April 22, 2013
Market Strategies Newsletter
VIP Member Subscribers Edition
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Market Strategies
$10,000 Options Trading Account
There are six open positions:
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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Funds in Use: $ 4,486.00
Options Trading Strategies Comments
We had another positive week
while enduring a very hectic market.
The gain was $1,056
bringing YTD performance to
$15,603 or just over 156%
The biggest down and up market days for the year occurred back to back on Monday and Tuesday.
We used the weakness on Monday to add new positions at very favorable prices, buying IYT calls that closed at $2.10 on the previous Friday at a remarkable $ .78, and while they closed only slightly higher at $1.10 we have a great cushion of profit while we wait to see what develops.
We also added ARRY 5/5 calls @ $ .35 and we were already forced to sell half on the 100% up rule when they gaped up to $1.00.
Our new position in CLDX 5/13 calls at $ .60 on Thursday closed at $1.05 when the stock rallied from $11.00 on Monday to close the week at $13.19.
While the “Sell in May and go away” might seem like just another Wall St. adage without much sense, it often is a useful period for the market to take a bit of a rest. Some of the big names such as IBM had disappointing earnings.
For protection against other names failing to meet even the lowered expectations on the revenue side of the equation, we have bought some SDS Calls, which go up inversely to the S&P 500.
We will continue to manage risk with a balanced approach.
…CAM
Where To Invest Now
Options Trading Strategies Table
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
VIP Subscriber Members Only TEXTING SERVICE TO
RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
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Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous
Market Strategies Newsletters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
For any questions please call (702) 650 3000.
Market Strategies Where To Invet Now
Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
Dow 14,547.51 -317.55 -2.14% |
Nasdaq 3206.06 -88.89 -2.70% |
S&P 500 1555.25 -33.60 -2.11% |
Transportation 6,034.14 -109.61 -1.78% |
Russell 2000 912.50 -30.35 -3.22% |
Nasdaq 100 2780.46 -76.02 -2.66% |
Gold (spot) 1395.30 -105.70 -7.0% |
Silver (Dec) 2296.0 -337.1 -12.8% |
Crude 88.01 -3.28 -3.6% |
Heating Oil 278.76 -8.42 -2.9% |
Unleaded Gas 2.7614 -.0487 -1.7% |
Natural Gas 4.408 +4.4% |
VIX 14.97 +2.91 +24% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 134/100’s +16/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 76/100’s +15/100’s
|
Bonds 148-04 +19 2.88% -0.04% |
10 Yr Note 133.00+006 1.70% -0.02%
|
Copper 314.85 -20.15 -6.0% |
CRB Inflation Index 283.19 -4.02 -1.4% |
Barron’s Confidence 66.3% -1.6% |
S&P100 700.82 -14.56 -2.04% |
5 Yr Note 124-127 -027 0.71% +0.02% |
Dollar 82.56 +0.25 +0.3% |
DJ Utilities 528.03 4.71 +0.90% |
AAII Confidence Index |
||
Bullish 26.9% +7.6% |
Bearish 48.2% -6.3% |
Neutral 24.9% -1.3% |
M1 Money Supply +9.02% Apr 8th |
M-2 Money Supply +6.74% Apr 8th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
No New Stock Trades for the coming Week unless they are Texted to you.
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
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Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Options Trading Strategies
Recommendations And Overall Comments
We lost $ 2,539.00 in closed out positions last week
mainly because of a TXGE sell stop.
Our profits for the year fell to a hypothetical $ 27,872
We have six options positions:
The Stock table includes the following seventeen positions:
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $ 5,918
in six options positions, $ 66,454 in the17 stock positions, a total of $ 72,373 with $ 27,627 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
- When the option has doubled sell half the position.
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
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Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | Caterpillar reports before the open
( 1.38 vs 2.37 )
10:00 hrs Existing Home Sales ( 5.01 vs 4.98 )
Crane reports (1.02 vs .88) Netflix |
Tuesday | Air Products reports before the open
( 1.37 vs 1.31 )
US Airways reports ( 0.26 vs -0.13 ) DuPont ( 1.52 vs 1.61 ) UTX and TRV
09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index ( NA vs 0.6% )
10:00 hrs New Home Sales Mar ( 415K vs 411K )
Apple Reports earnings ( ? vs 12.30 ) Top Line ( $ 42.4 vs $ 39.2 ) Norfolk Southern NSC reports after close ( 1.17 vs 1.23 ) Yum ( .60 vs .76 ) |
Wednesday | 08:30 hrs Durable Goods Mar
( -3.1% vs 5.6% )
DG ex-Trans ( 00% vs -0.7% )
Crude Inventories 04/20 ( NA vs -1.233Mln bbls ) |
Thursday | Exxon Mobil reports
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 04/13 ( 351K vs 352K ) Continuing Claims 04/13 ( 3060K vs 3068K )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 4/20 ( NA vs 31 bcf ) Starbucks ( SBUX earnings exp +21% top line + 12% ) |
Friday | Chevron reports
08:30 hrs GDP-adv 1st Qtr ( 2.8% vs 0.4% ) Implicit Price Deflator ( 1.6% vs 1.0% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Apr ( 72.4 vs 72.3 ) |
Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
All stock markets were weak last week as earnings were not as strong as expected while top line revenues were mostly meager, either weak or barely nudging above expectations at best. The Russell Small Caps were down the most, 3.22%, followed by Nasdaq, off 2.70%.
Only two Dow Industrial Groups were higher: Telecommunications, up 1.09% and Utilities + 0.81%.
Technology was the worst performer, off 4.36%. Apple, the largest participant led the decline down 8.7%. Oil and Gas lost 4.11% and Industrials 3.47%. The Transportation Index which failed to make a new high in contrast to both the Dow and S&P only needs to close 20 points higher to catapult above modest resistance.
Bonds had a real opportunity to take off but faltered at the 200 day M.A.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Economic reports last week were somewhat better than the week before.
Industrial production for March rose 0.4% and Capacity Utilization improved to 78.5%.
Housing Starts for March rose 7%, cracked the million mark 1,036K, the best since March ’08 when the market was cascading lower. However, multi-family construction made up the entire March gain and will likely be down considerably next month. Single Family Starts fell from 650,000 in February to 619,000 in March, the first decline 14720-14760 since November.
Building Permits declined 2.9% in March to 902,000 from 946,000 in February.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1533 – 1537
Resistance S&P 500 1578 – 1587
Support Levels DOW 14,385 – 14,445
Resistance DOW 14,570 – 14,630
Support Levels QQQ 66.80 – 67.30
Resistance QQQ 68.20
Support Levels Nasdaq 3170
Resistance Nasdaq 3268
Market Strategies Cycles
The Stock Trader’s Almanac issued a sell signal with a negative crossing of the MACD Index.
They believe the bull market has ended and the bear run has begun. IBM has accurately set the mood for the street most of the time ( almost 75% ) with its earnings reports, this time very negative. In the event they are right, volatility will need to pick up and the markets will be choppy if a top is in. Since mid-November of last year the market has enjoyed a solid run that has provided sizable gains. The trend remains higher until the constructive patterns are broken.
The bulk of the gains have been made by the DJ Transportation Index up 13.7% for the year.
The DJIA, is up 11% year-to-date. Broader indices like S&P 500 and NASDAQ have lagged, gaining 9.0% and 6.2% at their respective closes this past Friday. The Russell 2000 is up 7.4%.
Apple ( $ AAPL: $ 390.53 ) is off 158.50 points or 28.9% this year making a big problem for both the Nasdaq and S&P indexes being an extremely high cap stock with heavy influence. The stock continues to appear technically weak, but the fundamentals are strong. Apple is 2x cheaper than Microsoft and 4x cheaper than Google. At this valuation the market is implying that net income will revert back to 2011 levels.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best DJIA month since 1950, second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). In post-election years April remains a strong month. Its DJIA’s second best month, gaining 1.9% on average, fourth best for S&P 500 and third best for NASDAQ. April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.” Apple could surprise positively which would ratify the April trend.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
USE THE SUBSCRIBE OFFER BUTTON ON YOUR RIGHT
Rule 17 B Attestations:
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the three small penny stocks we represent for a total outlay of $ 9,725 is well worth the risk.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King (702) 650-3000
Or
Charles Moskowitz (781) 826-8882
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Phone: (702) 650-3000
Fax: (702) 697-8944