May 23, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
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Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest June 2016
Best Stocks To Buy June 2016
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
Proven Profits Trading Success
Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:
107% Profits on SIG May 105 Puts
28% Profits on NEM May 33 Calls in 13 Days
50% Loss on FB May 121 Calls 50 in 7 Days
105% Profits on SIG May 105 Puts in 14 Days
97% Profits on SJM May 125 Puts in 7 Days
27% Profits on QQQ May 109 Puts in 7 Days
53% Loss on MSFT May 52 Calls in 2 Days
365% Profits on SIG April 120 Puts in 10 Days
207% Profits on SIG April 120 Puts in 6 Days
70% Profits on GLD April 119 Calls in 1 Day
50% Loss on QQQ Puts in 5 Days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 15 Days
207% Profits on SIG Puts in 6 Days
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$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
There are 5 positions:
Long 6 HL Sept 3.5 Calls
Long 10 XLF June 23 Puts
Long 10 AA June 9 Calls
Long 4 NEM June 34 Calls
Long 4 TGT June 70 Calls
Funds in Use = $ 2430
Week 20 was a minor loss of $102 bringing YTD gains to $4464. We were all over the place with the market having a 200 point range almost every day. This is a dramatically unstable market that is being driven by either oil or the Fed, depending on the day.
We have open positions in HL 9/3.50 calls, XLF 6/23 puts, AA 6/9 calls, NEM 6/34 calls, and TGT 6/70 calls for a funds in use number of $2430. The only comment I can make about our positions is that while I tend to take a macro position on the market, I also look at a lot of stock charts, and I seem to be favoring the long side…It actually was a surprise to me.
The AAII confidence numbers (in the market lab section) are showing that for only the 30th time in 29 years bullish numbers are below 20. Remember that these are weekly numbers so that is really only 30 out of over1500 postings. The number is also 50% below its historical average. The neutral (or “I just don’t know”) number is just below the 50% range and it is 50% above its average.
I’m also hearing a lot of talking heads talking about a “head & shoulders” top here. While it certainly looks like it may be, as I’ve said before, “every market has its own personality,” and the number of FAILED H&S tops that led to new highs over the last 5 or 6 years are numerous.
Somewhat disturbing was an AP poll released this week (not the first one) about the fact that over 2/3s of Americans could not survive a $1,000 “crisis” without a personal loan, credit card advance or taking the money out of a retirement account…and these were from families with household income of $50,000-$100,000. Below $50,000 the number is 75%. Imagine what the savings rate would be with negative interest rates!!
I’m cutting this short tonight since I have to travel to Florida for a family emergency but I will give a midweek update, and with all of the current open positions there will be no new orders given….CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 05/20 | Bought 4 TGT June 70 Calls | 0.91 | 364 | ||
| 05/19 | Bought 4 NEM June 34 Calls | 1.54 | 616 | ||
| 05/19 | Bought 10 AA June 9 Calls | 0.47 | 470 | ||
| 05/19 | Bought 4 NEM May 34 Calls | 0.53 | 212 | 100 Gain | |
| 05/17 | Sold 4 NEM May 33 Calls | 2.35 | 940 | 208 Gain | |
| 05/17 | Sold 2 SIG May 105 Puts 50 % Rule | 0.94 | 188 | 182 Loss | |
| 05/16 | Sold 4 FB May 121 Calls 50 % Rule | 0.58 | 232 | 228 Loss | |
| 05/12 | Bought 10 XLF June 23 Puts | 0.47 | 470 | ||
| 05/11 | Sold 1 SIG May 105 Puts | 3.80 | 380 | 195 Gain | |
| 05/09 | Bought 4 FB May 121 Calls | 1.15 | |||
| 05/04 | Sold 4 NEM 34 May Calls | 0.78 | 312 | 312 Credit | |
| 05/03 | Bought 4 NEM May 33 Calls | 1.83 | 732 | ||
| 05/03 | Bought 6 HL September 3.50 Calls | 0.85 | 510 | ||
| 04/28 | Bought 3 SIG May 105 Puts | 1.85 | 555 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
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Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to buy and they have done well. Now it is your decision whether to take profits in these uncertain times.
Church and Dwight (CHD) made a new all-time high at $ 98.05. We would like to buy again at $ 93, the 50-day m.a, but there is talk of a buyout. Harley Davidson (HOG) was repulsed at its 200 day price moving average around $ 50 and since has retreated below its 50 day m.a. to the 45 level and is in consolidation. The HDGE can be bought at current levels with a stop loss at $ 10.70. The HDGE goes up when the market goes Down. It is a good hedge against long positions.
| Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss
Or sold |
|
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 4.36 | 3.95 | 3.46x |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 19.57 | 19.10 | Buy on a dip |
| SUN | Sunoco | Oil and Gas Refining and marketing | 10 | 0.2 | 2.1B | 33.33 | 29.50 | Short Calls against position |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 9.20 | 7.05 | 8.97X
|
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies | 16 | 1 | 4B | 29.34 | 27.30 | 30x stopped out at 30 |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | Motorcycles and related products | 11 | 1.32 | 8B | 45.56 | 39.84 | Sold at 51.66 on 4/4 |
| CHD | Church & Dwight | Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer | 25 | 3 | 10.6B | 96.55 | 79.80
01/26/16 |
Sold at 94.20 |
| T | AT&T | Communications | 36 | 1.54 | 211.7B | 39.15 | 34.10 | 37.78x |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 55.46 | 30.30
Bought |
Merging with Alaska |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 6.05 | 4.15
Suggested buy Originally bought at $ 2.78 8/24/15 |
4.68x |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 13.88 | 11.86 | 13.80x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 10.98 | Buy on a close above
11.04 |
10.70x |
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
17,500.94 -34.38 -0.20% |
Nasdaq
4769.56 +51.88 |
S&P 500
2052.32 +5.71 +0.28% |
Transportation
7671.89 +164.58 +2.9% |
Russell 2000
1112.28 9.84 +0.89% |
Nasdaq100
4362.90 +36.37 +0.08% |
| Gold (spot)
1252.90 -19.80 -1.6% |
Silver
1653.2 -60.0 -3.5% |
Crude
47.75 +1.54 +3.3% |
Heating Oil
140.31 +6.58 +5.7% |
Unleaded Gas
1.6412 +0.0802 +2.9% |
Natural Gas
2.062 -0.034 -1.62% |
| VIX
15.20 +0.16 +1.1% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 103/100’s +19/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 75/100’s -9/100’s
|
Bonds
164-08 -2-15 2.61%+.08% |
10 Yr. Note
129-224-1-86 1.82%+0.13%
|
Copper
205.55 -1.85 -0.9% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 184.21 +1.66 +-0.9% |
Barron’s* Confidence
65.9 +0.4 |
S&P100
909.15 +1.34 +0.15% |
5 Yr. Note
120-144 -0-27 1.34% +0.16%
|
Dollar
95.27 +0.66 +0.7% |
DJ Utilities
650.08 -15.26 -2.29% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Long Term Average |
Bullish
19.3% -1.1%
38.74% |
Bearish
34.1% +2.8%
30.30% |
Neutral
46.6% -1.7%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +8.94% May 9th
|
M2 Money
Supply +6.66% May 9th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2025 2068
Dow 17,210 17,770
QQQ 103.10 107.90
Transports 7355 7755
NASDAQ 4600 4800
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/
Date Sold |
Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| ZLTQ 200 | 24.52 | 05/16 | 5/17@ 23.68 | ($ 168) | |||
| SCO 20 | 89.28 | 05/13 | |||||
| HL 1000 | 3.95 | 05/03 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| NVAX 500 | 5.38 | 04/18 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 109.88 | 04/12 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| SUN 300 | 29.50 | 02/23 | Sold 3 32.50 Calls | $ 900 credit | |||
| STNG 500 | 6.02 | 02/22 | 5/16 @ 5.76 | ($ 130) | |||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| LVLT 100 | 50.81 | 11/23 | 5/17@ 51.81 | $ 100 | |||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| NBGGY 600 | 1.40 | 02/17 | |||||
| BAC. Wts 5,000 lots | 0.7411 | 12/26 | 5/16 @ 0.17 | ($ 2850) | |||
| BSBR 500
500 |
4.84
3.75 |
12/18
|
5/17 @ 5.09 | $ 670 | |||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| NBGGY 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | 5/16 @ 0.35 | ($ 780) | |||
| NBGGY 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | 5/16 @ 0.35 | ($ 1116) | |||
| TEXQY*
200 |
6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were four closed option positions for a loss of $ 395 and ten closed stock positions
for a loss of $ 4,274 The total for the week was $ 4,669.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits decreased to $12,055.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 16 positions: AA, EYES (2), HL, MOS (2), NBBGY, NVAX, REPR, SAN, SCO (2), SUN, TEXQY, TWTR and short 3 SUN Calls.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000, using a total of $59,443
for the 15 open long stock positions plus a credit of $900 for the SUN written Calls which reduces the requirement to $ 58,543. The Open Option Position requires $4,860. This increases the margin requirement to $ 63,403 leaving $ 36,597 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
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Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| TGT June 70 8 lots |
Calls 0.91 |
05/20/16 | |||
| NEM June 34 8 lots |
Calls 1.54 |
05/19/16 | |||
| AA June 9 20 lots |
Calls 0.47 |
05/19/19 | |||
| XLF June 23
20 lots |
Puts
0.47 |
05/12/16 | |||
| FB May 121
8 lots |
Calls
1.15 |
05/09/16 | 0.58 50% Rule |
05/16/2016 | ($ 556) |
| NEM May 33
8 lots SHORT |
Calls
0.78 |
05/19/16 | 0.52 | 05/04/2016 | $ 200 |
| HL Sept 3.50
12 lots |
Calls
0.85 |
05/03/16 | |||
| NEM May 33
8 lots |
Calls
1.83 |
05/03/16 | 2.35 | 05/17/2016 | $ 416 |
| SIG May 105
5 lots |
Puts
1.85 |
04/28/16 | 0.94 50% Rule |
05/17/2016 | ($ 455 ) |
| SUN June 32.50
3 lots written |
Calls
|
3.00 | 02/23/2016 | $ 900 credit
Covered write |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Baozun BZUN (0.19) KLX KLXI (0.47) ReneSola SOL (-0.3 vs -18)
05:30 hrs Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives Beijing City Lecture on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Official Monetary and Financial Institution Forum. 09:45 hrs Markit Manufacturing PMI ( 51.1 vs 50.8 ) 18:30 hrs Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook. America’s Car-Mart CRMT (0.58 vs 0.81) ComScore SCOR (0.26 vs 0.54) Nordson NDSN (0.92 vs 0.80) Tarena International TEDU ( -0.03 vs -0.03) Zhaopin ZPIN (0.19 vs 0.18)
|
| TUESDAY | Bank of Montreal BMO (1.75 vs 1.71) Best Buy BBY ( 0.35 vs 0.37 )
Bio Blast Pharma ORPN ( -0.29 -0.23 ) DSW DSW ( 0.46 vs 0.53 ) Kirklands KIRK ( 0.09 vs 0.16 ) Toll Brothers TOL ( 0.46 vs 0.37 ) 10:00 hrs New Home Sales for April; (521K vs 511K) Aegean Marine Petrol ANW ( 0.25 vs 0.25) Computer Sciences CSC (0.68 vs 1.26) Dycom DY (0.74 vs 0.58) Hewlett Packard Enterprise HPE (0.41) Intuit INTU (3.21 vs 2.85) Itron ITRI (0.34 vs 0.20) Nimble Storage NMBL ( -0.26 vs -0.10) Violin Memory VMEM (-0.17 vs -0.22) |
| WEDNESDAY | Autohome ATHM (0.26 vs 0.28) Eaton Vance EV (0.48 vs 0.58) EVINE Live EVLV (-0.06 vs -0.04) Express EXPR (0.27 vs 0.22) Foresight Energy FELP (-0.13 vs 0.33) Graham GHM (0.11 vs 0.53) Navios Maritime NM (-0.40 vs -0.29) Royal Bank of Canada RY (1.64 vs 1.61) Thermon Group THR ( 0.19 vs 0.28) Tiffany & Co TIF (0.68 vs 0.81) Valeant Pharma ( 1.38 vs 2.36) 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 05/121 11:40 hrs Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on the relationship between the energy sector and monetary policy before the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference. 13;00 hrs Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Houston Partnership Thought Leader Series. AMERCO UHAL ( 3.14 vs 2.43) Apigee APIC ( -0.27 vs -0.41) Bristow Group BRS (0.56 vs 0.91) China Distance Education DL (0.08) Copart CPRT (0.54 vs 0.44) Costco COST ( 1.23 vs 1.17) CSRA CSRA (0.49) Ctrip CTRP ( -0.06 vs 0.04) Exa EXA ( -0.08 vs -0.10) Guess? GES ( -0.18 vs 0.04) Hatteras Financial HTS ( 0.44 vs 0.56) HEICO HEI ( 0.56 vs 0.49)HP HPQ ( 0.38 vs 0.87 ) Infoblox BLOX ( 0.05 vs 0.12) Lions Gate Entertainment LGF ( 0.06 vs 0.39 ) Modine Manufacturing MOD ( 0.32 vs 0.12) NetApp NTAP ( 0.58 vs 0.65) PVH PVH ( 1.43 vs 1.50) SpartanNash SPTN ( 0.50 vs 0.44) Tilly’s TLYS ( -0.07 vs 0.05) Williams-Sonoma WSM ( 0.50 vs 0.48)
|
| THURSDAY | Abercrombie & Fitch ANF ( -0.51 vs -0.53) American Superconductor AMSC ( -0.68 vs -0.69) Burlington Stores BURL ( 0.48 vs 0.41) Chico’s FAS CHS ( 0.31 vs 0.28) CIBC CM ( 2.31) Dollar General DG (0.95 vs 0.84) Patterson Companies PDCO ( 0.75 vs 0.68) RBC Bearings ROLL( 0.84 vs 0.73) Sanderson Farms SAFM ( 1.52 vs 3.13) Seadrill Ltd SDRL(0.39 vs 0.86) Sears Holdings SHLD ( -3.20 vs -2.00) Signet Jewelers SIG (1.94 vs 1.62) SouFun Holdings SFUN ( -0.12 vs 0.02) Stantec STN ( 0.48 vs 0.40) Tech Data TECD ( 0.94 vs 0.80) Tidewater TDW ( -0.54 vs 0.50)
05:15 hrs Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives Singapore City Lecture on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Official Monetary and Financial Institution Forum, in Singapore 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 05/21 ( 275K vs 278K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 05/07 ( NA vs 2152K ) 08:30 hrs Durable Orders Apr (0.6% vs 0.8%) 10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Apr (0.6% vs 1.4%) 12:15 hrs Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell speaks on “Recent Economic Developments, the Productive Potential of the Economy, and Monetary Policy” before the Peterson Institute. 21Vianet VNET ( -0.02 vs 0.02) Caleres CAL (0.44) GameStop GME( 0.61 vs 0.68) Ixys IXYS (0.16 vs 0.24) vTv Therapeutics VTVT (-0.44) |
| FRIDAY | Big Lots BIG (0.70 vs 0.60) JA Solar JASO ( 0.31 vs 0.13 )
JinkoSolar Holding JKS (1.07 vs 0.88 ) Tsakos Energy (0.27 vs 0.42)
08:30 hrs GDP – Second Estimate Q1 (0.9% vs 0.5%) 08:30 hrs GDP Deflator – Second Estimate Q1 (0.7% vs 0.7%)
|
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
The stock market ended the week on a higher note as the S&P 500 broke a three-week losing streak.
Heavyweight technology (+1.1%), health care (+0.8%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) sectors outperformed the general market. The Nasdaq Composite ended the week ahead of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
In the technology space the high-beta chipmakers ended the week on a strong note as the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 3.2%. In the sub-group, Applied Materials (AMAT 22.66, +2.75) spiked 13.8% after beating estimates for the quarter and issuing above-consensus guidance. Elsewhere, Yahoo! (YHOO 36.50, -0.52) displayed weakness after headlines speculated that bids for the web portal would register between $2 billion and $3 billion.
Biotechnology was firm as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.18, +5.28) gained 2.0%. Elsewhere, Pfizer (PFE 33.74, +0.36) led the drug manufacturer sub-group while Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 112.64, +0.59) underperformed the broader market.
Retail names ended their week mixed as disappointing guidance from Ross Stores (ROST 52.49, -3.03) and Foot Locker (FL 54.77, -3.78) weighed on the names. Gap (GPS 18.01, +0.73) gained 4.2% after announcing that it would close 75 stores worldwide. Nordstrom (JWN 38.12, +1.01) and L Brands (LB 63.54, +2.92) rebounded 2.7% and 4.8%, respectively.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average was led by courier and logistics names. In the broader industrial sector, Deere (DE 77.74, -4.51) underperformed after lowering its year-over-year cash flow guidance. However, the company did beat analysts’ estimates for the quarter. Campbell Soup (CPB 59.90, -4.08) underperformed in the consumer staples space after a sales metric missed its mark.
While the markets are in the doldrums there are seven stocks that are forward looking and have upside to buy only when the overall market displays expected weakness:
Scotts Miracle Grow (SMG: $ 66.94) has declined from a recent high of $ 75.13 reached March 30th and is just above its 200 day moving average.
Sunoco is a buy on dips to the $ 30 level, but must close above its 200 day M.A. at about $ 34.50 to confirm.
Alcoa (AA: $ 9.20) has declined to its 200 day m.a. and should be bought. Aluminum technology continues to be developed. We would place a stop loss on any two closes below $ 9.
Hecla Mining (HL: $ 4.36) has been on a tear having climbed from a low of $ 1.45 on January 19th to present levels. The 50 day m.a. is at $ 3.54 where we would like to consider being long.
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc (ULTA: $ 205.20) Specialty retailer providing cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare bath and body products and saloon styling tools. Buy at the 200 day m.a. at $ 175 when the market sells off.
WebMD Health (WBMD: $ 63.16) has posted 33% or higher quarterly earnings for the past three years. The pace is expected to slow to about 25%. We would consider buying on a pullback to below the 50 day m.a. at about $ 58. Stop loss at $ 52.
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc * AHS $ (37.41) Offers temporary and permanent staffing of physicians and nurses to health care facilities in the U.S. Buy toward the 50 day m.a. at $ 34: Stop loss at $ 28.
Pessimism persists in the markets despite Retail Sales Growth and a stronger Michigan Sentiment Index. Retail Sales grew 1.3% in April from March beating most expectations. The Michigan Sentiment index jumped to 95.8 in May from 89.7 in April. Expectations jumped by 9.9 points to 87.5 while Current Conditions edged up by6 1.9 points to 108.6. Treasuries closed at a new high for the week using the TLT, the 20 year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT: $ 132.28) up $ 1.83 or + 1.4% and very close to the all-time highs. Major support exists at the 130 level where Stops should be placed If reached.
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Market Strategies Economic Data
Total receipts in April were $438 billion while total outlays were $332 billion. Bolstered by individual tax receipts, the Treasury Budget for April showed a surplus of $106.5 billion; however, that was much less than the surplus of $156.7 billion seen in the same period a year ago. The economy was slower and asset profits, including stock market gains, no comparison to year earlier profits.
Receipts were $33 billion less than receipts in April 2015. A large portion of that difference can be attributed to a lower level of individual tax receipts this year ($266 billion) versus last year ($288 billion). Total outlays, meanwhile, were $17 billion more than last year. The 12-month deficit is $510.9 billion versus $460.6 billion in March.
Retail Sales surprised, increasing 1.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%) in April after an unrevised 0.3% decline in March. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.8% on top of an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from +0.2%) in March.
The retail sales gain was fueled by a 3.2% increase in auto sales, a 2.2% jump in gasoline station sales, and a 2.1% uptick in sales at non-store retailers.
The retail sales gains in April were fairly broad-based. The only decline seen was in building materials, garden equipment, and General Merchandise dealers (-1.0%), which might have been impacted from the unseasonably cool spring temperatures.
General merchandise store sales were flat, yet department store sales were reportedly up 0.3%.
| Category | APR | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC |
| Retail Sales | 1.3% | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.3% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.4% |
| Durable goods | |||||
| Building Materials | -1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 4.9% |
| Autos/parts | 3.2% | -3.2% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| Furniture | 0.7% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Nondurable goods | |||||
| General Merchandise | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.7% | 0.1% |
| Food | 0.9% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
| Gasoline stations | 2.2% | 3.1% | -5.4% | -3.0% | -1.2% |
| Clothing | 1.0% | -0.8% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| e*retailing/non-store | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
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Market Strategies Cycles
Both Gold and Silver have a strong tendency to peak in May, bottoming in mid to late June. Traders can look to sell both silver and gold on or about May 13 and maintain a short position until on or about June 24. In the past 43 years the Stock Trader’s Almanac has recommended these trades which have seen declines 29 times for a success rate of 67.4%. Prior to 2014, this concept had been successful for eight years in a row. Last year, this trade did get back on track and is now been successful in 9 of the last 10 years. In the second chart below, the 43-year historic average seasonal price tendency of silver as well as the decline typically seen from mid-May until the low is posted in late June into early July is shown. This May silver short trade captures the tail end of silver’s weak seasonal period (shaded yellow). A weakening U.S. dollar caused silver to spike in April, but the dollar has firmed and the spike appears to have run its course.
Gold has a seasonal tendency to peak in late January after the holiday season, as jewelry demand starts to decline. Price increases can last into the first part of February, as inventories are being replenished by dealers preparing for retail sales for Valentine’s Day gifts.
Gold tends to post seasonal bottoms in late June or early July, as demand increases when jewelers again stock up ahead of a the seasonal wedding event in India and also, when investors return from summer vacations. Gold prices are also subject to spikes in demand from the investment community, as a hedge or protection from concerns over inflation or times of economic instability or uncertainties. It is valued in terms of the U.S. dollar, so periods of dollar weakness helps support gold’s value.
The GLD (GLD: $ 121.21) has what the infamous Richard Donchian labeled as a “broken kite” pattern. The six trading days from Wednesday April 27th to May 6th and then the gap down Monday the 9th of May constitutes the “broken kite” pattern. To negate this pattern, a consolidation or close above the highs is needed.
. If ZSL then rises and closes above $40.95 switch to a 5% trailing stop loss. update its stop loss.
ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) generally corresponds to two times the inverse of the daily performance of silver. However, ZSL is not tracking spot silver price, rather it is tracking the U.S. dollar price for delivery in London. Nonetheless, ZSL has a solid history of rising when silver price declines. ZSL could be bought on dips below $39.00. If purchased, an initial stop loss of $35.50 is suggested
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Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.35 )*
Fourth quarter preliminary net revenues will exceed $3.2 million, representing a slight increase over the $3.1 million of the previous quarter. Sales are led by the Company’s proprietary infusion products. The Company’s fiscal year ended February 29, 2016.
This month the Company participated in the 25th Annual National Home Infusion Association (NHIA) Conference and Expo in New Orleans, LA and used the occasion to introduce its new “On-Line Calculator”, a tool to help determine which of the Company’s Precision Flow Rate Tubing™ and RMS HIgH-Flo Subcutaneous Needle Sets™ to use based on the medication being administered and desired time of infusion.
RMS Medical Products was one of 110 exhibitors in attendance at NHIA. Customers responded well to the new calculator and expressed that the new format of the “On-Line Calculator”, which can be used on any computer, tablet, or mobile device, was easy to use and very helpful. The marketing and sales teams continue to build new relationships and expand the Company’s customer base as evidenced by continued strong sales.
Andy Sealfon, Company President and CEO commented, “The military has expressed interest in our products for utilization in emergency applications as well as use in VA hospitals. We believe that because of our performance standards and the reliability of our products, we will provide them with great value and benefits.”
The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and the newer FreedomEdge™ Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
NHIA is a trade association representing the interests of entities providing infusion and specialty pharmacy products and services to home-based infusion patients.
The Company’s website is rmsmedicalproducts.com.
Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of 29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.
Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OTCQB:OGES 0.58) *
Oakridge global energy is a developer, designer and manufacturer of proprietary energy storage solutions. The Company is based out of Florida’s “space coast” near Kennedy Space Center. They make premium quality, proprietary batteries, battery systems and lithium ion cells that are built for maximum performance over the traditional lead/acid batteries. OGES, proudly manufacturing in America since 1986, produces batteries for military, consumer, government, and industrial applications. Target market priorities include golf cars and other recreational vehicles, electronics, and devices requiring rechargeable batteries.
Oakridge Energy produces highly reliable, sustainable and dependable batteries for mobile power sources. Based on size and weight, OGES products deliver a higher capacity than comparable competitor batteries. OGES batteries are higher in quality, longer lasting and safer to use. These batteries have undergone and passed rigorous military testing in underwater and aerial vehicles proving to be high/low pressure tolerant. Most significant, OGES batteries are superior performing yet competitive in the market.
Martac Maritime Tactical Systems, Inc., MARTAC recently conducted very successful field trials on the Inter-coastal waterway in Palm Bay, Florida. MARTAC is a Melbourne, Florida based company that designs and produces the Man-Portable Tactical Autonomous Systems (MANTAS) that can reach extreme high speeds and operate anywhere in the world. These vehicles are designed to be used in numerous applications including naval fleet protection, mine warfare, port and harbor security patrol, antipiracy, search and rescue, and many others. shows our high quality and high performance gets us into the military space at a time when made in USA is of critical strategic importance.
Freedom Trucks shows that Oakridge can outperform Tesla and the “Tesla of trucks” – trucks are much more difficult and laborious to power than cars – because of the Oakridge high power high energy
dense batteries, we need only 180 OGES batteries to power the interstate truck that pulls an
80,000 lb trailer, whereas it would take 208,000 Tesla/Panasonic batteries, which is simply not feasible.
Lithium ion batteries, deliver twice the energy of nickel cadmium batteries and are the fastest growing battery segment. Their growth and demand dynamically forward trending. They are lightweight and easy to maintain. They deliver superior electro-chemical output and provide highest energy density for weight, non-metallic and are rechargeable. In 2015, the OGES ProSeries golf car was launched at the annual PGA show, the largest golf show in the world. OGES plans to have a new factory producing its patented thin film solid state lithium ion batteries by 2017. OGES is commencing delivery of small format prismatics to help several smart card customers reach the next generation. Their growth will be serviced by the new factory. These batteries are also in a rapidly growing demand for a variety of applications.
Oakridge has recently continued expansion of its ISO certified manufacturing facility and warehouse in Palm Bay, with the support of Florida Governor Rick Scott. The new facility represents a $270 million investment, increasing the size of the manufacturing plant to 70,000 sq-ft to accommodate the growing demand for OGES batteries. Production is expected to increase from 250,000 to 25 million cells per year by 2018. The company’s growth will provide 1000 Americans with new jobs; this is part of the company’s commitment to support domestic employment. Overseas, Oakridge Global Energy Solutions Limited (Hong Kong) is a subsidiary company that operates for sales and service in Asia.
Pluristem Therapeutics (Nasdaq : PSTI: $ 1.58)
is a leading developer of patented placenta-based cell therapy products through its ( Placental expanded ) platform. In 2016 PLX cells will enter pivotal trials aimed at marketing approval in two indications serving multi-billion dollar markets. Positive clinical trial data for the cells have been reported in multiple indications. PLC cells release a cocktail of therapeutic proteins in response to inflammation, ischemia, hematological disorders and radiation damage. The Company’s proprietary, three – dimensional expansion technology is used to grow the cells in mass quantities with batch-to-batch consistency at Pluristem’s FDA and EMA approved state-of-the-art manufacturing facility. The cells do not require tissue matching prior to administration, making the treatment cost effective and readily available in virtually any medical setting. Pluristem has a strong intellectual property position, GMP-certified manufacturing facilities, strong balance sheet and strategic relationships with major research institutions.
Japan’s Patent Office just granted Pluristem two key patents, which cover: 1) Pluristem’s core technology of three-dimensional expansion methods for producing therapeutic cell products derived from placental or fat cells; 2) the use of placenta-derived cell products grown with this 3D technology to treat disorders of the hematopoietic system* (see below for a bit of detail), such as disorders caused by exposure to radiation or chemotherapy, and failed engraftment of hematopoietic stem cell transplants. Pluristem continues to strengthen its IP position in order to support the current negotiations with pharmaceutical companies in Japan regarding potential partnerships for the development and commercialization of its Placental expanded (PLX) cells.
Key to their activities in Japan, and as is descried on the fact sheet, is that Pluristem received clearance for the protocol for a Phase 2 trial in critical limb ischemia targeting marketing approval in Japan, via Japan’s accelerated regulatory pathway for regenerative medicines. Having been accepted into that pathway, Pluristem is able to apply for conditional marketing approval after a single successful phase 2 study. If the Phase 2 results are positive and PLX-R18 gets approved on the basis of those data, they will not need to spend the years and millions of dollars on Phase 3 trials, but will have to collect “real world” data on patients who have been prescribed the drug to treat critical limb ischemia, once it hits the market. In any case, acquiring IP for all placenta-derived cell therapies is crucial to activities there, as is protection of Pluristem’s 3D manufacturing methods.
Gold Mining USA OTC: GMUI (0.03)
Has both mining activities in Australia and the U.S. Gold Mining USA Inc is an emerging natural resources company focused on developing metallurgical and mining projects. The Company’s business model is to acquire projects with the potential to provide significant resources through exploratory drilling and generate value through their development, joint venture or divestment. GMUI has a team of experts who will manage all mining operations available on their website. In addition GMUI has an Offtake Agreement with a prestigious Swiss-based Gold buyer and Refiner to purchase its gold production at the spot price at the London Bullion Market (LBMA) on the day gold is collected.
GMUI Strategy: The company uses strict investment criteria for project acquisitions and focuses on available tenements in proximity to operating mines, or in areas with proven or potential in-ground resources in regions suitable for short-term development. Projects are selected based upon historical drilling or sampling results combined with robust geological mining concepts and financial models. The projects are explored, analyzed and where required, brought into compliance to JORC/NI 43-101.
Australia and Nevada provide the opportunities to exploit smaller, undeveloped or previously mined gold resources that are of no interest to the large mining companies. In addition, there are numerous small hard rock and alluvial gold mines which have viable gold resources but are unable to raise the funds to start up or continue operations.
An initial target acquisition, Mt Tymn, provides an opportunity to enter the gold mining arena in Australia on a small scale with the confidence of total outlay recovery and good profits, sufficient to expand operations by acquisition of similar nearby deposits to continue positive cash flow mining and commence an exploration program capable of even greater rewards.
Mt Tymn is located approximately 125kms southwest of Darwin, 1km east of the Stuart Highway and 18kms south of the Adelaide River. As part of this acquisition, GMUI will also own the MLs relating to Ringwood which is situated approximately 120 kms southeast of Darwin, in the Pine Creek area. The minimum gold resource at Mt Tymn is conservatively estimated at 227,000 ounces with large potential for further drilling and assessment. Gross revenue is estimated to be in excess of $ 300 million with a gross profit expected to exceed 45%.
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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