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May 15, 2017

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Charles Moskowitz Discussion


We have only 2 open positions in HL 6/6 calls and SJM 6/130 calls with a total of $900 of funds in use. Over the last several weeks I have mentioned that the VIX has continued to move lower to historic lows seen only 4 times in the last several decades and that with these low values the prices on “protection” has become remarkably cheap.  I also said that this has created an opportunity for us to trade short-dated SPY options that are close to or “at the money” since the premiums have become almost non-existent.  This week’s trades took advantage of this situation.  Of the 6 trades we made this week, 5 were short-dated SPY’s and one was a 50% down rule liquidation (AKAM).  These were very short-term (overnight or day-trade) and all were net gains.

Retail has clearly been decimated over the past several months and although it looks as if these stocks are getting cheap, I’m not so sure it’s over.  Macy’s (M) is down 18% this week and 48% since just before Xmas shopping season and it’s hard to argue how oversold it is, but while it may bounce here, the fundamental side of it looks more like a classic “value trap.”  All the talk about the value of its real estate is, in my opinion, a bogus argument.  The main point of contention for me is the shift away from mall shopping and how the value of a mall based piece of property can be used if not for another mall based business.  It’s not like they can sell off the properties and build luxury condos on the footprint of an anchor tenant.


The other area of interest for me is the metals.  Gold is down 6.2% from its recent highs near $1,300/oz. while silver (down 16 days in a row) is down a whopping 13% from its recent highs near $18.75.  Both went solidly through the lower Bollinger Bands (2 standard deviations below historic price movement) and were oversold, but the silver obviously much more.  We have a position in AGQ (3X ETF) but I will be looking for a place to add exposure to this trade with either more HL or the silver ETF SLV or USLV.  We have an order in tonight’s letter for the SLV and you’ll have to watch the texting service to get additional adds…CAM



Where To Invest Now

Investing Trade Alerts Summary

$10,000 Trading Account Trade Table


Sold 10 SPY May 12th 238.50 Calls
       40 Gain
Sold 10 SPY May 12th 239 Calls
 ( 100% up Rule )
     150 Gain
Bought 20 SPY May 12th 239 Calls
Sold 10 SPY May 12th $237 Puts
     200 Gain
Bought 10 SPY May 12th $237 Puts
Sold 5 SPY May 12th $238.50 Puts
     210 Gain
Sold 5 SPY May 12th $238.50 Puts
 ( 100% up rule + Gap )
     135 Gain
Bought 10 SPY May 12th $238.50 Puts
Sold 5 SPY May 12th $239 Puts
         5  Loss
Sold 10 SPY May 10th $238.50 Puts expired worthless
     190 Gain
Sold 5 SPY May 12th  $239 Puts
     165 Gain
Bought 10 SPY May 12th $239 Puts
Sold 6 AKAM June $55 Calls
     210 Loss
Bought 6 AKAM June $ 55 Calls
Bought 2 SJM June $ 170 Calls
Bought 2 SJM June $ 130 Calls
Bought 10 HL June 6th $ 6 Calls


3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date


Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the

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Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:


163% Profits on SPY Calls in 2 Days

20% Profits on AGQ Calls in 15 Days

100% Profits on SPY Calls in 2 Days

8% Loss on SPY Puts in 1 Day

100% Loss On VRX Calls in 30 Days

89% Profits on SPY Calls in 1 Day

15% Loss on SPY Calls in 2 Days

66% Loss on SCO Calls in 7 Days

41% Profits on SPY Puts in 6 Days

125% Profits on OIH Calls in 6 Days

130% Profits on GS Calls in 9 Days

217% Profits on XOM Calls in 9 Days

205% Profits on XOM Calls in 3 Days

105% Profits on XOM Calls in 3 Days

50% Loss on NUGT Calls in 10 Days

50% Loss on SJM Calls in 7 Days

117% Profits on GLD Calls in 3 days

50% Loss on GLD Calls in 20 days

62% Profits on XOM Calls in 20 days

50% Loss on HL Calls in 2 Days

50% Profits on PFE Calls in 2 Days

50% Loss on SPY Puts in 2 Days

50% Loss on TWTR Calls in 8 Days

31% Profits TWTR Calls in 2 Days

316% Profits on MOS Calls in 13 Days

154% Profits on MOS Calls in 11 Days

100% Profits on MOS Calls in 8 Days


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