July 21, 2014
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Where To Invest $10000
Covering High Return Balanced Stock Market
Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
Read This Where To Invest In August 2014 Newsletter issue in .pdf format:
http://www.princetonresearch.com/7-21-2014-Market-Strategies.pdf
Over 284% Gains In 2013
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In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479
Over 284% Returns
A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479
The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.
284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013
171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012
77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)
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What Should I Invest In
How To Invest 10000
Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account
Traders Comments
There are two open positions:
BA August 130 Call
COP August 90 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,096
Gain for the week $ 340
YTD Gain $ 2,415
Over 24% Returns
This week we were a little more active with a very short fuse on taking both profits and losses. Our gain was $340 and brought the YTD gain to $2,415.
Positions in both BA and COP give us $1,096 of funds in use.
Once again, the only real selloff was caused by an unknown and unknowable issue. After a substantial decline on the news of Malaysian 17, we started to rally, but the implications took over and we sold off hard. As I’ve stated before, Putin is a thug with a long term view of how he wants Russia to be rebuilt. The degree of irresponsibly in giving uncontrollable factions sophisticated weaponry is remarkable.
Technically, everything discussed in this space for the past several weeks still holds true M & A activity continues at a torrid pace and while that is a fundamental issue it does furnish the
market with its most necessary fuel…money. The MH17 murders clearly give us another brick in the “wall of worry.” But it didn’t take long for investors to say that is over there and it has nothing to do with our earnings driven market. We are still the land of opportunity and the safe haven in the world. My only issue was that fact that the Friday rally was an “inside day,” but upon looking at the S & P500 chart almost ALL of the recovery days (2/4, 4/11,5/16,6/13, 7/11 and 7/18) are the same.
As you can see by the trades for the week, we were liquidating partial positions on the way up or unfortunately on the 50% Down Rule. I will continue to look for charts at or near support to buy calls and those near resistance and weakness to own the puts. While I’d like to trade the Dow Jones options, they are somewhat illiquid and are usually a “discount bid / premium offer.”
This means you not only have to be right, but very right.
One of the charts that look great, has gone thru a pullback and looks ready to go again is FB. It looks to me like a run to $78-82 is right around the corner. BA which has been a favorite of mine is not so bullish but is oversold and is at support on both the daily and weekly charts.
Again, I will look for more trades this week but will not let any of them get away from us. And of course, we’ll be looking for balance and protection……CAM
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Investing Strategies
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account
Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 07/18 | Sold 2 IWM August 113 Puts | 2.41 | 482 | 30 Gain | |
| 07/17 | Sold 1 IWM August 113 Put | 2.76 | 276 | 50 Gain | |
| 07/17 | Bought 3 IWM August 113 Puts | 2.26 | 678 | ||
| 07/16 | Sold 4 RIG August 45 Calls | 0.95 | 380 | 48 Gain | |
| 07/16 | Bought 10 COP August 90 Calls | 0.43 | |||
| 07/16 | Bought 4 RIG August 45 Calls | 0.83 | 332 | ||
| 07/16 | Sold 10 UNG August 24 Calls( 50% Loss Rule ) | 0.26. | 260 | 250 Loss | |
| 07/16 | Sold 4 RIG August 44 Calls | 1.39 | 556 | 240 Gain | |
| 07/16 | Sold 10 KIRK July 20 Calls | 0.30 | 300 | 150 Loss | |
| 07/15 | Sold 4 XLF August 22 Calls
Sold 4 XLF Aug 22 Calls ( Later Same day ) |
1.10
1.03 |
440
412 |
128 Gain
100 Gain |
|
| 07/14 | Sold 6 OSIR July 16 Calls | 1.30 | 780 | 240 Gain | |
| 07/14 | Sold 3 IWM August 113 Puts | 1.40 | 420 | 96 Loss | |
| 07/11 | Bought 3 IWM August 113 Puts | 1.72 | 516 | ||
| 07/11 | Bought 3 BA August 130 Calls | 2.22 | 666 | ||
| 07/10 | Bought 8 XLF August 22 Calls | 0.78 | 624 | ||
| 07/09 | Bought 10 UNG August 24 Calls | 0.78 | 780 | ||
| 07/08 | Bought 4 RIG August 44 Calls | 0.79 | 316 | ||
| 07/01 | Bought 6 OSIR July 16 Calls | 0.90 | 540 | ||
| 06/06 | Bought 10 KIRK July 20 Calls | 0.45 | 450 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
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Good Stocks To Invest In
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
| Dow
17,100.18 +0.92% |
Nasdaq
4432.15 +16.66 |
S&P 500
1978.22 +10.65 +0.54% |
Transportation
8385.40 +131.09 +1.59% |
Russell 2000
1151.61 -0.72% |
Nasdaq 100
3939.89 +35.31 +0.90% |
| Gold (spot)
1309.20 -27.80 -2.1% |
Silver (July)
2088.6 -57.5 -2.7% |
Crude
103.13 +2.30 +2.3% |
Heating Oil
285.74 -1.60 -1.2% |
Unleaded Gas
2.8603 -0.0482 -1.7% |
Natural Gas
3.951 -0.195 -4.7% |
| VIX
12.06 -0.02 -0.01% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 136/100’s -63/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 57/100’s -3/100’s
|
Bonds 138-02 + 22 3.29% -0.06% |
10 Yr. Note
125-09 +0-02 2.49% -0.04%
|
Copper
318.45 -8.45 -2.6% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 297.42 +0.35 +0.1% |
B9arron’s Confidence
69.9% -0.9% |
S&P100
879.49 +7.59 +0.87% |
5 Yr. Note
119-06 -052 1.66% +0.01%
|
Dollar
80.50 +0.31 +0.4% |
DJ Utilities
559.13 -0.30 -0.05% |
| AAII
Confidence Index |
Bullish
32.4% -5.2% |
Bearish
28.5% -0.2% |
Neutral
39.1% +5.4 |
M1 Money Supply
+12.19% July7th |
M-2 Money
Supply +6.73% July7th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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Where To Invest Your Money August 2014
New Stock Recommendations $100,000 Portfolio
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | ||
| MBI 500 | 9.54 | 07/14 | |||||
| BCRH 300 | 19.45 | 07/10 | |||||
| MVIS 2000 | 2.02 | 06/30 | 1.87sco | 07/15 2.40 | $ 760 | ||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | |||||
| GLXZ 5000 | 0.46 | 05/12 | |||||
| XRGYF 5000* | 0.407 | 03/14 | |||||
| OSIR 300 | 15.94 | 02/13 | |||||
| GRPN 500 | 10.40 | 01/28 | |||||
| RPTP 400 | 15.37 | 01/16 | |||||
| AA 300 100
Sold 200 |
10.06 | 01/10 | 6/26 14.87 | $ 854 | |||
| WLT 300 | 16.22 | 12/23 | |||||
| GSG 150 | 32.64 | 12/23 | 32.21 sco | ||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | |||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| NBG 300 | 12.10 | 5/23 | |||||
| HL 1000 | 4.10 | 3/04 | 2.64 sco | ||||
| AAPL 35 | 76.85 | 11/08/12 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco | ||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
No new Trades
All trades will be Texted
There was one closed out stock position last week; the MVIS making a nice net gain of $ 760.
We also added $ 688 in the options account for a total gain of $ 1,448 for the week.
The year to-date realized gain rose to $ 14,614.
For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.
We have open position losses now of about $9,852 some of which are in coal stocks, NBG and small cap bio-med stocks held over from last year.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American (NAT), BCRH and JP Morgan.
We have two long options positions: BA August 130 Calls; COP August 90 Calls
The Stock table has the following 16 positions: AA, AAPL,BCRH, GRPN, GLXZ; GSG, HL, MBI, NBG (3), OSIR, REPR, RPTP, TEXQY, WLT, XRGYF:
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using
$ 2,192 in two options positions and
$ 58,413 in 17 stock positions totaling
$ 60,605 with
$ 39,395 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from ouractual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | COST | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
| IWM Aug 113
6 lots |
Puts
2.26 |
07/17/14
07/18/14 |
2.76 Sold 2 lots
2.41 Sold Balance |
07/17/14
07/18/14
|
$ 100.00
$ 60.00
|
| COP August 90 | Calls
0.43 |
07/16/14 | |||
| RIG Aug 45
8 lots |
Calls
0.83
|
07/16/14 | 0.95 | 07/16/14 | 96.00 |
| BA Aug 130
6 lots |
Calls
2.22 |
07/11/14 | |||
| IWM Aug 130
6 lots |
Puts
1.72 |
07/11/14 | 1.40 | 07/14/14 | ( $ 192.00 ) |
| XLF August 22
16 lots |
Calls
0.78 |
07/10/14 | 1.10 Sold 4
1.03 Sold 4
|
07/15/14
07/16/14 |
$ 256.00
$ 200.00 |
| UNG August 24
20 lots |
Calls
0.51 |
07/09/14 | 0.26 ( 50% Loss Rule ) | 07/16/14 | ( $ 500.00 ) |
| RIG August 44 | Calls
0.79 |
07/08/14 | 1.39 | 07/16/14 | $ 480.00 |
| OSIR July 16
12 lots |
Calls
0.90 |
07/01/14 | 1.30 | 07/14/14 | $ 480.00. |
| KIRK July 20
20 lots |
Calls 0.45 | 06/06/14 | 0.30 | 07/16/14 | ( $ 300.00 ) |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
| Monday | Before the Open
Allergan reports Earnings ( $ 1.44 consensus ) Halliburton HAL ( 0.91 vs 0.73 ) Manpower MAN ( 1.33 vs 1.05 )
After the close: Chipotle CMG ( $ 3.00 vs$ 2.82 ) RCII ( 0.38 vs 0.76 ) NFLX ( 1.15 vs 0.49 ) Tex Inst ( 0.62 vs 0.42 ) RMBS ( 0.15 vs 0.06 )
|
| Tuesday | KO ( 0.63 vs Same )
DuPont ( 1.17 vs 1.28 ) HOG ( 1.46 vs 1.21 )
08:30 hrs CPI June ( 0.3% vs 0.4% ) CORE CPI ( 0.2% vs 0.3% )
09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index May ( NA vs 0.0% )
AAPL ( $ 1.23 vs $ 7.47 ) FBC ( 0.20 vs 1.10 ) XOOM ( 0.05 vs 0.14 ) |
| Wednesday | Before the open
BA ( 1.99 vs 1.67 ) DAL ( 1.04 vs 0.98 ) DOW ( 0.72 vs 0.64 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 07/19 ( NA vs -3.6% )
08:30 hrs PPI June ( 0.2% vs 0.2% ) CORE PPI ( 0.2% vs -0.1% )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 07/19 ( NA vs -7.525 Mln Bbls )
FB ( 0.32 vs 0.19 ) KALU ( 0.87 vs 0.91 ) O’Reilly Auto ORLY ( 1.86 vs 1.58 ) Qualcom QCOM (1.21 vs 1.03 ) Sketchers SKX ( 0.40 vs 0.14 )
|
| Thursday | MMM ( 1.91 vs 1.71 )
ALK 1.09 vs 1.47 ) AAL 1.94 CAT ( 1.52 vs 1.45 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 07/19 ( 308K vs 302K )
08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 07/12 ( 2533K vs 2507K )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 07/19 ( NA vs 107 bcf )
BAIDU ( 1.36 vs 1.22 ) DECK ( -1.28 vs -0.85 ) VISA ( 2.09 vs 1.88 )
|
| Friday | Avery ( 0.80 vs 0.71 )
MCO ( 1.01 vs 1.00 ) DTE (0.75 vs 0.62 ) XRX 0.26 vs 0.27
08:30 hrs Durable Goods Orders June ( 0.3% vs -0.9% ) D.G. Ex-Transportation ( 0.7% vs 0.0% )
|
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Market Strategies Fundamentals
Impressive earnings from large cap companies and a $ 75 billion buy-out offer for Time Warner helped equities gain for the week, overcoming geopolitical crises. 63 of the 82 companies that have posted earnings this quarter showed profit gains of 6.2% and top line growth of 3.3%. This week we will hear from Apple, Boeing, Facebook, Microsoft, McDonald’s, 3 M’s and Netflix.
May Long term TIC Flows showed a $ 19.40 billion inflow of foreign capital into U.S. denominated assets after an outflow of $ 41 billion in April.
China came through with impressive year-to-year numbers.:
GDP came in at an impressive + 7.5%. Industrial Production rose 9.2%; Fixed Asset Investment gained 17.3%. Retail Sales jumped 12.4%.China’s Home Sales were down 6.7% for the year. Property Construction was off 16%. Even with all the geo-political problems, the fear of growing sanctions against Russia, and escalations of violence almost everywhere,. The Philippine GDP is growing at a 6.7% clip as the industrial complexes in Asia continue exceptionally ebullient. South Korea’s Unemployment rate ticked down impressively to 3.6%.Samsung continues to be a world leading company but almost impossible to trade in America.
Italy’s trade surplus expanded to 3.68 billion Euros and Spain’s deficit narrowed to 1.98 billion Euros.
Earnings from America’s Large Cap companies continue very strong. Google ( GOOG: $ 595.08 ) + 21.25 from the previous close on revenue of $ 15.96 billion, a $ 350 million top line surprise while bottom line earnings were $ 0.15 below expectations. Google falls right behind Apple and Exxon Mobil as the third largest capitalized company at roughly $ 402 billion. Google has had revenue growth of 26% the last couple years while growing at a 21% clip during the recession years of 2007-2010. Google has 675 million shares outstanding.
Janet Yellen’s testimony was reasonable, continuing positive for the markets: Here’s what Yellen said: “Nevertheless, valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched — particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early in the year.”
December 5, 1996. Alan Greenspan said in his “ irrational exuberance speech to the American Enterprise Institute: “Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?”
Market Strategies Economic Data
Both the NY and Philadelphia fed manufacturing indexes showed great strength in July. It was beyond great strength. These are record numbers. The Empire Manufacturing numbers were at a huge 25.6 for Juky following an impressive 19.3 for June.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey strengthened in July, increasing to 23.9 from 17.8. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to fall to 12.5.
That was the best reading since March 2011. Nearly all sub- indices showed significant improvement in July.Production levels were extremely strong as the Shipments Index increased to 34.2 in July from 15.5 in June. New Order levels improved to 34.2 from 16.8. The Unfilled Orders Index fell to 9.1 from 11.5.
The Number of Employees Index increased to 12.2 in July from 11.9 in June, and the Average Employee Workweek increased to 12.5 from 7.3.
Big Picture
( Raw data available at: http://www.phil.frb.org )
| Category | JUL | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR |
| Total Index | 23.9 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 16.6 | 9.0 |
| 6-month Outlook | 58.1 | 52.0 | 37.4 | 26.6 | 35 |
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Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1949
Resistance S&P 500 1986
Support Levels DOW 16,870
Resistance DOW 17,240
Support Levels QQQ 94.24
Resistance QQQ 97.20
Support Levels NASDAQ 4380
Resistance NASDAQ 4485
Market Strategies Cycles
With help from the continued generosity of the Fed, an improving labor market and generally solid economic and corporate data, stock market performance in 2014 has been gaining momentum. At the midway point this year after a rough start, DJIA is up 3.77% and S&P 500, a little over 7.3%. On the heels of a record-setting 2013, this is a particularly impressive showing for seven months, while economic numbers are lagging..
Following flat first halves, full-month July performance were well above average at 2.1%. In all Julys since 1950, DJIA and S&P 500 averaged gains of 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. However, after July’s surge the market then tended to drift sideways to lower from August through the end of October. At which time a mild fourth quarter rally pulled the market modestly higher.
Dr Jan Vandersande’s technical comments: Option expiration had a bullish effect on the market as it usually does but the rally was not impressive at all. The number of stocks participating is decreasing and the number of new highs are also sharply declining. Most of the gain in the DOW this week was due to the gains in only a hand full of stocks.
The momentum oscillators remained negative all week (showing how weak the rally was early this week) and actually reached a good oversold level on Thursday. The rally on Friday was thus not unexpected at all (besides option expiration). The short term oversold condition has now been relieved.
I took profits on some of my option recommendations on Thursday (XRT, QQQ and IYT) and bought back some put option positions at the close today. Short term cycles predict a low for July 24 (plus or minus a day or 2), then a short rally and then a sell off into August 5-10.
I do not plan to buy any stocks until the low in August.
I do own (and bought some more shares this week) of two BioTechs: AXDX and MRTX. These two have huge upside potential but are very volatile. Insiders own something like 86% of AXDX and a lot of MRTX.
I also bought ETCK which also has big upside potential but is very risky (could go to 0 but that is unlikely). Insiders own over 50% of this one. I own and re bought puts on DIA, QQQ, XRT, XLY, IYT and FAZ.
I am still long the $ (UUP) and short the Euro (EUO) and both have done well. If you bought them when I recommended them you would own them at a nice profit. You can still initiate positions at current levels. I am waiting for more of a pullback in gold before buying it.
Regards Jan
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Crude Oil Prices: On July 16th the front month NYMEX contract for WTI dipped briefly to $99/bbl, and then quickly rebounded to close over $100. On Thursday, the geopolitical risk premium expanded with the downing of the passenger plane over Eastern Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza. WTI closed near $103/bbl on Friday.
The bounce off $99 was significant because that is the mid-point of a very strong trading channel that WTI has been in for over two years. WTI has been above the mid-point of the channel for over six months and there appears to be bias to the upside, primarily because of the terrorist activities in the Middle East and Ukraine. In addition to strong support at $99, there is VERY STRONG support at $96 for WT
Cleveland BioLabs* ( Nasdaq: CBLI ) trading between $ 0.47 and $ 0.50. CBLI got top rankings on Google last Tuesday morning. CBLI is one of the few bio-med stocks that did not participate in the huge rally of Biotechnology/ Pharmaceuticals and is completely overlooked. They are very advanced in cancer research
See Money Info Show CBLI Feature and Interview – Click Here
Rule 17B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton Research has been paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy.
Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton was paid about 500,000 shares of Leo Motors.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street,
Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Visit: www.PrincetonResearch.com
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