Special Note: We have been asked to help those who do not wish to make a $100,000 commitment to an account to scale back the initial investment to a $10,000 account.
We are answering this request with an account that will only trade options. However, in order to take full advantage to this new account, you really need to also subscribe to our Texting service. There is no cost involved, but in order to receive all of the trading suggestions, in a high volatility environment, we need to communicate more often than weekly.
To subscribe, simply TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302
and you will automatically be included.
$10,000 OPTIONS ONLY ACCT:
New Trades for this week:
( 1 ) Buy 2 AAPL Nov 400 Calls @ 6.05
( 2 ) Buy 20 TBT November 23 Calls @ Mkt
The $10,000 Options Only account gained $2,011 last week, its twenty first week of trading.
We came into the week with a balance of $10,638 and with the profits last week increased the gains to $12,649.00.
Two positions remain: the TZA November 40 Calls and the Yahoo Nov 17 Calls.
The Open positions are highlighted in the options table below.
Approximately $ 1760 funds are in use. When the new positions are filled another $ 1600 will be employed for a total of $ 3360.
The market is continuing to “Climb a wall of worry,” but I’m at a loss for it to ignore the situation in Europe. We can’t get the Super-committee of 6 to agree and they are working with 17…The result of the Sunday meeting is already been discounted until Wednesday and I’m not sure we’ll see anything positive from that. In the meantime we have broken out of the S. & P. range to the upside, but it’s still hard for me to be outright bullish. We will go slow until we see if we’re heading back to test the lows. CAM
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXT MESSAGE TRADE ALERTS SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302 To Get In Now
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in the October 17, October 10, October 3, September 26, September 19 and September 12 issues.
|
DATE |
TRADE |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
|
10/21 |
Bought 2 TZA November 40 Calls |
4.00 |
800 |
||
|
10/21 |
Sold 2 Netflix ( NFLX ) November 125 Calls |
6.95 |
1390 |
270 Gain |
|
|
10/21 |
Sold 6 JPM November 32 Calls |
2.88 |
1728 |
816 Gain |
|
|
10/21 |
Sold 1 APA November 90 Call |
6.55 |
655 |
385 Gain |
|
|
10/20 |
Bought 2 Netflix NFLX Nov 125 Calls |
5.60 |
1120 |
||
|
10/20 |
Bought 12 Yahoo Nov 17 Calls |
0.80 |
960 |
||
|
10/20 |
Sold 2 APA November 90 Calls ( 100% rule ) |
5.40 |
1080 |
540 Gain |
|
|
10/18 |
Bought 6 JPM November 32 Calls |
1.52 |
912 |
||
|
10/14 |
Sold 5 October 40 TZA Calls |
1.35 |
675 |
185 Loss |
|
|
10/14 |
Bought 5 October 40 TZA Calls |
1.72 |
860 |
||
|
10/13 |
Bought 3 APA November 90 Calls |
2.70 |
810 |
||
|
10/13 |
Sold 4 TZA October 39 Calls |
2.55 |
1020 |
132 Loss |
|
|
10/13 |
Bought 4 TZA October 39 Calls |
2.88 |
1152 |
||
|
10/10 |
Bought 2 RL October 140 Puts |
2.90 |
580 |
New trades $ 10,000 account…In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 9 is September;10 October; 11 November;12 December:
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. For any questions please call 702 650 3000
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are taken from Barron’s and may be incorrect)
|
Dow 11,808.79 +164.30 +1.41% |
Nasdaq 2637.46 -30.39 -1.14% |
S&P 500 1238.25 +13.67 +1.12% |
Transportation 4813.83 +122.37 +2.61% |
Russell 2000 712.42 -0.04 -0.01% |
Nasdaq 100 2335.93 -36.01 -1.52% |
|
Gold 1635.10 -46.70 -2.8% |
Silver 3119.3 -98.0 -3.0% |
Crude 87.40 +0.60 +0.7% |
Heating Oil 301.59 -3.07 -1.0% |
Unleaded Gas 2.6582 -0.1113 -3.9% |
Natural Gas 3.629 -0.074 -2.0% |
|
VIX 31.32 +3.08 +10.9% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 126/100’s -46/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios |
CBOE Equity
64/100
-2/100’s
Bonds
138-16+03
3.26% +0.03%
10 Yr Note
128-21+17 2.21%-0.04%
Copper
322.30
-18.55
-5.4%
CRB Inflation
Index
311.08
-6.10
-1.9%
Barron’s Confidence
72.1%
+1.4%
S&P100
558.47
+3.87
+0.70%
5 Yr Note
122-072+10
1.06%-0.05%
Dollar
76.28
-0.34
-0.4%
DJ Utilities
452.66
+13.90
+3.17%
AAII
Confidence
Index
Bullish
36.0
-3.8%
Bearish
34.6
-1.8%
Neutral
29.4%
+5.6 %
M1 Money Supply
+21.4%Oct 10th
M-2 Money.
Supply
+9.8%Oct 10th
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly And Yahoo Finance
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
( 1 ) Buy 5000 FTWR @ 0.96 stop at 0.48
( 2 ) Buy 600 BBVA @ 8.50 stop @ 5.50
( 3 ) Buy 500 CONN @ 8.50 stop @ 7.49
Text UPDATES to 69302 and then appear in the table.
Last week we bought
(A full position is $5,000)
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
Stock |
Purchase P,rice |
Purchase Date |
Stop/Loss |
Price/Date Sold |
Profit/(Loss) |
||
| COF- short 500 shares |
41.80 |
10/17/11 |
Covered 40.42 10/20 |
$ 690 |
|||
| LCC 400 |
6.03 |
10/17/11 |
5.51x |
||||
| SDS 100 |
25.55 |
10/5/11 |
|||||
| CERS 2200 |
2.15 |
9/28/11 |
1.97 sco |
||||
| SONO |
28.89 |
9/12/11 |
26.99x |
33.04 sold 10/19 |
$ 830 |
||
| XBOR* |
1.40 |
8/12/11 |
0.70sco |
||||
| LEI* |
2.06 |
8/10/11 |
1.03x |
||||
| KAJMY |
30.45 |
3/21/11 |
29.60 sco |
||||
| LEOM* |
0.30 |
12/17/10 |
0.07sco |
||||
Previous closed out positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6th, August 15th, August 8th, August 1st and July 18th letters.
Model Portfolio Comments/Changes:
INDEX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS
( 1 ) BUY 15 SPY NOV 123 PUT @ 1.65 ( CLOSED AT 3.30 ITS AWAY FROM MKT)
( 2 ) BUY 15 QQQ NOV 56 CALLS @ 1.65
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG and SDS, whichgo up when the DOW and S&P 500 go down and down when they go up.
New Stock Option Recommendations
( 1 ) BUY 10 FCX NOV 34.50 CALLS @ 2.50
( 2 ) BUY 10 DD JAN 45 CALLS @ 2.50
Option and overall Comments
We had a gain last week of $ 9,104 in a trending, not so volatile week. Our gains for the year increased to $ 76,879. We have two long options positions remaining, the TZA and YHOO Calls and six long stock positions: The stock table includes: CERS, LEI, KAJMY, LEOM, SDS, and XBOR. We shorted 500 shares of COF but covered prior to their earnings report on Thursday as in the above stock table. The TZA is a triple inverse small cap ETF.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on an hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $2,500. 00 in the options positions and $ 30,000 in the six long stock positions for a total of 32,500.00 with
67,500.00 in cash. This is our 39th letter for 2011. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
If all the new positions of suggested stocks and options are executed another $ 30,000.00 would be in use.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes result in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…
Previous Week’s Recommendations and Rules for the $ 100,000 account Text UPDATES to 69302.
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
- When the option has doubled sell half the position.
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
at the close the previous Friday or at the open on Monday.
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols have changed. We will now use a new terminology. ( stock symbol with expiration month and strike price )
- Subscribers can follow us on Twitter or call 702 650 3000 for up to date information.
|
Option |
COST |
Date |
Sold |
Date |
Profit/(Loss) |
|
| TZA Nov 40 |
5 LotsCalls 4.00 10/21/11 YHOO Nov17
30 LotsCalls 0.80 10/20/11 NFLXNov125
4 LotsCalls 5.60 10/20/11 6.95 10/21/11 $ 540SSO Nov 44
10 LotsCalls 2.50 10/18/11 3.30 10/21/11 $ 800QQQ Nov 58
17 LotsCalls 1.40 10/18/11 1.47 10/21/11 $ 119JPM Nov 32
15 LotsCalls 1.52 10/18/11 2.88 10/21/11 $ 2040CVX Nov100
8 LotsCalls 2.80 10/17/11 5.45 10/18/11 $ 2120APA Nov 90
6 Lots
Calls 2.70 10/13/11
10/21/11 5.40 sold half on double
6.55 sold half next day
10/20/11
10/21/11 $ 810
$ 1155CSCO Jan 20 2012 Put short; longJan20;2013 CallPut/Call Spread 0.07 2/14/11
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6, August 22, August 8, August 1, July 18, July 11, July 5, June 20, May 16, April 25, April 11, March 21, March 14, March 7, February 21, 2011 February 7, 2011 January 24, 2011, December 20,2010, November 22, 2010, October 11, 2010, September 13, 2010, July 26, 2010, June 14, 2010, May 10, 2010, January 25, 2010, November 23, October 23, August 24, July 20, 2009 newsletters.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
| Monday | European Summit over the past week-end on the bail-out money and its effect on the dollar will set an early tone for the week’s markets. |
Tuesday09:00 hrs Case Shiller 20 city index August ( -3.5% vs -4.1% )
10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence Oct ( 46.0 vs 45.4 )
10:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index Aug ( NA vs 0.8% )
Wednesday07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 10/15 ( NA vs + 14.9% )
08:30 hrs Durable Goods Orders Sept ( -1.0% vs – 0.1% )
Durable Goods Ex Transportation ( 0.4% vs 0.0% )
10:00 hrs New Home Sales Sept ( 300K vs 295K )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 10/22 ( NA vs -4.729 mln bbls )Thursday08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims 10/22 ( 403 vs same )
Continuing Claims ( 3700K vs 3719K )
08:30 hrs GDP 3rd Qtr ( 2.2% vs 1.3% )
Implicit Price Deflator ( 2.5% vs Same )
10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales August ( -1.0% vs -1.2% ) Friday
08:30 hrs Personal Income Sept ( 0.3% vs -0.1% )
Personal Spending ( 0.6% vs 0.2% )
PCE Prices 0.1% vs 0.1% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Oct Final ( 57.5 vs 57.5 )
Economic Data
This week we have GDP and the expectations of a + 2.2 vs 1.3% last ( 2nd ) quarter are upbeat as fears of a recession are slowly receding. The Phily Fed at +8.7 was a striking surprise and a blow to the bears who remember the August -31 number. Earnings continue great. Industrial giants who look great on the charts like W.W. Grainger ( GWW: 167.64 ) , CSX ( CSX: 21.86 ), Union Pacific ( UNP: 96.96 ) and Honeywell ( HON:51.38 ) all made positive forward looking comments about the economy.
Fundamentals ( previous letters may be seen at www.princetonresearch.com
The lack of bad news from Europe drove headlines even though a definitive plan had not been seen, policymakers have been given the benefit of the doubt that something positive is on the horizon.
For the third consecutive week, the major averages rose sharply. Transportation led all indexes up 2.61%. The Dow gained 1.41%; the S&P 1.12 %. The Russell was flat and Tech stocks, influencing the Nasdaq, were off 1.14%. Both Apple ( AAPL: 392.87 ) and IBM ( IBM: 181.63 ) were deleterious.
Eight of the ten Dow Industrial Groups were higher led by Financials, up 3.66%. Oil and Gas gained 2.91% and Utilities 2.70%. Consumer Services added 1.39% and Industrials 1.07%. Consumer Goods added 1.05%; Health Care 0.54%; Telecomm 0.36%. The losers were tech and materials. Technology lost the most, off 2.27% followed by Basic Materials, down 0.66%.
There are hundreds of earnings reports due next week including my favorite, Caterpillar ( CAT: 87.39 ), U.S. Steel ( X: 23.37 ), Parker Hannifin ( PH: 77.85 ) representing industrials and Financial Services like Visa ( V: 93.43 ) and Aflac
( AFL: 42.72 ) that the bears will need to contend with.
Technical Information
Support Levels: S&P 500 1232;1203 Resistance S&P 500 1253; 1268
DOW 11,640;11,530 Resistance DOW 11,920;12,030
QQQ 5640;5553 Resistance QQQ 5792;5880
Nasdaq 2612;2552 Resistance Nasdaq 2672;2716
CYCLES
Short term cycles this week suggest weakness early in the week followed by a strong finish correlating with a nice improvement from both GDP and psychology.
Rule 17B requires disclosure of payment for investor relations*
Princeton Research has received about $ 2,500 per month from Lucas ( LEI ) marked with an asterisk. Princeton has been paid for investor relations in the past and has negotiated a contract to be paid 100,000 restricted shares from Leo Motors. Princeton is paid by Baron Energy ( BROE ) to do investor relations in the amount of 300,000 shares. Princeton has also bought separate shares about 327,600 and owns the shares for its own account. On WKBT, we don’t work for them but have bought a few thousand shares for our own account. USPR paid us 200,000 restricted shares. Cross Border paid us 25,000 restricted shares and we bought and own another 25,000 purchased at higher prices.
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