What Should I Invest In
August 11, 2014
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Where To Invest $10000
Covering High Return Balanced Stock Market
Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
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August 11, 2014
What Should I Invest In
Investing Strategies Newsletter
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In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479
Over 284% Returns
A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479
The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.
284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013
171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012
77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)
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How To Invest 10000
Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account
Traders Comments
There are 3 Open Positions in the Options Account:
BA August 121 Calls
FB August 72.50 Calls and
SPY August 193.50 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,853
Gain for the week $ 755
Gain for the Year $ 3,967
IS TZAR PUTIN DOING US A FAVOR ???
This week I came in with no positions and only 2 orders in BA and FB. I traded the S&P EFT (SPY) options 4 times and we made $755 bringing the YTD performance up to $3,967.
We closed the week with the two positions in BA and FB as well as the second half (7 contracts) of the SPY 8/193.50 calls trade. Funds in use is $1,853.
The question of where the international flow of money is headed is clearly the U.S. The 10 year
is trading at 2.42% and although the Gold had a big up day on Wednesday, it ran into a brick wall of resistance at $1323 before closing down on the day at $1,309.
The S&P500 closed slightly higher at weeks end at 1931.59 after hitting the 25 week moving average (which it hasn’t closed below since 11/14/12 ) and it only closed below it for one week. This is
clearly important support.
It appears Russia is changing its policy towards Ukraine, as on Thursday night the Russian Agency
( RIA ) tweeted a headline “ Russia seeking to De-Escalate Ukraine Conflict.” This which was attributed to Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security council.
S&P Futures which were trading in the low 1890’s and the Nikkei was reeling at its lowest level in months, immediately turned around and rushed to the upside making up the complete loss and turning the worst event in a couple years to an outside event up and a possible bottom. Make no mistake; these billionaire friends of Putin have the inside track. The markets continued to rally
Friday after the Interfax News service reported that Russia’s military had ended its exercises near
the Ukraine border.
We should expect more news from this group of “insiders” who will influence the markets during this brief encounter of geopolitics until it runs its course. It is far more lucrative to the dictator and his cronies. Remember, they have a VERY long view of how they wish to rebuild Russia.
The Tzar, who is one of the richest men in the world, with vast ownership of real estate that make Donald Trump look like a piker, is making the most of his geo-policies. He was alleged to be present at an opening of a new oil venture between Exxon ( XOM: $ 99.74 ) and the firm, Rosneft OAO( ROSN: LI: 6.022 ) in which the Tzar is rumored to have an interest. Rosneft and Gazprom are the two largest oil companies in Russia. Rosneft agreed to buy Morgan Stanley’s physical oil trading business last December.
The de-escalation, if real, would be welcome to the German market as the DAX has been down 10% this summer, while Italy and France has seen their GDP’s shrink with its effect on our markets. The German Bund yields had plummeted to a record low 1.05% which has had an influence on our low yield as well. Be assured if the geopolitical news is correct, our bonds will sell-off along with an accompanying rise in yields (TBT);
… CAM
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Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account
Trade Table
New Trades:
1) Buy 8 CRM August $ 55 Calls @ $ 0.61 Or better
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 08/08 | Sold 8 SPY 193.50 Calls ( leaves 7 lots long ) | 1.10 | 880 | 376 Gain | |
| 08/08 | Bought 15 SPY August 193.50 Calls | 0.63 | 945 | ||
| 08/07 | Sold 10 SPY August 194 Calls | 0.49 | 490 | 160 Loss | |
| 08/07 | Bought 10 SPY August 194 Calls | 0.65 | 650 | ||
| 08/07 | Sold 7 SPY August 194 Calls | 0.82 | 574 | 35 Gain | |
| 08/07 | Sold 8 SPY August 194 Calls | 1.05 | 840 | 224 Gain | |
| 08/06 | Bought 15 SPY August 194 Calls | 0.77 | 1155 | ||
| 08/06 | Sold 10 SPY August 193.50 Calls | 1.21 | 1210 | 280 Gain | |
| 08/06 | Bought 10 SPY August 193.50 Calls | 0.93 | 930 | ||
| 08/04 | Bought 6 BA August 121 Calls | 1.26 | 756 | ||
| 08/04 | Bought 4 FB August 72.50 Calls | 1.64 | 656 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
| Dow16,553.93+60.56+0.37% | Nasdaq4370.90+18.26 +0.42% |
S&P 5001931.59+6.44+0.33% | Transportation8092.47-28.39-0.35% | Russell 20001131.35+16.49+1.48% | Nasdaq 1003888.09+8.42+0.22% |
| Gold (spot)1308.90+15.10+1.2% | Silver (July)
1994.1-43.0 -2.1% |
Crude97.65-0.23–0.2% | Heating Oil287.69+1.08+0.4% | Unleaded Gas2.7537+0.0094+0.3% | Natural Gas3.962+0.164+4.3% |
| VIX15.77-1.26-7.4% | Put/Call RatiosS&P 10091/100’s-37/100’s | Put/Call RatiosCBOE Equity69/100’s
+1/100’s
|
Bonds139.13 +1153.23% -0.08% | 10 Yr. Note125-31 +232.42% -0.08% | Copper317.35-4.10-1.3% |
| CRB InflationIndex292.43 -0.05
-0.02% |
Barron’s Confidence69.2%-1.0% | S&P100857.89+2.44+0.29% |
5 Yr. Note 119-194 +097 1.62% -0.07% |
Dollar8138+0.08+0.01% | DJ Utilities542.69+2.00+0.37% |
| AAIIConfidenceIndex | Bullish30.9%-0.2% | Bearish38.2%+7.1% | Neutral30.9%-6.9% | M1 Money Supply+11.89July 28th | M-2 MoneySupply+6.56%
July 28th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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Good Stocks To Invest In
New Stock Recommendations $100,000 Portfolio
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
(1 ) Buy 1500 GALE @ $ 3.05 O.B.
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | ||||
| GRPN 500 | 6.35 | 07/31 | |||||||
| WFM 150 | 37.08 | 07/24 | |||||||
| MBI 500 | 9.54 | 07/14 | 7/25 10.02 | $ 240 | |||||
| BCRH 300 | 19.45 | 07/10 | 17.55sco | ||||||
| MVIS 2000 | 2.02 | 06/30 | 1.87sco | 07/15 2.40 | $ 760 | ||||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | |||||||
| GLXZ 5000 | 0.46 | 05/12 | |||||||
| XRGYF 5000* | 0.407 | 03/14 | |||||||
| OSIR 300 | 15.94 | 02/13 | |||||||
| GRPN 500 | 10.40 | 01/28 | |||||||
| RPTP 400 | 15.37 | 01/16 | |||||||
| AA 300 100Sold 200 | 10.06 | 01/10 | 6/26 14.87 | $ 854 | |||||
| WLT 300 | 16.22 | 12/23 | |||||||
| GSG 150 | 32.64 | 12/23 | 32.21 sco | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | |||||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||||
| NBG 300 | 12.10 | 5/23 | |||||||
| HL 1000 | 4.10 | 3/04 | 2.64 sco | ||||||
| AAPL 35 | 76.85 | 11/08/12 | |||||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco | ||||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
New Trades
1) Buy 16 CRM August $ 55 Calls @ $ 0.61 ( or better )
There were four traded and closed out option positions last week, all S&P trades making a gain
of $ 1440.
For the full year now we have profits of $ 16,620.
There were no closed out stock positions.
For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.
We have open position losses now of about $9,554.00 some of which are in coal stocks, NBG and small cap bio-med stocks held over from last year.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American (NAT), BCRH and JP Morgan.
The Stock table has the following 18 positions:
AA, AAPL,BCRH, GRPN (2) , GLXZ; GSG, HL, NBG (3), OSIR, REPR, RPTP, TEXQY, ( WFM long against short Calls ) WLT, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using
$ 60,488 in 18 stock positions with
$ 39,512 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from
ouractual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price,
we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in
a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
| SPYAug193.5030 lots | Calls0.63 | 08/08/14 | 1.10 Sold 15Leaves 15 | 08/08/14 | $ 705.00 |
| SPY Aug 19420 lots | Calls0.65 | 08/07/14 | 0.49 | 08/07/14 | ( $ 320.00 ) |
| SPY Aug 19430 lots | Calls0.77 | 08/06/14 | 1.05 sold 15 lots0.82 Sold remaining 15 | 08/07/14 | $ 420.00$ 75.00 |
| SPYAug193.5020 lots. | Calls0.93 | 08/06/14 | 1.21 | 08/06/14 | $ 560.00 |
| FB Aug 72.508 lots | Calls1.64 | 08/04/14 | |||
| BA Aug 12112 lots | Calls1.26 | 08/04/14 | |||
| WFM Aug 392 lots$ 186 Credit | Calls0.93 | 07/24/13 | ( Short against Long Position ) |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
| Monday | Caesars Acquisition ( CAQG )Priceline ( PCLN 12.06 vs 9.70 )Sysco ( 0.50 )Valero ( VLP) ( 0.18 )Caesars Entertainment ( CZR -1.21 vs -1.69 )Magic Jack- VocalTec ( CALL ( 0.31 )
Rackspace RAX ( 0.16 vs 0.18 )
|
| Tuesday | Array Bio ( ARRY -0.23 vs -0.06 )LGIH 0.33 Noah Holdings ( NOAH 0.33 vs 0.29 )USA Compression Partners ( USAC 0.12 vs 0.08 )10:00 hrs JOLTS-Job Openings June ( NA vs 4.635 Mln
14:00 hrs Treasury Budget July ( -$96.0B vs -97.6B )
Fossil ( FOSL 0.96 vs 1.10 ) Jack Henry ( JKHY 0.60 vs 0.55 )
|
| Wednesday | Deere ( DE 2.23 vs 2.56 )Macys ( M 0.86 vs 0.72 )07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 08/09 ( NA vs +1.6% )08:30 hrs Retail Sales ( 0.3% vs 0.2% )
Retail Sales Ex-Auto July ( 0.3% vs 0.4% )
10:00 hrs Business Inventories June 0.4% vs 0.5% )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 08/09 ( NA vs -1.756 Mln Bbls )
Cisco ( CSCO 0.53 vs 0.52 ) Netease.com ( NTES 1.48 vs 1.37 )
|
| Thursday | Briggs & Stratton ( BGG 0.38 vs 0.22 )Kohls ( KSS 1.07 vs 1.04 )08:30 hrs Initial Claims 08/02 ( 305K vs 289K )08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 08/02 ( 2523K vs 2518K )
08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-ag July ( NA vs -0.3% ) Import Prices ex-oil July ( NA vs -0.1% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 08/09 ( NA vs 82 bcf)
Agilent ( A 0.74 vs 0.68 ) AMAT ( 0.26 vs 0.18 ) Dillards DDS ( 0.88 vs 0.79 ) JC Penney ( JCP ( -0.97 vs -1.17 ) Nordstrom ( JWN 0.95 vs 0.93 )
|
| Friday | Estee Lauder ( EL 0.54 vs 0.24 )JD. Com ( JD -0.04 )08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing Aug ( 15.5 vs 25.6 )09:00 hrs Industrial Production Jul ( 0.3% vs 0.2% )
09:15 hrs Capacity Utilization July ( 79.2 vs 79.1 )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Aug ( 81.7 vs 81.8 )
|
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
The Russell 2000 led all indexes with a 1.48% gain, while the DJ Transportation still managed to decline 0.35% disregarding the rally in the over-all market which throws into suspect the validity of the rally as to whether this constitutes a seasonal low..
The S&P 500 rallied from a low of 1890.25 in Singapore, at midnight our time, to a high of 1928.25, closed at 1923.25 for a gain of 38 points from low to high or 23 points from low to close all on optimistic perceptions that the war in Ukraine will be subsiding. The entire move was worth just 0.93% from Thursday’s low to Friday’s close, buy nonetheless a pleasant relief to the bulls. Leaders on the S&P were Coach ( COH: $ 36.71 ), up 7%, which rallied from its 13 day M.A. to the 50 all in a day; L Brands ( LB: $ 63.20 ), up 9.3%, and declared its 159th consecutive dividend. Tenet Healthcare, up 8.58% and twenty-First century Fox ( FOXA ) were up 7.61% on the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 185 points or 1.13%, up 0.35% for the week. The DJI found support at the 200-day moving average. Home Depot ( HD: $ 82.43 ) the largest mover gaining 2.44% for the day, 3.35 % for the week. Other leaders in the Dow were Caterpillar ( CAT: $ 103.28 ) Up 2.75% on the week; Walt Disney DIS $ 86.75 ), up 1.72%, Procter and Gamble ( PG: $ 80.95 ) up 1.61% and finally, WalMart ( WMT $ 74.67 ) up 1.52%.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Manufacturing in the U.S. and Productivity are increasing concomitantly. Durable goods orders increased 1.7% in June after declining 0.9% in May. That is a significant upward revision from the advance release, which showed durable goods orders up only 0.7% in June. Productivity grew by 2.5% while at the same time hours worked increased 2.7% in the second quarter, up from a 2.1% increase in the first quarter.
That was the largest increase in quarterly hours since Q1 2012 when hours rose 3.2%. Output jumped 5.2% in Q2 2014, which more than reversed the 2.4% decline in the first quarter. That gain was in-line with the second quarter GDP report. An increase in wages led to a 3.1% increase in hourly compensation in the second quarter, down from a 6.8% increase in the first quarter.
The larger increase in output, however, reduced unit labor costs growth from an 11.8% gain in the first quarter to only 0.6% growth in the second. The small increase in unit labor costs leaves a lot of room for future profit growth.
Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 1.9% in June, up from an originally reported 0.8% increase in the advance release. Investment demand also strengthened in the latest report. Orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 3.3% in June as opposed to the 1.4% increase reported in the advance release. Shipments, which factor into second quarter GDP revisions, fell 0.3% in June. That decline was better than the originally reported 1.0% decline.
There is still a sizable backlog of unfilled business investment orders that could lead to stronger shipments and production. Unfilled orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 1.4% in June.
Nondurable goods orders rose 0.6% in June after falling 0.2% in May.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1905
Resistance S&P 500 1955
Support Levels DOW 16,430
Resistance DOW 16,710
Support Levels QQQ 93.78
Resistance QQQ 95.60
Support Levels NASDAQ 4260
Resistance NASDAQ 4445
The momentum oscillators were still very over- sold on a short term basis and put buying had picked up so that the put/call ratio was at levels seen at short term bottoms so the rally today (on some good political news out of the Ukraine) was an unexpected surprise.(there was a lot of short covering).
Also, the ideal time frame for a cycle low was this week and it looks like that at least a short term
(1-2 week) cycle low is in It appears to be a good time to probe for low P/E stocks ( 10 or less )
with solid fundamentals:
CAP, EZPW, MGIC and RELL (selling at cash).
These have very little down side risk and should participate in the rally if it continues.
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New Penny Stock Recommendations
Cleveland BioLabs*
( CBLI $ 0.43xso – stop close only )*
Buy above the 13 day M.A. Or on a break down to $ 0.37 with a stop loss at $ 0.31.
About Cleveland BioLabs, Inc.
Please note that a downloadable transcript of the CBLI 2Q14 conference call on 8/7/14 is available at: http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=172979
Cleveland BioLabs, Inc. is an innovative biopharmaceutical company seeking to develop first-in-class pharmaceuticals designed to address diseases with significant medical need. The company’s lead product candidates are Entolimod, which is being developed as radiation countermeasure and a potential cancer treatment, and Curaxin CBL0137, our lead oncology product candidate. The company conducts business in the United States and in the Russian Federation through our three operating subsidiaries, Incuron, LLC, BioLabs 612, LLC and Panacela Labs, Inc. The company maintains strategic relationships with the Cleveland Clinic, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, and the Children’s Cancer Institute Australia.
To learn more about Cleveland BioLabs, Inc., please visit the Company’s website at http://www.cbiolabs.com
Leo Motors ( LEOM $ 0.04 )*
Has a potential to be the Tesla of Asia. We like it now, above its 13-day moving average.
Please go to www.leomotors.com ( English Version ) Risk is 2 cents.
Target Energy* ( TEX.AX )
Australia, a penny stock while in the USA, ( TEXQY ) a new ADR.
This company trading at a nickel could earn a dime this year ending in June 2015. Aurora Energy Partners associated with Victory Energy ( VYEY: )is a believer; they just paid $ 6 million for a 10% interest in its Fairway Project in the Permian.
Market Strategies Cycles
Seasonal: Bearish. August is the worst DJIA and S&P 500 month since 1987 with average declines of 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. August also ranks last for NASDAQ (–0.3%) and Russell 2000 (–0.7%) over the same time period. In midterm years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve slightly: #10 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #12 NASDAQ (since 1974), #8 Russell 1000 and #11 Russell 2000 (since 1982). Average losses range from 0.6% for Russell 1000 to 2.8% for Russell 2000.
The worst performing sectors in July were: Energy (–6.1%), Utilities (–5.6%), Small/Micro Cap (–4.8%), Semiconductors (–4.5%) and Leveraged Long (–4.0%). Year-to-date, three sectors are now negative: Bear/Short, Small/Micro Cap and Consumer. iShares DJ U.S. Home Construction (ITB) is the only ETF from these year-to-date negative sectors to appear on the 1-Month Losers list. Aside from home builders, ITB also holds positions in Lowes (LOW) and Home Depot (HD). All have struggled this year as the housing recovery has slowed. United States Natural Gas (UNG) and First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG) were the biggest losers in July, off 14.2% and 12.1% respectively.
Fundamentals Call for Retail to Improve: Economic conditions continue to get better and are at least decent- to good across the nation. The Institute of Supply Management reported excellent growth in manufacturing. Employment numbers are constructive. Productivity remains very good to excellent, even though some of the job gains continue to come in the form of low-wage and part-time.. Housing is the weakest area hampered by banking regulations which restrict private individuals from borrowing. New home sales and housing starts are very weak even though existing home sales have held up.
Historically speaking, the consumer sector tends to begin its favorable period at the “ back to school” time at the middle of August. Procter and Gamble ( PG: $ $ 80.95 ) has turned around going from a low of $ 77.32 on July 31st to current levels. Even Wal-Mart ( WMT: $ 74.67 ) appears to be trying to bottom. The entire Consumer Staples has begun to bottom while the Consumer Discretionary ETF ( XLY: $ 66.36 ) got a nice lift from Home Depot ( HD: $ 82.43 ) which at 5.64% is # 4 on the list; Disney, 6.51% is number two ( DIS: $ 86.85 ). Comcast, which is number one of the group at 6.80% ( CMCSA: $ 53.50 ) closed above its 50 day moving average. Amazon ( AMZN: $ 316.80 ) number 3 at 5.7% is not going to be this low at year’s end. McDonald’s ( MCD: $ 93.55 ) number 5, the weakest of the group will not be this low for long. Ford Motor
( F: $ 17.09 ) number 6, comprising 3.21% of the list looks solid.
Coach ( COH: $ $ 36.71 ) which is not one of the members of the ETF made a big move from the depths of despair to further bolster the concept that retail is coming back. Year-to-date many consumer-related stocks have struggled. An unusually long and harsh winter deterred shoppers early in the year and summer vacations have likely tempered sales recently. Second quarter GDP showed that when winter ended shoppers returned; this leaves little reason to expect differently when summer ends.
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Rule 17B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton Research has been paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy.
Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton was paid about 500,000 shares of Leo Motors.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Investing Strategies
