Options Trading Systems
June 04, 2012
Where To Invest Your Money Now
Options Trading Systems
Market Strategies Newsletter
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Success Strategies For
Stocks ■ Bonds ■ Interest Rates ■ Natural
Resources ■ Currencies ■ Venture Capital ■ Gold
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc.
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Bill Chippas, Charles Moskowitz
To subscribe to the Options Only Acct Trades simply
TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302
and you will automatically be included.
To Read This Market Strategies Newsletter In Adobe PDF Version – CLICK HERE – http://www.princetonresearch.com/6-4-2012-Market-Strategies.pdf
OPTIONS TRADING STRATEGIES
$10,000 Portfolio Trading Account
New Trades for this week:
The high volatility necessitates new trades to be sent by Text for this week.
The $10,000 Options Only account had a Loss last week of $552, decreasing our gains
for the year from $3,734 to $3,182.
Two positions remain:
The BAC warrants and FB June 30 Calls.
The Open positions are highlighted in the options table below.
Approximately $ 1125 funds are in use.
This was an equal opportunity week for bad news. Europe looked bad, and at home here we got enough bad news to stop even a freight train of a rally. Luckily, we had none of the news over the long weekend and had a chance to do a little selling on Tuesday morning. PRGO worked well but the FXE trade produced a small loss. We also took 50% rule losses early Friday in JPM and QQQ and added Facebook (FB) 6/30 calls. The only good thing I can say about the markets is that the SPY closed right on its 200 day moving average.
Washington and politics offered no solace and the next area, if we continue lower it looks
to me like 1270 down to 1250, and then 1210 in the S.& P. 500. Several of the BIG stocks, GOOG, CMG, and PCLN all ran into resistance and fell hard. As above, the best I can say about them is that they are very close to support.
Over the weekend, Angela Merkel rejected debt sharing for the region with “under no
circumstances” would she agree….Not the best of news.
Remember, these trades are
based on your participation in the
TEXT MESSAGE TRADE ALERTS
SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
TEXT the word UPDATES to
69302 To Get In Now
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in the March,
February and January weekly newsletters. See past issues at http://www.princetonresearch.com/market-strategies-newsletter/
DATE |
TRADE |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
6/1 |
Sold 10 QQQ June 63 Calls |
.42 |
|
420 |
410 Loss |
6/1 |
Sold 6 JPM June 34 Calls |
.46 |
|
276 |
282 Loss |
6/1 |
Bought 6 FB June 30 Calls |
.70 |
420 |
|
|
5/30 |
Bought 10 QQQ June 63 Calls |
.83 |
830 |
|
|
5/30 |
Sold 5 FXE |
Expired |
|
0 |
275 Loss |
5/30 |
Sold 5 FXE |
.81 |
|
405 |
115 Gain |
5/29 |
Bought 6 JPM June 34 Calls |
.93 |
558 |
|
|
5/29 |
Sold 5 PRGO |
1.55 |
|
775 |
300 Gain |
5/25 |
Bought 5 FXE |
.58 |
290 |
|
|
5/25 |
Bought 5 FXE |
.55 |
275 |
|
|
5/23 |
Bought 1000 BAC.WS.B |
.705 |
705 |
|
|
5/8 |
Bought 5 PRGO |
.95 |
475 |
|
|
New trades $ 10,000 account…In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 6 June, 7 July . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
For any questions please call 702 650 3000
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo
Finance and may be incorrect
Dow 12118.57 -336.26 -2.70% |
Nasdaq 2747.48 -90.05 -3.17% |
S&P 500 1278.04 -39.78 -3.02% |
Transportation 4911.87 -167.97 -3.31% |
Russell 2000 737.42 -28.99 -3.78% |
Nasdaq 100 2458.83 -68.22 -2.70% |
Gold 1622.10 +50.90 +3.24% |
Silver 2851.2 +12.6 +0.44% |
Crude 83.23 -7.63 -8.4% |
Heating Oil 262.79 -20.53 -7.2% |
Unleaded Gas 2.6568 -.1749 -6.2% |
Natural Gas 2.326 -0.301 -11.5% |
VIX 26.66 +4.90 +22.5% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 148/100’s +2/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 76/100’s +10/100’s
|
Bonds 152-03 +4-31 2.54% -0.31% |
10 Yr Note 134-234+1-304 |
Copper 331.35 -13.45 -3.9% |
CRB Inflation Index 268.31 -13.64 -4.84% |
Barron’s Confidence 67.7.% -1.5% |
S&P100 583.83 -15.35 -2.56% |
5 Yr Note 124-127 +0-207
|
Dollar 82.97 +0.45 +0.55% |
DJ 464.31 -3.04 -0.65% |
AAII Confidence Index |
Bullish 28.0 -2.5% |
Bearish 42.0% +3.3% |
Neutral 30.0% -0.9 %
|
M1 Money Supply +15.57%May21st
|
M-2 Money Supply +9.74%May21st
|
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
We have entered new stops this week.
Last week we were stopped on CWTR and with a TEXT alert we bought RCII.
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock |
Purchase |
Purchase |
Stop/Loss |
|
Price/Date |
|
Profit/(Loss) |
RCII 150 |
34 |
5/29/12 |
32.38sco |
|
|
||
BAC.WS.B 5000 |
.705 |
5/23/12 |
|
|
|
||
AGQ 100 |
39.00 |
5/23/12 |
|
|
|
||
MTOR 800 |
5.64 |
5/14/12 |
4.90 stop |
|
|
||
SNSS 2000 |
2.65 |
5/14/12 |
2.40 stop |
|
|
||
AAPL 5 |
578 |
4/20/12 |
516.20stop |
|
|
||
SIRI 2000 |
2.265 |
4/18/12 |
1.78 stop |
|
|
||
AAPL 10 |
612.01 |
4/13/12 |
516.20stop |
|
|
||
CWTR 2500 |
1.16 |
4/2/12 |
.81 sco |
.78 |
( 950 ) |
||
IYT 60 |
92.48 |
3/29/12 |
85.02 stop |
|
|
||
AIVN* 10000 * 5000 |
.25 .225 |
3/12/12 3/12/12 |
.10 sco .10 sco |
|
|
||
XBOR* 2000 |
2.25 |
2/24/12 |
1.50sco |
|
|
||
CISG 600 |
8.50 |
2/10/12 |
5.69 sco |
|
|
||
XBOR*3570 |
1.40 |
8/12/11 |
0.70 sco |
|
|
||
LEI* 2425 |
2.06 |
8/10/11 |
1.03x |
|
|
||
LEOM*16650 |
0.30 |
12/17/10 |
0.03 sco |
|
|
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the May 29 and newsletters dating back to July 20, 2009.
Stay alert on the free texting service for new trades and exits.
Model Portfolio Comments/Changes
As noted on page one (Options Only) this was a week full of bad news. The sell in May and go away trade worked like the last 2 years as the market closed out the month with a loss of all the good work we did in the entire first quarter.
Unfortunately, Europe was only part of the problem. We had bad news at home and in China to boot. The weekend news and political shows gave no hint of anything positive to come from the decidedly “negative” bent of the political ads seen on TV. This does not seem to look like it will change anytime soon and we have the entire summer and fall before the election is settled.
The only good to come out of the bad news is that additional Fed help might be in order.
Gold and Silver (we are long the 3X Silver EFT) look like they have some renewed strength.
We bought FB 6/30 calls on Friday on the pullback from a high
volume reversal day on Thursday. I believe that without the down $275 Dow Jones day that the stock has bottomed and can now recover to the $30-33 range. The action tomorrow should give us some answers….CAM
INDEX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS
New Recommendations for this week will be sent by text message. No additional charge to text updates to 69302
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, SDS and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up.
The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
New Stock Option Recommendation
No new trades
Option and overall Comments
We had a Loss last week of $ 2,494 in a down week. Our gain for the year was $14,709.85 and with last week’s loss has decreased to $12,215.85. We have Three long options positions remaining,
the FB June 30 Calls,
FAZ June 22 Puts,
CSCO Jan 20 Calls.
The Stock table includes Fourteen long stock positions: RCII, AGQ, MTOR, SSNS, SIRI, AAPL (a double), TXGE,
IYT, AIVN, CISG, LEI, LEOM, XBOR (a double) and BAC warrants. The AGQ is a double long silver ETF.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $1,288 in the three options positions and $ 74,725 in the 14 long stock positions for a total of $ 76,013 with $ 23,987 in cash. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the $ 100,000 account
§ TGet Trade Alerts – Text UPDATES to 69302.
§ Alloptions count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
§ When the option has doubled sell half the position.
§ Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
§ The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
§ The options will be followed until closed out.
§ Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
§ Subscribers can follow us on Twitter or call
702 650 3000 for up to date information.
Option |
COST |
Date |
Sold |
|
Date |
Profit/(Loss) |
FB June 30 12 Lots |
Calls .70 |
6/1/12 |
|
|
|
|
QQQ June 63 20 Lots |
Calls .83 |
5/30/12 |
.42 |
|
6/1/12 |
( 820 ) |
JPM June 34 12 Lots |
Calls |
5/29/12 |
.46 |
|
6/1/12 |
( 564 ) |
FXE June wk1 124 5 Lots |
Puts |
5/25/12 |
.81 |
|
5/30/12 |
115 |
FXE June wk1 125 5 Lots |
Calls .55 |
5/25/12 |
expired |
|
5/30/12 |
( 275 ) |
FAZ June 22 2 Lots |
Puts |
5/11/12 |
|
|
|
|
CSCO Jan 20 3 lots |
Calls .80 |
2/14/11 |
|
|
|
|
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the May 29 and newsletters
dating back to July 20, 2009.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday |
Investors will assess domestic and overseas weekend comments. U.K 10:00 hrs Factory Orders Apr ( 0.1% vs -1.9%) |
Tuesday |
10:00 hrs ISM Services May ( Wisconsin recall vote. |
Wednesday |
Portugal Sells debt. ECB meeting; no rate change is expected. 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 06/02 ( NA vs -1.3% ) 08:30 hrs Productivity-Rev. Q1 ( 0.7% vs -0.5%) 08:30 hrs Unit Labor Costs-Rev Q1 ( 2.3% vs -2.0%) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 06/02 ( NA 14:00 hrs Fed’s Beige Book May |
Thursday |
Spain Auctions Bonds. Band of England Meets. 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 06/02 ( 375K vs 383K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 05/26 ( 3250K vs 3242K ) 15:00 hrs Consumer Credit Apr ( $12.7B vs $21.4B) Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee. Retailers report May chain-store sales. |
Friday |
08:30 hrs Trade Balance Apr ( 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories Apr ( 0.5% vs 0.3% ) |
Fundamentals (previous letters may be seen at www.princetonresearch.com
Stocks were decimated last week by the poor economic reports and the euro zone
debt crisis. The Dow became negative on the year losing 336.26 points or 2.70%
falling to 12,118.57. The Russell 2000 fell the most off 28.99 to 737.42 or 3.78%, accelerating below its benchmark 200 day moving average. Gold rallied sharply gaining 50.90 to 1622.10 up 3.24% back to its 50-day m.a., while Crude Oil plummeted to 83.23 off 7.63 or 8.4%.
All Ten Dow Industrial Groups were lower led by OIL and Gas which fell 4.88%. Financials lost 3.87%; Industrials 3.8%; Basic Materials 3.39%; Consumer Services 3.17%; Consumer Goods 2.94%; Health Care 2.74%; Technology 2.71% Telecomm 0.73% and Utilities 0.36%.
The benchmark 10 year Treasury broke below the 1.50% mark to trade as low as 1.43% ending the week at 1.459% the lowest U.S. history.
Economic Data
Nonfarm payrolls rose just 69,000in May well below a consensus which had called for an increase of 150K. April was revised lower to just a 77,000 increase from what had been published as plus115K. March numbers were also reduced from reported increases of 154L down to 143K. Private payrolls were also very weak relative to
expectations increasing at 82K vs 168K expected. Unemployment increased to 8.2% up a notch from 8.1%.
All the other economic reports were negative with the exception of Auto and Truck sales which remains the lone bright spot among economic indicators.
Pending Home Sales for April fell 5.5%, disappointing since an increase of 0.6% had been expected. Consumer Confidence fell 3.8 notches to 64.9 from 68.7 last month and a consensus of 64.9. GDP was lower by a percent to 1.9% from expectations of 2.0%. The Chicago PMI was 52.7 well below a consensus of 57.0. The U.S. ISM report was not bad at 53.5 just a hair below expectations of 54; however, The China ISM was just 50.2. ( anything below 50 indicates a contracting economy ).
The data, which showed U.S. job growth at its weakest in a year, underscored a growing sense that the U.S. economy is not immune to a slowdown in Europe where Spain is struggling to support its banks or to China’s slackening economic demand.
Technical Information
Support Levels: S&P 500 1268; 1238
Resistance S&P 500 1289; 1310
DOW 12,030;
11,920
Resistance DOW 12,360; 12,530
QQQ 6023; 5880 Resistance QQQ
6113; 6190
Nasdaq
2716; 2672 Resistance
Nasdaq 2775; 2829
CYCLES
Cycles suggest a steady to weak tone early in the week then a firmer mid-week and leveling off steady end of week.
Rule 17B requires disclosure of payment for investor relations
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