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Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1864 – 1850
Resistance S&P 500 1868
Support Levels DOW 16,180
Resistance DOW 16,588
Support Levels QQQ 89.50
Resistance QQQ 91.44
Support Levels NASDAQ 4248
Resistance NASDAQ 4378
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Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
Higher wages: Also here we had double the expected rise in average hourly earnings: +0.4% instead of 0.2%. Higher wages along with an ample money supply can only indicate at least a whiff of inflation and higher interest rates. The table below illustrates the history of coming out of the Winter weather into the Spring thaw. So far from the end of January both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 5.4% from the close Jan 31st The Dow is up 4.8% and the QQQ 4.9%.
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Market Strategies Cycles
S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 rallied to new all-time closing highs by the end of the month and NASDAQ reached new recovery highs. On a percent basis since 1950, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1979) all put up a top ten February performance this year. Gains ranged from 4.8% for DJIA to 5.4% by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, well above historical averages for February, even in Midterm election years.
Bonds are in big trouble. We want to buy dips in the TBT. Almost any way you look at it, interest rates are headed higher long term. In one scenario, the Fed could actually taper and stop buying treasuries completely, which it will have to do eventually anyway. QE simply cannot go on indefinitely without a serious loss of confidence in the US Dollar (UUP), which is already at 52 week lows. A taper would severely impact the bond market. In a second scenario, when excess reserves start coming into the system, and they will eventually, the Fed may try to set up its reverse repurchase facility and start draining the excess by selling bonds.
The Biotech sector ends its seasonally favorable period in March, Biotechnology. NASDAQ Biotech (IBB: $ 259.40 ), is showing signs of weakness and we would look to sell rallies. Biotechnology was last year’s top performing sector.
Tesla is looking toppy and we will be looking for a reasonably safe place to buy Puts.
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