Options Trading – May 13, 2013 Market Strategies Newsletter

where to invest August 2014

Options Trading

May 13, 2013

Market Strategies Newsletter

Sample Issue

Options Trading

Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To

Make Money In Up Or Down Markets

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz

See the newsletter in .pdf format

 

Market Strategies

$10,000 Options Trading Account

There are seven open positions:

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Funds in Use: $ 2,670

 

Options Trading Strategies Comments

 

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

VIP Subscriber Members Only TEXTING SERVICE TO

RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

 

This week we generated a loss of $636

lowering the YTD performance to

$18,218 or 182%.

 

We have become a little bit more cautious about our trading and it has taken the form of slightly decreased activity as well as smaller positions.

One observation about this market is that the weekly sentiment numbers continue to shift, but not so much from “bullish” to “bearish” with any regularity.

This week the move of up 8.4 is just slightly above average (30.5) working off the massive move from a couple of weeks ago (4/11) when it fell to 19.3% Bulls.

The more common changes seem to signify shifts from the “uncommitted” or neutral in both directions.

It’s a market that keeps shifting the uncommitted in and out. We bought 250 shares of the VXX ( volatility ) for the big account expecting a shift from complacency.

This is NOT a bad thing.  It keeps us from overheating on the upside and avoids the cascading down moves that cause the public to exit altogether. And it also shows that the “roll” from debt to equity isn’t the only way to bring money into the market.

While the Barron’s front page is the only place to trumpet the 15,000 level for the DOW, we may still be able to move higher.  I really hate for everyone to be bullish…”EVERYONE IS NEVER RIGHT” comes hauntingly back to mind….Maybe this time it actually is different.

…CAM

Where To Invest Now

Options Trading Strategies Table

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

DATE

 

PRICE

COST

PROCEEDS

RESULTS

5/08

This Information

Is For

VIP Member

Subscribers Only

0.34

340

340 Loss

5/07

 

0.33

330

320 Loss

5/07

 

2.97

594

74 Gain

5/06

 

0.50

250

50 Loss

5/01

 

4.05

405

145 Gain

5/01

 

0.65

650

4/30

 

2.60

780

4/25

 

0.10

60

4/24

 

0.68

680

4/23

 

1.20

600

300 Gain

4/23

 

1.55

775

600 Gain

4/19

 

1.00

1000

650 Gain

4/18

 

0.60

600

4/15

 

0.35

700

4/01

 

0.73

1460

Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 1 January , 2 February. The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.

We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.

 

Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and

Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect

Dow

15,118.49

+144.53

+0.97%

Nasdaq

3436.58

+57.95

+1.72%

S&P 500

1633.70

+19.28

+1.19%

Transportation

6,375.52

+156.62

+2.52%

Russell 2000

975.16

+20.74

+2.17%

Nasdaq 100

2981.02

36.43

+1.24%

Gold (spot)

1436.80

-27.50

-1.9%

Silver (Dec )

2365.8

-35.6

-1.5%

Crude

  96.04

+0.43

  +0.45%

Heating Oil

290.62

+2.18

 +0.8%

Unleaded Gas

  2.8603

 0.0349

 +1.2%

Natural Gas

  3.910
-0.131

-3.2%

VIX

 12.59

-1.02

 -7.5%

Put/Call Ratios

S&P 100

88/100’s

-39/100’s

Put/Call Ratios

CBOE Equity

 60/100’s

-01/100’s

Bonds

145-00 -2-02

 3.10% +0.13%

10 Yr Note

132-024-25  1.90% +0.15%

Copper

335.30

+3.85

 +1.2%

CRB Inflation

Index

 288.68

-1.49

 -0.5%

Barron’s Confidence

 69.2%

+1.9%

S&P100

732.85

+7.20

+0.99%

5 Yr Note

123-317 -135                                                   0.82% +0.09%

Dollar

83.14

+1.01

 +1.2%

DJ Utilities

513.71

-15.59

-2.95%

AAII

Confidence

Index

Bullish

40.8%

+9.8%

Bearish

27.4%

-8.5%

Neutral

31.8%

-1.3%

M1 Money  Supply

+14.29%

Apr29th

M-2 Money

Supply

+6.73%

Apr29th

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits

M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

 

New Stock Recommendations

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.


For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

 

$100,000 Trading Portfolio

Options Trading Strategies

Recommendations And

Overall Comments

We lost $ 252.00 in closed out positions last week

reducing our profits for the year to an hypothetical $ 35,977

 

We have one long BAC warrant position and three long options positions:

The Stock table includes the following nineteen positions:

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $100,000 and are using $ 2,670 for the one warrant and three options positions, $ 73,684 in the19 stock positions for a total of  $76,354 with $23,646 in cash.

These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the $100,000

Portfolio Trading Account

  • All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
  • When the option has doubled sell half the position.
  • Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
  • The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
  • The options will be followed until closed out
  • Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

Option

COST

Date

Sold

Date

Profit

(Loss)

This Information

Is For

VIP Member Subscribers Only

Calls       0.80

5/06/13

 

 

 

  Calls       0.65

5/01/13

0.33

(50% Loss Rule )

5/07/13

( $ 640 )

  Puts        2.60

4/30/13

4.05

(sold 2 lots leaves 4)

 

2.97

Sold remaining 4 lots

5/01/13

 

 

5/07/13

$ 290

 

 

$ 148

  Calls       0.10

4/25/13

 

 

 

  Calls       0.68

4/24/13

0.34

(50% Loss Rule )

5/08/13

( $ 680 )

  Calls        0.60

 

0.50

5/06/13

( $ 100 )

  Calls        0.35

4/15/13

 

 

 

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

                                                                                                                                              

This Weeks’ Market Strategies

Economic Numbers and Media Data

Monday Hecla (HL ) Mining reports earnings before the open.

( expected bottom line earnings  -0.1 and

top line revenue -16.1% )

 

08:30 hrs Retail Sales Apr

( -0.3% vs -0.4% )

Ex-Auto  (-0.2% vs -0.4% )

 

10:00 hrs Business Inventories

Mar ( 0.3% vs 0.1% )

 

Tallgrass Energy Partners a limited

partnership that owns and runs

midstream energy assets is set to

prices 13.05 million shares on the

NYSE @ $ 21-23/ share.

Tuesday 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex Ag

Apr (NA vs -0.2% )

Import Prices ex Oil

Apr ( NA vs -0.2% )

 

Eagle Materials reports after the close

 

Wednesday Deere and Macys report sales and

earnings before the open.

 

MBA Mortgage Index 5/11

( NA vs + 7.0% )

 

08:30 hrs PPI Apr ( -0.5% vs -0.6% )

CORE  ( 0.1% vs 0.2% )

 

08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing

May ( 3.5 vs 3.1 )

 

09:00 hrs TIC FLOWS

Mar ( NA vs -$17.8B )

 

09:15 hrs Industrial Production

Apr ( -0.2% vs 0.4% )

Capacity Utilization

( 78.3% vs 78.5% )

 

10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index

May ( 44 vs 42 )

 

10:30 hrs Crude Inventories

05/11 ( NA vs 0.230 mln bbls )

 

Cisco and Jack In The Box report

after the close.

 

Thursday 08:30 hrs  Initial Claims 05/11

( 330K vs 323K )

Continuing Claims 05/04

( 3005K vs 3005K )

 

08:30 hrs CPI

Apr ( -0.2% vs -0.2% )

CORE CPI

Apr 0.2% vs 0.1% )

 

08:30 hrs Housing Starts

Apr ( 970K vs 1036K )

Building Permits

( 950K vs 902K )

 

10:00 hrs Philadelphia Fed

May ( 2.5 vs 1.3 )

 

10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories

5/11 ( NA vs 88 bcf )

 

JC Penney reports sales and earnings

after the close. (-0.99 & 2,689 )

 

Friday 09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment

May ( 78.5 vs 76.4 )

 

10:00 hrs Leading Economic Indicators

Apr ( 0.3% vs -0.1% )

Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals

Nine of the ten Dow Industrial groups were modestly higher. Industrials led the way forging a 2.28% gain followed by Basic materials and Consumer Services both up 1.88%. Financials rose 1.83% and Health Care 1.21%. Technology added 1.14% and Consumer Goods 1.14%, Oil and Gas added 0.75% and telecommunications 0.66%. Utilities were the only losing group, off 2.42%.

The Fed’s latest survey of loan officers showed a net 23% of banks eased lending standards, the most since 2005 and up sharply from 7.7% at the end of 2012. However, demand for the money is not there. Money is readily available. The share of business owners reported credit being hard to come by fell in March to the lowest level since 2006.

 

Market Strategies Economic Data

There was little in the way of economics reports last week that could have an adverse influence on direction of equities. Initial Unemployment Claims fell to 323K, their lowest level since January 2008, down from a consensus which called for 336K and 327K the previous week.

The Continuing Claims level fell to 3.005 mln for the week ended April 27th from 3.032 , in the previous week. The chart below shows the continued decline in unemployment claims over the past four years. The results are impressive and show the benefits of low interest rates.

 

Market Strategies

Technical Information

Support Levels S&P 500    1583 – 1587

Resistance S&P 500           1638 – 1644

Support Levels DOW          14,475 – 14,495

Resistance DOW                 15,120 – 15,180

 

Support Levels QQQ           69.80 – 70.00                  

Resistance QQQ                  73.90

Support Levels Nasdaq      3290

Resistance Nasdaq             3496

 

Market Strategies Cycles

 

Earnings season is ending and both the Dow and S&P have three consecutive days in virtually the same range: The S&P 500 range: 1,622-1,633 on Wednesday; 1623.09 to 1635.01 Thursday and 1623.71 to 1633.70 Friday. The Dow as follows: 15,056-15,106 last Wednesday; 15,105-15,144 Thursday and 15082-15118 Friday.

 

A similar range Monday would be bearish. Flat tops create market drops. On the other hand, a weak Monday could be just what the bull needs to achieve another bullish Tuesday. Every Tuesday since and including March 26th has been a bull. There have been seven in a row as top-pickers have worked the markets on Monday only to lose out the next day.

 

The bearish outlook for the week coincides with anticipated weak economic reports.

DOW MONTHLY anticipation CHART FOR MAY based on Hirsh’s Stock Trader’s Almanac

 

NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!

 

TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND

THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES

Visit:

www.princetonresearch.com/investment-strategies.htm

To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate

*Rule 17 B Attestations:

 

*Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. We were stopped out of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought  81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the two small penny stocks we represent for a total outlay of $ 4,725 is well worth the risk.

 

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

 

CONTACT

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

 

Mike King (702) 650-3000

Or

Charles Moskowitz (781) 826-8882

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

Phone: (702) 650-3000

Fax: (702) 697-8944

mike@princetonresearch.com

Visit: www.princetonresearch.com

 options trading

Options Trading