Read the July 11, 2016
Where To Invest in July 2016
Market Investing Strategies Newsletter
in .pdf format here
July 5, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest in July 2016
Best Stocks To Buy in July 2016
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
How To Trade Options
Proven Profits Trading Success
Results From Some Of Our Recent Trade Alerts
See Trade Table For Last Week’s Trades:
134% Profits on HL Calls in 55 Days
51% Loss on TBT Calls in 3 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
18% Loss on QQQ Calls in 5 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
107% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
28% Profits on NEM Calls in 13 Days
105% Profits on SIG Puts in 14 Days
97% Profits on SJM Puts in 7 Days
207% Profits on SIG Puts in 6 Days
70% Profits on GLD Calls in 1 Day
Join Today to Start Getting Profits Like These.
We Do The Analysis Work
We Send You The Trades
You Make The Trades
You Take Your Gains
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit: PrincetonResearch.com/join.htm
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
SPECIAL RATES Available for VIP MEMBERSHIP
Go To http://www.princetonresearch.com/join.htm
To get the lowest full membership rates available now.
$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Loss For The Week $ 180
2016 YTD Profits $ 6337
Over 63% Returns
There are 2 Open positions:
Long 3 HL Sept 3.50 Calls
Long 10 AA July 9 Calls
Written 3 HL Sept 6.00 Calls against long position
Funds in Use = $ 831
Well, the second half started out pretty darn well, all things considered. I didn’t want to be particularly
heavy in the market and although I was right on the money in the midweek note on the bonds I had
yet another loss in the TBT calls. Sometimes you can have the facts and the numbers right and still
manage to lose money in options.
The loss for the week was only $180, bringing YTD gains back to $6337. However, the open positions
don’t look too bad. We own 10 AA 7/9 calls at $ .73 (closed $ .89) and we now have a covered write
in the HL 9/3.50 calls and the 9/6.00 calls. The strategy may escape some, so I’ll explain the reasoning.
We owned 6 of the HL 9/3.50 calls @ $ .85 when the stock was $3.85 for a cost of $510. We sold the
first half of the position last week @ $1.99 and took $597 out of the trade, so no matter what, we have
no risk in the balance. The problem when a trade goes so far in the money it becomes a proxy for
the stock; For example; when the stock hit $5.60 the options were only $2.10 bid…no premium…So, in order to protect the trade I sold the 9/6 calls and got paid $ .52 and took in an additional $156 meaning we now
have a net profit of $753 from a cost of $510. We now have a spread from our long @ $3.50 to the calls
sold @ $6.00. On the remaining position, a $2.50 spread that costs NOTHING and at the close Friday
was worth about $3 / spread to us, or an additional $750.
The A.A.I.I. numbers in the market lab still show some serious ambivalence. Bull numbers were up, but
still show us 20% below average, bear numbers are 10% below average while neutral show us well over
average by 33%. The argument can be a bit confounding since we are just under new all-time highs, and
usually the public is overly bullish. Not so this time, which argues for more rally to suck “everyone” in from
the sidelines.
Conversely, Mike makes the point later in the letter that mid- July generally starts the “worst 4
months for the market..” Another twist to add is that some of the more defensive issues, stocks that
people with concerns about the market on the way down, that pay good dividends and make “things” that
all consumers still need to buy, General Mills (GIS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Church & Dwight (a big pick of Mikes much lower..(CHD), and Walmart (WMT) are all at new all-time highs already. These are running ahead of the topping action that we see at reversals. So, what’s an investor to do? We are staying lightly invested, probably missing out on some of the more volatile names like AAPL, GOOG, NFLX that seem to be struggling anyway, and making trades that have a higher degree of certainty and better risk/reward profiles…CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
07/08 | Sold 10 TBT July 30.50 Calls
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
0/18 | 180 | 180 Loss | |
07/07 | Bought 10 TBT July 30.50 Calls | 0.36 | 360 | ||
07/06 | Sold 3 HL September 6.00 Calls written against remaining 3 lot long position | 0.52 | 156 | 156 Credit | |
07/01 | Sold 3 HL September 3.50 Calls | 1.99 | 597 | 342 Gain | |
06/27 | Bought 4 AA July 9 Calls | 0.54 | 216 | ||
06/24 | Bought 6 AA July 9 Calls | 0.86 | 516 | ||
05/03 | Bought 6 HL September 3.50 Calls | 0.85 | 510 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
SPECIAL RATES Available for VIP MEMBERSHIP
Go To http://www.princetonresearch.com/join.htm
To get the lowest full membership rates available now.
New Trades Will Be TEXTED To MEMBERS
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
Dow
18,146.74 +197.37 +1.10% |
Nasdaq
4956.76 +94.19 |
S&P 500
2129.90 +26.95 +1.28% |
Transportation
7683.28 +125.66 +1.66% |
Russell 2000
1177.36 +20.59 +1.78% |
Nasdaq100
4528.36 +90.92 +2.05% |
Gold (spot)
1356.76 +19.90 +1.5% |
Silver
2009.9 +51.1 +2.6% |
Crude
45.41 -3.58 -7.3% |
Heating Oil
141.23 -9.92 -6.6% |
Unleaded Gas
1.3708 -0.1427 -9.4% |
Natural Gas
2.801 -0.186 -6.2% |
VIX
13.20 -1.57 -10.6% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 169/100’s +72/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 64/100’s 0/100’s
|
Bonds
176-30 +3-08 2.11% -.11% |
10 Yr. Note
132-254+23 1.37%-0.06%
|
Copper
211.90 -9.80 -4.4% |
CRB Inflation
Index 187.17. -7.09 -3.7% |
Barron’s* Confidence
64.2 -1.1 |
S&P100
942.25 +12.57 +1.35% |
5 Yr. Note
122-127+083 0.96% -0.04%
|
Dollar
96.28 +0.64 +0.7% |
DJ Utilities
717.37 +1.40 +0.20% |
AAII
Confidence Index
Long Term Average |
Bullish
31.1% +2.2%
38.74% |
Bearish
26.7% -6.7%
30.30% |
Neutral
42.2% +4.5%
30.96% |
M! Money
Supply +6.42% June 27th
|
M2 Money
Supply +6.85% June 27th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2080 2133
Dow 17,870 18,352
QQQ 107.70 111.60
Transports 7355 7735
NASDAQ 4840 50.40
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/
Date Sold |
Profit/
(Loss) |
||
PYPL 150 | 37.65 | 06/08 | |||||
SCO 20 | 89.28 | 05/13 | |||||
HL 1000 | 3.95 | 05/03 | |||||
MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
NVAX 500 | 5.38 | 04/18 | |||||
SCO 20 | 109.88 | 04/12 | |||||
EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
SUN 300 | 29.50 | 02/23 | |||||
EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There was one closed out long option position. The TBT July 30.50 Calls were stopped out on the 50% Rule for a debit of $ 360. 6 Hecla ( HL ) September Calls were sold at $ 0.52 for a credit of $ 312 against the 6 lot long position established on May 3rd.
The net weekly loss for the options trading was $ 360.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits decreased to $16,230.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 16 positions:
AA, EYES (2), HL, MOS(2), NBGGY, NVAX, PYPL, REPR, SAN, SCO(2),SUN,TEXQY, and TWTR.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
We are using a total of $65,092 for the 16 open long stock positions.
The Open Option Positions require $ 1974.
This increases the margin requirement to $ 67,066.
The 6 written Hecla Call positions reduce the margin requirement by $ 312 lowering the margin requirement to $ 66,754,
leaving $ 33,246 in cash.
Open position losses decreased by $ 1,943 as stock prices improved.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit: PrincetonResearch.com/join.htm
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
SPECIAL RATES Available for VIP MEMBERSHIP
Go To http://www.princetonresearch.com/join.htm
To get the lowest full membership rates available now.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
TBT July 30.50
20 lots |
Calls
0.36 |
07/07/16 | 0.18
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
07/08/1016 | ( $ 360 ) |
HL Sept 6
Covered Write 6 lots |
Calls
0.52 |
0.52 | 07/06.2016 | $ 312 Credit | |
AA July 9
8 lots |
Calls
0.54 |
06/27/16 | |||
AA July 9
12 lots |
Calls
0.86 |
06/24/16 | |||
HL Sept 3.50
6lots remain |
Calls
0.85 |
05/03/16 | 1.99
( 100% Profit Rule plus Gap ) |
07/01/2016 | $ 684 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
MONDAY | Bank of the Ozarks OZRK ( 0.59 vs 0.51 )
Markets React to Chinese inflation data from the weekend.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the economy. Euro-area Finance Ministers meet to discuss Italian banks and Greece.
Alcoa AA ( 0.10 vs 0.19 ) VOXX Intl VOXX ( -0.10 vs -0.03 ) |
TUESDAY | Fastenal FAST ( 0.48 vs 0.48 )
Attorney Loretta Lynch testifies before a House committee on the Hillary Clinton email case 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories May ( +0.2% vs +0.6% ) An International court rules on a challenge by the Philippines to China’s claim to most of the South China Sea. AAR Corp AIR ( 0.43 vs 0.36 ) ADTRAN ADTN ( 0.23 vs 0.10 ) Healthcare Services Corp HCSG ( 0.26 vs 0.23 ) |
WEDNESDAY | AngloDynamics ANGO ( 0.16 vs 0.14 ) Commerce Bancshares CBSH ( 0.68 vs 0.75 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 07/02 ( NA vs -2.6% ) 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-ag June ( NA vs + 1.0% ) 08:30 hrs Import Prices ex-oil June ( NA vs 0.3% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 07/02 ( BA vs -2.223 Mln Bbls) 14:00 hrs Fed’s Beige Book July ( NA vs NA ) 14:00 hrs Treasury Budget June ( NA vs $ 50.5Bln ) CSX CSX ( 0.44 vs 0.56 ) NantKwest NK ( -0.13 ) Yum Brands YUM ( 0.74 vs 0.69 ) |
THURSDAY | BlackRock BLK ( 4.81 vs 4.96 ) Delta Airlines DAL ( 1.51 vs 1.27 ) Fairchild Semi FCS ( 0.18 vs 0.12 ) JP Morgan Chase JPM ( 1.43 vs 1.54 ) First Republic Bank FRC ( 0.89 vs 0.73 )
Progressive PGR ( 0.34 vs 0.62 ) Shaw Communications SJR ( 0.35 vs 0.42 ) Taiwan Semi TSM ( 2.61 vs 3.08 ) Knoll KNL ( 0.42 vs 0.36 ) Peak Resorts SKIS ( 0.63 v 0.70 ) Bank of England announces its post-Brexit interest rate decision. 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 07/09 ( 265K vs 254K ) Continuing Claims 07/02 ( NA vs 2124K ) 08:30 hrs PPI June ( 0.3% vs 0.4% ) CORE PPI ( 0.2% vs 0.2% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 07/09 ( NA vs 39bcf ) Cintas CTAS ( 1.01 vs 0.86 ) MB Financial MBFI ( 0.55 vs 0.52 ) Independent Bank INDB ( 0.73 ) Resource Connection RECN ( 0.21 vs 0.21 ) MB Financial MBFI ( 0.55 vs 0.52 )
|
FRIDAY | Citigroup C ( 1.11 vs 1.45 ) U.S. Bancorp USB ( 0.80 vs 0.80 ) Wells Fargo WFC
( 1.01 vs 1.03 ) First Horizon FHN ( 0.23 vs 0.22 ) PNC PNC ( 1.76 vs 1.88 ) 08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing July ( 5.0 vs 6.0 ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales June ( 0.2% vs 0.5% ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales ex-auto June ( 0.4% vs 0.4% ) 08:30 hrs CPI June ( +0.3% vs +0.2% ) 08:30 hrs CORE CPI June ( 0.2% vs 0.2% ) 09:15 hrs Capacity Utilization June ( 75.0% vs 74.9% ) Industrial Production June ( 0.2% vs -0.4% 10:00 hrs Business Inventories May ( 0.2% vs 0.1% ) 10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment July ( 93 vs 94.3 )
U.S. Oil Rig Count decreased last week. Nat Gas rig count fell by 1 to 89. The oil rig count rose by 10 to 351 making a total US rig count of 440. Crude closed at $ 45.41 Off $ 3.58 for the week. Natural Gas closed the week at $ 2.801, down 0.186.
|
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Last week’s rally virtually erased all losses from the Brexit vote market rout. As of last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials had bounced back making a new yearly high at 18,166.77 not far from the all-time high May 2015 at 18,351.36. The DJIA closed at 18,146.74, up 197.37 or +1.10%.
The S&P 500 likewise gained 27 points to 2129.90 or + 1.28% making a new high close for the year and within just a few points of the all-time high made last May at 2137. The NASDAQ also put in a nice week gaining 94.19 points to 4956.76, up 1.94%. NASDAQ continues to lag DJIA and S&P 500 and is still negative year-to-date. The Dow Jones Transportation average rebounded from a dismal performance the previous 2 weeks gaining 125.66 points or + 1.66% to 7683 and climbing back to challenge its 200-day price moving average at about 7700. The DJT continues to be the laggard.
The Russell 2000 rose 20.59 to 1177.36, up 1.78%, but still below June’s high of 1190 and last December’s highs of 1205.
The Dow recovered in just 8 days 1,083 points and the S&P 238 points. The markets seemed to be effectively following the historical seasonal pattern associated with incumbent party victories. This would suggest Hillary Clinton will be the next President. S&P 500 is back on track and following the typical all-election year pattern.
Consumer credit expanded by $ 18.6 bln in May, more than the Briefing.com consensus of $15.3 bln and April’s $13.4 bln. The probability of any rate hikes by year-end is now just 24% according to the CME website. The strong jobs number failed to dent the Treasury Market which closed at a new all time high. The TLT 20+ Treasury Bond Fund ETF closed at 143.60.
The Brexit turmoil has pushed central banks of major economies to adopt a more dovish stance to their already benign policies. The FOMC July increase is most likely off the table, and also now potentially one increase, down from two, is possible for the second-half of 2016. If the markets are to go higher there is a need for at least a whiff of inflation and for Fed officials to lay off the rate hike scenarios.
The lower the yield, the lower the returns investors get from their bonds. That’s important because in periods where yields are near zero, many investors prefer to buy precious metals rather than bonds. In this manner, in the current stock market turmoil, part of the money that would normally go to assets paying a yield is going to gold and silver instead.
The following stocks were recommended in last week’s tabloid. In parenthesis is their closing price a week ago, Friday July 1st: Cambrex closed this past Friday July 8th at $ 54.16 ( CBM: $ 51.75 ) A O Smith Corporation $ 89.24; ( AOS $ 87.21 ) Thor Industries $ 71.19 ( THO: $ 69.18 ) Worthington Industries $ 43.67 ( WOR: $ 42.01 ) LGI Homes $ 34.01 ( LGIH: $ 32.84 ) Hecla Mining $ 6.05 ( HL: $ 5.65 ). We would take profits in these uncertain times or recommend stops at Friday’s lows.
New Trade Ideas for an August Seasonal:
Biotechnology sector enters its historical favorable season in August. iShares NASDAQ Biotech (IBB) could be bought on dips below $242.50. The stop loss is $229.90 and auto sell is $350.24. A 16.0% average gain has occurred over the last 15 years while an average gain of 31.3% has taken place the most recent 5 years. Biotech had been hot in recent years and even though valuations are still arguably elevated, this is where growth can still be found. It is also quite likely that this sector will play a significant part in the next secular bull market. Unlike other areas of the market, IBB has not recovered fully from its January plunge. It has traded below $250 per share on several occasions over the past four months and each time it did it proved to be a good time to buy.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The Employment Situation report was a big headline beat, but some underlying details were not consistent with an employment picture that can be called the largest gain in eight months. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 287,000 (Briefing.com consensus 180,000). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 147,000 per month.
May nonfarm payrolls were revised to 11,000 from 38,000. The downward revision to May nonfarm private payrolls resulted in the first negative reading for that series since 2010. April nonfarm payrolls revised upward to 144,000 from 123,000. However, April’s initial estimate of 160,000 jobs created was revised down by 16,000 to just 144,000 jobs. This means that for three out of the four months of this year we have seen downward revisions, and that the average revision has been a loss of 9,000 jobs. This suggests some weakness in the labor market.
June average hourly earnings were up 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.2% in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.6%. The average workweek was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4) versus 34.4 in May. June manufacturing workweek was down 0.1 to 40.7 hours. Factory overtime was up 0.1 to 3.3 hours.
Private sector payrolls increased by 265,000 (Briefing.com consensus 178,000). May private sector payrolls were revised lower to -6,000 from 25,000.
Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
Establishment Survey | |||||
Nonfarm Payrolls | 287K | 11K | 144K | 186K | 233K |
Goods-Producing | 9K | -41K | -12K | -7K | -20K |
Construction | 0K | -16K | -6K | 37K | 13K |
Manufacturing | 14K | -16K | 5K | -29K | -16K |
Service-Providing | 256K | 35K | 159K | 174K | 242K |
Retail Trade | 30K | 3K | -2K | 42K | 52K |
Financial | 16K | 14K | 21K | 14K | 8K |
Business | 38K | 18K | 57K | 31K | 35K |
Temporary help | 15K | -19K | 10K | -2K | -2K |
Education/Health | 59K | 52K | 47K | 46K | 77K |
Leisure/Hospitality | 59K | -3K | 15K | 18K | 37K |
Government | 22K | 17K | -3K | 19K | 11K |
Average Workweek | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
Production Workweek | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.7 |
Factory Overtime | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
Aggregate Hours Index | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Household Survey | |||||
Household Survey | |||||
Civilian Unemp. Rate | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% |
Civilian Labor Force | 414K | -458K | -362K | 396K | 555K |
Civilian Employed | 67K | 26K | -316K | 246K | 530K |
Civilian Unemployed | 347K | -484K | -46K | 151K | 24K |
The uptick in the unemployment rate was a function of a slight expansion in the labor force participation rate. This followed a 0.2% decline in the participation rate as more people sought work and a 0.3% decline in the Unemployment rate in May.
The trade deficit widened to $41.10 billion in May from $37.40 billion in April. That was worse than the Briefing.com consensus, which expected the deficit to hit $40.00 billion. Exports were down $0.30 billion to $182.40 billion while imports increased $3.40 billion to $223.50 billion. The real goods deficit increased $3.60 billion to $61.10 billion, which will be a negative for Q2 GDP since it is above the first quarter average of $60.50 billion. The numbers indicate relative strength in the U.S. economy when compared to the rest of the world.
Category | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB | JAN |
Trade Deficit | -$41.1B | -$37.4B | -$35.5B | -$44.0B | -$42.3B |
Exports | $182.4B | $182.7B | $180.2B | $182.2B | $179.8B |
Imports | $223.5B | $220.1B | $215.7B | $226.2B | $222.1B |
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (aka The ISM Services Index) increased to 56.5 in June from 52.9 in May. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was pegged at 53.3.
The June improvement was driven by growth in most categories. Business Activity/Production increased to 59.5 from 55.1, New Orders increased to 59.9 from 54.2, Employment ticked up to 52.7 from 49.7, and New Export Orders improved to 53.0 from 49.0.
The June report represented the 77th consecutive expansionary (i.e. above 50) reading and it was the highest mark of the year. However, the true test is likely to take place in the upcoming months as the index approaches a multi-year high near 60.0. Conversely, Prices slipped to 55.5 from 55.6 and Backlog of Orders declined to 47.5 from 50.0.
Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
Non-Manufacturing ISM index | 56.5 | 52.9 | 55.7 | 54.5 | 53.4 |
Business Activity | 59.5 | 55.1 | 58.8 | 59.8 | 57.8 |
New Orders | 59.9 | 54.2 | 59.9 | 56.7 | 55.5 |
Employment | 52.7 | 49.7 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 49.7 |
Deliveries (nsa) | 54.0 | 52.5 | 51.0 | 51.0 | 50.5 |
Inventories (nsa) | 55.5 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
Exports (nsa) | 53.0 | 49.0 | 56.5 | 58.5 | 53.5 |
Imports (nsa) | 54.0 | 53.5 | 54.0 | 53.0 | 55.5 |
Prices Paid | 55.5 | 55.6 | 53.4 | 49.1 | 45.5 |
Market Strategies Cycles
Selling the September S&P 500 futures contract on or about July 15 and holding until on or about July 24 has a 61.8% success rate for the Stock Trader’s Almanac registering 21 wins against 13 losses in the last 34 years. The best win was $19,150 in 2002, and the worst loss was in 2009, posting a $12,650 bereavement. This trade had been successful in 13 of 15 years from 1990 to 2004. However since then it has nearly the opposite record, posting losses in 8 of 10 years from 2005-2014.
In these recent years, weakness did materialize however; it was not perfectly aligned with the window defined by this trade. In some years weakness arrived early and was fleeting wile in other years it was later and lasted into the early part of August. In 2015 this seasonal weakness trade returned and was nearly perfectly aligned with the seasonal trend. Typical summer weakness continued well into August and September, fueled by the Chinese bear market and the Greek Default.
This year the setup is compelling again but for different reasons as the market has rallied to surprise most despite Brexit, US Presidential fears, heightened global terrorism and domestic turmoil, keeps this market is on shaky ground. Options traders can buy September Vertical Put Spreads.
Looking at the chart above, you will see the average price tendency is for a summer sell-off that usually begins in mid-July and lasts until mid-October. Part of the reason is perhaps due to the fact that July starts the worst four months of the year for NASDAQ and also falls in the middle of the worst six months for DJIA and S&P 500. Mid-July is also when we typically kick off earnings season, where a strong early month rally can fade, as active traders may have “bought the rumor” or bought ahead on anticipation of earnings expectations and then turn around and “sell the fact” once the news hits the street.
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.45 )*
Fourth quarter preliminary net revenues will exceed $3.2 million, representing a slight increase over the $3.1 million of the previous quarter. Sales are led by the Company’s proprietary infusion products. The Company’s fiscal year ended February 29, 2016.
Andy Sealfon, Company President and CEO commented, “The military has expressed interest in our products for utilization in emergency applications as well as use in VA hospitals. We believe that because of our performance standards and the reliability of our products, we will provide them with great value and benefits.”
The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and the newer FreedomEdge™ Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
NHIA is a trade association representing the interests of entities providing infusion and specialty pharmacy products and services to home-based infusion patients.
The Company’s website is RMSMedicalproducts.com.
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 5.96 )
The stock moved from approximately $5 a share to approximately $6.50 from May 1 to early June. If you look at the chart pattern of the stock the big volume came in on May 9 which coincided with the Louis Navellier recommendation that I sent to you on that date. He recommended 5 stocks of which 3 (including Enzo) all had similar chart patterns with significant increases in trading volume. I don’t know how much of that volume came from individual investors but the buying had lots of 100-500 share trades which tells me that individuals, not institutional investors were strong buyers of Enzo.
During the same time frame the Russell Index probably started to see some front running by Index funds or ETF’s to take a position into Enzo’s stock as they looked to be included in the Index. These funds mirror the Russell Index. The Russell is a two edged sword. The positive edge is that for Enzo it probably means 2-3 million shares will be bought. Enzo was included in the 2000 and 3000 Russell Index on June 10.
The Russell will hedge their long positions by shorting the stock against their long position to go neutral if they think the market shows weakness or if the fundamentals of the company change. If you remember when Enzo was removed from the Index a couple of years ago the short position was 4 million plus shares and the day Enzo was removed the shorts delivered their long position against the short to flatten the position. The short position on that day dropped to 1 million shares. Enzo had a conference call on their third quarter release last week and I didn’t see any change in the fundamentals. However those individual investors that bought on the Nave
llier recommendation don’t know the Company and saw that they reported a loss for the quarter (even though they beat estimates) and may have taken profits.
The market in general was down 5 straight days and the index’s that got long the stock may have shorted to hedge their position. That can be confirmed on the first two week short report due out next week. The short position at the end of May was 937,000 shares down from the mid- month short of 1,010,700.The stock has come down some 15% from its high which is not a big deal. To me it is just a technical move.
The stock is approaching oversold territory and as the fear grows the opportunity becomes bigger. The fundamentals haven’t changed and in fact have become stronger with the latest AmpiProbe approval. Enzo has cash of $50 million and no debt. There are 7 more cases to get settled in Delaware which can provide significant additions to the cash position. AmpiProbe will have more submissions to the New York regulatory agency this year. AmpiProbe is cheaper, better and faster than existing technology and that is a $3 billion market.
This is an awesome potential for a 47 million share company and who knows what will happen if the NIH has positive statements on their Optiquel test for Uveitis. The stock is 50% owned by Institutions and funds, 15% by insiders and I guess 10% by hedge funds. That leaves some 11 million shares in the float. If the Russell causes 2-3 million shares to be bought the float then become 8-9 million shares. Good news can really move the price.
Gold Mining USA OTC: GMUI ( 0.01 )*
Has both mining activities in Australia and the U.S. Gold Mining USA Inc is an emerging natural resources company focused on developing metallurgical and mining projects. The Company’s business model is to acquire projects with the potential to provide significant resources through exploratory drilling and generate value through their development, joint venture or divestment. GMUI has a team of experts who will manage all mining operations available on their website. In addition GMUI has an Offtake Agreement with a prestigious Swiss-based Gold buyer and Refiner to purchase its gold production at the spot price at the London Bullion Market ( LBMA ) on the day gold is collected.
Australia and Nevada provide the opportunities to exploit smaller, undeveloped or previously mined gold resources that are of no interest to the large mining companies. In addition, there are numerous small hard rock and alluvial gold mines which have viable gold resources but are unable to raise the funds to start up or continue operations.
The company has signed an ongoing agreement with Cardno, a professional infrastructure and environmental services company, to assist in the evaluation and implementation of a work program on one of its North America properties. Steve Craig, a well-known Certified Professional Geologist, will be heading up the efforts on the project.
An initial target acquisition, Mt Tymn, provides an opportunity to enter the gold mining arena in Australia on a small scale with the confidence of total outlay recovery and good profits, sufficient to expand operations by acquisition of similar nearby deposits to continue positive cash flow mining and commence an exploration program capable of even greater rewards.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OTCQB:OGES 0.33) *
Oakridge global energy is a developer, designer and manufacturer of proprietary energy storage solutions. The Company is based out of Florida’s “space coast” near Kennedy Space Center. They make premium quality, proprietary batteries, battery systems and lithium ion cells that are built for maximum performance over the traditional lead/acid batteries. OGES, proudly manufacturing in America since 1986, produces batteries for military, consumer, government, and industrial applications. Target market priorities include golf cars and other recreational vehicles, electronics, and devices requiring rechargeable batteries.
Oakridge Energy produces highly reliable, sustainable and dependable batteries for mobile power sources. Based on size and weight, OGES products deliver a higher capacity than comparable competitor batteries. OGES batteries are higher in quality, longer lasting and safer to use. These batteries have undergone and passed rigorous military testing in underwater and aerial vehicles proving to be high/low pressure tolerant. Most significant, OGES batteries are superior performing yet competitive in the market.
Martac Maritime Tactical Systems, Inc., MARTAC recently conducted very successful field trials on the Inter-coastal waterway in Palm Bay, Florida. MARTAC is a Melbourne, Florida based company that designs and produces the Man-Portable Tactical Autonomous Systems (MANTAS) that can reach extreme high speeds and operate anywhere in the world. These vehicles are designed to be used in numerous applications including naval fleet protection, mine warfare, port and harbor security patrol, antipiracy, search and rescue, and many others. shows our high quality and high performance gets us into the military space at a time when made in USA is of critical strategic importance.
Freedom Trucks shows that Oakridge can outperform Tesla and the “Tesla of trucks” – trucks are much more difficult and laborious to power than cars – because of the Oakridge high power high energy
dense batteries, we need only 180 OGES batteries to power the interstate truck that pulls an
80,000 lb trailer, whereas it would take 208,000 Tesla/Panasonic
Lithium ion batteries deliver twice the energy of nickel cadmium batteries and are the fastest growing battery segment. Their growth and demand dynamically forward trending. They are lightweight and easy to maintain. They deliver superior electro-chemical output and provide highest energy density for weight, non-metallic and are rechargeable. In 2015, the OGES Pro Series golf car was launched at the annual PGA show, the largest golf show in the world. OGES plans to have a new factory producing its patented thin film solid state lithium ion batteries by 2017. OGES is commencing delivery of a small format prismatic to help several smart card customers reach the next generation. Their growth will be serviced by the new factory. These batteries are also in a rapidly growing demand for a variety of applications.
Oakridge has recently continued expansion of its ISO certified manufacturing facility and warehouse in Palm Bay, with the support of Florida Governor Rick Scott. The new facility represents a $270 million investment, increasing the size of the manufacturing plant to 70,000 sq-ft to accommodate the growing demand for OGES batteries. Production is expected to increase from 250,000 to 25 million cells per year by 2018. The company’s growth will provide 1000 Americans with new jobs; this is part of the company’s commitment to support domestic employment. Overseas, Oakridge Global Energy Solutions Limited (Hong Kong) is a subsidiary company that operates for sales and service in Asia.
iSIGN Media Solutions Inc ( ISDSF: $ 0.1051 )
is public company trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture market under the symbol ISD (TSX-V: ISD), and in the United States on the OTC under the symbol of ISDSF. The web site is www.isignmedia.com
iSIGN is a Software as a Service (“SaaS”) company whose US patented software (patent # 8,781,887 B2, received in July 2014) is a unique ‘push and pull’ technology that utilizes Bluetooth and Wi-Fi to ‘push’ messages in any language to mobile devices within a 300 ft (100 meter) radius of our technology, while gathering valuable information from the interaction of our technology with mobile devices within range of our hardware. Recently one of the largest insurance companies in the world categorized the smart antenna as a security device and has given an amusement park a 15-20% discount on their insurance premiums. Please go to “ priority posts” to view recent events.
Recently, a major North American insurance company has categorized the smart antenna as a safety and security device which will open new markets for iSIGN especially in amusement centers, malls and commercial real estate projects.
Through iSIGN’s reseller, We Build Apps, an installation of approximately 500 Smart Antennas into Crocker Park, a roughly 78 acre shopping complex in Ohio, consisting of retail stores, restaurants, residential apartment buildings and office building is close to be signed This complex is managed by Stark Enterprises who manage a total of 16 properties. The potential is for an expansion into the other properties who can also achieve a reduction in their insurance premium costs.
Technology Overview
The patented and proprietary technology does not involve apps and related downloads in order to receive and view messages and, as messages are delivered by Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, is capable of interacting with all cell phones including I Phones and androids. The second hardware unit, the Smart Player, contains all the features of the Smart Antenna, while adding the ability to manage content on digital screens at the same time.
eHealth Consortium Group in Australia Update / June 22, 2016
According to our reseller, JEA Technologies, eHealth Consortium Group’s intention is to start installations in hospitals located in the State of Victoria. Installations into hospitals located in the States of New South Wales, Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and Australian Capital Territory would follow later.
As advised by JEA, the State of Victoria has a population of 4.6 million people and has 24 major government owned and operated hospitals in the Melbourne Metropolitan area, as well as 11 private hospital corporations.
The projected number of Smart Antennas per hospital, ranges from 10 to 15, which will be determined once site surveys at each hospital are completed. Installations are expected to be in: (i) each public entrance, installed into the entrance’s digital signage or the hospital way finding kiosks (information systems that guide people through a physical environment and enhance their understanding and experience of the space); (ii) the public food courts of the hospital’s cafeteria areas; (iii) the Accident & Emergency departments where there are long waiting times; and (iv) public waiting areas.
The total number of Smart Antennas for the 35 hospitals in the State of Victoria is expected to be from a minimum of 350 to a maximum of 525 for these hospitals and would increase as installations expand into the other 7 States. iSIGN revenues will be derived from the sale of the Smart Antenna units as well as the monthly data management/message broadcasting fees.
Previous Developments
In late October 2015 iSIGN signed a Licensing/Original Equipment Manufacturer Agreement with Rich Multimedia Technologies (“RMT”) to integrate iSIGN’s Smart Antenna into RMT’s Tele-Digital Store Front Kiosk (essentially a digital signage kiosk). iSIGN will receive a licensing fee based on built units and will also receive a data management fee once the Kiosk is activated. The total fee per Kiosk is $3 US per day. RMT is immediately constructing 5,000 Kiosks for Mexico (airport, transit system and government offices) and has a roll-out plan for a further 3,600 Kiosks into various international airports in the US and Canada by the end of calendar 2016. Based upon a $3 US per day per kiosk fee, the revenue opportunity from this one installation is $9.417 million annually, once all 8,600 Kiosks are build and activated. The profit margins are 60-70 percent of revenues. Rich Multi Media is presently in five airports in the United States and is presently integrating approximately 600 Isign’s Smart Antenna in all there kiosks.
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to buy and they have done well.
The table is hypothetical. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below.
Kroger (KR: $ 35.18 ) was bought at $ 35.71 and continues to look good.
We bought the HOG at $ 45.
The HDGE was bought at $ 10.40. Place a stop close only sale at $ 10.17. The HDGE goes up when the market goes Down. It is a good hedge against long positions.
We are still interested in the Flushing Financial and finally bought FFIC at our theoretical buy limit.
Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
DY | Dycom | Materials. Construction Cell Towers internet Infrastructure | 25 | 1.1 | 2.7B | 94.98 | 86.71 | 84x |
BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 130.09 | Sell Short
132.95 06/09
|
134.40x
Try to sell
|
KR | Kroger | Processor and Retailer Foods | 15 | 0.31 | 34B | 37.86 | 35.71
6/14/16 |
Stop not entered |
HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.05 | 3.95 | 4.27x |
FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 20.48 | 19.10
06/27 |
18.45x |
SUN | Sunoco | Oil and Gas Refining and marketing | 10 | 0.2 | 2.1B | 28.72 | 29.50
06/27/16 |
27.10sco |
AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 9.82 | 7.05 | Sell
|
SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies | 16 | 1 | 4B | 29.80 | 27.30 | 30x stopped out at 30 |
HOG | Harley Davidson | Motorcycles and related products | 11 | 1.32 | 8B | 48.73 | 45 bought June 10th
|
new stop at 46 |
CHD | Church & Dwight | Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer | 25 | 3 | 10.6B | 101.31 | 79.80
01/26/16 |
Sold at 94.20 |
T | AT&T | Communications | 36 | 1.54 | 211.7B | 42.61 | 34.10 | 37.78x |
VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.44 | 30.30
Bought |
Merging with Alaska |
ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 5.94 | 6.05
Originally bought at $ 2.78 8/24/15 |
5.68x |
BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | Buy on a close above 13.34 | 13.10 | 13.80x stopped out 6/10 |
HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 10.47
|
Bought at 10.40 on 06/20 | 10.17x
Stop Close only |
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit: PrincetonResearch.com/join.htm
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Go To: PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
SPECIAL RATES Available for VIP MEMBERSHIP
Go To http://www.princetonresearch.com/join.htm
To get the lowest full membership rates available now.
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Charles Moskowitz
(781) 826-8882
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street,
Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Fax: (702) 697-8944
Where To Invest Now
July 11, 2016 Investing Strategies
`