
September 23, 2013
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
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http://www.princetonresearch.com/9-23-2013-Market-Strategies.pdf
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Market Strategies Stock Options Trading
$10,000 Account
There are 3 open positions:
4 WTW Oct 37.50 Calls,
6 DECK Oct 62.50 Calls and
10 DSX Oct 12 Calls
Funds in Use 2,220
Market Strategies Stock Options Trading
$10,000 Account Traders Comments
This week we had a loss of $1,558
bringing out YTD performance down to
a gain of $25,814
Returns of 258%
A big piece of the loss came from the surprise trading halt and early release of the Blackberry earnings (more specifically the lack thereof).
The other major component was the Sunday withdrawal of Larry Summers from the Fed Chairmanship with the gap in the SPY and our put position. Makes me wonder, how would I feel if I were either Summers, or Steve Ballmer the week before, when he announced stepping down and saw MSFT jump 8%…..
The market seems both tired and stretched here. Friday’s reversal of fortune took a bit of overbought out of the Dow but the S & P 500 can still use some more work.
One of the things that bothers me the most is the continued reoccurrence of gaps in both directions … since 6/19 we have had a total of 7 gaps … 4 up and 3 down …. The reason it disturbs me is simple; more news-related surprises fail to give participants the ability to make and act on decisions when the market gaps either way…it is a lack of liquidity at the prior prices.
I will continue to try to find shorts near resistance and longs near support. If we can get a bit of “horizontal” trading to better identify current support and resistance and show me some way to control risk I will have new trades via text.
There will be no radio show this week as travel will keep both Mike and I unavailable on Tuesday.
…CAM
Market Strategies Stock Options Trading Chart
$10,000 Account
New Trades:
1) BUY 8 SPY 9/27 171 PUTS @ $ .95 OB
2) BUY 15 XCO 10/7 CALLS @ $ .30 OB
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
9/20 |
This Information Is For Members Only |
Expired |
|
0 |
408 Loss |
9/20 |
0.48 |
|
288 |
540 Loss |
|
9/19 |
1.36 |
408 |
|
|
|
9/19 |
1.45 |
|
870 |
0 |
|
9/17 |
0.70 |
700 |
|
|
|
9/17 |
1.30 |
|
780 |
210 Gain |
|
9/16 |
1.60 |
960 |
|
|
|
9/16 |
0.95 |
570 |
|
|
|
9/16 |
0.36 |
|
360 |
820 Loss |
|
9/12 |
1.18 |
1180 |
|
|
|
9/12 |
1.38 |
828 |
|
|
|
9/09 |
1.40 |
560 |
|
|
|
8/14 |
1.45 |
870 |
|
|
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
For any questions please call (702) 650 3000.
Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
Dow 15,451.09 +75.03 +0.49% |
Nasdaq 3774.73 +52.54 +1.41% |
S&P 500 1709.91 +21.92 +1.30% |
Transportation 6692.26 +168.84 +2.59% |
Russell 2000 1072.83 +18.85 +1.79% |
Nasdaq 100 3224.73 +46.46 +1.46% |
Gold (spot) 1308.40 +24.10 +1.84% |
Silver (Dec ) 2172.0 +20.7 +1.0% |
Crude 104.67 -3.54 -3.3% |
Heating Oil 300.25 -11.12 -3.6% |
Unleaded Gas 2.6842 -0.0854 -3.1% |
Natural Gas 3.687 +.010 +0.3% |
VIX 13.12 -1.04 -7.4% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 100/100’s -59/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 57/100’s +2/100’s
|
Bonds 131-22 +1-28 3.76% -0.09% |
10 Yr Note 125-094 +1-24 2.73%-0.17% |
Copper 332.05 +11.70 +3.7% |
CRB Inflation Index 287.44 -3.58 -1.2% |
Barron’s Confidence 74.2% -1.7% |
S&P100 763.23 +9.16 +1.21% |
5 Yr Note 120-13 +1-066 1.47% -0.23%
|
Dollar 80.43 -1.03 -1.23% |
DJ Utilities 485.33 +1.77% |
AAII Confidence Index |
Bullish 45.1% -0.4% |
Bearish 29.7% +5.1% |
Neutral 25.2 -4.7%
|
M1 Money Supply +5.88% September 9th |
M-2 Money Supply +6.57% September 9th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock |
Purchase Price |
Purchase Date |
Stop/Loss |
Price/Date Sold |
Profit/(Loss) |
This Information Is For Members Only |
15.40 |
9/19 |
|
|
|
0.72 |
9/18 |
0.67 STOP |
|
|
|
5.09 |
9/17 |
4.60 SCO |
|
|
|
16.20 |
9/13 |
|
|
|
|
1.40 |
9/10 |
1.32 SCO |
|
|
|
10.80 |
9/4 |
|
|
|
|
14.41 |
8/28 |
|
|
|
|
13.37 |
8/23 |
|
|
|
|
14.55 |
8/23 |
|
|
|
|
19.52 |
8/19 |
|
|
|
|
15.05 |
8/19 |
|
|
|
|
6.21 |
8/14 |
|
|
|
|
4.08 |
8/12 |
|
|
|
|
6.56 |
7/11 |
|
|
|
|
12.10 |
5/23 |
|
|
|
|
20.35 |
5/09 |
|
|
|
|
22.20 |
4/22 |
|
|
|
|
4.10 |
3/04 |
|
|
|
|
48.60 |
11/26/12 |
|
|
|
|
538 |
11/08/12 |
|
|
|
|
636 |
10/9/12 |
|
|
|
|
35.27 |
8/31/12 |
|
|
|
|
.25 |
3/12/12 |
.08 sco |
|
|
|
0.22 |
10/22/12 |
.12 sco |
|
|
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
New Trades:
1) BUY 16 SPY 9/27 171 PUTS @ $ .95 OB
2) BUY 30 XCO 10/7 CALLS @ $ .30 OB
We lost $ 3116 in closed out positions last week
reducing our profits for the year to a hypothetical $ 56,740
not counting open positions losses of about $ 12,100.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple and JP Morgan.
We have three long options positions:
The Stock table has the following 25 positions:
Last week’s stock and option tables had typo mistakes and have been updated. The stock table did not include BBRY, NBG, ARRY and PPHM positions. Also the stock table has been updated to reflect the reverse split on NBG. The option table had a typo mistake where 168 SPY puts were listed as 167 Puts.
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000
and are using $ 4,440 in three options positions and
$ 85,366 in 25 stock positions
totaling $ 89,806 with $ 10,194 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option |
Cost |
Date |
Sold |
Date |
Profit/ (Loss) |
This Information Is For Members Only |
Puts 1.36 |
9/19/13 |
Expired |
9/20/13 |
( 816 ) |
Calls 0.70 |
9/17/13 |
|
|
|
|
Calls 1.60 |
9/16/12 |
|
|
|
|
Puts 0.95 |
9/16/13 |
1.30 |
9/17/13 |
420 |
|
Puts 1.18 |
9/12/13 |
0.36 |
9/16/13 |
( 1,640 ) |
|
Calls 1.38 |
9/12/13 |
0.48 |
9/20/13 |
( 1,080 ) |
|
Calls 1.40 |
9/09/13 |
|
|
|
|
Calls 1.45 |
8/14/13 |
1.45 |
9/19/13 |
No change |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit:
PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm
To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate
This Weeks’ Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | HSBC Flash Mfg Chinese PMI Sep ( 50.9 vs 50.1 ) and Germany Elections results are reported Sunday night. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe begins a visit to U.S and Canada.
Microsoft releases its new Surface Tablet. Eli-Lilly and other drug makers meet in Spain for an annual Diabetes Conference and report study results.
Fed’s Dudley and Lockhart make speeches in the morning and Fischer during the afternoon.
|
Tuesday | 09:00 hrs Case-Shiller 20-city Index
Jul (11.5% vs 12.1 )
09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index Jul ( NA vs 0.7% ) 10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence Sep ( 80.0 vs 81.5 )
|
Wednesday | 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 09/14
( NA vs 11.2% ) 08:30 hrs Durable Orders Aug ( 0.4% vs -7.4% ) 08:30 hrs Durable Goods – ex transportation Aug ( 0.9% vs -0.8% ) 10:00 hrs New Home Sales Aug ( 416K vs 394K )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 9/21 ( NA vs -4.368Mln Bbls)
|
Thursday | 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 09/21
( 325K vs 309K ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 09/14 ( 2775K vs 2787K ) 08:30 hrs GDP – Third Estimate Q2 ( 2.5% vs 2.5% )
08:30 hrs GDP Deflator – Third Estimate Q2 ( 0.8% vs 0.8% )
10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Aug ( -2.3% vs -1.3% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 09/21 ( NA vs 46bcf )
|
Friday | 08:30 hrs Personal Income Aug ( 0.4% vs 0.1% )
08:30 hrs Personal Spending Aug ( 0.2% vs 0.1% )
08:30 hrs PCE Prices – Core Aug ( 0.1% vs 0.1% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment – Final Sep ( 77.3 vs 76.8 )
|
Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
The Federal Reserve unexpectedly decided to maintain quantitative easing in the face of uneven economic results. Mr. Bernanke said economic data received since June has not been strong enough to justify scaling back asset purchases just yet. Nine sectors of the stock market finished the week with gains while telecom services closed the week flat as investors poured money into the Stocks Funds at a pace not seen since the third quarter of 2007.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The Fed lowered its GDP forecast for 2013 and 2014 GDP was also lowered.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee is expecting this year’s growth to range between 2.0% and 2.3% versus 2.3%-2.6% in June. The Fed’s 2014 growth projections were lowered to a range between 2.9% and 3.1% versus 3.0% – 3.5% in June.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1696 and 1672
Resistance S&P 500 1738
Support Levels DOW 15,290
Resistance DOW 15,740
Support Levels QQQ 77.63
Resistance QQQ 80.29
Support Levels Nasdaq 3743
Resistance Nasdaq 3682
Market Strategies Cycles
October Seasonalities; (from Stock Trader’s Almanac)
Transports enter their historically favorable season at the beginning of October and it runs until May.
iShares DJ Transports (IYT) is attractive below current levels with a buy limit of $115.67. The stop loss is $104.10 and auto sell is $154.72. Top 5 holdings are: Union Pacific, Kansas City Southern, FedEx, UPS, and Alaska Air Group. A pickup in Chinese growth and exports usually translates directly to a pickup in the transportation sector. After all, those goods need to be moved from the factory to stores. With nearly 70% of U.S GDP coming from consumers, seasonal strength in the consumer sector overlaps nicely with the transportation sector.
Broker/Dealer has produced returns of 32.7% and 18.2% over the last 15 and 5 years respectively from early October to the middle of April. iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers (IAI) is our choice to trade this seasonality. Use a buy limit of $32.61 and a stop loss of $29.35 once a position has been entered. The auto sell is $47.60. Top 5 holdings are: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Ameriprise Financial and CME Group. Solid year-to-date market gains and the end of the summer doldrums are likely to boost profits for this group. However, trading screw ups, software glitches and litigation costs are still major concerns.
Healthcare Providers enters its favorable season at the end of October and runs until mid-January. iShares DJ US Healthcare Providers (IHF) is attractive near current levels with a buy limit of $87.53. The stop loss is $78.78 and auto sell is $109.09. Top 5 holdings are: UnitedHealth, Express Scripts, Wellpoint, Aetna, and Cigna. Healthcare costs are an issue in the U.S., but much like food and shelter they are a necessity in life.
Rule 17 B Attestations:
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products.
Princeton will be engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the two small penny stocks ( REPR and AIVN ) we represent for a total outlay of $ 4,725 is well worth the risk. The Target ADR trades at about $5.90 in U.S. vs 0.065 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King (702) 650-3000
Or
Charles Moskowitz (781) 826-8882
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Phone: (702) 650-3000
Fax: (702) 697-8944