Read the December 12, 2016 Market Investing Strategies
Options Trading Newsletter
in .pdf format – HERE
December 12, 2016
Market Strategies Newsletter – Sample Issue
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2016 Newsletter Covering:
Options Trading Alerts
Options Trading Services
Options Trading Newsletter
Options Trading Strategies
Stock Options Trading Alerts
Best Option Trading Strategies
Best Stocks To Invest In
Top Stocks To Invest In
Stocks To Invest In Now
Stock Market Investing News
Proven Profits Trading Success
Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:
19% Profits on XLF December 23.50 Puts in 6 days
163% Profits on SJM December 130 Calls in 23 days
37% Profits on GSK Jan 38 Calls for in 8 days
50% Loss on TLT December 23rd 119 Calls in 3 days
100% Profits on SJM December 130 Calls in 3 days
340% Profits on SIG November 85 Calls in 10 Days
93% Profits SPY November 9th 212 in 3 Days
100% Loss on SPY November 11th 210 Puts in 2 Days
58% Profits on SPY November 2 214 Puts in 9 Days
109% Profits on SPY November 2 214 Puts in 8 Days
58% Profits on SPY Nov 2 Puts n 3 Days
55% Loss on SPY Oct 28 Puts in 5 Days
123% Profits on SPY Oct 19 Puts in 2 Days
300% Profits on SPY Oct 12 Puts in 2 Days
15% Profits on SPY Oct 19 Puts in 2 Days
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Best Option Trading Strategies
$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
We have 3 open trades:
Long 5 SJM December 130 Calls
Long 10 GSK Jan 38 Calls
Long 6 XLF December 23.50 Puts
Funds in Use = $941
Week 49 had a small loss of $390 bringing YTD gains back down to $8610 on only one closed out position in the SPY puts. We closed the week with three open positions in SJM calls, GSK calls and XLF puts. The SJM is the second half of our original call position on which we had to take a 100% gain the day after it was initiated @ $ .55, and they closed today @ $1.45 for an additional gain of $450. The GSK calls closed right where we bought them and we have a loss of less than $100 on the XLF puts.
This market has been nothing short of remarkable in it continuing rally since Election Day. As I’ve said here often, there is nothing that changes direction faster than political or geopolitical change. The shift in sentiment that has taken place caught this market completely off guard and the rotation from group to group has taken every sector higher.
I’ve been slow to jump on board with this market for a lot of reasons, and for most of the year it has paid off. We had good gains for the first half while everyone was doing poorly and now that they are catching up (sort of) and we had a minor down week while the market made new highs across the board, I see no reason to change sides. My concern is with the context in which this market is operating. We are discounting not just the Fed moving this week, but several more times in the new year, and maybe even in the first quarter. This is a real problem since bad things tend to happen when interest rates are on the rise. Higher rates tend to make for a strong US$, which causes the big Cap multinationals to suffer both top and bottom line. President-elect Trump, a big fan of deficit spending and debt will be racking up ever increasing carrying charges for that spending at a time that we can ill-afford it. I’m just saying, this market is running well ahead of itself.
The financials look great. The problem is that they cannot return to the record ROI’s they had at 20:1 leverage. Now that Dodd-Frank exists, Mr. Trump may be committed to rolling back some of that, but it isn’t happening anytime soon. He’s not even in office yet.
There are just too many charts that have gone parabolic for me, so I’m going to keep it very light until the calendar rolls to 2017 and the big inflow of funds takes place in January to make any real directional decisions. Until then I’ll just play the best positions
I can find with the closest stops…CAM
Best Option Trading Strategies
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account
Trade Summary Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 12/08 | Bought 6 XLF December 23.50 Puts | 0.31 | 186 | ||
| 12/06 | Bought 6 GSK January 38 Calls | 0.80 | 480 | ||
| 12/05 | Sold 10 SPY December 9th 218.50 Puts | 0.38 | 390 Loss | ||
| 11/30 | Bought 10 SPY December 9th 218.50 Puts | 0.77 | 770 | ||
| 11/21 | Bought 5 SJM December 130 Calls | 0.55 | 275 |
3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
New Trades Will Be TEXTED To MEMBERS
Where to invest Now
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
Stock |
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| GSK 200 | 37.52 | 12/06 | |||||
| GDX 150 | 20.99 | 12/05 | |||||
| GDX 150 | 20.65 | 12/05 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 69.05 | 12/01 | |||||
| SCO 20 | 74.41 | 11/30 | |||||
| RWM 100 | 50.60 | 11/21 | |||||
| ANW 500 | 10 | 11/17 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 22.88 | 11/14 | |||||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| AA 500 | 10.43 | 07/25 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Best Stocks To Invest In
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There was one sold options position
20 SPY December 9th 218.50 Puts were sold on the 50% loss rule at $ 0.38 for a loss of $ 780.
There were no closed stock positions.
The net result for the week was a loss of $780.
For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits were reduced by $ 780 to $25,866.
Open trade losses decreased to $12,912.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 20 positions:
AA ( 2 ) AMBA, ANW, CTL, EYES( 2 ), GDX ( 2 ) GSK, MOS ( 2 ),REPR, RWM, SAN, SCO ( 2 ), SPXU, TEXQY, TWTR
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
The money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
The options position requires $ 550. We are using a total of $71,719
plus $ 2,090 for the options which totals $ 73,809 for the 17 open long stock positions,
leaving $ 26,191 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Best Stocks To Invest In
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
| GSK Jan 38
12 lots |
Calls
0.80 |
12/06/16 | |||
| SJM Dec 130
10 lots |
Calls
0.55 |
11/21/16 | |||
| SPY Dec 9th 218.50
20 lots |
Puts
0.77 |
11/30/16 | 0.38
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
12/05/2016 | ( $ 780 ) |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Stocks To Invest In Now
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
The Boeing closed over the 50-day M.A. at $ 132 in early October and we have been long. Also Defense spending has continued decent. Hold with a suitable stop loss.
We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 with a stop loss at $47.42.
We sold the Amazon short at $828 and covered on the opening November 8th.
We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in the Flushing Financial.
You should buy the HDGE since it closed above the 13 DMA.
We are looking to buy the GSCI symbol GSG, a commodity indexed fund managed by Goldman.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| GSG | GSCI | Commodity Indexed Fund | 15.42 | 15.00 | 14.50x | |||
| TPC | Tutor Perini | Construction | 12 | 0.25 | 1.3B | 28.60 | 19.40
10/31/16 |
24.90x |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 13 | 1.6 | 3.6B | 59.06 | 46.15 | 51.75sco |
| BMY | Bristol Myers | Biopharmaceutical Products | 28 | 5.1 | 94.9B | 57.04 | 49.20
10/17/16 |
55.45sco
Stopped out 12/07 |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalogue and Mail Order | 200 | 3.18 | 388B | 768.66 | 828 Sold Short
10/24 16 |
771.57 covered short 11/7 on opening |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 156.49 | Long at
132 10/04/16 |
Stop at 147.21 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 5.98 | 6.21 | 5.64sco |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 29.23 | 19.10
06/27 |
24.65x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 32.65 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 29.20
Equivalent Look to get long |
| VA | Virgin Air | Regional Airlines | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.5B | 57.00 | 30.30
Bought 02/10/16 |
Sell to take profits |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 7.06 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 23.09
|
Bought at 15.42
9/30/16 |
17.60x |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 9.48
|
No Position currently | Buy at 9.56sco |
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Stocks To Invest In Now
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems,Inc ( OTCQX: REPR 0.41 )*
My recent visited Medica in Dusseldorf and was warmly received by our RMS Medical Products, reports Andy Sealfon, CEO of REPR. European distributors greeted me with bear hugs, grins, and many personal thanks for making this trip immediately after my travels to Barcelona for ESID. We had enthusiastic discussions as to the impressive growth potential for the UK and Scandinavian regions, and for expansion into Germany. We are working on the formation of a Clinical Advisory Panel for Europe, and our UK distributor has begun conversations with one of the lead nurses in the largest UK hospital.
There is a new application for our High Flo Subcutaneous needle sets for treatment of Parkinson’s disease, which is an entirely new market for us. We have new trials going on all over Europe, and the possibility of one in Russia, in partnership with several pharmaceutical companies. We’ll soon have trials in Germany, Sweden, and probably Italy. We are preparing a new market launch of an addition to our system designed for Facilitated Subcutaneous Immune Globulin (FSCIg) which was subject of a Swedish trial, and was such a hit (human factors study showed 95% out of 100 satisfaction), that patients are lining up and building pressure for us to begin delivery which we are working hard to accomplish. This new system is also under trial in Germany. For the first time patients are able to perform the delivery at home without nursing support. We are working with large Pharma companies to deliver their new drugs to our markets widening the market for our High Flo 24 gauge needles.
We are excited about the individuals that comprise our Europe team. As individuals, they each bring unique talents and collectively I believe they are unstoppable. Chatarina S., Global VP of Marketing located in Sweden, will assist the sales team for the Scandinavian region while still performing marketing and clinical support. Markus D. our super salesperson in Germany is working hard to get our new distributor there up and running. Manal H., based in the USA, is the glue that binds this team together. She is always in the lead initiating new dynamics for the team and the Company. Dr. Sabino Loiodice, who is our new Director of European Sales and Marketing, has great experience along with the ideal European charm, maturity, and a very modern approach to management which embraces coaching, mentoring, and preempting obstacles. I expect great things from this super team!
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 7.06 )*
The activity in Enzo Biochem has shown it to be a rock star in the Biotech arena. Prior to the election the Biotech index was trading in Bear Market territory with many stocks having given up 50% or more from their 12 month highs. Enzo is up 47.56% for the year and up 56.6% for 12 months. The Relative strength index is close to 70 which is getting into overbought territory.
A small pullback would not be a bad thing to move stock from weak to strong hands. Why this may not happen: Announcements of new product approvals from the New York regulatory agency for new Ampiprobe products filling in the pipeline for Women’s Health Care Products. A Scientific Paper on Enzo’s new line of products to allow for a more precise interpretation of tumor biopsies.
NIH announcement of results on their multi year trial using Enzo’s Optiquel for the treatment of Uveitis and Macular Degeneration.
Updates on the Litigations in Delaware.
The last earnings report showed a cash position in excess of $65 million with no debt to speak of and a positive cash flow from their operating divisions. The only cash burn is coming from Litigation expenses and a bit from Research and Development. Litigation in Delaware is on a contingency basis as such Enzo is not on the hook for billable hours. To my knowledge there are 6 suits left after 6 have settled.
When the company gets a 500 million dollar market cap ($10.63) they will qualify for those Institutions that can’t buy microcap stocks. A significant number of Institutions will look to be buyers and with only 47 million shares issued and Institutions already owning 50% and insiders owning 15% that leaves less than 17 million shares in the float.
Pressure BioSciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.29 )*
has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test
samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market.
PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure.
This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules.
Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction, homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure BioSciences Inc is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. ( NGTF 0.28 )*
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient.
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed. Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested.
Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods. There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals.
Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week. More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
Leo Motors ( LEOM: $ 0.08 )*
has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN ( Controller Area Network ) based, which enables mobile diagnosing between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
Galaxy Gaming ( GLXZ: $ 0.59 )
engages in the design, development and manufacturing of table games and related products for the casino industry worldwide. Located in over 500 casinos around the globe, the Company offers a large portfolio of the world’s most popular side bets and proprietary table games. Additionally, the Company has a line of systems and associated equipment which provide casino operators with enhanced profitability, automation and security of table game operations.
Stock Market Investing News
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
19,756.85 +586.43 +3.06% |
Nasdaq
5444.50 +188.85 |
S&P 500
2259.53 +67.58 +3.08% |
Transportation
9407.19 +358.23 +3.96% |
Russell 2000
1388.07 +73.82 +5.62% |
Nasdaq100
4895.90 +156.53 +3.30% |
| Gold (spot)
1159.40 -15.70 -1.3% |
Silver
1696.7 +13.5 +0.8% |
Crude
51.50 -0.18 -0.4% |
Heating Oil
163.74 -2.07 -1.3% |
Unleaded Gas
1.5073 -0.0518 -3.3% |
Natural Gas
3.746 +0.310 +9.0% |
| VIX
11.75 -2.37 -16.8% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 86/100’s -51/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 53/100’s -8/100’s
|
Bonds
148-16 -2-00 3.16% +0.10% |
10 Yr. Note
124-01 -14 2.47%+0.08%
|
Copper
264.75 +2.25 +0.9% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 191.98. -0.29 -0.2% |
Barron’s* Confidence
74.7 +0.8 |
S&P100
996.02 +29.74 +3.08% |
5 Yr. Note
117-227 -065 1.89% +0.06%
|
Dollar
101.59 +0.93 +0.9% |
DJ Utilities
645.86 +13.64 +2.16% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
43.1% -0.7%
38.4% |
Bearish
26.5% +1.4%
30.30% |
Neutral
30.4% -0.7%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +8.39% Nov 28th
|
M2 Money
Supply +8.04% Nov 28th |
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Stock Market Investing News
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2207 2289
Dow 19,255 19,940
QQQ 117.36 120.20
Transports 9120 9595
NASDAQ 5315 5645
Stock Market Investing News
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Novocure holds a research and development day.
Many Markets are closed for an Islamic holiday. 14:00 hrs Treasury Budget November ( -$135.0Bln vs -$56.8Bln )
Investors Real Estate Trust IRET ( 0.12 vs 0.06 ) Perigrine pharma PPHM ( -0.02 vs -0.07 ) VeriFone PAY ( 0.29 vs 0.49 ) |
| TUESDAY | GMS GMS 0.48
08:30 hrs Import Prices ex oil November ( NA vs -0.1% )
China reports on monthly industrial production and retail sales. ABM Industries ABM ( 0.50 vs 0.55 ) HEICO HEI ( 0.62 vs 0.56 ) Nordson NDSN ( 1.24 vs 0.95 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Exterran Corporation EXTN ( -0.29 ) Hain Celestial HAIN ( 0.56 vs 0.55 ) Joy Global JOY ( 0.16 vs 0.43 ) Quanex NX ( 0.37 vs 0.29 ) Smart Sand SND ( -0.03 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 12/10 ( NA vs -0.7% ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales November ( 0.3% vs 0.8% ) Retail Sales ex auto November ( 0.4% vs 0.8% ) 08:30 hrs PPI November ( +0.1% vs 0.0% ) CORE PPI November ( + 0.2% vs -0.2% ) 09:15 hrs Industrial Production November ( -0.1% vs 0.0% ) Capacity Utilization November ( 75.1% vs 75.3% ) 10:00 hrs Business Inventories October ( -0.1% vs +0.1% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 12/10( NA vs -2.389 Mln Bbls ) 14:00 hrs FOMC Rate Decision ( 0.625% vs 0.375% ) Janet Yellen holds a news conference Apogee Enerprises APOG ( 0.77 vs 0.63 ) Arrowhead ARWR -0.31 Civitas Software CIVI ( 0.19 vs 0.12 ) Lakeland Industries LAKE ( 0.20 vs 0.29 ) Pier 1 Imports PIR ( 0.13 vs 0.13 ) |
| THURSDAY | Sanderson Farms SAFM ( 2.48 vs 1.22 ) Scholastic Corp SCHL ( 1.92 vs 1.89 )
08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims 12/03 ( 255K vs 268K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Unemployment Claims 11/26 ( NA vs 2081K ) 08:30 hrs CPI November ( + 0.2% vs 0.4% ) CORE CPI November ( + 0.2% vs + 0.1% ) 08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing December ( 3.0% vs 1.5% ) 08:30 hrs Current Account Balance 3rd Qtr ( -$111.6Bln vs -$119.9Bln ) 10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index December ( 63 vs 63 ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 12/03 ( NA vs -42bcf ) 16:00 hrs Net Long term TIC Flows October ( NA vs -$26.2Bln ) President- elect Trump will hold a news conference explaining how he will separate himself from his business interests.
AAR Corp AIR ( 0.35 vs 0.30 ) Adobe Systems ADBE ( 0.86 vs 0.62 ) Jabil Circuit JBL ( 0.64 vs 0.85 ) MTS Systems MTSC ( 0.75 vs 0.61 ) Oracle ORCL ( 0.61 vs 0.63 ) |
| FRIDAY | 08:30 hrs Housing Starts November ( 1225K vs 1323K )
Building Permits November ( 1236K vs 1229K ) Investor Outlook Conference: Met Life and Honeywell Int’l post quarterly results. The U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 21 Rigs to 498. The Nat Gas rig count increased by 6 to 125, and there is one rig listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 624. . Crude closed higher at $ 51.50 down $ 0.18.The total rig count is lower by 113 from a year earlier. Natural Gas closed the week higher for the week, up 7.3% at 3.436 up $ 0.234. |
Stock Market Investing News
Market Strategies Fundamentals
The stock market enjoyed another strong week that lifted all the major stock indexes to new record highs. The Russell 2000 was again the biggest gainer up 73.82 points or + 5.62%.The S&P 500 rallied 3.1% while the Nasdaq Composite was up 189 points or +3.6% and outperformed as strength in technology offset relative weakness among biotechnology names. The Dow added 586.43 points or 3.06% to new record highs at 19,756.85.
Last week was quiet in terms of news, but stocks continued pushing higher, keeping post-election trends intact. Biotechnology names took a tumble on Wednesday after President-elect Donald Trump said he wants to lower drug prices. However, the industry group rebounded over the next couple days, ending the week on a modestly higher note, up 0.64%, the lowest gainer among Dow Industry Groups.
The DJ Transports ( DJ 20 ) 9,407.19 + 358.23 or + 3.96% last week, a huge gain for the week and continuing their leadership, up again the sixth consecutive week, having surged 1,392 points in a month since October 27th or + 17.4%.
Gains in the Dow were wide-spread in participation as all ten Dow Industrial Groups were soundly higher: Financials were up the most, 4.59% followed by Technology up 4.34%; Telecommunications gained 3.84%; Consumer Goods 3.73%; Basic Materials 3.34%; Consumer Services 3.09%; Utilities 2.61%; Oil and Gas 2.30%; Industrials, up 2.27% and Health Care gaining just 0.64%. Disney was one of the strongest ( DIS: $ 104.86 ) + $ 6.36 or + 6.5%; JP Morgan Chase ( JPM: $ 85.49 ) + $ 3.89 or + 4.8%; Intel ( INTC: $ 35.76 ) + $ 1.60 or + 4.7%; Chevron ( CVX: $ 115.81 ) + $ 2.81 or + 2.5%; Procter and Gamble ( PG: $ 84.37 ) + $ 1.97 or + 2.4%; and Exxon Mobil ( XOM: $ 89 ) + $ 1.96 or + 2.3%.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 19170.42 | 19756.85 | 586.43 | 3.1 | 13.4 |
| Nasdaq | 5255.65 | 5444.50 | 188.85 | 3.6 | 8.7 |
| S&P 500 | 2191.95 | 2259.53 | 67.58 | 3.1 | 10.5 |
| Russell 2000 | 1314.25 | 1388.08 | 73.83 | 5.6 | 22.2 |
Equity indices enjoyed an upbeat start to the week, rising alongside European stocks, even though the results of the constitutional reform referendum in Italy led to political uncertainty going forward. Italian citizens voted 59-41 to reject a proposal that would have reformed the country’s Senate. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered his resignation, but Italian President Sergio Mattarella did not accept that resignation until after Wednesday’s passage of a budget for 2017.
On Thursday, stocks climbed after the release of the latest policy statement from the European Central Bank. The ECB made no changes to its interest rate corridor, but announced that its asset purchase program will be extended until December. The news of an extension overshadowed the revelation that the pace of purchases will slow to EUR60 billion from EUR80 billion, starting in March. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank will buy assets that have a lower yield than the current deposit rate, which was met with a slide in the euro.
Next week will be highlighted by the December FOMC meeting, which is expected to conclude with the first rate hike since last December. The market is all but certain that a rate hike will happen next week, evidenced by the fed funds futures market, which showed a 97.2% implied probability of a rate hike on Friday afternoon.
Treasuries ( TLT: $ 117.50 ) – 2.10 or – 1.75% collapsed to new lows for the year. Michigan Consumer Sentiment jumped to 98.0 for December from 93.8 in November its highest level since January. The Briefing.com expectations were for a reading of 94.34. Fewer consumers complained about higher prices eating into living standards than at any time since 2002. Current Conditions came in at 112.1 ( 107.3 prior ) and Consumer Expectations at 88.9 ( 85.2 prior ) both much better than expected.
The US dollar ( DXYO: 101.59 + 0.93 or plus 0.9% after having gained + 4.70 or 4.85% since November 4th. Volatility ( VIX: $11.75 -2.37 ) dropped 16.8% last week, which is supportive of high stock prices. The Pro-Shares Ultra Vix Short-Term volatility futures ( UVXY: $ 9.14 ) -$2.30 or -20.1% accelerated their decline breaking below the 13-day price moving average.
The US Dollar and the Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting
US Dollar speculative net long positions rose to $28.14 billion, which is the third straight week they have rose and US Dollar speculators are at their highest net-long position since early January.
We believe it is not coincidence that this is occurring right before the US Federal Reserve meeting, which the Fed has essentially committed to a 25-basis point increase in the Federal Funds rate. While everybody expects the Fed to raise rates, there are a lot of speculators still playing further US Dollar strength, but the surprise for the US Dollar post-Fed meeting might be on the downside – which would probably be helpful for gold.
It comes down to the post-Fed meeting conference and statement, as the 25-basis point rise is already built into investor expectations. We think the Federal Reserve does NOT want to strengthen the US Dollar OR increase yields on US debt. Bad things happen when interest rates rise. The world is over-leveraged with a president-elect that has promised massive deficit spending. Rising interest rates will be factored in as at least a temporary headwind to stocks.
In short, the Federal Reserve is behind in the Rate Hiking curve, and the stock market bubble is clearly screaming that the Fed has already lost control of “Running a Hot Economy”. The Fed may have to play catch up in 2017 and raise the Fed Funds Rate at least 4 times and maybe more to curb some of the excessive valuations in the stock market, otherwise risk a higher likelihood of an outright Market Crash Scenario.
If we look back to the 2000 Market Crash, and the 2008 Market Crash and compare the current overall stock market valuations to these recent time periods, we are over-leveraged. The cheaper money punchbowl will be taken away as interest rates are raised back to more normalized levels of 3 to 5%.
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Stock Market Investing News
Market Strategies Economic Data
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index checked in at 57.2 for November (Briefing.com consensus 55.6), up from 54.8 in October. The ISM Manufacturing report was also much better coming in at 53,2 vs 52.1 expected and 51/9 the previous month.
November marked a 12-month high for the index and it was the highest reading since October 2015.
November was the 82nd straight month the non-manufacturing sector operated in an expansion mode (the dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0).
The Employment Index drove the uptick in November, rising from 53.1 to 58.2 (highest since October 2015). The New Orders Index slipped from 57.7 to 57.0, but still remains on a growth track with a reading above 50.0. The Prices Index dipped from 56.6 to 56.3, reflecting a slower pace of price increases than the previous month.
The key takeaway from the report is that the non-manufacturing side of the economy, which is a much bigger chunk of the economy than the manufacturing side, is still humming. The November reading, according to the Institute for Supply Management, corresponds to a 3.3% increase in real GDP on an annualized basis based on the past relationship between the index and the overall economy.
| Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
| Non-Manufacturing ISM index | 57.2 | 54.8 | 57.1 | 51.4 | 55.5 |
| Business Activity | 61.7 | 57.7 | 60.3 | 51.8 | 59.3 |
| New Orders | 57.0 | 57.7 | 60.0 | 51.4 | 60.3 |
| Employment | 58.2 | 53.1 | 57.2 | 50.7 | 51.4 |
| Deliveries (nsa) | 52.0 | 50.5 | 51.0 | 51.5 | 51.0 |
| Inventories (nsa) | 51.5 | 52.0 | 51.5 | 48.0 | 54.0 |
| Exports (nsa) | 57.0 | 55.5 | 56.5 | 46.5 | 55.5 |
| Imports (nsa) | 54.0 | 53.0 | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.0 |
| Prices Paid | 56.3 | 56.6 | 54.0 | 51.8 | 51. |
Productivity for the 3rd Quarter was unchanged at 3.1% (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%) while Unit Labor Costs were revised higher to show an increase of 0.7%.The third quarter marked the first increase in productivity after three consecutive declines in the measure.
From the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016, productivity was unchanged. Unit labor costs have increased 3.0% over the last four quarters. Output increased 3.6% and hours worked increased 0.5%, resulting in the 3.1% annual rate for third quarter nonfarm business sector labor productivity.
The upward revision in unit labor costs was owed to an upward revision in hourly compensation growth from 3.4% to 3.8%.
For the second quarter, productivity was left unrevised at -0.2%, yet unit labor costs were revised up to 6.2% from a previously reported 3.9% increase due mainly to a large upward revision to hourly compensation.
The key takeaway from the revised data is that higher unit labor costs may not be the best thing for corporate profit margins, yet there is an encouraging element for consumer spending growth since the revision for unit labor costs was driven solely by an increase in hourly compensation growth.
| Category | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 |
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||
| Productivity Q/Q | 3.1% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -2.4% | 2.0% |
| Unit Labor Costs Q/Q | 0.7% | 6.2% | -0.3% | 5.7% | 0.8% |
| Productivity Y/Y | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Unit Labor Costs Y/Y | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
The Trade Deficit widened to $42.6 billion in October (Briefing.com consensus -$41.8 bln) from an upwardly revised $36.2 billion deficit (from -$36.4 bln) in September.
The widening in the deficit was a function of October exports being $3.4 billion less than September exports and October imports being $3.0 billion more than September imports. The drop in exports was paced by a $1.4 billion decrease in food, feeds, and beverages, which was led by a $1.0 billion drop in soybean exports
Exports of industrial supplies and materials decreased by $1.0 billion, with nonmonetary gold (-$0.5 billion) and fuel oil (-$0.5 billion) driving the downturn
Exports of consumer goods decreased by $0.9 billion, driven entirely by a $1.0 billion decline in exports of artwork, antiques, and stamps.
Import growth was paced by a $2.4 billion increase in consumer goods and a $1.1 billion increase in capital goods, except automotive.
The key takeaway from the report is that net exports will be a drag on fourth quarter real GDP growth, as the real trade deficit in October was $60.3 billion versus the third quarter average of $56.6 billion.
| Category | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN |
| Trade Deficit | -$42.6B | -$36.2B | -$40.6B | -$39.6B | -$44.7B |
| Exports | $186.4B | $189.8B | $188.0B | $186.4B | $183.0B |
| Imports | $229.0B | $225.9B | $228.6B | $226.0B | $227.7B |
Stock Market Investing News
Market Strategies Cycles
Copper has a tendency to make a major seasonal bottom in December and then a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the building construction season begins in late-winter to early-spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late-summer. Traders can look to go long a May futures contract on or about December 14 and hold until about February 23. In this trade’s 44-year history, it has worked 28 times for a success rate of 63.6%. This trade produced gains in ten of eleven years from 2001 to 2011, but has been down four years straight. Last year’s loss could have been avoided with a few more days of holding the long position into early March when copper briskly rebounded.
Cumulative profit, based upon a single futures contract excluding commissions and fees, is a respectable $68,988. Better than one-fourth of that profit came in 2007, as the cyclical boom in the commodity market magnified that year’s seasonal price move. However, this trade has produced other big gains per single contract, such as a $14,475 gain in 2011, and even back in 1973, it registered another substantial $9,475 gain. These numbers show this trade can produce big wins and big losses if not properly managed. A basic trailing stop loss could have mitigated many of the losses.
In the above chart, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves and seasonal pattern are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is highlighted in yellow. Ahead of Election Day, copper was already beginning to make a move and once Trump was declared the winner, it rocketed higher on potentially higher domestic growth and infrastructure spending. But, even at current levels, copper is still well off its highs from 2011 near $4.50 a pound. The move higher could continue especially if Trump is successful in his first 100 days in office.
SPDR Energy (XLE) is the top pick to trade this seasonality. A new position in XLE could be established on pullbacks with a buy limit of $73.30. Employ a stop loss of $65.97. Take profits at the auto sell of $90.22. Exxon Mobil is the top holding in XLE at 16.55%. The remaining top five holdings of XLE are Chevron, Schlumberger, Pioneer Natural Resources and EOG Resources
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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