military, consumer, government, and industrial applications. Target market priorities include golf cars and other recreational vehicles, electronics, and devices requiring rechargeable batteries.
In August 2016 Oakridge Global Energy Solutions will commence production of state-of-the-art Lithium-Ion batteries. The company is currently in the process of soliciting bookings for presale orders with several key industries to include the federal government. Perhaps the most important takeaway regarding Oakridge Global Energy Solutions lies in its relationships that will make it one of the few world manufactures who are able to produce first generation lithium-ion technology that will surpass what is effectively being currently produced.
Furthermore, the company has developed an industrial design team that has incorporated a 21st Century contemporary art style to its cell products. Additionally, the company has numerous patients for its technology but perhaps the most interesting of those centers around the Nano-sized lithium thin film solid state batteries with a Nano encasement. This product in itself stands to propel the company into areas that currently only it has the rights to manufacture in the United States. The Nano lithium thin film solid state battery has a large upside market potential both domestically and abroad.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions over the next several months will be entering simultaneously several markets that will be both exciting to watch its competitors scramble to justify their continued use of dated technology and inferior performance. Again, the company has progress along building the right partners, protecting its intellectual capital, and building a 21st Century industrial design team that has hundreds of man years’ worth of experience to produce the world class product to capture market share quickly.
Lithium ion batteries deliver twice the energy of nickel cadmium batteries and are the fastest growing battery segment. Their growth and demand dynamically forward trending. They are lightweight and easy to maintain. They deliver superior electro-chemical output and provide highest energy density for weight, non-metallic and are rechargeable. In 2015, the OGES Pro Series golf car was launched at the annual PGA show, the largest golf show in the world. OGES plans to have a new factory producing its patented thin film solid state lithium ion batteries by 2017. OGES is commencing delivery of a small format prismatic to help several smart card customers reach the next generation. Their growth will be serviced by the new factory. These batteries are also in a rapidly growing demand for a variety of applications.
iSIGN Media Solutions Inc ( ISDSF: $ 0.105 ) is public company trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture market under the symbol ISD (TSX-V: ISD), and in the United States on the OTC under the symbol of ISDSF. The web site is www.isignmedia.com
iSIGN is a Software as a Service (“SaaS”) company whose US patented software (patent # 8,781,887 B2, received in July 2014) is a unique ‘push and pull’ technology that utilizes Bluetooth and Wi-Fi to ‘push’ messages in any language to mobile devices within a 300 ft (100 meter) radius of our technology, while gathering valuable information from the interaction of our technology with mobile devices within range of our hardware. Recently one of the largest insurance companies in the world categorized the smart antenna as a security device and has given an amusement park a 15-20% discount on their insurance premiums. Please go to “ priority posts” to view recent events.
Recently, a major North American insurance company has categorized the smart antenna as a safety and security device which will open new markets for iSIGN especially in amusement centers, malls and commercial real estate projects.
Through iSIGN’s reseller, We Build Apps, an installation of approximately 500 Smart Antennas into Crocker Park, a roughly 78 acre shopping complex in Ohio, consisting of retail stores, restaurants, residential apartment buildings and office building is close to be signed This complex is managed by Stark Enterprises who manage a total of 16 properties. The potential is for an expansion into the other properties who can also achieve a reduction in their insurance premium costs.
Technology Overview
The patented and proprietary technology does not involve apps and related downloads in order to receive and view messages and, as messages are delivered by Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, is capable of interacting with all cell phones including I Phones and androids. The second hardware unit, the Smart Player, contains all the features of the Smart Antenna, while adding the ability to manage content on digital screens at the same time.
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops: Using fundamentals the following are stocks to buy and they have done well. The table is hypothetical. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Kroger (KR: $ 35.18 ) was bought at $ 35.71 and continues to look good. We bought the HOG at $ 45. We are still very much interested in the Flushing Financial and finally bought FFIC at our theoretical buy limit. The HDGE is a hedge against long positions to create balance in a portfolio. The HDGE goes up when the market goes Down.
| Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
|
| CL | Colgate Palmolive | Consumer Goods; Personal products like toothpaste | 49-24 | 4.24 | 66.8B | 74.72 | 75.40 sell short | 77x |
| DY | Dycom | Materials. Construction Cell Towers internet Infrastructure | 25 | 1.1 | 2.7B | 94.85 | 86.71 | 84x |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 132.39 | Sold Short
132.95 07/11
|
134.40x
|
| KR | Kroger | Processor and Retailer Foods | 15 | 0.31 | 34B | 36.71 | 35.71
6/14/16 |
Stop not entered |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.20 | 3.95 | 4.27x |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 21.19 | 19.10
06/27 |
18.45x |
| SUN | Sunoco | Oil and Gas Refining and marketing | 10 | 0.2 | 2.1B | 30.03 | 29.50
06/27/16 |
27.10sco |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 10.92 | 7.05 originally bought 2/8/16 | Buy any second day down
|
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies | 16 | 1 | 4B | 29.19 | 27.30 | 30x stopped out at 30 |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | Motorcycles and related products | 11 | 1.32 | 8B | 48.10 | 45 bought June 10th
|
new stop at 46 |
| CHD | Church & Dwight | Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer | 25 | 3 | 10.6B | 100.29 | 79.80
01/26/16 |
Sold at 94.20 |
| T | AT&T | Communications | 36 | 1.54 | 211.7B | 42.89 | 34.10 | 37.78x |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.40 | 30.30
Bought |
Merging with Alaska |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 6.50 | 6.05
Originally bought at $ 2.78 8/24/15 |
5.68x |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 13.54
|
13.34
07/11/16 |
13.00x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 9.99
|
Buy a close over 10.05 | 9.77x |
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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