November 07, 2011, Market Strategies Guide to Successful Trading

Special Note:
Charles Moskowitz was asked to appear for an interview at StockLegends.com.
The Show will air on Monday November 7th at 10:00 AM at http://www.stocklegends.com ,
we urge everyone to listen to the interview.

We have been asked to help those who do not wish to make a $100,000 commitment to an account to scale back the initial investment to a $10,000 account.

We are answering this request with an account that will only trade options. However, in order to take full advantage to this new account, you really need to also subscribe to our Texting service. There is no cost involved, but in order to receive all of the trading suggestions, in a high volatility environment, we need to communicate more often than weekly.

To subscribe, simply TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302

and you will automatically be included.

$10,000 OPTIONS ONLY ACCT:

New Trades for this week:

1. Buy 5 TLT November 117 Calls @ 1.75 OB

2. Buy 10 BAC December 6 Calls @ .75 OB

3. Buy 4 GRA December 40 calls @ 2.75 OB

 

The $10,000 Options Only account lost $ 370 last week, its twenty third week of trading.

We came into the week with a balance of $12,129.00 and with the loss last week decreased the gains to $11,759.00.

 

Three positions remain: the JAZZ Nov 36 Puts, JEF Dec 12 Calls and TZA Nov 32 Calls. The Open positions are highlighted in the options table below.

 

 

 

Approximately $ 2362 funds are in use. This week’s market was again dominated by Euro-issues. Greece is still nowhere on the bailout. Now Italy and Spain have joined the ranks of deeply troubled sovereigns. We came into the week generally short and covered those profitable positions on Monday, taking some losses on the 2 longs and then getting long again on Wednesday. This level of volatility has kept the size of our positions smaller than usual, as we would really rather see some “trending” instead of one day up and the next down 1 or 2%. The S & P is clearly trying to hold the 1220 level, but we will have to wait and see. The “good” (?) unemployment numbers produced nothing for the markets except a meaningless inside day. While we maintain a balanced approach to positions, we come into the week slightly short…CAM

 

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

TEXT MESSAGE TRADE ALERTS SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302 To Get In Now

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in the October 31, October 24, October 17, October 10, October 3 and September 26 issues.

 

DATE

TRADE

PRICE

COST

PROCEEDS

RESULTS

11/4

Bought 4 TZA November 32 Calls

1.93

772

11/3

Bought 4 JEF December 12 Calls

1.80

720

11/2

Bought 6 JAZZ November 36 Puts

1.45

870

11/2

Sold 10 IBM November 190 Calls

1.33

1330

400 Gain

11/1

Bought 10 IBM November 190 Calls

.93

930

11/1

Sold 5 LULU November 60 Calls ( 50% Rule)

.90

450

455 Loss

11/1

Sold 5 UA November 87.50 Calls

1.60

800

365 Loss

11/1

Sold 3 IBM November 180 Puts

3.60

1080

480 Gain

10/31

Sold 5 XLE November 70 Puts

1.90

950

270 Gain

10/31

Sold 10 TBT 11/23 Calls (50% rule)

.21

210

220 Loss

10/31

Sold 12 YHOO November 17 Calls ( 50% rule)

.40

480

480 Loss

10/28

Bought 5 LULU November 60 Calls

1.81

905

10/28

Bought 5 UA November 87.50 Calls

2.33

1165

10/27

Bought 3 November IBM 180 Puts

2.00

600

10/27

Bought 5 XLE November 70 Puts

1.36

680

10/27

Sold 10 TBT November 23 Calls ( 100% rule )

.86

860

430 Gain

10/26

Sold 10 ZSL November 15 Calls (50 % rule)

.50

500

550 Loss

10/25

Bought 10 ZSL November 15 Calls

1.05

1050

10/24

Bought 20 TBT November 23 Calls

.43

860

10/24

Sold 2 TZA November 40 Calls

2.00

400

400 Loss

10/21

Bought 2 TZA November 40 Calls

4.00

800

10/21

Sold 2 Netflix ( NFLX ) November 125 Calls

6.95

1390

270 Gain

10/21

Sold 6 JPM November 32 Calls

2.88

1728

816 Gain

10/21

Sold 1 APA November 90 Call

6.55

655

385 Gain

10/20

Bought 2 Netflix NFLX Nov 125 Calls

5.60

1120

10/20

Bought 12 Yahoo Nov 17 Calls

0.80

960

10/20

Sold 2 APA November 90 Calls ( 100% rule )

5.40

1080

540 Gain

10/18

Bought 6 JPM November 32 Calls

1.52

912

10/14

Sold 5 October 40 TZA Calls

1.35

675

185 Loss

10/14

Bought 5 October 40 TZA Calls

1.72

860

10/13

Bought 3 APA November 90 Calls

2.70

810

10/13

Sold 4 TZA October 39 Calls

2.55

1020

132 Loss

10/13

Bought 4 TZA October 39 Calls

2.88

1152

10/10

Bought 2 RL October 140 Puts

2.90

580

 

New trades $ 10,000 account…In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 11 November; 12 December; 1 January:

The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. For any questions please call 702 650 3000

 

MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are taken from Barron’s and may be incorrect)

 

Dow

11,983.24

-247.87

-2.028%

Nasdaq

2686.15

-51.00

-1.86%

S&P 500

1252.230

-31.86

-2.79%

Transportation

4912.17

-99.81

-1.99%

Russell 2000

746.49

-14.11

-1.85%

Nasdaq 100

2356.32

-44.97

-1.87%

Gold

1756.10

+9.90

+0.6%

Silver

3408.4

-120.4

-3.4%

Crude

94.26

+.94

+1%

Heating Oil

307.07

+.43

+0.1%

Unleaded Gas

2.6634

+0.0173

+0.65%

Natural Gas

3.783
-0.140 -3.7%

VIX

30.16

+-5.63

+22.9%

Put/Call Ratios

S&P 100

202/100’s

+32/100’s

Put/Call Ratios

CBOE Equity

76/100

+17/100’s

Bonds

141-00 +4-4

3.09% -0.28%

10 Yr Note

130-16 +2-13 2.03% -0.29%

Copper

356.45

-14.15

-3.8%

CRB Inflation

Index

320.44

-2.63

-0.81%

Barron’s Confidence

71.%

-0.2%

S&P100

561.97

-15.31

-2.65%

5 Yr Note

123-04 +1-2

.88% -0.25%

Dollar

76.91

+1.82

+2.42%

DJ Utilities

451.17

-2.52

-0.56%

AAII

Confidence

Index

Bullish

40.2

-2.8%

Bearish

29.6

+4.6%

Neutral

30.2%

-1.8 %

M1 Money Supply

+16.2%Oct 24th

M-2 Money.

Supply

+9.6%Oct 24th

 

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly And Yahoo Finance

 

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits

M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

New Stock Recommendations

  1. BUY 1300 FCH @ MKT. USE 2.79 STP
  2. BUY 1200 CDTI @ 3.30 USE 2.75 STP CLOSE ONLY
  3. BUY 500 JVA @ MKT. USE 9.49 STP

Last week we bought

(A full position is $5,000)

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Stock

Purchase Price

Purchase Date

Stop/Loss

Price/Date Sold

Profit/(Loss)

CONN 500

8.50

10/25/11

7.49X

BBVA 600

8.79

10/25/11

5.50X

FTWR 5000

.96

10/24/11

.48x

COF- short 500 shares

41.80

10/17/11

Covered 40.42 10/20

$ 690

LCC 400

6.03

10/17/11

5.51x

5.51 11/1 Stopped

($280)

SDS 100

25.55

10/5/11

CERS 2200

2.15

9/28/11

1.97 sco

2.73 sold 10/25

$1276

SONO

28.89

9/12/11

26.99x

33.04 sold 10/19

$ 830

XBOR*

1.40

8/12/11

0.70sco

LEI*

2.06

8/10/11

1.03x

KAJMY

30.45

3/21/11

29.60 sco

LEOM*

0.30

12/17/10

0.07sco

 

Previous closed out positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6th, August 15th, August 8th, August 1st and July 18th letters.

Model Portfolio Comments/Changes:

 

INDEX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS


1. Buy 15 QQQ December 55 Calls @ 1.65
2. Buy 10 SPY December 123 Calls @ 2.35
3. Buy 20 SDS December 19 Calls @ 1.05

 

For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG and SDS, whichgo up when the DOW and S&P 500 go down and down when they go up.

 

New Stock Option Recommendations

1. Buy 20 ORCL December 32 Calls @ 1.25

2. Buy 14 DD January 49 Calls @ 1.75

3. Buy 9 CVX December 105 Calls @ 2.75

4. Buy 10 TLT November 117 Calls @ 1.75 OB

5. Buy 25 BAC December 6 Calls @ .75 OB

6. Buy 8 GRA December 40 calls @ 2.75 OB


Option and overall Comments

 

We had a gain last week of $ 1243 in a volatile, down week. Our gains for the year increased to
$ 78,198. We have Three long options positions remaining, the JAZZ Calls, JEF Calls, TZA Calls.
TZA is a triple inverse Small Cap ETF. The stock table includes eight long stock positions: CONN, BBVA, FTWR, LEI, KAJMY, LEOM, SDS and XBOR. The SDS is a double inverse SP500 ETF.

 

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.

 

We are basing money management on an hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $7,500 in the options positions and $ 37,500 in the eight long stock positions for a total of $ 45,000 with

$55,000 in cash. This is our 41st letter for 2011. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

If the suggested stocks and options are executed another $ 35,000 would be in use.

 

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the $100,000 Account

 

Get Free Text Message Trade Alerts — Text UPDATES to 69302

 

  • All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
  • When the option has doubled sell half the position.
  • Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
  • The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

at the close the previous Friday or at the open on Monday.

  • The options will be followed until closed out.
  • Option Symbols have changed. We will now use a new terminology. ( stock symbol with expiration month and strike price )
  • Subscribers can follow us on Twitter or call 702 650 3000 for up to date information.

Option

COST

Date

Sold

Date

Profit/(Loss)

TZA Nov 32

8 lots Calls 1.93

11/04/11

     JEF Dec 12
10 lots
Calls 1.80

11/03/11

    JAZZ Nov 36
12 lots
Puts 1.45

11/02/11

    IBM Nov 190
25 lots
Calls .93

11/01/11

1.33

 11/02/11 $ 1000QCOM Nov 52.50 10 LotsCalls 2.47

10/28/11

1.20 (50 %rule)

 11/01/11 ($ 1270 )LULU Nov 60
15 Lots
Calls 1.81

10/28/11

.90 (50 % rule)

 11/01/11 ($ 1365 )UA Nov 87.50
10 Lots
Calls 2.33

10/28/11

1.60

 11/01/11 ( $ 730 )IBM Nov180

 

5 Lots Puts 2.00

 

10/27/11

3.60

 11/01/11 $ 800XLE Nov 70

 

10 Lots Puts 1.36

 

10/27/11

1.90

 10/31/11 $ 540SPY Nov 123
15 Lots
Puts 1.26

 

 

10/27/11

4.03 1/2 double
4.07 1/2
 11/01 /11 $ 4228ZSL Nov 15 20 Lots Calls 1.05

10/25/11

.50

 10/26/11 ($ 1100 )TBT Nov 23
40 Lots
Calls .45

10/24/11

.90 sold half on double
.21 sold half on 50% loss rule

 10/27/11
10/31/11
$ 900
($ 480 )
TZA Nov 40

 

5 LotsCalls 4.00 10/21/11

2.00

 10/24/11 ($ 1000 )YHOO Nov17

 

30 LotsCalls 0.80 10/20/11 .40 (50 % rule)  10/31/11 ( $ 1200 )NFLXNov125

4 LotsCalls 5.60 10/20/11 6.95 10/21/11 $ 540SSO Nov 44

10 LotsCalls 2.50 10/18/11 3.30 10/21/11 $ 800QQQ Nov 58

17 LotsCalls 1.40 10/18/11 1.47 10/21/11 $ 119JPM Nov 32

15 LotsCalls 1.52 10/18/11 2.88 10/21/11 $ 2040CVX Nov100

8 LotsCalls 2.80 10/17/11 5.45 10/18/11 $ 2120APA Nov 90

6 Lots

Calls 2.70 10/13/11

 

10/21/11 5.40 sold half on double

6.55 sold half next day

 10/20/11

 

10/21/11 $ 810

 

$ 1155CSCO Jan 20 2012 Put short; longJan20;2013 CallPut/Call Spread 0.07 2/14/11

 

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6, August 22, August 8, August 1, July 18, July 11, July 5, June 20, May 16, April 25, April 11, March 21, March 14, March 7, February 21, 2011 February 7, 2011 January 24, 2011, December 20,2010, November 22, 2010, October 11, 2010, September 13, 2010, July 26, 2010, June 14, 2010, May 10, 2010, January 25, 2010, November 23, October 23, August 24, July 20, 2009 newsletters.

 

This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data

 

Monday 15:00 hrs Consumer Credit – Sept( 5bil vs -9.5bil )

Tuesday Wednesday07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 11/05 ( NA vs + .2% )

10:00 hrs Whole Inventories-Sept ( .9% vs .4% )Thursday08:30 hrs Initial Unemployment Claims 11/05 ( 400 vs 397 )

08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 10/29 ( 3700K vs 3684K )

08:30 hrs Export Prices (ex– ag) – Oct (NA% vs .3%)

08:30 hrs Import Prices (ex-oil) – Oct (NA vs .2%)

08:30 hrs Trade Balance – Sept(-46bil vs -45.6bil) Friday

09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment- Nov (60 vs 60.9)

 

Economic Data

 

Economic data is scarce this week, the most important being Balance of trade on Thursday and sentiment readings on Friday. Fears of a recession are gone, last weekend bulls went home looking ahead to data releases and came in Monday to a repeat of the Euro-Zone fears. October’s ISM data was weaker than expected but shows expansion unemployment was no surprise. Earnings are supportive.

Fundamentals ( previous letters may be seen at www.princetonresearch.com)


Consumer demand into the holiday season comes into focus now . Consumer credit data on Monday is expected to provide some clarity along with company comments. Progress of the congressional super-committee for deficit reduction will provide ample chatter as deadlines are approaching. After last week’s euro-zone debt deal debacle investors will assess communiques from G-20(or lack thereof) and European headlines.

 

Technical Information

 

Support Levels: S&P 500 1238;1203 Resistance S&P 500 1274; 1304

DOW 11,920;11,680 Resistance DOW 12,030;12,320

QQQ 5729; 5640 Resistance QQQ 5855;5957

Nasdaq 2663;2612 Resistance Nasdaq 2724;2775


CYCLES

 

Short term cycles this week suggest a sideways to weak market early in the week, and strength later in the week. Historically Early November price levels are maintained or exceeded at the end of November.

 

Rule 17B requires disclosure of payment for investor relations*

 

Princeton Research has received about $ 2,500 per month from Lucas ( LEI ) marked with an asterisk. Princeton has been paid for investor relations in the past and has negotiated a contract to be paid 100,000 restricted shares from Leo Motors. Princeton is paid by Baron Energy ( BROE ) to do investor relations in the amount of 300,000 shares. Princeton has also bought separate shares about 327,600 and owns the shares for its own account. USPR paid us 200,000 restricted shares. Cross Border paid us 25,000 restricted shares and we bought and own another 25,000 purchased at higher prices.

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