Market Strategies Fundamentals
This is from the
June 6, 2016 — Where To Invest June 2016
Market Investing Strategies Newsletter
You can read the full sample issue in .pdf format HERE
June 6, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
Stocks were lower last week as a result of the disappointing Jobs report which added only 38,000 jobs, although 36,000 was abnormally due to the Verizon strike. Also, adding to the bearish employment report, employers hired 59,000 fewer workers in March and April than previously reported. The 10-Yr Note yields fell to 2- month lows while the 30-Yr Bond yields fell to almost 4 month lows.
Fed funds futures, based on the CME Group’s Fed Watch and moved on Friday to price in a 4 percent perceived chance of a June rate hike, down from 21 percent late on Thursday. Chances of a July rate increase shrank to 34 percent on Friday, from 58 percent the day before.
Stocks, of course, had a somewhat muted reaction thinking the rate increase is postponed. The S&P 500 opened at 2104, down just one point, but made a lower low than the day before at 2085.36 about 3.25 points below Thursday’s low before rebounding to a decent close at 2099, but still 6 points off on the day. The Dow made a lower low of 14 points below Thursday’s low to 17,689.68 before rebounding to 17, 807 down 66 points or 0.37% on the day. The Nasdaq also made a lower low before rebounding and closing mid-range for the day at 4942.52, gaining 9 points or + 0.18% for the week.
The Transportation Average found support at the 7640 level after the report, almost 90 points of a daily low before closing off 42 points for the week, off 0.54%. The Tranny has been lagging and needs to take out its 50-day moving average at about 7835 in order to give a sound buy signal to the overall market.
The Russell Index was the best performer leading all indexes with a 1.19% rise to 1164.13, a gain of 13.68 points. The Russell 2000 closed above its December 29th and 30th high of 1160, which was not unimpressive. It is now poised to challenge its December 15 highs at the 1204 level much depending on the annual rebalancing. The Russell rebalancing preliminary list will be known in about a week and the final list is known a week later with a trade date of the last Friday in June. This is usually the biggest trading day of the year. The purpose of the rebalance is to keep the better stocks..
Volatility continued to decline. The VXX ( $ 13.02 ) – $ 0.94 or down 6.7% last week after dropping $ 1.51 or 10% the week before. The VXX peaked at 30.85 on February 11th when the Dow visited its yearly lows at 15,503. The best trade on the board has been being short the Ultra VIX triple volatility index ( UVXY: $ 9.99 ) down 1.50 after – 2.65 or 19.6% the previous week, has been in a huge downtrend from Feb 11th when it reached 61.92. The S&P continues to look decent on the charts.
The markets continue to be dogged by election uncertainty. If the results of the FBI investigation were to be made public in June and the outcome was sufficiently damaging to Secretary Clinton where it suddenly became likely that she would have to withdraw from the race, this would be unsettling for financial markets. The FBI investigation is likely to be known before the Democratic convention at the end of July.
U.S. Exports rose in April to their high for the year. The strong dollar is fading. Exports of goods and services increased 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted $ 182.8 billion in April. The greenback’s rise in value against other currencies since mid-2014 made U.S. products expensive. The dollar peaked in January.
This chart of the July Silver on a daily basis has held its support at the all- important $16.00
level and on a short term basis can rally back to resistance at the $16.60-16.75 level. The options
purchased on Thursday were SLV 6/15 Calls, and we have already taken a profit from $ .38 to $ .69
on the first half on Friday. The point of this trade is not to play for $ .25 or .30, but to be in position if
we move back to the resistance closer to $17.00, which would correspond to a price for our ETF of
around $16.50-.75. The value of our second half position would be in the neighborhood of $1.50,
and if I am wrong, we have already taken back…..CAM
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