Special Note: We have been asked to help those who do not wish to make a $100,000 commitment to an account to scale back the initial investment to a $10,000 account.
We are answering this request with an account that will only trade options. However, in order to take full advantage to this new account, you really need to also subscribe to our Texting service. There is no cost involved, but in order to receive all of the trading suggestions, in a high volatility environment, we need to communicate more often than weekly.
To subscribe, simply TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302
and you will automatically be included.
$10,000 OPTIONS ONLY ACCT:
New Trades for this week:
The $10,000 Options Only account lost $ 520 last week, its twenty second week of trading.
We came into the week with a balance of $12,649.00 and with the loss last week decreased the gains to $12,129.00.
Six positions remain:
the Yahoo Nov 17 Calls,
TBT Nov 23 Calls,
XLE Nov 70 Puts,
IBM 180 Puts,
UA Nov 87.50 Calls and
LULU Nov 60 Calls.
The Open positions are highlighted in the options table below.
Approximately $ 4740 funds are in use. We came into the week a little short against the top of the S. & P. range and were quickly stopped out of those positions with a 50% loss. We also bought the TBT (leveraged interest rate calls) and got stopped out of half on the 100% UP Rule…We are now well positioned for either a continuation up, or the normal and expectable pullback. As I mentioned last week, we are climbing the “wall of worry” and are still taking it slowly with smaller positions on the short side…This is because “The TREND IS YOUR FRIEND” and it seems to be up for now. Remember that the hedge-funds are under-performing and may chase this market up for the balance of the year…CAM
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXT MESSAGE TRADE ALERTS SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302 To Get In Now
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in the October 24, October 17, October 10, October 3 and September 26 issues.
|
DATE |
TRADE |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
|
10/28 |
Bought 5 LULU November 60 Calls |
1.81 |
905 |
||
|
10/28 |
Bought 5 UA November 87.50 Calls |
2.33 |
1165 |
||
|
10/27 |
Bought 3 November IBM 180 Puts |
2.00 |
600 |
||
|
10/27 |
Bought 5 XLE November 70 Puts |
1.36 |
680 |
||
|
10/27 |
Sold 10 TBT November 23 Calls ( 100% rule ) |
.86 |
860 |
430 Gain |
|
|
10/26 |
Sold 10 ZSL November 15 Calls (50 % rule) |
.50 |
500 |
550 Loss |
|
|
10/25 |
Bought 10 ZSL November 15 Calls |
1.05 |
1050 |
||
|
10/24 |
Bought 20 TBT November 23 Calls |
.43 |
860 |
||
|
10/24 |
Sold 2 TZA November 40 Calls |
2.00 |
400 |
400 Loss |
|
|
10/21 |
Bought 2 TZA November 40 Calls |
4.00 |
800 |
||
|
10/21 |
Sold 2 Netflix ( NFLX ) November 125 Calls |
6.95 |
1390 |
270 Gain |
|
|
10/21 |
Sold 6 JPM November 32 Calls |
2.88 |
1728 |
816 Gain |
|
|
10/21 |
Sold 1 APA November 90 Call |
6.55 |
655 |
385 Gain |
|
|
10/20 |
Bought 2 Netflix NFLX Nov 125 Calls |
5.60 |
1120 |
||
|
10/20 |
Bought 12 Yahoo Nov 17 Calls |
0.80 |
960 |
||
|
10/20 |
Sold 2 APA November 90 Calls ( 100% rule ) |
5.40 |
1080 |
540 Gain |
|
|
10/18 |
Bought 6 JPM November 32 Calls |
1.52 |
912 |
||
|
10/14 |
Sold 5 October 40 TZA Calls |
1.35 |
675 |
185 Loss |
|
|
10/14 |
Bought 5 October 40 TZA Calls |
1.72 |
860 |
||
|
10/13 |
Bought 3 APA November 90 Calls |
2.70 |
810 |
||
|
10/13 |
Sold 4 TZA October 39 Calls |
2.55 |
1020 |
132 Loss |
|
|
10/13 |
Bought 4 TZA October 39 Calls |
2.88 |
1152 |
||
|
10/10 |
Bought 2 RL October 140 Puts |
2.90 |
580 |
New trades $ 10,000 account…In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 11 November; 12 December; 1 January:
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. For any questions please call 702 650 3000
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are taken from Barron’s and may be incorrect)
|
Dow 12,231.11 +422.32 +3.58% |
Nasdaq 2737.15 +99.69 +3.78% |
S&P 500 1285.09 +46.84 +3.78% |
Transportation 5011.98 +198.15 +4.11% |
Russell 2000 761.00 +48.58 +6.81% |
Nasdaq 100 2401.29 +65.36 +2.80% |
|
Gold 1747.20 +111.10 +6.8% |
Silver 3528.8 +409.5 +13.1% |
Crude 93.32 +5.92 +7.1% |
Heating Oil 306.64 +5.05 +1.7% |
Unleaded Gas 2.6461 -0.0121 -0.5% |
Natural Gas 3.923 |
|
VIX 24.53 -6.79 -21.6% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 170/100’s +43/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios |
CBOE Equity
59/100
-5/100’s
Bonds
136-28 -1-19
3.35% +0.09%
10 Yr Note
128-03 -18 2.31% +0.10%
Copper
370.60
+48.30
+15.0%
CRB Inflation
Index
323.07
+11.99
+3.85%
Barron’s Confidence
71.2%
-0.9%
S&P100
577.28
+18.81
+3.36%
5 Yr Note
122-02 -052
1.12% +0.06%
Dollar
75.09
-1.19
-1.56%
DJ Utilities
453.69
+1.03
+0.22%
AAII
Confidence
Index
Bullish
43.0
-7%
Bearish
25.0
-9.6%
Neutral
32.0%
+2.6 %
M1 Money Supply
+21.9%Oct 17th
M-2 Money.
Supply
+9.7%Oct 17th
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly And Yahoo Finance
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
To Get Text Message Trading Alerts Just Text UPDATES to 69302
Last week we bought
(A full position is $5,000)
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
Stock |
Purchase Price |
Purchase Date |
Stop/Loss |
Price/Date Sold |
Profit/(Loss) |
||
| CONN 500 |
8.50 |
10/25/11 |
7.49X |
||||
| BBVA 600 |
8.79 |
10/25/11 |
5.50X |
||||
| FTWR 5000 |
.96 |
10/24/11 |
.48x |
||||
| COF- short 500 shares |
41.80 |
10/17/11 |
Covered 40.42 10/20 |
$ 690 |
|||
| LCC 400 |
6.03 |
10/17/11 |
5.51x |
||||
| SDS 100 |
25.55 |
10/5/11 |
|||||
| CERS 2200 |
2.15 |
9/28/11 |
1.97 sco |
2.73 sold 10/25 |
$1276 |
||
| SONO |
28.89 |
9/12/11 |
26.99x |
33.04 sold 10/19 |
$ 830 |
||
| XBOR* |
1.40 |
8/12/11 |
0.70sco |
||||
| LEI* |
2.06 |
8/10/11 |
1.03x |
||||
| KAJMY |
30.45 |
3/21/11 |
29.60 sco |
||||
| LEOM* |
0.30 |
12/17/10 |
0.07sco |
||||
Previous closed out positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6th, August 15th, August 8th, August 1st and July 18th letters.
Model Portfolio Comments/Changes:
INDEX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG and SDS, whichgo up when the DOW and S&P 500 go down and down when they go up.
New Stock Option Recommendations
Option and overall Comments
We had a gain last week of $ 76 in a trending, strong week.
Our gains for the year increased to $ 76,955.
We have Seven and a half long options positions remaining, the YHOO Calls, UA Calls, LULU Calls, QCOM Calls, SPY Puts, XLE Puts, IBM Puts and a half position of TBT Calls. The stock table includes nine long stock positions: CONN, BBVA, FTWR, LCC, LEI, KAJMY, LEOM, SDS and XBOR. The SDS is a double inverse SP500 ETF.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on an hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $18,750 in the options positions and $ 42,500 in the nine long stock positions for a total of $ 61,250 with
$38,750.00 in cash.
This is our 40th letter for 2011. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes result in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the $100,000 account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
- When the option has doubled sell half the position.
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic) at the close the previous Friday or at the open on Monday.
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols have changed. We will now use a new terminology. ( stock symbol with expiration month and strike price )
- Subscribers can follow us on Twitter or call 702 650 3000 for up to date information.
|
Option |
COST |
Date |
Sold |
Date |
Profit/(Loss) |
|
| QCOM Nov 52.50 10 Lots | Calls 2.47 |
10/28/11 |
||||
| LULU Nov 60 15 Lots |
Calls 1.81 |
10/28/11 |
||||
| UA Nov 87.50 10 Lots |
Calls 2.33 |
10/28/11 |
||||
| IBM Nov180 |
5 Lots Puts 2.00
10/27/11
XLE Nov 70
10 Lots Puts 1.36
10/27/11
SPY Nov 123
15 LotsPuts 1.26
10/27/11
ZSL Nov 15 20 Lots Calls 1.05
10/25/11
.50
10/26/11 ($ 1100 )TBT Nov 23
40 Lots Calls .45
10/24/11
.90 sold half on double
10/27/11 $ 900TZA Nov 40
5 LotsCalls 4.00 10/21/11
2.00
10/24/11 ($ 1000 )YHOO Nov17
30 LotsCalls 0.80 10/20/11 NFLXNov125
4 LotsCalls 5.60 10/20/11 6.95 10/21/11 $ 540SSO Nov 44
10 LotsCalls 2.50 10/18/11 3.30 10/21/11 $ 800QQQ Nov 58
17 LotsCalls 1.40 10/18/11 1.47 10/21/11 $ 119JPM Nov 32
15 LotsCalls 1.52 10/18/11 2.88 10/21/11 $ 2040CVX Nov100
8 LotsCalls 2.80 10/17/11 5.45 10/18/11 $ 2120APA Nov 90
6 Lots
Calls 2.70 10/13/11
10/21/11 5.40 sold half on double
6.55 sold half next day
10/20/11
10/21/11 $ 810
$ 1155CSCO Jan 20 2012 Put short; longJan20;2013 CallPut/Call Spread 0.07 2/14/11
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6, August 22, August 8, August 1, July 18, July 11, July 5, June 20, May 16, April 25, April 11, March 21, March 14, March 7, February 21, 2011 February 7, 2011 January 24, 2011, December 20,2010, November 22, 2010, October 11, 2010, September 13, 2010, July 26, 2010, June 14, 2010, May 10, 2010, January 25, 2010, November 23, October 23, August 24, July 20, 2009 newsletters.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
| Monday | 09:45 hrs Chicago PMI Oct ( 60 vs 60.4 ) |
Tuesday10:00 hrs ISM-Oct ( 53 vs 51.6 )
10:00 hrs Construction Spending Sept ( 0.8vs 1.4% )
Fed Begins Two-Day MeetingWednesday07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 10/29 ( NA vs + 4.9% )
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts- Oct
08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change- Oct ( 130K vs 91K )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 10/22 ( NA vs -4.735 mln bbls )
12:30 hrs FOMC Rate Decision – No Change( .25 %)
The accompanying Fed statement should include updated forecasts for U.S. growth. A press conference by Chairman Bernanke scheduled after the rate decision.Thursday08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims 10/29 ( 400 vs 402 )
08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 10/22 ( 3700K vs 3645K )
08:30 hrs Productivity- Pre- Q3 (2.8 % vs -.07%)
08:30 hrs Unit Labor Costs – Pre Q3 (-1.0% vs 3.3%)
10:00 hrs Factory Orders – Sept (-0.5% vs -0.2%)
10:00 hrs ISM Services – Oct (53 vs 53) Friday
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls-Oct (100K vs 103)
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Private Payrolls-Oct (130 vs 137)
08:30 hrs Unemployment Rate- Oct (9.2% vs 9.1%)
08:30 hrs Hourly Earnings –Oct (0.2% vs 0.2%)
08:30 hrs Average Workweek-Oct ( 34.3 vs 34.3)
Economic Data
This week we have a plethora of economic data, fears of a recession are gone and bulls will be looking for data to confirm last week’s optimism or at least show the trajectory of the economy is stable. October’s ISM manufacturing data is expected to show expansion for the 26th straight month on strong production growth. Earnings are supportive. Auto and retail same-store sales for October come out on Tuesday and Thursday. Friday’s Unemployment data is not expected to surprise anyone.
Fundamentals ( previous letters may be seen at www.princetonresearch.com)
Investors will assess manufacturing data, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve statements. Consumer demand into the holiday season and progress of the congressional super-committee for deficit reduction will provide ample chatter. After last week’s euro-zone debt deal European headlines should recede until the G-20 summit on Thursday and Friday in Cannes, France.
Food giant Kraft reports next week as does Starbucks and Whole foods, so far 312 companies in the SP500 have reported, 77% have beaten earnings estimates, slightly above the 74% average over the past four quarters.
Technical Information
Support Levels: S&P 500 1268;1253 Resistance S&P 500 1304; 1322
DOW 12,030;11,920 Resistance DOW 12,380;12,530
QQQ 5855;5792 Resistance QQQ 5957;6035
Nasdaq 2717;2663 Resistance Nasdaq 2775;2820
CYCLES
Short term cycles this week suggest a firm market early in the week for month end window dressing and the continuing improvement from both GDP and psychology. Historically Early November price levels are maintained or exceeded at the end of November.
Rule 17B requires disclosure of payment for investor relations*
Princeton Research has received about $ 2,500 per month from Lucas ( LEI ) marked with an asterisk. Princeton has been paid for investor relations in the past and has negotiated a contract to be paid 100,000 restricted shares from Leo Motors. Princeton is paid by Baron Energy ( BROE ) to do investor relations in the amount of 300,000 shares. Princeton has also bought separate shares about 327,600 and owns the shares for its own account. On WKBT, we don’t work for them but have bought a few thousand shares for our own account. USPR paid us 200,000 restricted shares. Cross Border paid us 25,000 restricted shares and we bought and own another 25,000 purchased at higher prices.
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