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Where To Invest August 3, 2017
Market Strategies Newsletter – Special Daily Edition

Todays’ market was up from the start but this time all of the “markets” were higher.  If that sound familiar it’s because I said it yesterday too.  We came in long, but the S&P500 just couldn’t get going (gain) so we sold the calls and traded the puts.  It took about 30 minutes for use to get out of the first half on 100% Up Rule, and when we rallied a bit more than I expected it to, we sold them for a $ .02 loss. This produced a 52% gain in the completed trade.  I watched and looked at the calls and the puts and just couldn’t feel comfortable with either, so I went back to my own personal mantra “When in doubt stay out.”  This market feels weak to me, but you can’t argue with the close near the high as a test of support near S&P 236.25.

 

We had plenty of earnings today with both beats and misses.  On the positive side we have ONCE +13.13 (19%), FEYE +.11 (after being up 2), ULTI -26.98 (12%) after a beat on net but lower revenues and a downgrade, TTWO +10 (12%), CAKE with a minor beat that took it higher but then -$4, AIG +2 with the conference call tomorrow before the open, FIT +.20 after trading +$ .45, SQ + .20 after +1.60, and the biggie: TSLA +6 at the close now trading +$32.44.

 

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The downside was littered with names that were misses or just negative guidance.  MTSI -15 (26%) on a miss attributed to weakness in China, AN -3 on the same issues as HTZ lower by another $1.42 after a slight bounce from Monday’s 20% downdraft on lower used car values, AAOI -6 (6%), LRCX -5.90 (and down from 170 to 151 in the past 5 trading days and part of the same group as MTSI), and the follow-thru from AMC -5.60 (27%) bled into RGC -.90 (5%).  

 

The oil held yesterday’s lows and turned up on the drawdown news. CVX -.32, XOM +.54, APC -.18, OXY-.02, COP+.86, BP +.23, PSX+1.04, RIG+.06, MPC -.33, MRO+.39, HES+.84, XLE -.21, and PXD closed $145.68 -17.59 (10.7%) with a low of $137 -25 after reporting an earnings beat but negative guidance.

 

Retail was lower after JWN announced that it hasn’t found a buyer for “preferred equity” to own the stock (46.49-2.45 or 5%) with M -.80, KSS-.47, DDS 73.09-3.56 and down from 83.44 in 2 days, SHLD-.34 (4.1%), JCP -.17, WMT +.04 and XRT -.86.

 

Disregarding the AAPL lift of +7, the big names were mixed with GOOGL +1.08, AMZN -.53, FB-.71, NFLX-1.03, NVDA +.37, BA-1.25, IBM -.80, and of course today’s big beat for TSLA +31.13 (9.74%).

 

As I mentioned above, the market feels weak and the internals bear that out with the NYSE 1.5:1 negative for both volume and A/D while the NASDAQ was worse at 2:1 and 2.5:1 negative respectively.  It’s hard to argue with the seasonal influence for the summer, and the fact that August is the “worst month” of the year with September following as #2.  If you can’t find the right risk profile it’s best to go fishing, play golf, or just hit the beach and recharge.  I expect the open tomorrow to be flat or higher and I’ll be watching today’s highs in the S&P500 (2480) and buying the puts again with a stop just over the high at 2484.

 

And again, with volatility so low it’s just foolish to not own protection.

 

 

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