Options Trading Strategies
February 11, 2013
Market Strategies Newsletter
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Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
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A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Market Strategies
$10,000 Options Trading Account
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Options Trading Strategies Comments
We had another great week last week with a
gain of $1,752
Bringing our YTD total to $12,045
in just 6 weeks
It’s not easy to report or look for trades when it is 16 degrees and you’ve had no heat or electricity since Friday night – Tough to work out of a Starbucks.
When the market gets into a trend – Life is a lot simpler. You find the ones that look good but haven’t moved very far away from support and wait for the technicals to catch up.
I believe that now that everyone hates Apple we can start to trade that one again as soon as we get a little better definition of support, based on some horizontal action.
We are going into the week with a short-term position in VMW, and since I don’t know when I will have power again, I would watch for a break over $80 and a fast run to 83-84. If it doesn’t occur by Wednesday, and you don’t get a text with specific instructions, make sure to watch the 50% down rule to eliminate the position.
Hopefully I will be back on the air well before that………..CAM
Where To Invest Now
Options Trading Strategies Table
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
VIP Subscriber Members Only TEXTING SERVICE TO
RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
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Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies
Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
For any questions please call (702) 650 3000.
Market Strategies Where To Invest Now
Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
Dow 13,992.97 -16.82 -0.12% |
Nasdaq 3193.87 +14.77 +0.46% |
S&P 500 1517.93 +4.76 +0.31% |
Transportation 5,911.33 +54.10 +0.92% |
Russell 2000 913.67 +2.47 +0.27% |
Nasdaq 100 2775.56 +11.60 +0.4% |
Gold (spot) 1666.0 -3.40 -0.2% |
Silver (Dec ) 3144.1 -51.7 -1.6% |
Crude 95.72 -2.05 -2.1% |
Heating Oil 323.84 +7.78 +2.5% |
Unleaded Gas 3.0588 +0.0052 +0.17% |
Natural Gas 3.272 -0.9% |
VIX 13.02 +0.12 +0.9% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 157/100’s +11/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 62/100’s -6/100’s
|
Bonds 143-22 +27 3.167% -0.043% |
10 Yr Note 131-234+194 1.954 -0.056%
|
Copper 375.95 -2.50 -0.66% |
CRB Inflation Index 301.06 -4.01 -1.3% |
Barron’s Confidence 68.2% -0.5% |
S&P100 683.04 +1.30 +0.42% |
5 Yr Note 124-00 +076 0.828% -0.49% |
Dollar 80.21 +1.08 +1.4% |
DJ Utilities 474.46 -0.07 -0.01% |
AAII Confidence Index |
||
Bullish 42.8% -5.2% |
Bearish 29.6% +5.3% |
Neutral 27.6% -0.1% |
M1 Money Supply +11.43% Jan28th |
M-2 Money Supply +6.48% Jan 28th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
No new recommendations
No New Stock Trades for the coming Week unless they are Texted to you.
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
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Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members. Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Options Trading Strategies
Recommendations And Overall Comments
We gained $ 3,414.00 in closed out positions last week.
Our profits for the year rose to $ 26,197
We have four options positions:
The Stock table includes the following fifteen positions:
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $ 7,760 in four options positions and $ 61,422.00 in the15 stock positions a total of $ 69,182. 00 with 30,818.00 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the $100,000 Portfolio
Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
- When the option has doubled sell half the position.
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | Vote by AMR bankruptcy creditors on the proposed merger between US Air and AMR likely today.
Chinese markets remain closed through Thursday for New Year |
Tuesday | 14:00 hrs Treasury Budget Jan
( -$2.0B vs -27.0B )
Prez Obama to deliver State of the Union at 9PM EDT |
Wednesday | Deere, Dr Pepper (Snapple) and Duke Energy
report before the open
Agnico Eagle, Cisco and Tesla Motors report after the close.
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 2/02 ( NA vs 3.4% )
08:30 hrs Retail Sales Jan ( 0.1% vs 0.5% ) Retail Sls less Autos & Trucks ( 0.1% vs 0.3% )
08:30 hrs Export and Import Prices Jan ( -0.2%(exports) and -0.1% (imports)
10:00 hrs Business Inventories Dec ( 0.3% vs Same )
10:30 hrs Crude inventories 02/09 ( NA vs 2.623Mln bbls )
|
Thursday | 08:30 hrs Initial Claims
02/09 ( 365K vs 364K )
Continuing Claims 02/02 ( 3200K vs 3224K )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories ( NA )
Apache, Barrick Gold, Borg Warner Report before the open
VCA Antech and Weingarten Realty after the close |
Friday | 08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing
Feb ( 0.0 vs -7.8 )
09:00 hrs Net Long Term Tic Flows ( NA vs $ 52.3B )
09:15 hrs Industrial Production Jan ( 0.2% vs 0.3% ) Capacity Utilization ( 78.9% vs 78.8% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment ( 73.5 vs 73.8 ) |
Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
Dollar strength created headwinds for the markets last week as the Dow fell below the 14,000 benchmark to close slightly lower at 13,992.97. Basic Materials, off 0.05% and Telecommunications down 0.35% still were the only two losers out of the Ten Dow Industrial Groups. Consumer Goods rose 0.91%; Technology, buoyed by Apple gained 0.61%. Industrials continued positive up 0.47%; Consumer Services added 0.31%; Financials 0.24%; Oil and Gas gained 0.19%. Both Health Care and Utilities gained 0.18%.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The Trade deficit narrowed to -$38.5Bln in December from -$48.6Bln in November, the lowest deficit since December 2010. U.S. Petroleum exports soared to $ 11.63 Bln, up 1,0565% from December 1999.Petroleum imports fell 11% to $ 30.3 Bln down 21% from a year earlier. Hydraulic fracturing or fracking has unlocked more deep oil reserves as well as more natural gas, which is a cheap source of energy reducing demand for foreign supplies. Total imports fell $6.2Bln to $ 224.9Bln in December from $231.1Bln November.
Productivity fell 2.0% in the 4th Qtr after having increased to an upwardly revised 3.2% from 2.9% in the third quarter. This was the first decline in productivity since the first Qtr 2012. Unit Labor costs catapulted 4.5% in the 4th Qtr after having declined 2.3% in the 3rd Qtr.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1498-1505
Resistance S&P 500 1528-1535
Support Levels DOW 13815-13895
Resistance DOW 14150-14198
Support Levels QQQ 6700-6740
Resistance QQQ 6889-69-20
Support Levels Nasdaq 3157
Resistance Nasdaq 3438
Market Strategies Cycles
The S&P 500 has rallied from 1398.11 Dec 31st to 1513.1 ( +8.2% ) and the Dow from 13,104.14 to 14,009.49 for the week ended February 1st ( +6.9% ) and the first five weeks of the year.
Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered only seven major errors since 1950 for an 88.9% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the seven major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August. Two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001.The market in January 2003 was held down by the anticipation of military action in Iraq. The second worst bear market since 1900 ended in March of 2009 and Federal Reserve intervention influenced 2010. Including the eight flat years yields a .762 batting average.
Once again, technical indicators and sentiment readings are at similar levels to about this time last year and in 2011 and 2010. Markets were struggling at resistance following sizeable gains in a relatively short period of time and sentiment was either excessively bullish or awfully close to it. In each of those years, the market eventually took a breather to overcome the excesses that had built up. In 2010 and 2011 the pullback was more pronounced than the brief dip in 2012 (blue arrows). Shortly thereafter, the market quickly recovered and marched onward and upward to a new recovery high.
Barring some truly disastrous event, we still expect a brief pullback from resistance followed by a rally over the next 2-4 months, perhaps to marginally new all-time highs for the DJIA and S&P 500 and NASDAQ 3300. Then debt ceiling, spending cut and sequester politicking are likely to exacerbate bearish seasonal and cyclical forces, conspiring to knock this bull market down off its high horse. If a major debacle is avoided in Washington and the geopolitical environment remains sanguine, then 2013 is likely to be bear free.
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Rule 17 B Attestations:
*Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believ the three small penny stocks we represent for a total outlay of $ 9,725 is well worth the risk.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Phone: (702) 650-3000
Fax: (702) 697-8944
Visit: www.princetonresearch.com
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