Where To Invest
Where To Invest Newsletter
February 20, 2017 Market Strategies Newsletter
Where To Invest Now
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest Newsletter
February 20, 2017 Sample Issue in .pdf format HERE
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Charles Moskowitz Traders Discussion
The week itself saw several days of new all-time highs in the indexes. Even the Transports were higher on the week after flashing another Dow Theory confirmation on Wednesday. The market continues to grind higher with the default being “If they can’t take it down, they take it up.” The only problem with this is that the internals are lagging and the new high/new low numbers are showing that this market is slowing. The only issue that is clear now, as it has been for months, is the vacuum below anyone who misses numbers (often already reduced) or gives poor forward guidance. It is not the least bit unusual to see drops of 10, 15 or 25% at the open for these sins.
The cross currents continue with the US$ slightly higher on the week with Gold and Silver also higher and Oil just slightly lower. The Copper has had a great run from $2.05 back to $2.75, but when viewed in a long term time frame is still down over 50% from its 2011 highs of over $4.50. If we do, in fact start to see more strong economic numbers, the metals have plenty of room to run on demand for use plus inflation hedges.
While I don’t want to try to pick a top in this market and get beaten over and over again, I will probably be buying a few S&P500 puts with a very short expiration as the weeks go on in order to protect against the downside. As I said above, we are getting tired and the internals are a little soft, and believe it or not, this market will pull back. Capitulation is coming and I have no desire to be naked long when we blow off, or Washington does something stupid and the switch that got turned on after election day gets turned off…CAM
Since I will be traveling to Las Vegas for some meetings on Monday I am going to keep positions light until Tuesday, although I do want to get back into Kellogg (K) on any pullback and will have that order tonight.
There are some pretty interesting cross currents at work here. The dollar was strong early in the week with gold moving higher and oil was lower. When the US$ gained strength on Wednesday the oil turned higher and the gold fell and then rebounded both closing at or near their highs.
On to the Trump issues of the week; I think this guy needs a bit more help from his advisors. He has some excellent ideas, but they belong in the business arena and just don’t translate into the political realm as apples to apples. As I mentioned in my mid-week note, many of the unintended consequences are just not foreseeable even for the smartest and most seasoned, and frankly the business of politics is politics, not business. These are issued ingrained for a very long time and not given up easily, like term limits. I hate to use the tanker cliché, but this is a ship that is just too big and difficult to turn on a dime.
As for the markets, they continue to grind higher and every day that we start off week and end with a rally back and $500MM or $1Billion to buy on the close shows the appetite for stocks. The strong US$ is a problem and the internationals can be hurt, but the strange thing about that scenario is that many are defensive stocks and as such get a lift in a weak market.
As I said above, this is a market with some very interesting cross currents….CAM
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This Princeton Research, Inc. publication features:
- Investment Alerts Trade Analysis and Discussion
Head Trader, Charles Moskowitz, reviews trades made, what he is watching now, analysis of where he sees things going and where to investing now in the coming week.
- Investing Trade Alerts Trade Table, Positions and Performance Summaries
See where we are invested and our performance for the week. This includes trading tables and positions showing profits and losses for the week.
- Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
The Market Laboratory table provides a fast overview guide, giving our readers a great analysis of market sentiment and the general prevailing attitude of investors. This continues to be a strong, solid indicator of where to invest now.
- Market Strategies Technical Information
This great where to invest now market analysis tool allows you to quickly see, at a glance, support and resistance levels for the major indexes;
Dow, S&P 500, QQQ, Transports and NASDAQ
- Our Stock and Options Trading Accounts Trade Tables, Positions and Performance Summaries
See where we are invested and our performance for the week. This includes trading tables and positions showing profits and losses for the week.
We cover both a $10,000 trading portfolio and a $100,000 trading portfolio. These benchmark levels provide a guideline, enabling our members to scale their investment level amounts up or down depending on the capital they have and are comfortable investing.
- Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
See coverage of the undervalued, small cap, lower priced stocks we follow. These companies have innovative, life enhancing technologies. They possess the potential to produce significant price upward swings, giving investors big profit returns.
- Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
We use fundamental analysis we select top stocks to buy now. Buying these stocks while using stops to protect capital, continues to produce solid, strong profits for us.
- This Weeks’ Economic Numbers, Earnings Releases and Media Data
See this week’s coming earnings report and economics information. This information provides a tremendous advantage in pin pointing stocks that can perform or drop due to earnings reports.
The economic data keeps us up to date on the most important daily where to invest now information coming out.
- Market Strategies Fundamentals
Fundamental analysis of industries, top stocks, the economy and the markets together with US and World events provides great insight into where the next investment winners will be.
- Market Strategies Economic Data
Our in-depth analysis of current economic data projects where the economy and the market is going showing us which sectors and companies in them are the strongest investments now.
- Market Cycles
Our in-depth analysis of market cycles, which are known among top traders as “The Key To Maximum Returns”.
- Trader’s Almanac
This daily Calendar of Market and Economic Events quickly shows, at a glance, important economic, market and trading events for the month.
A Sample of the Where To Invest Now Newsletter
Information Our Members Get Follows
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
We remain long Alcoa AA, which is coming into support. Try to buy around 33.80.
Flushing Financial. FFIC rebounded nicely last week. We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and very much interested in holding long the Flushing Financial. Bank stocks are to be bought in a reaction phase after having continued bullish into the new year. You must use your own discretion on whether to take profits.
The Boeing has gone to $ 173, above the previous high at $ 169.80-170.00, surging from a new high in defense stocks.
We bought Bristol Myers at $49.20 back on October 17th, sold on stop at 55.45 December 7th.
We are looking to re-buy Hecla HL which was stopped out at $ 5.64 on Dec 15th.
The HDGE is not relevant at this time.
We are looking to buy the GSCI symbol GSG, a commodity indexed fund managed by Goldman.
|Symbol||Name||Business Description||PE||P/S||MV mln||Price||Buy or Sell Limit||Stop Loss
|AMZN||Amazon||Catalog & Mail Order||189||2.90||394B||845.07||821||811x|
|SIMO||Silicon Motion||Semiconductor solutions for mobile storage and communications||9.7||2.5||1.39B||41.85||39.10
|Real Estate Investment Trust high quality Offices||292||5.8||396Mln||13.00||12.52
|GSG||GSCI||Commodity Indexed Fund||15.45||15.00||14.50x|
|SAVE||Spirit Airlines||Discount Airline||13||1.6||3.6B||53.88|| 46.15
|51.75 stopped out 2/17/17|
|BMY||Bristol Myers||Biopharmaceutical Products||28||5.1||94.9B|| 54.59
55 is the resistance
|BA||Boeing||Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems||14||0.85||81B||172.71|| Long at
|Stop at 147.21|
|HL||Hecla Mining||Basic Materials||44||3.61||1.7B||6.58||6.21||5.24 buy area|
|FFIC||Flushing Financial||Bank Holding company Savings and loans||13||3,5||592Mln||28.93|| 19.10
|AA||Alcoa||Aluminum Processing and Technology||N/A||0.4||9.5B||36.21||21.15 originally bought 2/8/16||Sold at 37.89 and 36.83
|ENZ||Enzo Biochem||Life Sciences||NA||1.35||134M||6.84||Bought
|Must hold 50 day m.a. at around $ 5.50
To be long
|BAC||Bank of America||Commercial Bank||10||2.02||165.3B||24.52
|Bought at 15.42
|HDGE||Advisor Shares||Ranger Bear ETF|| 8.85
| Stopped out at 9.01
|Must close above 9.11 to hold 9.01sco|
Market Strategies Economic Data
January Retail Sales increased 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) on top of an upwardly revised 1.0% increase (from +0.6%) for December. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) on top of an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from +0.2%) for December.
Core retail sales, which exclude auto, gasoline station, building materials, and food services sales, and which are used in the computation of the goods component for personal consumption expenditures, increased 0.4%.
Motor vehicle sales were down 1.4%, but otherwise, there were no glaring points of weakness in January retail sales, which got a nice boost from a 2.3% increase in gasoline station sales and a 1.4% increase in food services and drinking place sales.
Electronics and appliance store sales jumped 1.6% following a 1.1% decline in December.
Miscellaneous store retailer sales dipped 0.2% after declining 0.4% in December. Discretionary spending on goods picked up in January, which will compute into a positive input for first quarter GDP forecasts.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) report for January caused a bit of a headline stir this morning with upside surprises for both final demand prices and final demand prices, excluding food and energy. The former was up 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) while the latter was up 0.4%. More than half of the advance in January was attributable to a 1.0% increase in prices for final demand goods, which was paced by a 4.7% increase in the index for gasoline prices.
The index for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 1.1% in January, with the bulk of that move tied to a 4.9% rise in prices for processed energy goods. A 7.8% increase in the gasoline index accounted for nearly half the increase in the all items index in January, but the indexes for shelter (+0.2%), apparel (+1.4%), and new vehicles (+0.9%) were also major contributors.
The index for final demand services rose 0.3% in January after increasing 0.1% in December.
Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 3.8%, with about 60% of the increase attributable to a 6.7% advance in the index for unprocessed energy materials
|Core (excluding …)|
|Food and Energy||0.4%||0.1%||0.5%||-0.2%||0.2%|
|Food, Energy, and Trade||0.2%||0.1%||0.2%||0.1%||0.1%|
|Final Demand Goods|
|Final Demand Services|
Industrial Production decreased 0.3% in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%) following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase (from +0.8%) in December. Capacity Utilization fell to 75.3% (Briefing.com consensus 75.5%) from an upwardly revised 75.6% reading (from 75.5%) for December. At 75.3%, the capacity utilization rate is 4.6 percentage points below its long-run average. On a year-over-year basis, total industrial production is unchanged.
Manufacturing output increased 0.2% for the second straight month despite a 2.9% decrease in the output of motor vehicles and parts.
Mining output jumped 2.8% on the heels of a 1.4% decline in December.
Utilities output declined 5.7% in January as the demand for heating was reduced by unseasonably warm weather. The output of utilities increased 5.1% in December when temperatures were more in-line with seasonal norms.
Market Strategies Cycles
Using a 20% decline as the definition of a bear market, there have been 11 bull markets including the current one and 10 bear markets since 1949. The previous ten bull markets lasted an average of 1770 calendar days and produced gains of 161.4%. Within these 11 bull markets there were 23 corrections ranging from 10% to 19.9% for an average of just slightly more than two corrections per bull market. The current bull market, at 2898 days old and 244.1% gain is above average in duration, magnitude and number of corrections. However, there have been longer bull markets with even more corrections.
The quickest correction was 18 calendar days in 1955 while the longest was 531 from September 1976 to March 1978. The longest the S&P 500 went without a 10% correction was 2553 calendar days from October 1990 until October 1997. The second longest streak without a correction occurred in the last bull market that ended in 2007 when the S&P 500 went 1673 days. The fewest number of days between corrections was 35 in 1974.
The S&P 500’s current streak of 368 days is less than the average amount of time between corrections and is not of major concern. The previous streak lasted 1326 calendar days and ended with the S&P 500 sliding 14.2% over 266 days. Past bullish periods were often devoid of corrections. Low volatility and extended age do not kill bull markets. However, crumbling economic data and/or geopolitical/exogenous events do.
At this moment economic data is reasonably healthy and the expectation is for further improvement. Geopolitical and other outside risks do exist (always did and will), but the odds they will significantly upset the U.S. or global economy do not appear extremely elevated.
Portfolio & Free Lunch Updates
Over the nearly four weeks since last update, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 climbed 2.5% higher as of yesterday’s close. The Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio’s blend of cash and long positions resulted in a 1.0% overall gain over the same time period. The Large-Cap portfolio produced the most gain at 2.2%. Mid-Caps were second at 1.3% and Small-Caps contributed just 0.7%. Were it not for the sizable cash position in the portfolio results could have been better. The Stock Trader’s Analyst Stock Portfolio is under invested at this time of the “Best Six/Eight Months.”
The sole remaining stock from Free Lunch, Hanesbrands (HBI), was stopped out on February 3 when it closed below its 5% trailing stop loss of $22.64. On that day HBI reported disappointing earnings and offered tepid guidance that resulted in a single day loss in excess of 16%. HBI was closed out of the portfolio using its average price of $19.22 on February 6 for a 10.9% loss.
In the following table, each bull market has been broken down and includes the corrections that occurred within it. The bull markets beginning and end dates and closing prices are included and are used to calculate the “Days between Corrections.” In each row labeled “Bull End,” that bull market’s duration and gain is calculated.
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Pressure Biosciences, Inc (PBIO) is not in the usual class of stock the Stock Trader’s Almanac presents to you that comes through our rigorous screens. All those stocks must by definition have both reported revenue and positive earnings (unless it’s a short trade). PBIO has revenue albeit small so far, but not positive earnings. The reason being it is much more early stage than the STA would normally bring to your attention.
There are three main reasons this stock looks attractive:
- The technology and product look quite promising and is in one of our favorite long term sectors, biotech.
- The stock price is way down, trading at a 52-week low and looks undervalued and unnecessarily low. So we are not chasing some runaway, hyped-up penny stock.
- The CEO and founder, Richard Schumacher has a solid history in the industry of bringing startups and early stage companies to fruition.
The company’s patented pressure cycling technology (PCT) uses highly controlled hydrostatic pressure to crack open all types of cells with the minimum amount of pressure to “open” the cell up gently to preserve as much cellular material as possible for more effective results in research, testing and development in the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and other industries.
The PCT platform uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels to safely and reproducibly control bio-molecular interactions. PBIO has installed over 250 PCT systems in approximately 160 sites worldwide. Over 100 publications cite the advantages of the PCT platform over competitive methods. Primary markets are in the biomarker discovery, drug discovery and design, and forensics areas. The technology also has been applied to bio-therapeutics characterization, soil & plant biology, vaccine development, and counter-bioterror.
Two weeks ago the company announced “CE” approval, which enables them to market and sell the product in Europe. They have just entered their second year with co-marketing partner SCIEX, a global leader in mass spectrometry and a trusted partner to scientists and lab analysts worldwide, which is a division of Danaher (DHR:NYSE).
There newest and improved PCT product, the Barocycler® 2320EXT (EXT for extreme) is computer controlled and allows the user more capabilities than previous models and has so far been well received by scientists and researchers. The plan is to hire or bring in a real sales force in Q1 2017 to ramp up sales of the new Barocycler.
The major hurdle and issue here is the potential dilution from a proposed share offering. This is what apparently knocked the stock down last fall into early 2017 from the mid-40-cent range to the current 15-16 cent range. The good news is it seems to have found support at 15 cents. The offering is intended to raise funds for expansion and to aid in getting the stock onto regular NASDAQ. In order to do that they stock needs to be trading at $4 or higher as required for a company traded publicly for three years and needs shareholder equity of $5 million.
The offering would give them the $5 mil in shareholder equity, but they will likely need to reverse split the stock to get the price up to the required level. The question is at what price they will be able to do the offering and reverse split. This is definitely a high-risk speculation, but the potential reward seems worth a shot for a small portion of your speculative capital.
The above analysis comes from Jeff Hirsch of STA.
Pressure Bio Sciences OTCQB: PBIO (0.16)* has identified significant “needs” and the means to fill them in the world of today and the foreseeable future:
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market.
PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas.
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure Bio Science, Inc. is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
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