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Charles Moskowitz Traders Discussion
The market is getting tired and the internals have weakened and the Advance / Decline numbers have gone to more stocks and volume down than up on several days last week even with the new highs. This is a typical “narrowing of the leadership” that often occurs before a decline. This should not be interpreted as the end of the advance, but rather the time for a pull back after the extreme advance that has occurred since Election Day. The market has been driven by a combination of factors but the one outstanding component has been the financials.
Based both on the increases in economic activity and the rise in the yield curve the financials have propelled this market higher in dramatic fashion, but the reality is that this has been based on the coming tax plan and other positives that are going to take time to unfold. Infrastructure is talked about but nothing constructive is happening, the tax plan is wonderful except that the details are in a state of flux, and these are not areas that the president can sign into existence. The “Trump Trade” is showing signs of weakness and the aforementioned yield curve has flattened all this week. The 10 year treasuries fell from a high in the 2.50% range back to close closer to 2.30%.
The one thing that seems to be in the cards is a healthy dose of inflation in our future, and the gold has broken above the areas I have been discussing for the last three weeks.
The one thing that seems to be in the cards is a healthy dose of inflation in our future, and the gold has broken above the areas I have been discussing for the last 3 weeks.
While we may see a pull back here the next area of resistance is $1,280-1,300. Two of our three positions are in metals.
Finally, we took a loss in the SPY puts (actually took the week from plus to negative) and I will be continuing to look for places to by “protection” as we move higher with the weakening internals…CAM
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