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I’m not launching a diatribe about Washington, but they’re clearly destroying the liquidity by eliminating any chance of putting on trades that make sense, but get blown up by an overnight Tweet that reverses direction for no real reason.  I’m not trying to excuse my recent poor performance, but come on, no one wants to hold positions overnight let alone over a weekend.  I know that the long-term investor isn’t really worried about a 5 or 10% drawdown in their 401K, but they are not the day to day traders that provide the liquidity.


Frankly, I’ve been involved in the market for just short of 50 years, up, down, sideways and it didn’t make much of a difference to performance, although in 1970 to 1980, an annual return of 15% was a solid performance and Ira Cobleigh wrote a book that was entitled “Happiness is a Stock that Doubles in a Year.”  So much for the “OLD” days!


Expectations are rapidly being inflated beyond reasonable bounds by the last several market cycles.  Companies have warned, lowered projections, and still continue to miss their numbers, especially on the revenue side.  This is why we see the degree of punishment being meted out for the misses.  A move of 10% or 20% is not an unusual decline for those who miss or give poor guidance.


Transports did not make a new high on this recent run, and it has led on the downside.  Since it is generally thought of as a barometer for the overall economy, the current decline from recent highs is 12.64%.  If you go back to the actual high, you get a decline of 16.2%.  If the effect of the Mexican tariffs the transports will have a serious problem.  Already the truckers, JBHT being one of the biggest, has fallen from just over $132 a year ago to close this week $85.14, a 35% decline.  The airlines aren’t any great performer with AAL down 53.9%, UAL down 20.4% and DAL, the best performer down “just” 17%.  Even LUV, which services so many short trip routes is lower by 29.8%.

If we add the rails now things get pretty dicey.


This week was a loss of $312 bringing YTD gains to an anemic $2081.  This is the worst performance in the last 6 years.  The main loss this week was DDS 6/60 calls.  What the worst part of the loss was that after we bought those calls, the stock continued higher.  However, our Tweeter-in-chief announced the Mexican tariffs and we gapped lower causing the 50% Down Trigger to close the position.  Naturally, the stock came back and calls we sold between $ .40 and $ .45 finished the day

$ .75 bid – $ .90 asked and the stock was $2.70 off the morning low and up on the day in a -354 market.


All I can do now is to continue the methods and risk assessments that have proven to work for the past decade.  Keep the faith, our performance will improve.  CAM


Options Intelligence Review

Investing Trade Alerts Summary

$10,000 Trading Account Trade Table


05/23 Sold 6 MRO June 16 Calls   0.21         126        174  Loss
05/17 Bought 6 MRO June 16 Calls   0.50   300    
05/10 Bought 2 CVS June 57.50 Calls   1.14   228    
05/09 Bought 4 CVS June 57.50 Calls   1.30   520    

3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date


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See where we are invested and our performance for the week. This includes trading tables and positions showing profits and losses for the week.

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