February 2, 2015
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Read in .pdf format — Click Here
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2015
Stock Options Trading Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest February 2015
Best Stocks To Buy February 2015
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
2015 Year To Date Profits $ 4,078
Over 40% Returns
2014 Profits = $ 20,443
Over 204% Returns
$20,443 Profits for $10,000 Trading Account
By Following all trades in 2014 a
$10,000 account would be worth $30,443
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High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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$10,000 Trading Account Traders Comments
We have three open long positions:
GILD February 105 Calls
NAT February 11 Calls and
VJET Feb 8 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,150
“WHEN EVERYONE ‘S THINKING THE SAME THING NO ONE IS THINKING”.
… BEN FRANKLIN
Week 4 was a slight gain finishing the month with a gain of $4,087. The funds in use is $1,150, w
ith only 3 small open positions and with 2 of those the remainder of 100% Up Rule.
So, now to the videotape….The market is either rolling over or very close to meaningful support.
The daily and weekly S&P500 charts are at a point where we could see a rally off the December bottoms at 1973, which coincidently is just about the same level as the200- Day Price moving average. There are a lot of people who are calling November to date a Head & Shoulders top
… I can definitely see what they see but I would remind everyone that markets have their own “personality” and the leading formation in the breakouts to new highs for the past 5 years has been a FAILED H&S top. While it’s true that a number of those “seemed” to break and confirm only to hit support (or important moving averages) and start up like a rocket. And of course, everyone is never right.
Last week I warned about the geopolitical issues and the snowstorm causing a vacuum for prices
for at least the first part of the week and we had that in spades.
This week I am looking for charts that are at or near support. The world is clearly racing for
continued 0% interest rate. It also has given the gold market some major support in the
$1235-1250 area.
Also last week I mentioned that I was surprised to see the US dollar strong and the gold up, but
what I had forgotten is that in a 0% world one of the big arguments against gold is gone….it doesn’t pay you to hold it…but withrates around the world near zero, gold looks better, since the worlds’ problems look worse.
BTW, I have been asked by a reader how I manage to get a penny better that the 50% down rule
on some executions (like TBT this week) and frankly, I don’t. Sometimes I will see an option coming to a 50% Rule and I simply look at the spread, as what happened this week. When I felt it was going to break and the spread was $ .43- .45 I went in the middle.
This does not always work to my advantage and I have to lose an additional penny or two. Or as has happened several times we close near a 50% point and gap through it to take a 75% loss….but really, we didn’t make 204% in 2014 counting the one or two pennies on any trades.
New trades will be texted………CAM
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Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
New Trades:
1) Buy 6 XOM March 90 Calls @ $ 1.20 ( Always Or Better )
2) Buy 4 SPY February 197 Calls @ $ 2.30
DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
01/28 | Sold 6 TBT February 43 Calls | 0.44 | 264 | 258 Loss | |
01/26 | Sold 2 GILD February 105 Calls | 5.00 | 1000 | 500 Gain | |
01/21 | Bought 10 NAT February 11 Calls | 0.40 | 400 | ||
01/21 | Sold 5 VJET February 8 Calls |
( Sold Half – 100% Profit Rule )
Leaves 5 lots Long1.00
500
250 Gain01/20Bought 10 VJET February 8 Calls0.50500 01/14Bought 6 TBT February 43 Calls0.87522 01/13Bought 4 GILD February 105 Calls2.501000
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
Dow |
17,164.95
-507.65
-2.87%Nasdaq
4635.24
-122.64
-2.58%S&P 500
1994.99
-56.83
-2.77%Transportation
8649.32
-332.62
-3.70%Russell 2000
1165.39
-23.54
-1.98%Nasdaq100
4148.43
-129.71
-3.03%Gold (spot)
1278.50
-14.10
-1.1%Silver (July)
1720.8
-109.3
-6.0%Crude
48.24
+2.65
+5.8%Heating Oil
170.08
+7.97
+4.9%Unleaded Gas
1.4788
+0.1063
+7.7%Natural Gas
2.691
-0.267
-8.9%VIX
20.97
+4.33
+26.0%Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100
124/100’s
+48/100’sPut/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity
71/100’s
+9/100’s
Bonds
151-09 +1-14
2.28% -0.10%10 Yr. Note
130-28 +1066 1.69% -0.12%
Copper
249.45
-0.70
-0.3%CRB Inflation
Index
218.84
+2.23
+1.0%Barron’s* Confidence
77.3%
-0.4%S&P100
875.80
-27.34
-3.03%5 Yr. Note
121-11 +23
1.22% -0.09 %
Dollar
94.84
-0.15
-0.2%DJ Utilities
637.20
-10.58
-1.63%AAII
Confidence
IndexBullish
44.2%
+7.1%Bearish
22.4%
-8.4%Neutral
33.4%
+1.3%M1 Money Supply
+8.24%
January 19th
M-2 Money
Supply
+6.21%
January 19th
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
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Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1975
Resistance S&P 500 2025
Support Levels DOW 17,050
Resistance DOW 17,480
Support Levels QQQ 99.65
Resistance QQQ 101.90 – 103.03
Support Levels NASDAQ 4575
Resistance NASDAQ 4675 – 4720
Closes below support triggers sales/above highs buys
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and
New Stock Recommendations
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/ (Loss) | |||
ARRY 1000 |
Sold 500 Leaves 5004.78 01/05 7.49 01/23$ 1,355MOS 10045.41 01/05 BAC. Wts 5,000 lots0.7411 12/26 SWHC 5009.81 12/22 12.30 01/29$ 1,245BSBR 5004.84 12/184.54 sco BCRH 30017.50 12/1817.35 sco SAN 6008.40 12/16 SLXP 50100.80 11/25 FB 10074.18 11/24 XCO 12003.10 11/28 INO 5009.92 11/17 AA 50014.21 10/16 FCX 15034.99 09/09 NBG 300 2.95 05/19 XRGYF 5000*0.407 03/14 RPTP 40015.37 01/16 NBG 3004.088/12 TEXQY* 2006.567/11 REPR* 50000.2210/22/12.12 sco
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
Additional trades and stop losses will be Texted and e-Mailed
New Options Trades:
1) Buy 12 XOM March 90 Calls @ $ 1.20
2) Buy 8 SPY February 197 Calls @ $ 2.30
There were two closed long option positions making a hypothetical profit of $ 484.
There was one closed out stock position, the 500 shares of Smith and Wesson ( SWHC ) position making a net profit of $ 1,729.
For the full year to date, we have gains of $ 10,629.
Open position losses increased to $ 8,200.
There are three long Open Options positions:
GILD February 105 Calls,
NAT Feb 11 Calls
VJET Feb 8 Calls
and the written or short ARRY Calls against the 500 shares long.
The Stock table has the following remaining 18 positions:
AA, ARRY, BAC.B.WS, BCRH, BSBR, FB, FCX, INO, MOS,
NBG (2), REPR, RPTP, SAN, SLXP, TEXQY, XCO, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of
$ 69,486 for 18 open stock positions plus three option long positions requiring
$ 1,875 totaling
$ 71,361leaving
$ 28,639 in cash.
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from Apple, JP Morgan, Santander, Blue Capital Reinsurance and others. We do not count commission costs and all trading once again is hypothetical.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
ARRY Feb 7 |
5 lots SOLDCalls 0.85
Short Against long stock position01/23/15$ 425 CreditNAT February 11
20 lotsCalls
0.4001/21/15 VJET February 8
20 lots
10 remain OpenCalls
0.5001/20/151.00
Sold Half on 50% Profit Rule01/21/15$ 500TBT February 43
12 lotsCalls
0.8701/14/150.44
( Sold on 50% Stop-Loss Rule )01/28/15( $ 516 )GILD Feb 105
8 lotsCalls
2.5001/13/155.00
Sold Half on 100% Profit-Rule01/26/15$ 1000
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
Earnings Reports Before the Open on Top of the Row; After the Close are Below the Economics Numbers.
Monday | Avery Dennison ( AVY 0.80 vs 0.69 ) Exxon Mobil ( XOM 1.34 vs 1.91 ) Sysco |
( SYY 0.41 vs 0.40 ) Tenneco ( TEN 1.01 vs 0.96 )
08:30 hrs Personal Income Dec ( 0.3% vs 0.4% )
Personal Spending ( -0.2% vs 0.6% )
CORE- PCE Prices ( 0.0% vs 0.0% )
10:00 hrs ISM Index January ( 54.7 vs 55.1 )
10:00 hrs Construction Spending Dec ( 0.8% vs -0.3% )
Anadarko Petroleum ( APC 0.84 vs 0.74 ) CareFusion ( CFN 0.79 vs 0.54 ) Owens Illinois ( OI 0.46 vs 0.51 ) Rent A Center ( RCII 0.61 vs 0.25 )TuesdayArch Coal ( ACI -0.38 vs -0.45 ) AutoNation ( AN 0.91 vs 0.83 )
10:00 hrs Factory Orders Dec ( -0.2% vs -0.7% )
14:00 hrs Auto Sales Jan ( NA vs 5.9 Mln )
Truck Sales Jan ( NA vs 7.9 Mln )
Chipotle ( CMG 3.79 vs 2.53 ) Gilead Sciences ( GILD 2.22 vs 0.55 ) Jack Henry ( JKHY 0.68 vs 0.61 ) Silgan ( SLGN 0.56 vs 0.45 ) Unum Group( UNM 0.88 vs 0.85) Walt Disney ( DIS 1.07 vs 1.04 ) Wynn Resorts ( WYNN 1.45 vs 2.27 )WednesdayAllergan ( AGN 1.83 vs 1.35 ) Arkansas Best ( ARCB 0.44 ) Clorox ( CLX 0.90 vs Same ) Gen Motors ( GM 0.83 vs 0.67 ) Humana ( HUM 1.15 vs -0.19 ) Level 3 ( LVLT 0.26 vs 0.06 ) Merck ( MRK 0.86 vs 0.88 ) Polo Ralph Lauren ( RL 2.52 vs 2.57 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 01/24 ( NA vs -3.2% )
08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change Jan ( 230K vs 241K )
10:00 hrs ISM Services Jan ( 56.5 vs Same )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 01/31 ( NA vs + 8.874 Mln Bbls )
21st Century Fox ( FOXA 0.42 vs 0.33 ) O’Reilly Auto ( ORLY 1.67 vs 1.40 )ThursdayBecton Dickinson ( BDX 1.44 vs 1.37 ) Cummins ( CMI 2.51 vs 2.32 ) Dunkin Brands ( DNKN 0.47 vs 0.43 ) Gartner ( IT 0.80 vs 0.67 ) Michael Kors ( KORS 1.33 vs 1.11 ) Nu-Skin ( NUS 0.80 vs 2.02 ) Snap-)n ( SNA 1.79 vs 1.60 )
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts Jan ( NA vs + 6.6% )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 1/31 ( 290K vs 265K )
Continuing Claims 01/24 ( 2375K vs 2385K )
08:30 hrs Trade Balance Dec ( -$38.0B vs -$39.0B )
08:30 hrs Productivity-Preliminary 4th Qtr ( 0.2% vs 2.3% )
Unit Labor Costs 4th Qtr ( +1.2% vs -1.0% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 01/31 ( NA vs -94 bcf )
Activism ( ATVI 0.88 vs 0.79 ) Expedia ( EXPE 1.01 vs 0.92 ) Linkedln ( LNKD 0.53 vs 0.39 ) Twitter ( TWTR 0.06 vs 0.02 ) Telp ( 0.24 vs -0.03 )FridayCBOE Holdings ( CBOE 0.66 vs 0.52 ) Marsh McLennan ( MMC 0.66 vs 0.54 )
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls Jan ( 235K vs 252K )
Private Payrolls ( 225K vs 240K )
Unemployment Rate Jan ( 5.6% vs Same )
Hourly Earnings +0.3% vs -0.2% )
Average Workweek Jan ( 34.6 hrs vs Same )
15:00 hrs Consumer Credit Dec ( +$15.0Bln vs $ 14.1Bln )
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Investors are nervous over the prospect of slower global growth and that stock prices might be too high.
The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 17,164.95, off 252 points or 1.45% for the day and 507.65 points or 2.87%for the week making a new six-week low. The S&P 500 lost 56.83 points for the week or 2.77%. It fell 26.26 points the last 90 minutes of trading on Friday to 1,994.99, a decline of 1.3% testing again the 150-day price moving average. Bonds were very strong making new all-time highs. Gold also rallied in a tepid fashion, more of a condescending bounce than a rally.
The GDP increased just 2.4% for the 4th Qtr, a huge disappointment to the markets which finished the week on a losing note. The Export deficit increased by $ 40.1bln, from $431.4bln to $471.5bln.
The very strong dollar accompanied by economic weakness around the world caused a full point loss on the GDP. Exports increased 2.8%, but imports increased by a whopping 8.9%. Businesses also reined in capital spending particularly on equipment. Government spending also declined by 2.2%. The entire government spending decline can be attributed to a 12.5% drop in defense spending.
The TLT, the 20-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond Fund soared making a new all-time high at 138.28, up 3.51 points for the week or +2.6%. For the new- year already with just a month gone by the treasuries are up 9.8% or 12.36 points, having gone from a close December 31st at 125.92.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The entire GDP growth in the fourth quarter came primarily from consumption as the lower oil prices and higher wages spurred confidence. Consumption spending increased 4.3%. This was the largest quarterly increase since the First QTR of 2006. Households went on a spending spree encouraged by a surge in hiring and a slide in gasoline prices. Hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3%, which would be the largest monthly gain in at least ten years. These results will be confirmed next Friday from the Monthly Employment Report.
Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
GDP | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | -2.1% | 3.5% |
Inventories (change) | $113.1B | $82.2B | $84.8B | $35.2B | $81.8B |
Final Sales | 1.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | -1.0% | 3.9% |
PCE | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 3.7% |
Nonresidential Inv. | 1.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 1.6% | 10.4% |
Structures | 2.6% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 12.8% |
Equipment | -1.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% | -1.0% | 14.1% |
Intellectual Property | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% |
Residential Inv. | 4.1% | 3.3% | 8.8% | -5.3% | -8.5% |
Net Exports | -$471.5B | -$431.4B | -$460.4B | -$447.2B | -$384.0B |
Export | 2.8% | 4.6% | 11.1% | -9.2% | 10.0% |
Imports | 8.9% | -0.9% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
Government | -2.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | -0.8% | -3.8% |
GDP Price Index | 0.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
Stocks and ETF’s bought over the past few weeks:
Notice the Flexibility for whatever the market direction. Both the VIX and SPXU protect against declines while the UDOW and various stocks are from the long side. Last week the long UDOW was stopped out at 131 for a $ 2,619 profit. We remain long both the SPXU reverse S&P and the VXX volatility ETF ( VIX ). The Kroger made $ 1810, DuPont $ 899 and Deere $ 835 and were all sold the last week. The Exon ( XOM: $ 90.89 ) was stopped out at $ 91 for a break-even the previous week. We were stopped out of the AMGN for a $ 400 loss. We remain long Alcoa, Mosaic, Smith and Wesson and the XLV the Health Care spider with the stop getting close. In addition we are long the DSX and Scorpio Shippers. ( All trading is hypothetical and intended as guidance)
Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss |
Or soldXLVHealth Care SpiderETF 69.277068.20scoAMGNAmgen, IncBiotechnology175.85121B152.26158154scoSWHCSmith and Wesson Holding CorpFirearms; Handguns Metal Processing8.50.93527.3712.309.81 AAAlcoaAluminum and Metals14.300.817.53B15.6514.5714.60DSXDiana ShippingDry Cargo ShippingN/A3.76116.646.605.90STNGScorpio TankersOil Transportation265.61.47B7.877.467.48KRKrogerRetail Food170.2424.6K67. Sell now48.9046XOMExxon MobilEnergy13.41.1420K87.4290.5091 scoUALUnited Cont HldTransportation161.218.1K73.104648UDOWUltra Pro Dow 30ETF 137.17104.81
$ 2619 profit131 stopped outJohn DeereFarm Equipment9.40.8029.0K88.35 sold last week80
$835 profit84.30scoSPXUUltra Short S&PHedge purposes 41.1243.2038scoDDDuPontChemicals211.7161.3K73.79 sold last week64.8073scoVXXVIX VolatilityHedge Portfolio 36.8727.1026MOSMosaic CompanyAgriculture Chemicals702.1015.3K48.6942.2843.70
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
RMS Medical Systems, Inc ( REPR 0.39 )*
Has doubled this year already and can double again .
RMS designs, markets, manufactures portable easy to operate infusion devices, including needles and tubing. It is easy to handle by patients. The Freedom 60 is being marketed in Europe as well as gaining a footing among home-care professionals in America. The RescueVac is used in ambulances and planes for emergency suction.
Southern ITS (SITS: $ 0.08 )*
Southern ITS delivers proprietary innovative electronic security systems to highly regulated market sectors. Such installations include Gaming Properties, Medical Marijuana (MMJ) dispensaries and similar businesses with high compliance mandates. Their systems go beyond simple security and are designed to support their clients in dealing with the expanding burden of compliance and financial auditing. Greeniosk is complete system that allows Medical Marijuana (MMJ) Dispensaries and Recreational Marijuana (MJ) Dispensaries to document and provide an audit and verification trail of each individual MMJ/MJ dispensary transaction.
The majority of MMJ Dispensaries have limited bank service access mainly due to requirements of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO). The Greeniosk system incorporates a large physical ATM Kiosk, with a state of the art CRM reporting system that provides a detailed financial transaction audit trail and addresses and resolves issues of the propriety of the dispensary operations. MMJ Dispensaries currently transact between $250,000 and $5,000,000 in annual revenues. The majority consist of cash transactions, however small numbers of dispensaries accept debit card payments. Because RICO concerns cause the majority of banks to decline dispensary deposits, they also miss out on potential MMJ credit card transactions
The Grilled Cheese Truck, Inc. (OTCQB: GRLD $ 2.85 )*
Cooks, sells, serves and promotes specialty grilled cheese sandwiches. Since 2009, The Grilled Cheese Truck has been serving areas of Southern California and Phoenix, AZ. David Danhi is an Executive Chef and began the company after spending thirty years in the food industry.
Grilled cheese is gaining popularity as a classic comfort food right along with pizza. The Grilled Cheese Truck is the only known gourmet food truck that has gone public and is the first and one of the largest gourmet grilled cheese truck in the U.S. The Company has 13 trucks and growing The Company has 13 trucks and its growth is legendary in L.A. The Grilled Cheese Truck was one of the premier gourmet food trucks to appear on the L.A. scene 5 years ago. Chef Danhi wanted to capitalize on the growing demand for food trucks and is recognized for his food crafting and grill cheese creations, such as the signature sandwich, “Cheesy Mac and RIB”. The grilled cheese sandwiches are slowly toasted, buttered and crispy, touted as the “ultimate grilled cheese sandwich”.
January ends with the commencement of the Company trading on OTCQB and the introduction of new CEO, Al Hodges. Hodges brings 35 yrs. of operations, management and restaurant experience. He has a track record for success as a performance driven executive who implements successful business plans. From concept to expansion, Hodges has built a series of successful businesses and driven up company value. The Grilled Cheese Truck has become a widely recognized name and has
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: NYSE: $ 3.15 )
F2015 (July) got off to a solid start with Q1 (Oct) results continuing to affirm our belief that Enzo’s core businesses are improving. Once again, revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA were all better than projected, with revenue growth in both the clinical lab and life sciences businesses. Gross margin in both businesses continued to improve, as the ongoing shift toward higher value molecular testing and efforts to improve operational efficiency continue to bolster margins. The company’s balance sheet remains on good footing while catalysts in the form of new products and litigation remain in play. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating and $7 price target.
What keeps us excited about ENZ is (1) a clinical lab which is highly attractive to numerous strategic buyers; (2) a proprietary molecular diagnostic technology that could cut the cost of molecular testing by about 50%; and (3) IP litigation that could yield hundreds of millions of dollars over time.
Market Strategies Cycles
Down January Not Death Knell for Wall Street | By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal |
Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered eight major errors since 1950 for an 87.7% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the eight major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August. Two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001.The market in January 2003 was held down by the anticipation of military action in Iraq. The second worst bear market since 1900 ended in March of 2009 and Federal Reserve intervention influenced 2010 and 2014. The eight flat years yields a .754 batting average.
It’s official; our January Barometer indicator is negative again for the second year in a row and 5 of the last 8 years. Since the start of the secular bear market in 2000 January has been down 7 of the last 15 years with an average loss of 1.2% on the S&P and Dow and a fractional gain of 0.1% for NASDAQ. Five of the indicators eight major errors have occurred in this 15-year timeframe as mentioned above.
All of the major errors have occurred in secular bears, so if we still are in a secular bear market, which we contend we are; perhaps we can find some solace in this fact. We are continually reevaluating the efficacy of the January Barometer as we do with all indicators, market cycles and seasonal patterns. But it is way too early to relegate the JB to the indicator graveyard. It’s .754 batting average is solid.
Nevertheless, the market action so far this year is disconcerting. But we are not rushing for the exits. Technically the market has held support at the 200-day moving averages and is only down 5% or so. In the face of all the red numbers NASDAQ is only down 4% from the December high. There has been a broad mix of positive and negative data and news and the market is clearly jittery.
The new Republican controlled Congress is preparing to battle a lame duck president as the 2016 election campaign is already beginning with players are jockeying for positon. Russia is in shambles as they threaten to destabilize Europe and ISIS is still terrorizing the world, etc. However, while GDP growth missed estimates it was still growth. Earnings have been better than the headlines and the US economy looks OK, not great, but OK.
It is highly likely we will have another bear market that begins sometime in the next three years, perhaps even this year. It just does not appear to be happening now. So while we expect the upside to resume, this negative January Barometer has made us more cautious. We will be watching for the Dow’s December closing low to hold and looking for technical, fundamental and macro breakdowns. The Federal Reserve’s continuing super-easy monetary policy continues to hold sway over the market, but with QE over in the USA and a rate increase on horizon, extreme prejudice is in order.
Also of note, this is the first time since 1950 our January Indicator Trifecta has registered a down Santa Claus Rally, an up First Five Days and a down January Barometer.
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street,
Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Fax: (702) 697-8944