Options Trading Newsletter November 17, 2014

Where To Invest your money now

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Options Trading Newsletter  

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November 17, 2014

Market Strategies Newsletter

Sample Issue

How to trade binary options

November 2014 Where To Invest Now and

Options Trading Newsletter Covering:

Options Trading Strategies

How To Trade Options

Stock Options Trading Alerts

Best Stocks To Buy November 2014

Where to Invest November 2014

Options Trading Newsletter

Over 149% 2014 YTD Gains

Gain for the Year $ 14,966

$14,966 Profits for $10,000 Trading Account

 

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High Return Investments Trade Alerts

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Where To Invest Your Money Now March 2014 Market Strategies

Market Strategies

$10,000 Trading Account Traders Comments

We have 4 Open Positions:

 

Long  2 PPO Nov 40 Calls

Short  2 PPO 42.50 Calls

Long 20 RWM Nov 16 Calls

Long 8 QCOM Nov 71 Calls

 

Funds in Use = $ 654 Credit  

 

Net Gain for the week $ 511

Year to date profit $ 14,966

Over 149% Returns

 

The gain of $511 for week 45 brought our YTD performance up to $14,966 or just short of 150%.  Since we still have the bull spread in PPO the funds in use remains a credit of $654.

As noted in the Market Lab, the bullish/bearish consensus numbers are getting dramatically away from historic comparisons.  This weeks 59% bullish reading compares to the historic average of only 39%.  I hate to quote myself again, but “everyone is never right.”  We are overbought and the 200 point 20-day rally in the S&P500 is overdone.

What struck me as of greater importance was the commodity moves for the week.  Gold and silver had dramatic outside day reversals with gold closing almost $50 from the low and the silver closing over $1 from its low.  I believe that it needs to be pointed out that moves of this magnitude are not dismissed…Remember that a move of $50 in gold is a 5% move but it translates into over a 200% move in equity for anyone trading the 100-ounce contract.  The move in silver of $1.00 is over a 400% move in equity.

 

While we continue to become desensitized by volatility, these moves represent out sized gains and losses.  The chart of T bonds also bears watching.  Since the blow off top @ 148 on 10/15 we have come down and formed a nice rounded bottom between 140-141.  A close over 142-06 should propel us towards 144. That may not seem like a lot, but it represents a move of $10 from 128 to 118 in the TLT, the bond ETF.

 

All in all, the only way for me to trade is by continuing to utilize small initial positions and look for overbought  charts to sell.  Clearly the FB puts didn’t work this week, but the loss was small and I will continue to look for more of those “counter-trend” trades with close stopping out points.

 

This week should give us a bit more of a range to work with…S&P500 can easily come back to the small gap between 1990-2001 and 2004, or even fall back to 1980 for a 1/3 test of this recent move up.  None of this matters.  What matters is that we do our homework and keep to trades that have defined risk.

 

As Mikes friend Oscar puts it, “Stops should go in at the same time as the trade goes on.”

…..CAM

Options Trading Strategies

Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table

New Trades

Buy 4 TLT December 120 Calls @ 1.26  ( Or Better )

DATE TRADES PRICE COST PROCEEDS RESULTS
11/12 This information is for Members Only

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Special Membership Offer HERE

3.20 960        675 Gain
11/12 0.66 264        164 Loss
11/11 0.42 336
11/07 1.90   270        285 Gain
11/06 1.07 428  
11/06 9.90  1980  
11/04 4.20    840        450 Gain
11/03 0.30 600
11/03 0.95 570
10/27 1.95 780

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

Subscriber Members Only

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

 

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.

 

We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.

 

 

MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.

Dow

17,634.74

+60.81

+0.35%

Nasdaq

4688.54

+56.01
+1.21%

S&P 500

2039.82

+7.90

+0.39%

Transportation

9061.53

+112.42

+1.26%

Russell 2000

1173.81
+0.49

+0.04%

Nasdaq 4224.99

+64.48

+1.55%

Gold (spot)

1185.0

+15.40

+1.3%

Silver (July)

1631.4

+60.0

+3.8%

Crude

75.82

-2.83

-3.6%

Heating Oil

241.61

–8.34

-3.3%

Unleaded Gas

2.0425

-0.0927

-4.3%

Natural Gas

4.402

-.392

-8.9%

VIX

13.31

+0.19

+1.5%

Put/Call Ratios

S&P 100

191/100’s

+85/100’s

Put/Call Ratios

CBOE Equity

60/100’s

-3/100’s

 

Bonds

141-22 +01

3.05%- 0.00%

10 Yr. Note

126-22+01       2.32%- 0.00%

 

Copper

304.65

+0.80

+0.3%

CRB Inflation

Index

266.79

-3.87

-1.4%

Barron’s* Confidence

79.7%

+0.1%

S&P100

906.83

+5.26

+0.58%

5 Yr. Note

119-182 Flat

1.61%- 0.00%

 

Dollar

87.54

-0.10

-0.1%

DJ Utilities

586.04

-17.04

-2.83%

AAII

Confidence

Index

Bullish

57.9%

+5.2%

Bearish

19.3%

+4.2%

Neutral

22.8%

-9.4%

 

M1 Money  Supply

+10.68%

November 3rd

 

M-2 Money

Supply

+4.94%

November 3rd

* Component Change in the Confidence Index

 

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

Stock market News Today

Where to Invest November 2014

Market Strategies Technical Information

 

Support Levels S&P 500        1982

Resistance S&P 500              2064

 

Support Levels DOW          17,278

Resistance DOW                17,725

 

Support Levels QQQ            99.60

Resistance QQQ                  102.90

 

Support Levels NASDAQ      4560

Resistance NASDAQ            4695

 

 

$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and

Stocks To Buy

 

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Stock Purchase Price Purchase Date Stop/Loss   Price/Date Sold   Profit/($ 920Loss)
This information is for Members Only

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Special Membership Offer HERE

 

36.65      11/10
15.48      11/10
11.74      11/03 13.08 11/11 $ 920
14.21      10/16
97.68      10/15
34.99      09/09
  2.95      05/19
0.407      03/14
15.37      01/16
32.64 12/23 32.21 sco
4.08 8/12
6.56 7/11
12.10 5/23
76.85 11/08/12
0.22 10/22/12 .12 sco

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

Subscriber Members Only

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the

VIP Subscribers Members Area.

   
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the  DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

 

 

How To Trade Options

 

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account

Investing Strategies Summary

    

1 ) Buy 8 TLT December 120 Calls @ 1.26

 

There were two closed out long option positions last week with a gain of $ 1,022.

 

There was also one closed out stock position, the Jet Blue Long, JBLU for a profit of $ 920.

 

For the full year to date we have gains of $ 41,445.

Over 41% Returns

 

Open position losses increased slightly to $ 5,291

 

There are five Open Option positions:

 

PPO Nov 40 Calls; Short PPO 42.50 Calls; Long QCOM Nov 71 Calls

Short PPO 42.50 Calls and Short RPTP Nov 10 Calls

 

 

The Stock table has the following remaining 15 positions:

 

AA, AAPL (2), COSWF,  FCX,  GSG, JBLU,  MCF,

NBG (3),  REPR, RPTP,  TEXQY,  XRGYF

Stock Market News Today

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.

 

 

We are basing money management on a hypothetical

$ 100,000 and are using a total of

$51,750 in all the positions. There are 15 stock positions and two written call options with

$ 48,250 in cash.

 

 

These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

 

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

 

Stock Options Trading Alerts

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the Market Strategies

$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account

 

  • All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated

 

  • When the option has doubled sell half the position

 

  • Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade

 

  • The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

 

  • The options will be followed until closed out.

 

  • Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

 

Option Cost Date Sold Date Profit/(Loss)
This information is for Members Only

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Special Membership Offer HERE

 

Calls

0.42

11/11/14
Puts

1.07

11/06/14 0.66 11/12/14 ( $ 328 )
Calls

9.90

Open

11/06/14 42.50 Written Calls $ 3960 Credit
Calls

0.95

11/03/14 1.90

( 100% Profit Rule Sold Half )

3.20 Sold Balance

11/07/14

 

11/12/14

$ 570

 

$ 1350

Calls

0.30

Calls

4 open

11/10/14 1.40

( shorted against long position

Written Calls $ 560 Credit
Calls

1.95

10/27/14 4.20

( 100% profit Rule Sold Half Plus Opening Gap

11/04/14 $ 900

 

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

 

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Best Stocks To Buy November 2014 

Where To Invest Now

This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data

 

Before the Open on top of the Row; After the close below the Economics

 

Monday China Mobile Games ( CMGE 0.39 ) Tyson Foods ( TSN 0.77 vs 0.70 )

08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing Nov ( 12.0 vs 6.2 )

09:15 hrs Industrial Production Oct ( 0.2% vs 1.0% )

Capacity Utilization ( 79.3% vs Same )

Agilent ( A 0.89 vs 0.81 ) Jacobs JEC ( 0.86 vs 0.84 )  Willbros ( WG 0.11 vs -0.02 )

Tuesday Dick’s Sporting Goods ( DKS: 0.41 vs 0.40 ) Home Depot ( HD 1.13 vs 0.95 )

08:30 hrs PPI Oct ( -0.2% vs -0.1% )

CORE PPI 0.1% vs 0.0% )

10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index Nov ( 55 vs 54 )

16:00 hrs Net Long Term TIC Flows ( NA vs +$52.1Bln )

Jack In the Box ( JACK 0.53 vs 0.45 ) PetSmart ( PETM 0.94 vs 0.88 )

Wednesday JM Smucker ( SJM 1.57 vs1.52 ) Staples ( 0.36 vs 0.42 )Target ( TGT 0.47 vs 0.54 )

07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/15 ( NA vs -0.9% )

08:30 hrs Housing Starts Oct  ( 1025K vs 1017K  )

Building Permits Oct 1040K vs 1031K )

10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/15 ( NA vs -1.735 Mln Bbls )

14:00 hrs FOMC Minutes 10/29

Keurig Green Mtn ( GMCR 0.77 vs 0.89 ) Salesforce.Com ( CRM 0.13 vs 0.09 )

Thursday Best Buy ( BBY 0.24 vs 0.18 ) Dollar Tree ( DLTR ( 0.64 vs 0.58 )  Jinko Solar ( JKS 0.71 vs 1.36 ) Kirklands ( 0.03 vs 0.06 ) Sears Holdings ( -3.31 vs -5.03 )

08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/15 ( 285K vs 290K )

08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 11/08  ( 2375K vs 2392K )

08:30 hrs CPI Oct ( -0.1% vs +0.1% )

CORE CPI ( 0.1% vs Same )

10:00 hrs Existing Home Sales Oct ( 5.17M vs Same )

10:00 hrs Philadelphia Fed Nov ( 18.0 vs 20.7 )

10:00 hrs Leading Indicators Oct ( 0.6% vs 0.8% )

10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/15 ( NA vs NA )

Gamestop ( GME 0.61 vs 0.58 ) GAP ( GPS 0.75 vs 0.72 ) Intuit ( INTU  -0.20 vs -0.06 ) Marvell (MRV  0.29 vs 0.32 ) Ross Stores ( ROST: 0.86 vs 0.80 )

Friday Before the Open: ANN ( 0.70 vs 0.89 )  Foot Locker ( FL: 0.79 vs 0.68 )

 

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Market Strategies Fundamentals

Neither buyers nor sellers are showing much conviction as volume has declined on the S&P 500 80 million share range down from the 131 million average. Sellers are fearful of further upside, while the predominate amount of longs are concerned that a pullback is in order. Earnings season ended with improvements across the board as companies flush with funds and cheap money continued to buy-back their stocks. Costco executives sold $4 mln in their stock positions near record highs. It has been a great year for top execs rampant with stock options.

 

Oil prices continued to plummet causing Consumer Discretionary stocks to flourish ( XLY: 69.28 ) a new all-time high. Prices at the pump should continue to go lower just in time for a robust holiday shopping season.

 

The decline in prices at the pump translate into a tax cut for the consumer. There is little reason for oil prices to rebound much higher, which is also a benefit for Asian countries badly in need of energy. The Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam are booming. Their exports have been rising 20% per year for the past three-four years.

 

China’s trade surplus expanded to $ 45.41 billion from $ 31 billion as imports rose just 4.6%, while exports increased 11.6%. Their PPI fell 2.2%. ( all yearly figures ) Major European Indexes traded mostly higher with Great Britain’s FTSE pacing the advance. The FTSE has had four consecutive weekly advances going from 6250 to 6650. It is right up against its 50 day price moving average after going through the 13 wma last week. On a daily basis it closed above its 50 day moving average last week on Monday and never looked back, up four out of five sessions  to 6654.37, now challenging its 200 day M.A. at 6696.

 

 

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Market Strategies Economic Data

Look for October Industrial Production to be up strong at 09:15 hrs Monday Morning:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 89.4 in the preliminary November reading from 86.9 in October. That was the highest reading since the index touched 90.4 in July 2007.The Current Conditions Index increased to 103.0 from 98.3 in October. The Expectations Index increased to 80.6 from 79.6, topping 80.0 for the first time since July 2007. Sentiment trends follow changes in equity prices, employment, and gasoline prices.

 

Category NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL
Sentiment 89.4 86.9 84.6 82.5 81.8
  Outlook 80.6 79.6 75.4 71.3 71.8
  Present conditions 103.0 98.3 98.9 99.8 97.4

 

 

Undervalued Small Cap Stocks

 

We have bought positions in each of these companies.
Target Energy* ( TEX.AX  0.045  Australia ), In the USA, ( TEXQY: $ 3.50 ) a new ADR.

 

This company trading at a nickel could earn more than where it is now trading. Perhaps 7 to 10 cents is in the cards.

 

Their business valuation exceeds market cap.

 

Leo Motors ( LEOM $ 0.09 )*

 

Has merged with LGM, a potential to be the Tesla of Asia. We like it now, above its 13-day moving average. Please go to www.leomotors.com ( English Version ) Risk is 3 cents.

 

You have heard about a new short-circuit technology. Many new breakthroughs in electric energy

are coming.

 

 

RMS Medical Systems, Inc ( REPR 0.39 )*

 

Freedom 60 designs, markets, manufactures infusion devices portable, including needles and

easy to handle by patients. The RescueVac is also used in ambulances and planes for emergency suction.

 

 

 

Cleveland BioLabs, Inc ( CBLI $ 0.40 )*.

 

CBLI has done much research on cancer as well as developing a prevention for radiation sickness. Just imagine the catastrophe if radioactive material falls into the wrong hands. The Russian Medical Federation has invested heavily in this.

 

Entolimod is being developed as a radiation treatment. Please go to www.cbiolabs.com for more pertinent information.

 

 

 

Labor Smart, Inc. ( LTNC: $ 0.01 )* 

See Corporate Site

Top line sales growth is significant.

 

They deliver labor solutions at assigned jobsites ready for work while other services are still sending candidates to be interviewed.

 

Labor Smart delivers people-power to small and medium sized businesses in warehousing,

freight handling, light industrial services, manufacturing, social events, and retail industries.

 

They also support commercial construction and demolition industries with general labor and skilled trades people.

 

Labor Smart was founded in 2011, is based in Hiram, Georgia and currently operates 30 branch locations in the Southeast and Central States. Their growth model includes both new office establishments in addition to acquisitions.

 

SEE

Small Cap Stock To Buy Research Report

Click Here

 

 

Stocks To Buy On A November Dip:

 

Stocks and ETF’s bought on the October dip: Notice the Flexibility for whatever the market direction. Both the VIX and SPXU protect against declines while the UDOW and various stocks are from the long side. The UAL has had a nice run but should now be sold. We would also sell the BELFB . We have added Canadian Oil Sands COSWF

 Best Stocks To Buy November 2014

Symbol Name Business Description PE P/S MV mln Price Buy Limit Stop Loss
COSWF Can Oil Sands Oil Recovery    
IIIN Insteel industries Metal fabrication 29 0.7 411 24.47 21.22 21.22
KR Kroger Retail Food 17 0.24 24.6K 57.71 48.90 46
XOM Exxon Mobil Energy 13.4 1.1 420K 96.59 90.50 92.50
UAL United Cont Hld Transportation 16 1.2 18.1K 56.10 46 48
UDOW Ultra Pro Dow 30 ETF 135.97 104.81 131
DE John Deere Farm Equipment 9.4 0.80 29.0K 87.52 80 83
BELFB Bell Fuse Inc B Electronics 9.5 0.74 276 26.80 23 24.50
SPXU Ultra Short S&P Hedge purposes 39.94 43.20 38
DD DuPont Chemicals 21 1.71 61.3K 70.80 64.80 63
VXX VIX Volatility Hedge Portfolio 28.66 27.10 28
MOS Mosaic Company Agriculture Chemicals 70 2.10 15.3K 45.15 42.28 41.70

 

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Market Strategies Cycles

 

Supply constraints will hit as prices fall. The Economic Times reports some interesting data, including this chart:  meanwhile, the rallies remain a sale. No need to try and pick a bottom. Concomitantly, the large oil companies will enjoy a growth opportunity as smaller highly-leveraged producers get squeezed.

 

Companies like Halliburton ( HAL: $ 55.08 ), which is talks to buy Baker Hughes ( BHI: $ 59.89 ), Exxon ( 95.09 ) , Schlumberger SLB ( SLB: $ 95.32 ) shine above all others in their space.

Oil is in a down-trend now most likely as the result of a demise of OPEC, just the opposite of the seventies when they first emerged as a power. Technology is improving in America, which is increasing world production. Oil pricing will revert to natural economics, supply and demand. Demand will increase along with world modernization and prosperity. The world will consistently need more, not less oil. But first, the market must price in the demise of OPEC and problems for Russia with the ever cheapening Ruble. Another headwind will be the commitment to bring down greenhouse gases agreed to by President Obama and China president Xi Jinping which will cause a tax by weight of emissions. They agreed on a 26-28% reduction by the year 2025.

 

The upcoming OPEC meeting on November 23 will produce more squabbling. The Saudis are the most prominent, logical member and the most likely to operate properly, with low operating costs, they will not look to undercut. Other members are a basket case: Nigeria, Libya, Venezuela and Brazil are having trouble with corruption, graft and resistance to economic “breakthroughs.”  Hugo Cavez decided to buy votes rather than invest in the future.

The U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are the world’s biggest producers. Iran is fourth; China fifth and Canada sixth. The U.S. is the largest natural gas producer. Russia had been the world’s largest producer but is in dire need of U.S. technology. However, sanctions from its aggression of the Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, have caused the Ruble to collapse and weakening its GDP, which has also weighed on oil prices accelerating its decline. The cheaper fuel is a windfall to consumers. The prices at the Pump have created a sort of stimulus that neither the Fed nor Congress could ever do.

 

The benefit to consumers could also be a negative for GDP as economic growth is dependent on the $ 300 to $ 400 billion increase in yearly output from oil and gas production.  In addition the bonds of quality energy companies have jumped to 6.93% vs the average of 5.91% for the high yield market as a whole. Any protracted downturn in oil prices will cause real problems for under-financed highly leveraged speculative-grade companies and junior producers with heavy debt and deep drilling responsibilities.

 

 

November Almanac: Usually A Top-Performing Month in Any Year By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA and S&P 500 month since 1950. Since 1971, November ranks third for NASDAQ. November is second best for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 third best since 1979.

In midterm years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 12 of the last 16 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up in 12 of the past 16 midterm years, gaining on average 2.7%. Small-caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 8 midterm years, averaging 3.9%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA –7.0%, bear market ended in December).

Options expiration often coincides with the week before Thanksgiving. DJIA posted ten straight gains 1993-2002 and has been up 16 of the last 21 weeks before Thanksgiving. The Monday of expiration week had been streaky with the DJIA up five straight, 1994-1998, during the bulk of the last 20th Century bull market, down five in a row, 1999-2003, up three, 2004-2006, but has been mixed since 2007, up three and down four. The net result is a bearish down 9 times in the last 15 years. Options expiration day has a clearly bullish bias, up 10 of the last 12.

 

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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers

 

Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.

 

When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.

 

We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.

 

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

 

 

CONTACT

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

Mike King

(702) 650-3000

mike@princetonresearch.com

 

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street,

Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

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