Options Trading Strategies Newsletter November 25, 2013

November 25, 2013

Market Strategies Newsletter

Sample Issue

Covering High Return

Balanced Investing Strategies To

Make Money In Up Or Down Markets

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Read The Complete Options Trading Alerts Newsletter Sample issue in .pdf format:

Click Here

 

Market Strategies Stock Options Trading

$10,000 Account

There are four open positions:

CSCO Dec $24 Calls

FDO Dec $72.50 Calls

NBG Jan 2015, $7 Calls and

XCO December $5 Calls

 

Funds in Use $ 2,350

This week we recorded a gain of $100

bringing the YTD performance to $30,849

 

2013 Total Returns Of 308%

 

The $10,000 Portfolio is now worth $40,849

 Market Strategies Stock Options Trading

$10,000 Account

Traders Comments

This week we got stung by another warning of lowered expectations.  This time it was INTC lowering their outlook and the stock opening down $1 and continuing lower to close down $1.36.

Our position in the Dec. $24 calls went from a close Thursday of $1.35 (a 64% gain) through our 50% down rule @ $ .41…A real disappointment that shows the consequences for lack of progress for stocks priced for perfection.

The market continues to “melt-up” with the financials helping lead the way. Deal stocks abound and buybacks continue to return money to investors.  IPOs continue to perform beautifully.  The markets (especially ours) are the only place to put money to work with reasonable returns.  Gold and dividend plays, especially many like NLY and AGNC, where retirees were hiding have collapsed.  These stocks are not coming back anytime soon…

One of the interest rate issues is that rates trend for long periods of time and once the bottom is in, it may not reverse for quite a while.  While they may vary greatly in short-term fits and starts, rates are headed from the lower left to the upper right of the charts.

This week should be interesting since we generally move higher during holiday weeks.

Futures are higher tonight pointing to an unchanged to slightly lower bond market and stocks higher by $7 in the S&P500 and $65 in the DJIA.  While overbought, we are at new highs with no real overhang in either.

We continue to search for the overlooked stocks near  support and use these opportunities for profits……..CAM

NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!

TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND

THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES

Visit:

PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm

To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate

 

Market Strategies Stock Options Trading Chart

$10,000 Account

 

New Trades

Buy 3 AAPL December 13^th $ 530 Calls @ $ 5

Buy 8 JBHT December 75 Calls @ $ 0.65

Buy 6 WTW December 32.50 Calls @ $ 0.95 

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

Subscriber Members Only

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

 

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.

The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.

We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25^th 147 calls or puts.

Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits

M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

 

New Stock Recommendations

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the Subscribers Members Area.

For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the  DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

 

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio

Recommendations And Overall Comments

New Trades:

1) Buy 6 AAPL Dec 13^th $ 530 Calls @ $ 5.00

2) Buy 16 JBHT December 75 Calls @ $ 0.65

3) Buy 12 WTW December 32.50 Calls @ $ 0.95

We gained $ 510 in

closed out positions last week

increasing our profits for the year to a hypothetical $ 62,963

 

We are not counting open positions losses of about $ 12,312. We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple and JP Morgan.

We have four long options positions:

The Stock table has the following 19 positions:

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000

and are using $ 4,700 in four options positions and

$ 68,802 in 19 stock positions

totaling $ 73,502 with
$ 26,498 in cash

These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the Market Strategies

$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account

• All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated

• When the option has doubled sell half the position

• Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade

• The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

• The options will be followed until closed out.

• Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!

TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND

THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES

Visit:

PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm

 

To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate

This Weeks’ Market Strategies

Economic Numbers and Media Data 

 

Monday

10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Oct  ( 1.3% vs -5.6% )

Tuesday

08:30 hrs Housing Starts Sept ( 915K vs 891K )

Permits Sept ( 932K vs 918KI )

Housing Starts Oct ( 920K vs NA )

Permits Oct ( 932K vs NA )

 

09:00 hrs Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sept

( 13.0% vs 12.8% )

FHFA Housing Price Index Sept ( NA vs 0.3% )

 

10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence Nov ( 72.4 vs 71.2 )

 

Wednesday

07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/23 ( NA vs -2.3% )

08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/23 ( 330K vs 323K )

Continuing Claims  ( 2875K vs 2976K )

Durable Goods Orders Oct ( -2.2% vs +3.8% )

DG ex-Trans ( 0.2% vs-0.2% )

 

09:45 hrs Chicago PMI Nov ( 58.0 vs 65.9 )

 

09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Nov ( 73.0 vs 72.0 )

 

10:00 hrs Leading Indicators Oct ( -0.1% vs 0.7% )

 

10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/23 ( NA vs 0.375Mln bbls )

 

10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories ( NA vs -45bcf )

 

Thursday

Thanksgiving Holiday Mkts Closed

 

Friday

U.S. Markets close at 1PM EDT

in observance of the holiday.

 

It’s Black Friday, the traditional kickoff for the holiday shopping season. Customer Growth Partners is forecasting sales to be the slowest since 2007.

 

Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals

Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs. The Dow closed at 16,064.77 up almost 55 points on the day and 0.65% for the week. The S&P 500 closed at 1804.76  above 1800 for the first time, another small gain for the week up just 0.37%. For the entire year, the Dow is up from a low of 12,883.89 to close at 16,064.77, a gain of 24.7%. The S&P in the same period has rallied from a low of  1398.11 to close at the new all-time high of 1804.76, a gain of 406.73 points or 29%.

Amid all the strength and new highs, there was plenty of volatility with substantial losses in some areas such as Consumer Goods, Home-Improvement stores, Broadcasting, Gold and Silver, Basic Materials and Technology. Reasonable  gains continued in both Health Care and Financials.

 

Market Strategies Economic Data

Retail sales increased a solid 0.4% in October. Sales were flat in September after an upward revision (from -0.1%). The Briefing.com consensus expected sales to increase 0.1%.Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales rose 0.2% in October, down from a 0.3% gain in September. The October retail sales numbers were expected to take the brunt of the negative repercussions from the government shutdown. As the strong retail sales report shows, the government shutdown did not derail the economy or harm consumption/savings trends. This was expected after Congress quickly authorized back pay for all federal workers furloughed during the shutdown.

 

The National Retail Federation, a trade organization, is forecasting a sales gain of 3.9% for the year compared with last year’s 3.5% even though there are six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The S&P Select Industry Index has rallied 42% this year compared to the broader S&P 500 which is up 28%.

                                            

Market Strategies Technical Information

Support Levels S&P 500    1778

Resistance S&P 500           1818

 

Support Levels DOW          15,734

Resistance DOW                 16,190

 

Support Levels QQQ           8236                  

Resistance QQQ                  8445

                  

Support Levels Nasdaq      3904

Resistance Nasdaq             4077

       

Market Strategies Cycles

Trading the Thanksgiving market can be can be beneficial to the bulls. Since 1988, the Wednesday-to-Friday pattern was up 15 of 25 years with a total point gain of 672.37. Monday’s were usually losers as the total Dow losses amounted to 661.38. The Dow was down 10 of 15 years since 1998. The best strategy has been coming into the week long and exiting on strength Friday.

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 12 of the last 15 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.7%. S&P 500 has been up in 11 of the past 15 post-election years. Small cap perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 8 post-election years, averaging 2.6%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%) and 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo).

Gold prices tend to move up prior to the holidays, and the trend has worked especially well over the last 13 years. Seasonally speaking, it is best for traders to go long on or about November 19 and hold until about December 4. Over the last 38 years, this trade has worked 21 times for a success rate of 55.3% .The cumulative profit tallies up to $27,400. Up until last year this trade had been profitable for 12 straight years (2000-2011). The longer-term history of this trade is not as good, nonetheless profitable. Gold has had one of its toughest years this year, but this is a short-term trade and gold has become oversold and appears poised for a bounce. ( Stock Trader’s Almanac )

 

Disclaimer – Rule 17 B Attestations

Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton will be engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the two small penny stocks ( REPR and AIVN ) we represent for a total outlay of $ 4,725 is well worth the risk. The Target ADR trades at about $ 5.90 in U.S. vs 0.065 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s.

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

Read The Complete Options Trading Alerts Newsletter Sample issue in .pdf format:

Click Here

 

CONTACT

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

Mike King (702) 650-3000

mike@princetonresearch.com

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

Phone: (702) 650-3000