Investing Strategies To
Make Money In
Up Or Down Markets
Where To Invest Your Money August 2014
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July 28, 2014
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Where To Invest $10000
Covering High Return Balanced Stock Market
Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
Over 284% Gains In 2013
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
http://youtu.be/ofLrj7X86Aw
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In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479
Over 284% Returns
A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479
The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.
284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013
171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012
77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)
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What Should I Invest In
How To Invest 10000
Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account
Traders Comments
There is 1 open position:
IWM August 112 Puts
Funds in Use $ 744
Gain for the week $ 510
YTD Gain $ 2,925
Over 29%
The majority of the gains came on the put side of the market with trades in IWM and Visa.
Although V came in above the street expectations it gave soft guidance for the rest of the year.
The cause was the declining value of “cross-border” transactions. In other words, Europe is not as good as everyone thinks. One look at the DAX confirms that. And further sanctions against Russia will only escalate the problems over there.
While I continue to like the market technically, I am always trying to keep the fundamentals in mind. Fridays selloff was not as steep as the one on 7/17, or 7/8, but on a time basis we can certainly have a continuation since all these selloffs have taken 4-6 sessions from the new high to the pullback low. That may give us 3-5 more sideways to lower action, since the last new high was just Thursday. Support for the S&P500 is in the 1965-1955 level.
We went home with only one position, IWM (Russell 2000 Index) 112 puts. This is due to the fact that I will be taking a couple of days off this coming week and I don’t want a full complement of positions. But the news in the Middle East is troubling to me and If I am going to keep anything, it’s going to be defensive. I realize that over the past several weeks I’ve said it’s the unknown issues that will derail the market…clearly we all know about Gaza…but that doesn’t mean that an escalation won’t hurt.
Have a great week.
…CAM
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Investing Strategies
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account
Trade Table
New Trades
1) Buy 4 P August $ 26 Calls @ $ 1.10
2) Buy 10 RIG August $ 44 Calls @ $ 0.38
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 07/25 | Bought 6 IWM August 112 Puts | 1.24 | |||
| 07/25 | Sold 4 IWM August 113 Puts | 1.73 | 692 | 228 Gain | |
| 07/25 | Sold 3 V August 210 Puts( 100% Up Rule + Gap ) | 3.35 | 1005 | 585 Gain | |
| 07/24 | Sold 10 COP August 90 Calls | 0.46 | 460 | 30 Gain | |
| 07/24 | Bought 4 IWM August 113 Puts | 1.16 | 464 | ||
| 07/23 | Sold 3 BA August 130 Calls ( 50% Loss rule ) | 1.11 | 333 | 333 Loss | |
| 07/22 | Bought 3 V August 210 Puts | 1.40 | 420 | ||
| 07/16 | Bought 10 COP August 90 Calls | 0.43 | 430 | ||
| 07/11 | Bought 3 BA August 130 Calls | 2.22 | 666 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
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Good Stocks To Invest In
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
| Dow16,960.57 -139.61-0.82% |
Nasdaq4449.56+17.42 +0.39% |
S&P 5001978.34+0.12+0.01% | Transportation8428.15+42.75+0.51% | Russell 20001144.72 -6.89-0.60% |
Nasdaq 1003965.16+25.27+0.64% |
| Gold (spot)1303.10-6.10-0.5% | Silver (July)2063.625.0-1.2% | Crude102.09-1.04-1.0% | Heating Oil292.35+6.61+2.3% | Unleaded Gas2.8402-0.0202-0.7% | Natural Gas3.781-0.17-4.3% |
| VIX12.69+0.63+5.2% | Put/Call RatiosS&P 100139/100’s+3/100’s | Put/Call RatiosCBOE Equity60/100’s+3/100’s
|
Bonds138-21 +193.24% -0.05% | 10 Yr. Note125-10 +0-022.48% -0.01% | Copper324.05+5.60+1.8% |
| CRB InflationIndex298.34+0.92
+0.3% |
B9arron’s Confidence69.9%-0.9% | S&P100879.88+0.39+0.04% | 5 Yr. Note119-052 -0081.67% +0.01% | Dollar81.03+0.52+0.7% | DJ Utilities556.51-2.62-0.47% |
| AAIIConfidenceIndex | Bullish29.6%-2.8% | Bearish29.9%+1.4% | Neutral40.5%+142% | M1 Money Supply+12.66%July14th | M-2 MoneySupply+6.70%July14th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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New Stock Recommendations $100,000 Portfolio
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | |||
| MBI 500 | 9.54 | 07/14 | 7/25 10.02 | $ 240 | ||||
| BCRH 300 | 19.45 | 07/10 | ||||||
| MVIS 2000 | 2.02 | 06/30 | 1.87sco | 07/15 2.40 | $ 760 | |||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | ||||||
| GLXZ 5000 | 0.46 | 05/12 | ||||||
| XRGYF 5000* | 0.407 | 03/14 | ||||||
| OSIR 300 | 15.94 | 02/13 | ||||||
| GRPN 500 | 10.40 | 01/28 | ||||||
| RPTP 400 | 15.37 | 01/16 | ||||||
| AA 300 100Sold 200 | 10.06 | 01/10 | 6/26 14.87 | $ 854 | ||||
| WLT 300 | 16.22 | 12/23 | ||||||
| GSG 150 | 32.64 | 12/23 | 32.21 sco | |||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | ||||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 12.10 | 5/23 | ||||||
| HL 1000 | 4.10 | 3/04 | 2.64 sco | |||||
| AAPL 35 | 76.85 | 11/08/12 | ||||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
New Trades:
1) Buy 8 August P ( Pandora ) $ 26 Calls @ $ 1.10
2) Buy 20 August RIG $ 44 Calls @ $ 0.38
( All Trades are limit orders )
There was one closed out stock position last week
the MBI making a net gain of $ 240
We also added $ 688 in the options account
for a total gain of $ 1,260 for the week.
The year to-date realized gain rose to $ 15,866.
For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.
We have open position losses now of about $9,460 some of which are in coal stocks, NBG and small cap bio-med stocks held over from last year.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American (NAT), BCRH and JP Morgan.
We have one long option position:
IWM August 112 Puts
The Stock table has the following 17 positions:
AA, AAPL,BCRH, GRPN, GLXZ; GSG, HL,
NBG (3), OSIR, REPR, RPTP, TEXQY, WFM, WLT, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using
$ 1,488 in one options position and
$ 57,475 in 17 stock positions totaling
$ 58,963 with
$ 41,037 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from ouractual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
| IWM Aug 11312 lots | Puts1.24 | 07/25 14 | |||
| IWM Aug 1138 lots | Puts1.16 | 07/24/14 | 1.73 | 07/25/14 | $ 456.00 |
| V August 2106 lots | Puts1.40 | 07/22/14 | 3.35( 100% profit Rule plus upside Gap ) | 07/25/14 | $ 1170.00 |
| COP August 9020 lots | Calls0.43 | 07/16/14 | 0.46 | 07/24/14 | $ 60.00 |
| BA Aug 1306 lots | Calls2.22 | 07/11/14 | 1.11( 50% Loss Rule ) | 07/23/14 | ( $ 666.00 ) |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
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This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
| Monday | Cal-Maine FoodsCALM ( 1.20 vs 0.55 ) Cummins CMI ( 2.39 vs 2.20 ) Tenneco ( 1.28 vs 1.10 )
Tyson Foods TSN ( 0.78 vs 0.69 )
10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales June ( -0.8% vs 6.1% )
James River Coal’s Mining operations could be auctioned
Crane CR ( 1.16 vs 1.06 ) Jacobs Eng JEC ( 0.87 vs 0.83 )
|
| Tuesday | Banco Santander SAN ( 0.12 vs 0.10 ) Archer Daniels ADM ( 0.75 vs 0.46 ) Corning GLW ( 0.38 vs 0.32 ) Diana Shipping DSX ( -0.08 vs -0.06 )
Illinois Tool ITW ( 1.20 vs 1.08 ) Level 3 LVLT ( 0.31 vs -0.11 ) Merck ( 0.81 vs 0.84 ) Sirius Radio ( 0.02 vs 0.02 ) Spirit Airlines SAVE ( 0.90 vs 0.63 ) Wynn ( 1.95 vs 1.51 )
09:00 hrs Case Shiller 20 city Index May ( 10.0% vs 10.8% )
10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence July ( 86.6 vs 85.2 )
Amer Express ( AXP: 1.38 vs 1.27 ) Panera PNRA ( 1.75 vs 1.74 ) Ruby Tuesday ( 0.09 vs 0.12 ) Sturm Ruger RGR ( 1.28 vs 1.63 ) Twitter ( -0.01 )
|
| Wednesday | Garmin ( 0.76 vs Same ) Goodyear ( 0.79 vs 0.67 ) Humana ( 2.19 vs 2.63 )Sprint S ( 0.00 vs – 0.53 )
Valero Energy ( VLO: 1.20 vs 0.90 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 07/26 ( NA vs 2.4% )
08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change July ( 215K vs 281K )
08:30 hrs GDP Adv 2nd Qtr ( 3.2% vs -2.9% ) Implicit Price Deflator ( 2.1% vs 1.3% )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 07/26 ( NA vs -3.969 Mln Bbls )
14:00 hrs FOMC rate decision and discussion
Agnico Eagle AEM ( 0.27 vs -0.03 ) Barrick ABX ( 0.16 vs 0.66 )
|
| Thursday | Apache APA ( 1.66 vs 2.01 ) Beazer BZH ( 0.26 vs -0.22 )Bunge ( 1.38 vs 0.74 )Conoco ( COP ( 1.61 vs 1.41 )
Exxon ( 1.86 vs 1.55 ) MA ( 0.77 vs 6.96 )
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts July ( NA vs -20.2% )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 07/26 ( 310K vs 284K )
08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 07/19 ( 2525K vs 2500K )
08:30 hrs Employment Cost Index 2nd Qtr ( 0.4% vs 0.3% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 07/26 ( NA vs 90 bcf )
Linkedln LNKD ( 0.39 vs 0.38 ) Tesla ( 0.04 vs 0.05 ) WPRT (-0.44 vs -0.61 )
|
| Friday | Arcelor Mittal MT ( 0.21 vs -0.44 ) Chevron ( CVX 2.67 vs 2.77 ) Clorox ( 1.35 vs 1.38 ) Genesee Wyoming GWR ( 1.11 vs 1.14 )
PG ( 0.91 vs 0.79 )
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls July ( 220K vs 288K ) Private Payrolls ( 225K vs 262K ) Unemployment Rate ( 6.1% vs 6.1% ) Hourly Earnings ( + 0.2% vs Same ) Ave Workweek July 34.5 vs 34.5 )
08:30 hrs Personal Income June ( +0.4% vs +0.4% ) Personal Spending ( 0.4% vs 0.2% ) CORE PCE Prices ( +0.2% vs Same )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Final for July ( 82.0 vs 81.3 )
10:00 hrs ISM Index ( 55.9 vs 55.3 )
10:00 hrs Construction Spending June ( 0.3% vs 0.1% )
14:00 hrs Auto sales ( NA vs 5.9 Mln Units )
14:00 hrs Truck Sales ( NA vs 7.5 Mln Units )
|
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
Earnings results continue to be outstanding. With half of the S&P 500 earnings having been reported, companies have exceeded earnings expectations 76% of the time. Companies are on track to improve earnings by 6.7%, exceeding expectations which were for just 4.9% growth as of June 30th. However, the quality of earnings is not that great ( look at Boeing for example ) when considering stock buy-backs and all the money in circulation available for both large and mid-cap companies.
Both Visa and Amazon disappointed last Thursday, which helped put the Dow in a tailspin, off 123 points or 0.7% Friday. Amazon lost $ 126 million or $ 0.27 per diluted share in the second quarter compared with just $ 7 million or just $ 0.02 lost same quarter in 2013. Net sales increased 23% to $ 19.34 billion compared with $ 15.70 billion in 2013. Amazon, behind fearless leader and very talented Jeff Bezos, launched several new products: Amazon Zocalo; Amazon Cognito; Amazon Mobile Analytics; Amazon Mobil SDK and of course the Kindle Unlimited, an eBook subscription service.
Make Money in up or down markets
Visa reported net operating revenue for their fiscal third quarter of $ 3.2 billion, an increase of 5%. The strengthening dollar cut earnings by 2%. Revenues increased by $ 1.4 billion or 9% over the same quarter in 2013. The forward look was negative citing increased regulations causing disruption in their transaction processing systems, strong dollar and modest to negative growth expected in the Eurozone with increased competitive pressures. Fortunately, Charles was long Visa Puts last Thursday.
China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.0 from 50.7 an 18 month new high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.3% last week reclaiming its 200-day moving average and helping emerging markets to outperform U.S. counterparts. The MSCI Emerging Markets ( ETF: EEM $ 44.72 ) + 3.5% in July, beating the S&P which is just up 0.085%, and has outperformed the S&P by 10% since mid-March.
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 51.9 from 51.8 ( expecting 51.7 ) while PMI Services jumped to 54.4 from 52.8 ( consensus 52.5 ).
Market Strategies Economic Data
New home sales fell 8.1% in June to 406,000 from a downwardly revised 442,000 (from 504,000) in May. The Briefing.com consensus pegged new home sales at 475,000.Sales were also revised lower for April (408,000 from 425,000) and March (403,000 from 410,000).Median new home prices increased 5.3% y/y in June to $273,500. Just imagine how strong the economy could be if housing kicked in.
The drop in demand was not totally unexpected. Price gains in the new home sector have vastly outpaced price increases for existing homes. That has led to an upward move in the new home price premium and lower affordability conditions.
Inventory levels increased 3.1% in June to 197,000, which represented 5.8 months’ supply. A majority of the increase in inventory levels was the result of builders listing homes that were not yet started. Thus, higher inventories won’t put added pressure on builders to lower prices or to liquidate holdings.
Balanced investing strategies can make money in up or down markets.
Big Picture
Affordability concerns as a result of elevated new home price premiums have led to relatively stronger growth in the existing home sector. Existing home sales increased to 5.04 mln SAAR in June from an upwardly revised 4.91 mln SAAR (from 4.89 mln SAAR) in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 5.00 mln SAAR.
| Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
| Total New Home Sales | 406K | 442K | 408K | 403K | 432K |
| Inventory (months) | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Median Price Y/Y | 5.3% | 7.2% | -2.4% | 9.6% | 1.2% |
While mortgage rates have fallen over the past couple of months, higher home prices remain a hindrance for potential first-time home buyers.
| Category | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR | FEB |
| Existing Home Sales | 5.04M | 4.91M | 4.66M | 4.59M | 4.60M |
| Months Supply | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Median Price Y/Y | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% |
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1955
Resistance S&P 500 1995
Support Levels DOW 16,872
Resistance DOW 17,160
Support Levels QQQ 94.44
Resistance QQQ 97.20
Support Levels NASDAQ 4380
Resistance NASDAQ 4485
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Market Strategies Cycles
Midterm years 2006 and 2010 and post-election years 2009 and 2013 were up huge in comparison with the usual strength in pre-election and election years which were relatively non-existent.
Look for undervalued opportunities while money is abundant like CBLI* Cleveland BioLabs.
( CBLI: $ 0.45 ) is a biotech ready to move.
Results of a critical FDA meeting and an interim look at Phase 1 pharmacodynamic results for a lead oncology drug are set to be revealed in Q3. Long punished by the market for delays in government contracts supporting their Phase 3 radiation countermeasure drug, CBLI’s market cap doesn’t reflect recent FDA momentum or Phase 1 oncology assets.
CBLI has long been known for groundbreaking science. Their phase 3 radiation countermeasure delivers massive increases in survival in pivotal animal studies. The Company’s oncology assets target novel mechanisms and show amazing results in challenging pre-clinical models.
See Money Info Show CBLI Feature and Interview – Click Here
CBLI is a risk diversification play, combining a broad oncology pipeline with an advanced radiation countermeasure asset. .Multiple ongoing Phase 1s in cancer while moving radiation drug through faster commercialization process, .successful in multiple US and foreign government grants and contracts.
The Fed’s zero rate policy and massive QE have trumped historical patterns and made them even more bullish, and until monetary policy returns to a past normal, it is likely to continue. Since 2008, the Fed implemented unprecedented accommodative policies, keeping rates at zero for the past 6 years and pumping cash into the system with several creative bond purchasing (QE) programs. This arguably has helped all peaceful nations, almost everyone including emerging nations to get a grip on their economies. Every peaceful nation either has prosperity, or is about to expand into it.
Now that DJIA has pushed substantially above the high range of that chart (not because of any massive global economic boom or peace, but because of unprecedented easy monetary policy),
There will be plenty of small corrections of 4-5% until QE has been wound down, likely when the economy begins to accelerate late in the fourth quarter of 2014. The weakness we are now witnessing is cyclical and is Overdue, which will reverse as funds flow into more consumers.
The next serious pullback could occur when the Fed announces QE is over, which is expected this coming fall. As you can see in the updated 15-Year Projection below, we only expect a 4-8% retreat over the next few months then a fourth quarter rally to new highs, followed by an early 2015 correction of 7-12%. Then after a late-year rally 2015 will likely end up flat and 2016 to mid-2018 will experience a mild bear market with the new floor near the old 2012 DJIA top of about 13,000. Then the real Super Boom should begin.
Rule 17B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton Research has been paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy.
Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton was paid about 500,000 shares of Leo Motors.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street,
Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Visit: www.PrincetonResearch.com
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