December 5, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Where To Invest Now For High Returns
Read the December 5, 2016 — Where To Invest in December 2016 Newsletter in .pdf format – Here
Where To Invest Balanced Investing Strategies
To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest Now For High Returns Newsletter Covering:
Where To Invest December 2016
Investing Trade Alerts
Text Message Investing Alerts
Options Trading Service
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Stocks To Buy With Stops December 2016
Proven Trading Profits
Results From Recent Text Message Investing Trade Alerts:
340% Profits on SIG Calls in 10 Days
93% Profits SPY in 3 Days
100% Loss on SPY Puts in 2 Days
58% Profits on SPY Puts in 9 Days
109% Profits on SPY Puts in 8 Days
58% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
55% Loss on SPY Puts in 5 Days
123% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
300% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
15% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
50% Loss on LMT Calls in 1 Day
45% Profits on SFM Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on LULU Calls in 8 Days
50% Profits on TBT Calls in 8 Days
86% Profits on AA Calls in 6 Days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 5 Days
66% Profits on SPY Puts in 2 Days
47% Profits on SLV Calls in 3 Days
58% Profits on SUN Calls in 3 Days
85% Profits on SPY Puts in 3 Days
82% Profits on SLV Calls in 2 Days
51% Profits on AA Calls in 7 Days
157% Profits on NEM Calls in 4 Days
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Options Trading Service
Investing Trade Alerts
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Positions
Long 5 SJM December 130 Calls
Long 10 SPY Dec 9th 218.50 Puts
Funds in Use $ 1,045
Week 48 was a loss of $436 bringing YTD back down to $9,000. We only have 2 open positions using $1,045. I really thought that the FB position was going to be an intermediate and longer term winner, but the rush to raise money from the big-cap tech stocks was just too much of an influence and both FB trades were taken out on the 50% Down rule.
The other big tech stocks did no better with GOOG, which started the week up a bit closing $30 off its high of the week and $65 lower than last month’s high. AMZN -$40 for the week and $100 off last month’s high. Most people think about this time of the year as tax-loss selling, but with the runs that some of these stocks have had, they also want to nail down profits if they think that these gains are at risk.
The metals look to be very close to longer term support and I think that the GDX is a buy right here with a stop below the lows of the last couple of weeks. A close under $20 would make me nervous, but I think that for anyone who can stand the risk, the support around $19-19.25 would be a great spot to take some January $21 calls.
The oil is a different story. I think the play here is to be short anywhere north of here and I’ve already started to buy the SCO (leveraged inverse ETF). If it goes a little lower, and I can’t really give you a spot on it, but I would key off $52-52.50 oil, I would take a small position in the SCO 1/65 calls around $5-5.50. This is a difficult trade on the options side because there is little liquidity. We are almost at the 200 week MA and a bounce from here in SCO doesn’t run into resistance until $80 or so.
The President-elect is making some very interesting choices from the business community. I find it encouraging that he is surrounding himself with some real pros. Clearly he has still got some very important positions to fill, but the sentiment has been positive. Consumer confidence “seems” to be building and although we have a very long way to go, I find it interesting that most politicians move “to the middle” to get elected and Trump didn’t do that at all, but instead has moved toward that spot to govern. Maybe he’s not the loudmouth blowhard that a lot of his detractors labeled him so early on…..CAM
Where To Invest In December 2016
Options Trading Service
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 11/30 | Bought 10 SPY December 9th 218.50 Puts | 0.77 | 770 | ||
| 11/30 | Sold 4 FB December 124 Calls
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
0.57 | 228 | 232 Loss | |
| 11/30 | Sold 4 FB December 9th 122 Calls
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
0.52 | 208 | 204 Loss | |
| 11/29 | Bought 4 FB December 124 Calls | 1.15 | 460 | ||
| 11/28 | Bought 4 FB December 9th 122 Calls | 1.03 | 412 | ||
| 11/22 | Sold 5 SJM December 130 Calls | 1.10 | 550 | 275 Gain | |
| 11/21 | Bought 5 SJM December 130 Calls | 0.55 | 275 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
New Trades Will Be TEXTED To MEMBERS
Where To Invest In December 2016
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
The Boeing closed over the 50-day M.A. at $ 132 in early October and we have been long. Also Defense spending has continued decent. Hold with a suitable stop loss.
We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 with a stop loss at 47.42.
We sold the Amazon short at $828 and covered on the opening November 8th.
We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in the Flushing Financial.
You should buy the HDGE since it closed above the 13 DMA.
We are looking to buy the GSCI symbol GSG, a commodity indexed fund managed by Goldman.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| GSG | GSCI | Commodity Indexed Fund | 15.37 | 15.00 | 14.50x | |||
| TPC | Tutor Perini | Construction | 12 | 0.25 | 1.3B | 25.85 | 19.40
10/31/16 |
24.90x |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 13 | 1.6 | 3.6B | 56.25 | 46.15 | 51.75sco |
| BMY | Bristol Myers | Biopharmaceutical Products | 28 | 5.1 | 94.9B | 55.96 | 49.20
10/17/16 |
55.45sco |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalogue and Mail Order | 200 | 3.18 | 388B | 740.34 | 828 Sold Short
10/24 16 |
771.57 covered short 11/7 on opening |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 152.25 | Long at
132 |
Stop at 147.21 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 6.36 | 6.21 | Try to get Long |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 26.34 | 19.10
06/27 |
24.65x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 29.04 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 29.20
Equivalent Look to get long |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 56.55 | 30.30
Bought 02/10/16 |
Sell to take profits |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 6.67 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 21.23
|
Bought at 15.42
9/30/16 |
17.60x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 9.48
|
No Position currently | Buy at 9.56sco |
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.43 )*
My recent visited Medica in Dusseldorf and was warmly received by our RMS Medical Products, reports Andy Sealfon, CEO of REPR. European distributors greeted me with bear hugs, grins, and many personal thanks for making this trip immediately after my travels to Barcelona for ESID. We had enthusiastic discussions as to the impressive growth potential for the UK and Scandinavian regions, and for expansion into Germany. We are working on the formation of a Clinical Advisory Panel for Europe, and our UK distributor has begun conversations with one of the lead nurses in the largest UK hospital.
There is a new application for our High Flo Subcutaneous needle sets for treatment of Parkinson’s disease, which is an entirely new market for us. We have new trials going on all over Europe, and the possibility of one in Russia, in partnership with several pharmaceutical companies. We’ll soon have trials in Germany, Sweden, and probably Italy. We are preparing a new market launch of an addition to our system designed for Facilitated Subcutaneous Immune Globulin (FSCIg) which was subject of a Swedish trial, and was such a hit (human factors study showed 95% out of 100 satisfaction), that patients are lining up and building pressure for us to begin delivery which we are working hard to accomplish. This new system is also under trial in Germany. For the first time patients are able to perform the delivery at home without nursing support. We are working with large Pharma companies to deliver their new drugs to our markets widening the market for our High Flo 24 gauge needles.
We are excited about the individuals that comprise our Europe team. As individuals, they each bring unique talents and collectively I believe they are unstoppable. Chatarina S., Global VP of Marketing located in Sweden, will assist the sales team for the Scandinavian region while still performing marketing and clinical support. Markus D. our super salesperson in Germany is working hard to get our new distributor there up and running. Manal H., based in the USA, is the glue that binds this team together. She is always in the lead initiating new dynamics for the team and the Company. Dr. Sabino Loiodice, who is our new Director of European Sales and Marketing, has great experience along with the ideal European charm, maturity, and a very modern approach to management which embraces coaching, mentoring, and preempting obstacles. I expect great things from this super team!
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 6.67 )*
The activity in Enzo Biochem has shown it to be a rock star in the Biotech arena. Prior to the election the Biotech index was trading in Bear Market territory with many stocks having given up 50% or more from their 12 month highs. Enzo is up 47.56% for the year and up 56.6% for 12 months. The Relative strength index is close to 70 which is getting into overbought territory.
A small pullback would not be a bad thing to move stock from weak to strong hands. Why this may not happen: Announcements of new product approvals from the New York regulatory agency for new Ampiprobe products filling in the pipeline for Women’s Health Care Products. A Scientific Paper on Enzo’s new line of products to allow for a more precise interpretation of tumor biopsies.
NIH announcement of results on their multi year trial using Enzo’s Optiquel for the treatment of Uveitis and Macular Degeneration.
Updates on the Litigations in Delaware.
The last earnings report showed a cash position in excess of $65 million with no debt to speak of and a positive cash flow from their operating divisions. The only cash burn is coming from Litigation expenses and a bit from Research and Development. Litigation in Delaware is on a contingency basis as such Enzo is not on the hook for billable hours. To my knowledge there are 6 suits left after 6 have settled.
When the company gets a 500 million dollar market cap ($10.63) they will qualify for those Institutions that can’t buy microcap stocks. A significant number of Institutions will look to be buyers and with only 47 million shares issued and Institutions already owning 50% and insiders owning 15% that leaves less than 17 million shares in the float.
Pressure BioSciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.30 )*
PBIO has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market.
PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules.
Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction,
homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure BioSciences Inc is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. ( NGTF 0.44 )*
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed.
Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested.
Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods. There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals.
Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week. More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
Leo Motors ( LEOM: $ 0.10 )*
has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN ( Controller Area Network ) based, which enables mobile diagnosing between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
Galaxy Gaming ( GLXZ: $ 0.62 ) engages in the design, development and manufacturing of table games and related products for the casino industry worldwide. Located in over 500 casinos around the globe, the Company offers a large portfolio of the world’s most popular side bets and proprietary table games. Additionally, the Company has a line of systems and associated equipment which provide casino operators with enhanced profitability, automation and security of table game operations.
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| SCO 20 | 69.05 | 12/01 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 74.41 | 11/30 | |||||
| RWM 100 | 50.60 | 11/21 | |||||
| ANW 500 | 10 | 11/17 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 22.88 | 11/14 | |||||
| UCO 500 | 8.91 | 11/07 | 9.95 11/07 | 520 | |||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| AA 500 | 10.43 | 07/25 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were two sold options positions, both FB losing $ 408 and $ 464 bought on November 28th and 29th and losing $ 872, both sold on the 50% Loss Rule on November 30th.
The 20 lot SPY Put position was bought on Nov 30th and is open.
There was one closed stock position, the UCO was sold on Nov 30th for a profit of $ 520
The net for the week was a loss of $352.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits were reduced by $ 352 to $26,646.
Open trade losses increased to $14,770.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 17 positions:
AA ( 2 ), AMBA, ANW, CTL, EYES ( 2 ), MOS ( 2 ),REPR, RWM, SAN, SCO ( 2 ), SPXU, TEXQY, TWTR
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
The options position requires $ 550. We are using a total of $71,719 plus $ 2,090 for the options which totals $ 73,809 for the 17 open long stock positions, leaving $ 26,191 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others. The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| SPY Dec 9th 218.50
20 lots |
Puts
0.77 |
11/30/16 | |||
| FB Dec 124
8 lots |
Calls
1.15 |
11/29/16 | 0.57
( Sold 50% Loss Rule ) |
11/30/2016 | ( $ 464 ) |
| FB Dec 9th 122
8 lots |
Calls
1.03 |
11/28/16 | 0.52
( Sold 50% Loss Rule ) |
11/30/2016 | ( $ 408 ) |
| SJM Dec 130
10 lots |
Calls
0.55 |
11/21/16 | 1.10
( Sold Half 100% profit rule ) |
11/22/2016 | $ 550 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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Where To Invest In December 2016
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
19,170.42 +18.28 +0.10% |
Nasdaq
5255.65 -143.27 |
S&P 500
2191.95 -21.40 -0.97% |
Transportation
9048.96 +4.75 +0.05% |
Russell 2000
1314.25 -32.95 -2.45% |
Nasdaq100
4739.37 -130.64 -2.68% |
| Gold (spot)
1175.10 -3.10 -0.3% |
Silver
1683.2 +27.8 +1.7% |
Crude
51.68 +5.62 +12.2% |
Heating Oil
165.81 +17.9 +12.0% |
Unleaded Gas
1.5591 +0.1830 +13.3% |
Natural Gas
3.436 +0.234 +7.3% |
| VIX
14.12 +1.78 +14.4% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 137/100’s -21/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 61/100’s +1/100’s
|
Bonds
150-16 -0.30 3.06% +0.05% |
10 Yr. Note
124-15 -034 2.39%+0.03%
|
Copper
262.50 -5.65 -2.1% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 191.69. +5.96 +3.2% |
Barron’s* Confidence
73.9 +0.9 |
S&P100
966.28 -8.97 -0.92% |
5 Yr. Note
117-292 +035 1.83% -0.01%
|
Dollar
100.66 -0.84 -0.8% |
DJ Utilities
632.22 -7.73 -1.21% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
43.8% -6.1%
38.4% |
Bearish
25.1% +3.0%
30.30% |
Neutral
31.1% +3.1%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +9.28% Nov 21st
|
M2 Money
Supply +7.73% Nov 21st
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2177 2239
Dow 18,648 19,390
QQQ 114.12 118.20
Transports 8820 9195
NASDAQ 5077 5345
Where To Invest In December 2016
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | GW Pharma GWPH ( -0.09 vs -0.05 )
Italian Constitutional Referendum failed: Renzi to resign throwing the Euro into more turmoil 10:00 hrs ISM Services November ( 55.6 vs 54.8 ) St Louis Fed President James Bullard gives a presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
Coupa Software COUP ) -0.47 ) |
| TUESDAY | AutoZone AZO ( 9.32 vs 8.29 ) Bank of Montreal BMO ( 1.85 vs 1.90 ) Barnes and Noble Education BNED ( 0.78 vs 0.69 ) Bob Evans BOBE ( 0.45 vs 0.41 ) Conn’s CONN ( -0.19 vs 0.02 ) Francesca’s FRAN ( 0.18 vs 0.16 ) HD Supply Holdings HDS ( 0.82 vs 0.66 ) Michael’s Stores MIK ( 0.43 vs 0.37 ) Toll Brothers TOL ( 0.99 vs 0.80 )
08:30 hrs Productivity-Revised 3rd Qtr ( 3.3% vs 3.1% ) 08:30 hrs Unit Labor Costs – Revised 3rd Qtr ( +0.2% vs +0.3% ) 08:30 hrs Trade Balance October ( -$41.8Bln vs -$36.4Bln ) 10:00 hrs Factory Orders October ( + 2.5% vs + 0.3% ) The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing to examine the Iranian threat network. AeroVironment AVAV ( -0.08 vs 0.19 ) Analogic ALOG ( 0.80 vs -0.55 ) Dave and Busters PLAY ( 0.13 vs 0.12 ) Oxford Industries OXM ( -0.09 vs -0.08 ) Powell Industries POWL ( 0.07 vs 0.45 ) SeaChange SEAC ( -0.18 vs 0.01 ) Sigma Designs SIGM ( 0.07 vs 0.13 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Brown-Forman BF.B ( 0.50 vs 0.97 ) Hain Celestial HAIN ( 0.56 vs 0.55 ) Hooker Furniture HOFT ( 0.46 vs 0.43 ) John Wiley JW.A ( 0.66 vs 0.78 ) Korn/Ferry KFY ( 0.58 vs 0.51 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 12/03 ( NA vs -9.4% ) 10:00 hrs Jolts – Job Openings October ( NA vs +5.486Mln ) CORE PCE Price Index ( NA vs +0.1% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 12/03( NA vs -0.884 Mln Bbls ) 15:00 hrs Consumer Credit October ( $18.7Bln vs $19.3Bln ) Casey’s General CASY ( 1.59 vs 2.00 ) Costco COST ( 1.19 vs 1.09 ) Greif GEF ( 0.68 vs 0.76 ) lululemon athletica LULU ( 0.43 vs 0.38 ) United Natural Foods UNFI ( 0.62 vs 0.63 ) |
| THURSDAY | Acushnet GOLF 60.47 Cantel Medical CMN ( 0.48 vs 0.41 Hovnanian HOV ( 0.14 vs 0.16 )
Sears Holdings SHLD ( -4.06 vs -2.86 ) Ciena CIEN 0.46 vs 0.42 Toro TTC ( 0.21 vs 0.42 ) 08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims 12/03 ( 255K vs 268K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/26 ( NA vs 2081K ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 12/03 ( NA vs NA )
Broadcom AVGO ( 3.36 vs 2.51 ) Cooper COO ( 2.25 vs 2.00 ) Duluth Trading DLTH ( 0.00 vs 0.04 ) DAVIDs Tea DTEA ( -0.08 vs -0.03 ) Fred’s FRED ( -0.19 vs 0.10 ) Layne Christensen LAYN ( -0.20 vs -0.17 ) Restoration Hardware RH ( 0.16 vs 0.65 )
|
| FRIDAY | Ferrellgas Partners FGP ( -0.52 vs -0.79 ) Medley Capital MCC ( 0.22 vs 0.31 )
Vail Resorts MTN ( -1.56 vs -1.63 ) 10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment December ( 94.3 vs 93.8 ) 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories October ( -0.4% vs 0.1% ) .
The U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 3 Rigs to 477. The Nat Gas rig count increased by 1 to 119, and there is one rig listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 597. . Crude closed higher at $ 51.68 up $ 5.62.The total rig count is lower by 140 from a year earlier. Natural Gas closed the week higher for the week, up 7.3% at 3.436 up $ 0.234. |
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Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Fundamentals
The stock market took a breather after three weeks of solid gains. The S&P 500 surrendered 1.0% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite continued its recent underperformance, falling 2.7%. It is worth noting that the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) eked out a slim gain, logging its fourth consecutive weekly advance.
The outperformance of the Dow has been a common theme since the election as market participants piled into stocks of companies that are expected to benefit from increased infrastructure spending. A portion of the gains in growth-sensitive areas has come at the expense of technology stocks, leading to relative weakness in the NASDAQ. In addition, there has been some speculation that the immigration policy of the next administration could make things a bit more difficult for tech employees to obtain work visas in the US.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 19152.14 | 19170.42 | 18.28 | 0.1 | 10.0 |
| Nasdaq | 5398.92 | 5255.65 | -143.27 | -2.7 | 5.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2213.35 | 2191.95 | -21.40 | -1.0 | 7.2 |
| Russell 2000 | 1347.20 | 1314.25 | -32.95 | -2.4 | 15.7 |
The DJ Transports ( DJ 20 ) 9,048.96 + 4.75 or + 0.05% last week a small gain for the week, but continued their leadership, up again the fifth consecutive week, having surged 1,034 points in a month since October 27th or + 12.9%.
Treasuries ( TLT: $ 119.60 ) – 1.22 or – 1.1% followed through with a rally Friday as average hourly earnings fell short of expectations for November. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1%, November from October, missing the Briefing.com consensus for 0.2% growth. October’s gain was 0.4%. The rest of the employment report painted a rosy picture of steady jobs growth and sharply declining slack in the labor market
The GDP showed growth as the second estimate was revised up to an annual rate of 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) from 2.9% in the advance estimate while the GDP Deflator was revised down to 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%) from 1.5%.
The US dollar ( DXYO: 100.66 – 0.84 or minus 0.8% after having gained + 4.60 or 4.7% since November 4th, finally ran into resistance selling off 0.8%.
Volatility ( VIX: $14.12 +1.78 ) catapulted 14.4% finally rebounded in its first up-week since the election. The index had declined in volatility 50.4% before the rebound, its first since the election. ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term volatility futures ( UVXY: $ 11.44 ) +$ 0.87 or +8.2% a reversal last week after having declined 48.1% since Nov 4th, the Friday before the election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to another record high at 19,170.42 gaining 18 points for the week or 0.10%.Financial stocks were among the biggest winners: Goldman Sachs ( GS: $ 223.36 ) + 11.98 or gaining 5.7%; JP Morgan Chase ( JPM: $ 81.60 ) + $ 2.77 or + 3.5%; Travelers Cos ( TRV: $ 115.65 ) + $ 2.20 or + 1.9%. Three blue-chip stocks were losers again for the second consecutive week: Johnson and Johnson ( JNJ: $ 111.96 ) – $ $ 2.17 or – 1.9% after having dropped $ 1.23 or – 1.1% the previous week; Visa Inc continued its losing ways: ( V: $ 75.72 ) – $ 4.41 or – 5.5% fell from $ 80.13 the previous week which now totals a loss of $ 5.00 or -6% for the last two weeks. Cisco Systems ( CSCO: $ 29.25 ) – $ 0.84 fell another 2.8% last week after having collapsed $ 2.32 over the last two weeks felling below its 200 day moving average and a loss of 7.4%. Cisco has a busted kite pattern from Nov 16th. All three of these stocks were and continue to be excellent shorts using a close above their respective 13 day moving averages as a buy stop point.
Last week speculative traders once again closed out gold long positions and built up short positions. Gold speculators are now at the lowest net long position since early February going into Italy’s Sunday referendum.
We think the referendum will have much less of an impact on gold markets than Brexit and the US Elections. It is more likely that a whiff of inflation will develop around the upcoming anticipation of Trump’s policies.
Despite it being not as volatile, we expect the Euro to strengthen post-referendum and that would weaken the US Dollar and boost gold. Gold may make a worthwhile play if the Euro strengthens relative to the dollar.
The Commitment of Traders report is issued by the CFTC every Friday, to provide market participants a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. In plain English, this is a report that shows what positions major traders are taking in a number of financial and commodity markets
This week’s report showed a drop in speculative gold positions for a third straight week as longs decreased their positions by 11,224 contracts on the week. On the other side, speculative shorts increased their own positions by 6,619 contracts on the week as they gradually build up the gold short position to the highest levels since early February.
The net speculative long position (total speculative longs minus total speculative shorts) now stands at 103,992 contracts. That’s down close to two-thirds from the highest net long position of 286,921 contracts that we saw in early July – quite an adjustment and loss of much of the speculative froth we saw in the summer time.
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Economic Data
The Employment Report for November wasn’t everything the market had expected. However, in our estimation, the report is sufficient to convince the Federal Reserve to raise the fed funds rate at its meeting later this month. That is the key takeaway from the report, which was light on average hourly earnings growth and labor force participation. The Unemployment rate was 4.6% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 4.9% in October.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 (Briefing.com consensus 180,000). Job gains have averaged 180,000 per month so far this year versus an average monthly increase of 229,000 in 2015. October nonfarm payrolls revised to 142,000 from 161,000. September nonfarm payrolls revised to 208,000 from 191,000.
Private sector payrolls increased by 156,000 (Briefing.com consensus 170,000). October private sector payrolls revised to 135,000 from 142,000. September private sector payrolls revised to 205,000 from 188,000.
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 24.8% of the unemployed versus 25.2% in October. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for both unemployed and underemployed workers, dropped to 9.3% from 9.5% in October. The labor force participation rate was 62.7% versus 62.8% in October.
November average hourly earnings were down 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) after being up 0.4% in October. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5% versus 2.8% for the 12-month period ending in October.
The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4). November manufacturing workweek declined 0.2 hours to 40.6 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours.
| Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
| Establishment Survey | |||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 178K | 142K | 208K | 176K | 252K |
| Goods-Producing | 17K | 7K | 21K | -26K | 14K |
| Construction | 19K | 14K | 26K | -6K | 16K |
| Manufacturing | -4K | -5K | -6K | -16K | 2K |
| Service-Providing | 139K | 128K | 184K | 158K | 207K |
| Retail Trade | -8K | -9K | 23K | 17K | 13K |
| Financial | 6K | 9K | 2K | 18K | 17K |
| Business | 63K | 48K | 87K | 28K | 84K |
| Temporary help | 14K | 7K | 3K | -3K | 16K |
| Education/Health | 44K | 44K | 38K | 56K | 42K |
| Leisure/Hospitality | 29K | 15K | 8K | 10K | 36K |
| Government | 22K | 7K | 3K | 44K | 31K |
| Average Workweek | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 |
| Production Workweek | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.7 |
| Factory Overtime | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Aggregate Hours Index | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.2% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Household Survey | |||||
| Civilian Unemp. Rate | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Civilian Labor Force | -226K | -195K | 444K | 176K | 407K |
| Civilian Employed | 160K | -43K | 354K | 97K | 420K |
| Civilian Unemployed | -387K | -152K | 90K | 79K | -13 |
The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 53.2 in November (Briefing.com consensus 52.1) from 51.9 in October. This was the third straight month that manufacturing activity has expanded and it is the highest reading since June 2016.
The report’s summary indicates the average PMI for January through November (51.2) corresponds to a 2.5% increase in real GDP on an annualized basis while the November reading itself corresponds to a 3.2% increase in real GDP annually.
In November, the New Orders Index increased from 52.1 to 53.0. The biggest jumps, though, were seen in the Backlog of Orders Index (from 45.5 to 49.9), which is still contracting but at a slower pace, and the Supplier Deliveries Index (from 52.2 to 55.7), which is slowing but at a faster pace.
Inventories continue to contract, but at a slower pace, as the index for that component increased from 47.5 to 49.0.The Production Index rose from 54.6 to 56.0. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth for November. The Employment Index dipped from 52.9 to 52.3 while the Prices Index was unchanged at 54.5
The key takeaway from the report is that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector is quickening as the year comes to an end, aided by a jump in new orders and production
| Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
| Total Index | 53.2 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 52.6 |
| Orders | 53.0 | 52.1 | 55.1 | 49.1 | 56.9 |
| Production | 56.0 | 54.6 | 52.8 | 49.6 | 55.4 |
| Employment | 52.3 | 52.9 | 49.7 | 48.3 | 49.4 |
| Deliveries | 55.7 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 50.9 | 51.8 |
| Inventories | 49.0 | 47.5 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 49.5 |
| Export Orders | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Prices paid (not seas adj) | 54.5 | 54.5 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 55.0 |
Where To Invest In December 2016
Market Strategies Cycles
The Employment Report will likely be the last important economic event before the Fed meets on December 13-14. The trajectory of the labor market has been reasonably solid with consistent monthly gains since around early 2011. The Fed is widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate this December and the fundamentals are not strong enough to affect that event.
However, the market has generally responded favorably to the December jobs report. Over the last 15 years DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 have all advanced 11 times on the day of the December jobs report. Average gains range from 0.46% for DJIA to 0.71% for Russell 2000. Since 2008, the worst decline was 0.38% by NASDAQ in 2012.
New Sector Seasonality for December
Oil companies typically come into favor in mid-December and remain so until late April through early July in the following year (yellow box in chart below). This trade has averaged 11.9%, 11.6%, and 7.5% gains over the last 15-, 10-, and 5-year periods, This seasonality is not based upon the commodity itself; rather it is based upon NYSE ARCA Oil & Gas index (XOI). This price-weighted index is composed of major companies that explore for and produce oil and gas.
Crude oil’s plunge from over $100 per barrel in 2014 to the lows of earlier this year resulted in a similar dive of XOI. After years of fighting U.S. producers, OPEC appears to finally have come to an agreement to curtail production. As a result crude oil has surged this week and many company’s stocks are following suit. If OPEC can stick to the agreement and actually cut production, higher crude prices should lead to higher profits and stock prices.
SPDR Energy (XLE) is the top pick to trade this seasonality. A new position in XLE could be established on pullbacks with a buy limit of $73.30. Employ a stop loss of $65.97. Take profits at the auto sell of $90.22. Exxon Mobil is the top holding in XLE at 16.55%. The remaining top five holdings of XLE are Chevron, Schlumberger, Pioneer Natural Resources and EOG Resources
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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