Where To Invest April 2017
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April 3, 2017
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Where To Invest April 2017
Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Proven Trading Success
Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:
105% Profits on XOM Calls in 3 Days
50% Loss on NUGT Calls in 10 Days
50% Loss on SJM Calls in 7 Days
117% Profits on GLD Calls in 3 days
50% Loss on GLD Calls in 20 days
62% Profits on XOM Calls in 20 days
50% Loss on HL Calls in 2 Days
50% Profits on PFE Calls in 2 Days
50% Loss on SPY Puts in 2 Days
50% Loss on TWTR Calls in 8 Days
31% Profits TWTR Calls in 2 Days
316% Profits on MOS Calls in 13 Days
154% Profits on MOS Calls in 11 Days
100% Profits on MOS Calls in 8 Days
50% Loss on FB Puts in 3 Days
47% Loss on K Calls in 2 Days
87% Profits on AMZN Calls in 2 Days
96% Profits on K Calls in 17 Days
16% Profits on HOG Calls in 8 Days
108% Profits on MOS Calls in 16 Days
91% Profits on MOS Calls in 15 Days
These are all of our most recent trades. This presents are ability to limit losses and maximize gains to deliver strong returns to our trade alert members.
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Where To Invest Options Trading Service
Options Trade Alerts
Charles Moskowitz Traders Discussion
Open Positions:
Long 6 VRX April 12.50 Calls
Long 3 XOM April
Funds in Use $ 1,796
Week 13 had a small gain of $14, although it was generated by our XOM 4/82 calls position which also has an additional open gain. We have 4 open positions including the XOM, GS, VRX, and OIH. Total funds in use are $1,796 and YTD gains are $2,695.
The week was a series of gains, but divergent in itself. While the Transports had a gain of just over 2%, the Industrials were only up 0.32%. While the S&P was higher by only 0.80% the Russell was 2.3% higher. As discussed last month, this represents the continuing rotation in the appetite of investors that change not quarter to quarter or even month to month, but almost weekly. While the market bounced off its Monday low and rallied to close over 250 higher, the A.A.I.I. sentiment numbers continued to fall on the bullish side and are now back down (page 3) by 5.1% and are again 22% under long term average while the bearish number grew by 6.9% and is over 20% the average. These are not absolute predictors, but it is rare to have a major correction in either direction without excessive numbers. Right now we continue to have sharp (generally news related) selloffs and after a short consolidation, returns to new highs. As long as we don’t get excessively bullish (high 40’s) it’s unlikely to happen.
Beyond that, the geopolitical environment seems to be under control. Just after the election I said that Trump would make mistakes on the unintended consequences of his actions and that has happened to some extent. However, the upside is that any even minor gains he makes or accomplishments reinvigorates both his base and the markets. While Trump is at best naïve, and definitely out of his depth in the ways of Washington, he has been successful in several distinctly different and diverse areas of business, and frankly the D.C. learning curve is a lot steeper than anything he has encountered. To dismiss his ability to learn and even excel would be a huge mistake, and it seems like this market is still leaning towards the positive at every turn.
My humble opinion is that with or without the “nuclear option” in the Senate rules, he will get his Supreme Court approval for Gorsuch and will focus on winnable, bipartisan issues in the near future. If so, the market could roar ahead.
If the current stabilization in oil continues and the US$ and 10yr treasuries remain in their current trading ranges this only adds fuel to the fire…CAM
Investing Trade Alerts Summary
$10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 03/31 | Bought 10 OIH April 31.50 Calls | 0.43 | 430 | ||
| 03/30 | Sold 3 XOM April 82 Calls
( 100% Profit Rule ) |
1.52 | 456 | 234 Gain | |
| 03/27 | Bought 4 GS April 232.50 Calls | 1.51 | 604 | ||
| 03/27 | Bought 6 XOM April 82 Calls | 0.74 | 444 | ||
| 03/27 | Sold 10 NUGT March 31st 9.50 Calls
( 50% Loss Rule ) |
0.23 | 230 | 220 Loss | |
| 03/17 | Bought 10 NUGT March 31st 9.50 Calls | 0.45 | 450 | ||
| 03/13 | Bought 6 VRX April 12.50 Calls | 0.90 | 540 |
Follow our trades to know where to invest to make profits in today’s market.
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This Princeton Research, Inc. publication features:
- Investment Alerts Trade Analysis and Discussion
Head Trader, Charles Moskowitz, reviews trades made, what he is watching now, analysis of where he sees
things going and where to investing now in the coming week.
- Investing Trade Alerts Trade Table, Positions and Performance Summaries
See where we are invested and our performance for the week. This includes trading tables and positions
showing profits and losses for the week.
- Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
The Market Laboratory table provides a fast overview guide, giving our readers a great analysis of market
sentiment and the general prevailing attitude of investors. This continues to be a strong, solid indicator of where to invest now.
- Market Strategies Technical Information
This great where to invest now market analysis tool allows you to quickly see, at a glance, support and resistance
levels for the major indexes;
Dow, S&P 500, QQQ, Transports and NASDAQ
- Our Stock and Options Trading Accounts Trade Tables, Positionsand Performance Summaries
See where we are invested and our performance for the week. This includes trading tables and positions
showing profits and losses for the week.
We cover both a $10,000 trading portfolio and a $100,000 trading portfolio. These benchmark levels provide a
guideline, enabling our members to scale their investment level amounts up or down depending on the capital they have and are comfortable
investing.
- Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
See coverage of the undervalued, small cap, lower priced stocks we follow. These companies have innovative,
life enhancing technologies. They possess the potential to produce significant price upward swings, giving investors big profit returns.
- Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
We use fundamental analysis we select top stocks to buy now. Buying these stocks while using stops to protect
capital, continues to produce solid, strong profits for us.
- This Weeks’ Economic Numbers, Earnings Releases and MediaData
See this week’s coming earnings report and economics information. This information provides a tremendous
advantage in pin pointing stocks that can perform or drop due to earnings reports.
The economic data keeps us up to date on the most important daily where to invest now information coming
out.
- Market StrategiesFundamentals
Fundamental analysis of industries, top stocks, the economy and the markets together with US and World events
provides great insight into where the next investment winners will be.
- Market Strategies EconomicData
Our in-depth analysis of current economic data projects where the economy and the market is going showing us
which sectors and companies in them are the strongest investments now.
- Market Cycles
Our in-depth analysis of market cycles, which are known among top traders as “The Key To Maximum
Returns”.
- Trader’s Almanac
This daily Calendar of Market and Economic Events quickly shows, at a glance, important economic, market and trading events for the month.
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A Sample of the Where To Invest Now Newsletter
Information Our Members Get Follows
Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops
Using fundamentals the following are stocks to trade hypothetically. They have done well. We have taken numerous profits as indicated on the table below. Balance is critical.
We want to be long Alcoa AA at $ 32.00 which is coming into support.
Flushing Financial FFIC fell below the 50 day price moving average. We are long FFIC at $ 19.10 and are holding long the Flushing Financial. Bank stocks are to be bought in this reaction phase after having continued bullish into the new-year.
You must use your own discretion on whether to take profits.
Boeing has gone to $ 182, above the previous high at $ 169.80-170.00, surging from a new high in defense stocks. We remain long. Boeing is on its way to $ 200.
We are disappointed with our long Bristol Myers which should have been bought at $56.20. We originally bought BMY at $ 49.20 back on October 17th, sold on stop at 55.45 December 7th.
We re-bought Hecla HL at 5.24, which had been stopped out profitably at $ 5.64 on Dec 15th.
Stay long Hecla.
Sell the ENZ ; looking to take profits.
The HDGE is not relevant at this time.
We are looking to buy the GSCI symbol GSG, a commodity indexed fund managed by Goldman.
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy or Sell Limit | Stop Loss
Or offset |
| AMZN | Amazon | Catalog & Mail Order | 189 | 2.90 | 394B | 886.54
Long |
Sell on stop | 829x |
| SIMO | Silicon Motion | Semiconductor solutions for mobile storage and communications | 9.7 | 2.5 | 1.39B | 46.75 | 39.10
01/28/17 |
41.40x |
| CIO | City Office
REIT |
Real Estate Investment Trust high quality Offices | 292 | 5.8 | 396Mln | 12.15 | 12.52
01/28/17 |
12.10x stopped out 03/09/17 |
| GSG | GSCI | Commodity Indexed Fund | 14.82 | 14.50 stopped out 3/09/17 | 14.50x | |||
| TPC | Tutor Perini | Construction | 12 | 0.25 | 1.3B | 31.80 | 19.40
10/31/16 |
28.90x new stop loss |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | Discount Airline | 13 | 1.6 | 3.6B | 53.07 | 48.10 | 51.00 stopped out |
| BMY | Bristol Myers | Biopharmaceutical Products | 28 | 5.1 | 94.9B | 54.38
|
Sell at 52.80x
|
Bought 56.20
03/08/17 |
| BA | Boeing | Aerospace, commercial jetliners, military systems | 14 | 0.85 | 81B | 176.86 | Long at
132 10/04/16 |
New stop loss at $ 174 |
| HL | Hecla Mining | Basic Materials | 44 | 3.61 | 1.7B | 5.29 | Long at 5.24 3/3/17
Sold at $4.84 |
4.85x Needs to stay above $ 5 to be long |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | Bank Holding company Savings and loans | 13 | 3,5 | 592Mln | 26.87 | 19.10
06/27 |
24.65x |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum Processing and Technology | N/A | 0.4 | 9.5B | 34.40 | 21.15 originally bought 2/8/16 | Sold at 37.89 Re-Bought at 34.40 3/10/17 |
| ENZ | Enzo Biochem | Life Sciences | NA | 1.35 | 134M | 8.37 | Bought
at 5.13 10/7/16 |
Sell at $ 6.46 stop |
| BAC | Bank of America | Commercial Bank | 10 | 2.02 | 165.3B | 23.59
|
Bought at 15.42
9/30/16 |
23.60x stopped out on 3/21/17 |
| HDGE | Advisor Shares | Ranger Bear ETF | 8.80
|
Stopped out at 9.01
2/10 /17 |
Must close above 9.01 to be long : |
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
|
Symbol
|
Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/
(Loss) |
||
| VRX 200 | 11.08 | 03/16 | |||||
| VRX 400 | 12.12 | 03/13 | |||||
| NUGT 300 | 8.92 | 03/13 | |||||
| ANW 500 | 10.05 | 02/22 | |||||
| GDX 150 | 20.99 | 12/05 | |||||
| GDX 150 | 20.65 | 12/05 | |||||
| RWM 100 | 50.60 | 11/21 | |||||
| SPXU 200 | 22.88 | 11/14 | |||||
| CTL 150 | 23.29 | 11/04 | |||||
| AMBA 100 | 63.75 | 10/13 | |||||
| MOS 200 | 27.53 | 05/02 | |||||
| EYES 500 | 5.04 | 04/04 | |||||
| EYES 1000 | 6.49 | 12/28 | |||||
| TWTR 200 | 28.51 | 10/28 | |||||
| MOS 100 | 43.55 | 08/14 | |||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | |||||
| TEXQY 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | |||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | |||||
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
There were two closed options positions;
20 NUGT March 31st $9.50 Calls losing $ 440 and the
6 XOM April 82 Calls gaining $ 468 on the 100% profit rule.
The net was again of $ 28.
For the entire last two years on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits increased by $ 28 to $38,122.
Open trade losses decreased by $ 561 from $14,243 to $13,682.
The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.
The Stock table has the following 18 positions:
AMBA, ANW, CTL, EYES( 2 ), GDX ( 2 ), MOS ( 2 ), NUGT, REPR, RWM, SAN, SPXU, TEXQY, TWTR ( VRX 2 ) :
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.
Money management is based on a hypothetical $ 100,000.
The 18 stock positions would cost $ 72,542.
The options positions require $3,592.
when combined equals $76,134,
which leaves excess cash of $ 23,866
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, Mosaic, North American Tankers, STNG and Santander, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.
The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/
(Loss) |
| OIH April 31.50
20 lots |
Calls
0.43 |
03/31/17 | |||
| GS April 232.50
8 lots |
Calls
1.51 |
03/27/17 | |||
| XOM April 82
6 lots remain |
Calls
0.74 |
03/27/17 | 1.52 | 03/30/2017 | $ 468 |
| NUGTMar31st9.50
20 lots |
Calls
0.45 |
03/17/17 | 0.23
( 50 % Loss Rule ) |
03/27/2017 | ( $ 440 ) |
| VRX April 12.50
12 lots |
Calls
0.90 |
03/13/17 |
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow
20,663.22 +66.50 +0.32% |
Nasdaq
5911.74 +83.00 +1.42% |
S&P 500
2362.72 +18.74 +0.80% |
Transportation
9116.51 +187.73 +2.10% |
Russell 2000
1385.92 +31.28 +2.31% |
Nasdaq100
5436.23 +72.24 +1.35% |
| Gold (spot)
1247.30 -0.90 -0.1% |
Silver
1727.3 +34.0 +2.0% |
Crude
50.60 +2.63 +5.5% |
Heating Oil
150.39 -1.12 -0.7% |
Unleaded Gas
161.48 -0.06 -0.1% |
Natural Gas
3.153 +0.153 +5.0% |
| VIX
12.37 -0.59 -4.6% |
Put/Call Ratios
S&P 100 99/100’s -7/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios
CBOE Equity 57/100’s -14/100’s
|
Bonds
150-27 -0-07 3.00% Flat |
10 Yr. Note
124-18 +0-02 2.38%-0.01%
|
Copper
265.25 +2.05 +0.8% |
| CRB Inflation
Index 185.88. +2.41 +1.3% |
Barron’s* Confidence
77.4 +0.8 |
S&P100
1046.06 +6.98 +0.67% |
5 Yr. Note
117-23+0.01 1.92% -0.01%
|
Dollar
100.56 +0.79 +0.8% |
DJ Utilities
697.28 -8.67 -1.23% |
| AAII
Confidence Index
Average |
Bullish
30.2% -5.1%
38.4% |
Bearish
37.4% +6.9%
30.30% |
Neutral
32.4% -1.8%
30.96% |
M1 Money
Supply +8.33%
Mar 20th |
M2 Money
Supply +6.94%
Mar 20th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support/Resistance Levels: SUPPORT RESISTANCE
S&P 500 2322 2410
Dow 20,400 20,880
QQQ 128.80 133.30
Transports 88.60 9190
NASDAQ 57.70 5965
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers
Earnings Releases and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row;
After the close below the Economics Information
| MONDAY | Sphere 3D ( -0.12 vs -0.10 )
10:00 hrs ISM Index March ( 57.0 vs 57.7 ) 10:00 hrs Construction Spending February ( + 1.0% vs -1.0% ) 14:00 hrs Auto Sales March ( NA vs 4.67 Mln Units ) 14:00 hrs Truck Sales March ( NA vs 9.28 Mln Units )
|
| TUESDAY | Acuity Brands AYI ( 1.84 vs 1.80 ) Conn’s CONN ( -0.17 vs 0.11 ) Int’l Speedway ISCA
( 0.45 vs 0.44 ) Vince Holding VNCE ( -0.05 vs 0.01 )
08:30 hrs Trade Balance February ( -$44.7Bln vs -$48.5Bln ) 10:00 hrs Factory Orders February ( +0.9% vs + 1.2% )
A Schulman SHLM ( 0.30 vs 0.31 ) Landec LNDC ( 0.18 vs 0.01 ) |
| WEDNESDAY | Greenbrier GBX ( 0.86 vs 1.41 ) Monsanto MON ( 2.79 vs 2.42 ) Jamba JMBA ( -0.07 vs -0.28 ) Invitation Homes INVH ( -0.07 ) Walgreens Boot Alliance WBA ( 1.36 vs 1.31 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Applications Index 04/01 ( NA vs -0.8% ) 08:15 hrs ADP Employment Change March ( + 175K vs + 298K ) 10:00 hrs ISM Services March ( 57.0 vs 57.6 ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 04/01 ( NA vs +0.87 MlnBbls ) 14:00 hrs FOMC Minutes for 03/15 meeting Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY ( 1.78 vs 1.85 ) Fortuna Silver Mines FSM ( 0.06 vs 0.00 ) Resources Connection RECN ( 0.14 vs 0.16 ) Yum China YUMC ( 0.38 ) |
| THURSDAY | CarMax KMX ( 0.79 vs 0.74 ) Constellation Brands STZ ( 1.36 vs 1.19 ) Fred’s FRED ( -0.16 vs 0.07 ) Perrigo PRGO ( 1.78 vs 1.80 ) RPM International RPM ( 0.11 vs 0.14 ) Schnitzer Steel SCHN ( 0.27 vs -0.25 ) MSC Industrial MSM ( 0.90 vs 0.80 ) Hooker Furniture HOFT 0.66 vs 0.38 Lamb Weston LW ( 0.53 )
07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts March ( NA vs -40.0% ) 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 03/25 ( 245K vs 258K ) 08:30 hrs GDP 4th Qtr 3rd estimate ( + 2.0% vs + 1.9% ) 08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 03/18 ( NA vs 2000K ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 03/25 ( NA vs -150 bcf )
NantKwest NK (-0.16 vs-0.55 )Price Smart PSMT( 0.89 vs 0.85 )WD-40 WDFC 0.90 v 0.94 |
| FRIDAY |
08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls March ( 180K vs 235K ) Nonfarm Private Payrolls March ( 175K vs 227K ) Unemployment Rate March ( 4.7% vs 4.7% ) Average Hourly Earnings March ( + 0.3% vs + 0.2% ) Average Workweek March ( 34.4 hrs vs 34.4hrs ) 10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories Feb ( 0.4% vs -0.2% ) 10:00 hrs Consumer Credit Feb ( $14.0Bln vs $8.8Bln )
The U.S. Oil Rig Count increased by 10 Rigs to 662. The Nat Gas Rig count increased by 5 rigs making a total of 160 and there is two rigs listed as miscellaneous making a total US rig count of 824. Crude closed higher at $ 50.60, up $ 2.63.The total rig count is up for the tenth consecutive week-,up 323 rigs from March, 2016. Natural Gas closed the week up $ 0.15 or +5.0% At $ 3.153.. |
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Stocks rebounded sharply reversing the downward action of the previous week. The Russell 2000 led the way with a substantial gain of 30.65 points or + 2.3%. The Nasdaq gained 83 points a 1.4% bounce bringing its gain to 9.8%, its best quarter since 2013.The S&P 500 added 19 points to 2362.72, while the Dow added 66.50 points or + 4.6% for the quarter to 20663.22, its sixth straight quarter of gains. The S&P 500 index gained 5.5% to 2,362.72. The markets were less concerned about the GOP’s failure to compromise on health care reform as they were a week ago Friday. Yesterday’s negatives can turn in to todays’ positives. The presidential election of pro-business Donald Trump raises prospects for increased growth and more new jobs in the U.S.
Investors kicked off the week cautiously as it remains largely unclear how the failure to reform the Health Care Act will impact forward expectations of a tax cut stimulus.
In addition, investors were also starting to question the new administration’s ability to find middle ground with some of the more conservative Republicans in Congress. This issue will certainly manifest itself in the debate on tax reform as the party remains divided on the need to include a border adjustment tax in the overall fiscal overhaul. The markets seemed to ignore less bullish
Trump expectations.
Crude oil took center stage in the middle of the week following a bullish inventory report from the EIA and rumors that the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut may be extended beyond June. The energy component went on a three-day rally while the energy sector helped the stock market finish slightly higher on Wednesday and Thursday.
Equities closed out the week, and the quarter, with a flat showing on Friday that kept the S&P 500 inside an eight-point range.
| Index | Started Week | Ended Week | Change | % Change | YTD % |
| DJIA | 20596.72 | 20663.22 | 66.50 | 0.3 | +4.6 |
| Nasdaq | 5828.74 | 5911.74 | 83.00 | 1.4 | 9.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2343.98 | 2362.72 | 18.74 | 0.8 | +5.5 |
| Russell 2000 | 1355.13 | 1385.78 | 30.65 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| DJT | 8928.78 | 9132.63 | 203.85 | 2.3 | +1.0
|
US Dollar ( DXYO: 100.51 ) +0.74 +0.7% rallied back to the 50 day price moving average resistance.
Volatility ( VIX: $12. 37 ) -0.59 or – 4.6%: Volatility has fallen down to the lows which is supportive of a higher stock prices.
CBOE OEX Volatility Index (VXO-X : 10.47 ) -2.87 or – 21.5% sold off on four consecutive down days Monday through Thursday making a low at 9.77 before rebounding to 10.47.
The UVXY, ($ 18.22 + 1.90 or -11.3%; the Pro-Shares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF has collapsed again supportive of a bull market.
Crude OIL ( $50.60 ) + $ 2.63 or + 5.5% a bear market rally giving a little impetus to stocks. The U.S. Oil Fund ( OIL : $ 10.64 ) + $ 0.55 or + 5.5% needs to clear $ 10.96-99 its 200 and 50-day moving averages.
S&P Retail Index (XRT: $42.24+- $ 1.14 or +2.8% rebounded to just 18 points below the 50 day moving average strong resistance at about 42.85 from very oversold conditions .S&P 500 ( SPY: $ 2362.72 ) needs to hold at its 50 day moving average at about 2338 and then challenge the highs made March 1st at 2401.
Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT: $9,116.51 ) + 187.73 or + 2.1% rebounded nicely almost recapturing the lost ground of the previous week. The Tranny is especially sensitive to America’s slow growth economy. The Tranny ETF ( IYT: 163.99 ) needs to hold 160.60, the low made on March 22nd, and establish a new bullish case pattern. The base, if established, should then be able to propel a move that takes out resistance at the 50 day moving average at 167.15, which was the high on March 15th.
Earnings season begins Monday April 10th with Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo reporting on the 13th afternoon. The following week, April 17th to 21st will have many more companies reporting.Earnings are expected to be excellent, possibly the best of the year. At the end of April, the federal government faces another shutdown. Offsetting the bullish expectations for earnings is the gridlock in the Republican Party between deficit hawks and Trump’s growth agenda.
Large oil companies are shedding assets in the Canadian Oil Sands in favor of the lower extraction cost Permian Basin in West Texas, where its cheaper and faster to get out of the ground. Conoco Phillips ( COP: $ 49.87 ) + $ 5.77 or + 11.6% shares catapulted on their annoncement of a sale, receiving $ 13 Bllions in cash and stock, to Calgary based Cenovus Energy ( CVE: $ 11.30 ) – $ 1.31 or – 10.4%. Cenovus Energy made a new low down 25% for the year. Marathon Oil ( MRO: $ 15.80 ) + $ 1.13 or + 7.7% rose above its 200 day moving average on similar news.Royal Dutch Shell ( RDS.A $ 52.73 ) + 0.67 or + 1.3% also reduced its own tar-sands holdings but could not make it above its 50 day moving average. Both Devon Energy and Exxon Mobil have major-oil sands investments.
Semiconductors ( SMH: $ 79.71 ) + $ 0.58 or + 0.7% for the week needs to hold 79.10 and catapult above 80 to maintain its bullish leadership.
Gold ( GLD: $ 118.72 ) – $ 0.14 or – 0.1% if bullish should challenge the 200 day moving average at about 120.25 and hold above 116.75 the 50 day m.a. The GDX, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ( GDX: 22.81 ) – $ 0.11 or – 0.5%, has found the 23.50 as major resistance.
Market Strategies Economic Data
The third estimate for Q4 GDP represented a 20-basis point uptick from the second estimate, showing a growth rate of 2.1%.The expectations from Briefing.com were for a gain of 2.0%.
The GDP Deflator was left unrevised at 2.0%, which was in line with Briefing.com expectations.
The revision in the third estimate was owed to upward revisions to Personal Consumption Expenditures (to 3.5% from 3.0%) and private inventory investment, which were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Imports were revised up to 8.9% from 8.5%.
Real final sales were left unrevised at 0.9%, representing the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2014
The key takeaway from the report is that despite the upward revision, growth trends remains subdued amid soft business spending.
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| GDP | 2.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Inventories (change) | $46.2B | $7.1B | -$9.5B | $40.7B | $56.9B |
| Final Sales | 0.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| PCE | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | -3.4% | -3.3% |
| Structures | -1.9% | 12.0% | -2.1% | 0.1% | -15.2% |
| Equipment | 1.9% | -4.5% | -3.0% | -9.5% | -2.6% |
| Intellectual Property | 4.5% | 3.2% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| Residential Inv. | 9.6% | -4.1% | -7.8% | 7.8% | 11.5% |
| Net Exports | -$605.0B | -$522.2B | -$558.5B | -$566.3B | -$566.6B |
| Export | -4.0% | 10.0% | 1.8% | -0.7% | -2.7% |
| Imports | 8.9% | 2.2% | 0.2% | -0.6% | 0.7% |
| Government | 0.2% | 0.8% | -1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| GDP Price Index | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 125.6 in March (Briefing.com consensus 113.3) from a revised 116.1 (from 114.8) in February. March represents the highest level for the index since it hit 128.6 at the end of 2000
The Present Situation Index increased to 143.1 from 134.4.The Expectations Index rose to 113.8 from 103.9.
March represents the highest level for the index since it hit 128.6 at the end of 2000. The Present Situation Index increased to 143.1 from 134.4.The Expectations Index rose to 113.8 from 103.9.
The key takeaway from this report is that consumers were emboldened by a positive view of current business and labor market conditions. There was an improvement in the short-term outlook for business, jobs, and personal income prospects, and more upside is expected on these fronts. Keep in mind that this survey was taken before the failure of health care reform.
| Category | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV |
| Conference Board | 125.6 | 116.1 | 111.6 | 113.3 | 109.4 |
| Expectations | 113.8 | 103.9 | 99.3 | 106.4 | 94.4 |
| Present Situation | 143.1 | 134.4 | 130.0 | 123.5 | 132.0 |
| Employment (‘plentiful’ less ‘hard to get’) | 12.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 6.6 |
| 1 yr inflation expectations | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% |
For the second month in a row, the Personal Income and Spending report showed in-line Personal Income growth of 0.4% while Personal Spending came up short of the Briefing.com consensus estimate (0.2%), ticking up 0.1%. The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).
The increase in Personal Income was driven by a 0.5% increase in wages and salaries and an uptick in rental income of persons. The personal savings rate increased 5.6% versus 5.5% in January.
While the report showed income growth, the uptick in the personal savings rate suggests that consumers have a somewhat cautious outlook. Furthermore, the decline in real PCE underscores the fact that overall economic growth remains subdued.
The PCE Price Index was up 1.8% year-over-year, holding consistently at levels seen at the end of 2016. Given this level, the index is just below the Fed’s longer-run inflation target of 2.0%.
| Category | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Disposable Income | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Savings Rate | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Year/Year | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
Market Strategies Cycles
The Dow Jones Industrials had their worst weekly decline and the S&P 500 had its first daily loss in excess of 1% in 109 trading days came last week. That week was also flanked by DJIA’s third and fourth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) (4) of 2017. Single DF/DM occurrences have historically foreshadowed future weakness, but back-to-back occurrences have historically signaled a turning point in the current trend. The trend was lower then and DJIA has held support so its next move could be a run back toward all-time highs.
Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ edged into the black on Thursday and Friday making March a positive month. Both the Dow and DJ Transportation indexes collapsed and made it difficult for the bulls. March 2017 like other post-election year was weaker than most non-election year Marches
Stocks were rolling along rather strongly during Trump’s first 100 days until the new healthcare bill ran into a wall. The market seems to have shrugged it off with a fairly typical mild end-of-Q1 correction of -54 points or -2.3% on the S&P 500. The S&P has found support at the 50-day moving average. However, both the DJ Transportation Index as well as the Russell 2000 index of small cap stock has fallen well- behind as it often does this time of year.
In fact, while Mr. Trump continues to run an unorthodox administration and operates much differently than any president we can remember, the market continues to rally, clearly anticipating some legislation or policy maneuvers that will prove beneficial to the economy and market.
Probably, the economy and corporate America are just finding better footing on the back of still historically low interest rates that are destined to help cause a more progressive business environment . Unemployment continues to dwindle and inflation finally has gained a little traction, but GDP remains tepid with the final Q4 rate revised 10 basis points higher last Thursday to a yawning 2.1%.
March began with DJIA roaring over 300 points higher on the first trading day, but from then to now it has been a struggle. Since the first, DJIA has only recorded five daily advances and fifteen daily declines. DJIA also logged its first eight-consecutive-daily-losing streak since 2011. However, despite all of this seemingly apparent negative trading action, DJIA has remained above its 50-day moving average (1) and is still less than 500 points from its March 1 all-time closing high.
The DJIA’s mediocre performance this March has turned both its faster and slower MACD indicators negative (2). Both indicators had been in a steady and consistent trend lower until recently when their trajectory lower began to level off.
While we expect further gains in April and even potentially a few months beyond that, the market remains ripe for a more substantial correction in the 5-10% range, but we would not expect that to transpire until summertime during the latter part of our “Worst Six Months.”
March weakness has dragged on throughout the entire month, but S&P 500 (5) and NASDAQ (6) have also held up with only two weekly declines each in the last four weeks. S&P 500 and NASDAQ put the full month back in the green today. DJIA would need a close above 20812.24 to be positive in March.
NYSE Weekly Advancers and Decliners (7) have been in a tug of war this month. The modest gains during the week ending March 3 were accompanied by a greater number of Decliners than Advancers which was an early sign of future weakness. A healthy market advance would be accompanied by Advancers exceeding Decliners by a solid margin on a consistent basis.
NYSE Weekly New Highs (8) peaked in February and have been choppy to lower since while Weekly New Lows have exceeded 100 for three straight weeks. This is typical behavior during periods of weakness. A steady increase in New Highs accompanied by a steady decrease in New Lows would be a sign that the rally has resumed. Even better would be an expansion of New Highs that exceeds February or even December’s high of 676.
Weekly CBOE Put/Call (9) readings have exceeded 0.70 for three weeks straight and have accompanied minor losses overall. Possibly due to the increasing popularity of weekly options, spikes seen in historical data, above 1.0 during times of elevated fear and near or below 0.40 during times of greed, seem to have disappeared. The contrary value of this indicator appears diminished as it increases modestly while the market is weak and falls while the market is rising.
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:
Repro-Med Systems, Inc. (OTCQX: REPR 0.40 )*
CHESTER, NY / March 25, 2017 / Repro Med Systems, Inc. dba RMS Medical Products (OTCQX: REPR) (“RMS” or the “Company”) announced today the successful launch of a new product. The F3CP Variable flow rate controller has been combined with the RMS FREEDOM60® and RMS HIgH-Flo™ Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets for use in a clinical trial in Sweden to administer HYQVIA, a drug used to treat Primary Immunodeficiency (PID). The F3CP Variable rate flow controller was designed specifically for this drug viscosity, resulting in the RMS FREEDOM60® System being the easiest and safest delivery system for home use.
Eric Bauer, COO of RMS said, “Due to the complexity of electronic systems and flow rate protocol, this is the first time that patients were able to receive this medication at home, and reported an incredible 95% patient satisfaction. There are thousands of patients around the world who have been diagnosed with immune deficiencies. They now have a safe, effective and lower cost method for home infusion of this life changing medication. The RMS system by design has limited constant pressure which prevents many of the adverse side effects caused by other variable pressure infusion systems.”
The F3CP Variable Flow rate controller has received an official CE mark and registration in Canada. It is now commercially available in Canada and Europe and is currently being used by patients throughout Sweden and Germany. U.S. availability is awaiting FDA clearance which is expected in the near future.
RMS Medical Products is the leading manufacturer of medical products used for home infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60® and our latest FreedomEdge® Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing™ and RMS HIgH-Flo™ Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets.
These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC® line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.
The Company’s website may be visited at www.rmsmedicalproducts.com.
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: $ 8.37 ) Take Profits; Look for a pattern re-entry:
Enzo Biochem closed the calendar year 2016 at $6.94 a share. For the year it was up 54.22% versus the Dow Jones +13%. The relative strength index was 53.41 which is neutral and short interest declined to 827,800 shares. However the RSI has climbed to over 80 and is now 69.08 on April 1st, 2017. Enzo’s balance sheet closed their first quarter October 31 with $67 million in cash and current equivalents and complete elimination of debt. Both the Clinical Lab and Life Science divisions ended the year profitably. New products were added to their catalog and litigations have moved ahead leaving them as a plaintiff with 6 lawsuits in the Delaware Court and one in the Manhattan Court.
What do I look for in 2017? The market will be interesting in the first half with the Government transition to a new administration. I think the Institutional Investor will be a bit more risk adverse until the direction of the economy becomes clearer.
As far as Enzo the Company is concerned they will be having their Annual Shareholders Meeting on Thursday January 5 at 9 AM at the Yale Club in New York. It will be interesting to see how Management see’s the Health Care Industry being affected by a change in the Affordable Care Act. The following week Management will be at the J P Morgan Health Care Conference in San Francisco January 9-12. I would hope to see an increase in top line revenues reflecting National rollouts of the new AmpiProbe products as well as others and more approvals of products in the pipeline.
I also anticipate that we will hear the trial results from the NIH on the use of Optiquel for the treatment of Uveitis. March and April will see Summary Judgements acted on by the Court in the Delaware cases. Trial dates have already been set for Genprobe and Holgics for October, Roche in November and Becton Dickenson in December. Abbots Summary Judgement request was denied by the Court but the trial date has yet to be set. At some point the 2nd Court of Appeals will rule on Enzo’s appeal on the CT. Courts reversal of the Jury’s decision in the Enzo vs. Apalera Case. The market is giving no value, win or lose, to this decision. The stake is $65 million with no adverse effect if ruled against Enzo. Enzo should again outperform the Dow and S&P in 2017.
Updates on Delaware Litigations
The last earnings report showed a cash position in excess of $65 million with no debt to speak of and a positive cash flow from their operating divisions. The only cash burn is coming from Litigation expenses and a bit from Research and Development. Litigation in Delaware is on a contingency basis as such Enzo is not on the hook for billable hours. To my knowledge there are 6 suits left after 6 have settled.
When the company gets a 500 million dollar market cap ($10.63) they will qualify for those Institutions that can’t buy microcap stocks. A significant number of Institutions will look to be buyers and with only 47 million shares issued and Institutions already owning 50% and insiders owning 15% that leaves less than 17 million shares in the float.
Pressure Bio Sciences OTCQB: PBIO ( 0.32 )* Develops, markets, and sells proprietary laboratory instrumentation and associated consumables to the estimated $6 billion life sciences sample preparation market. Products are based on the unique properties of both constant (i.e., static) and alternating (i.e., pressure cycling technology, or PCT) hydrostatic pressure. PCT is a patented enabling technology platform that uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels to safely and reproducibly control bio-molecular interactions. To date, they have installed over 250 PCT systems in approximately 160 sites worldwide. There are over 100 publications citing the advantages of the PCT platform over competitive methods, many from key opinion leaders. The primary development and sales efforts are in the biomarker discovery, drug discovery and design, and forensics areas. Customers also use PBIO products in other areas, such as bio-therapeutics characterization, soil & plant biology, vaccine development, and counter-bioterror applications.
NEEDS IN MEDICINE: In the world of medicine our dramatically improved ability for early detection or to confirm and refine diagnosis ranging from over a hundred types of cancer to tuberculosis and a hundred other maladies and conditions is “bottlenecked” by 30 year old methods of preparing test samples. Collectively such diagnostic samples exceed a hundred million annually.
NEEDS IN RESEARCH: Globally there are over a half a million medical and pharmaceutical research scientists working in over eighty thousand laboratories who are hampered by the time consuming and outdated methods of preparing test samples.
NEEDS IN FORENSICS: Globally, in millions of cases, swift and sure exoneration of the innocent and / or justice for the guilty is often delayed or even denied because of the ponderous means of preparing and conducting DNA and other forensic testing.
PBIO is focused on solving the challenges of biological sample preparation, a crucial laboratory step performed globally by the biological life sciences research scientists. Sample preparation refers to a wide range of activities that precede most forms of scientific analysis. It is often complex, time-consuming and, in our opinion, one of the most error-prone steps of scientific research. Sample preparation is a ubiquitous laboratory undertaking – the requirements of which drive a large and growing worldwide market. PBIO has developed and patented a novel, enabling technology platform that can control the sample preparation process while improving both efficacy and quality. It is based on harnessing the unique properties of high hydrostatic pressure. This process, called pressure cycling technology, or PCT, uses alternating cycles of hydrostatic pressure between ambient (normal atmosphere) and ultra-high levels i.e., 35,000 pounds per square inch (“psi”) or greater to safely, conveniently and reproducibly control the actions of molecules in biological samples, such as cells and tissues from human, animal, plant and microbial sources.
The PBIO pressure cycling technology uses proprietary and internally developed instrumentation that is capable of cycling pressure between ambient and ultra-high levels at controlled temperatures and specific time intervals, to rapidly and repeatedly control the interactions of bio-molecules, such as deoxyribonucleic acid (“DNA”), ribonucleic acid (“RNA”), proteins, lipids and small molecules. Their laboratory instrument, the Barocycler®, and their internally developed consumables product line, which include Pressure Used to Lyse Samples for Extraction (“PULSE”) tubes, and other processing tubes, and application specific kits such as consumable products and reagents, together make up their PCT Sample Preparation System (“PCT SPS”).
The PBIO pressure cycling technology takes a unique approach that has the potential for broad use in a number of established and emerging life sciences areas, which include:
- Biological sample preparation in potentially thousands of research laboratories worldwide working in human, animal, plant, and microbial diseases and disorders – including but not limited to sample extraction, homogenization, and digestion in genomic, proteomic, lipidomic, metabolomic and small molecule study areas;
- Pathogen inactivation (useful in vaccine development, infectious disease research, and more);
- Protein purification, and in the control of chemical reactions, particularly enzymatic (useful in drug design and development);
- And immunodiagnostics (useful in the development and detection of biomarkers).
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PBIO has secured their technology through fourteen issued United States patents and ten issued foreign patents covering multiple applications of pressure cycling technology in the life sciences field. They also have additional patents pending. Research indicates that Pressure Bio Science, Inc. is the ONLY Company globally to have patents in this new science sector.
Night Food, Inc. (NGTF 0.18 )* is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Night food Holdings incorporated in Nevada in 2013 to manufacture and distribute healthy-choice bedtime snacks. The Company has an exclusive agreement with RFI, natural ingredient manufacturer and proprietor of Chocamine, a patented chocolate ingredient
Americans keep gaining more weight. People have the tendency to grab for goodies at the end of the evening as they relax to enjoy some T.V. Eating and snacking too late at night is a contributing factor to gaining weight. Seventy percent of adults, ages 18-54, eat right before bed. Chocamine delivers the health benefits of chocolate to the body (amino acids, minerals and polyphenols) without the added sugars, caffeine or fat.
People give in to the intense hunger cravings that leads to the consumption of sugary, salty or calorie dense foods to satisfy their appetite. Most of the snacks that people typically eat create a disturbance in sleep, causing a person to wake up feeling unrested. Night Food offers nutrient filled alternatives to high-calorie junk foods.
There are flavor filled snack bars-either Cookies and Dreams or Midnight Chocolate Crunch that will help curb hunger, satisfy cravings, improve rest and give the body essential vitamins and minerals. Consumers spend over $50 billion/ year on night-time snacks, nearly 1 billion a week. More people desire healthy alternatives to late night consumption of the traditional fattening ice cream, chips and cookies.
Sugar and caffeine in most snacks causes disruptive sleep. Each bar has only 142 calories and 5 grams of fiber for slow absorption of energy and gives a feeling of fullness and satisfaction. There is also 132 mg of calcium and zinc for replenishing the body and feeling well rested in the morning.
Leo Motors (LEOM: $ 0. 13 )* has patents for the electric battery industry which we will be writing about in upcoming weekly reports. They have developed a lithium battery that can operate vehicles in sub-zero climates. Their subsidiary LGM has developed battery technology supported by the Korean government to make it possible to use electric battery technology for fishing boats. They have a cartridge system which is a light-weight replacement method of swapping electric batteries.
Fishing has been harmed by the noise and oil leaks from internal combustion engines. LGM has solved that problem and besides eliminating the toxic problem, operating costs are reduced by 25%.
In addition they have a special patent for averting electric hazards and shocks. Leo developed the Internet of Things for e-boats which is networked and connected with an Android Operating System. Leo’s power supply system is CAN (Controller Area Network) based, which enables mobile diagnostics between mobile devices and boats using the Leo technology.
Leo is developing a battery swap system for Kalmado in Puerto Princesa, Philippines, a world famous tourist attraction, which is focused on green energy. They will be converting 100 boats as the environment is expected to become 100% free of the toxicity from internal combustion engines. Also, Leo has developed a battery swap system for Go-Karts to be used in malls in China, Korea and Myanmar. Leo Motors has a new carbon nanotube battery power pack that functions and supplies full power in extreme low temperatures such as below 49 degrees without the need for grid electricity.
Galaxy Gaming ( GLXZ: $ 0.63 ) is on a nice growth pattern: They are in a great business with very little aggressive competition. They have some of the best development and manufacturing of table games and related products for the casino industry worldwide. Casino operators are in search for new and challenging table games to obtain increased interest and more funds from players.
Located in over 500 casinos around the globe, the Company offers a large portfolio of the world’s most popular side bets and proprietary table games. Additionally, the Company has a line of systems and associated equipment which provide casino operators with enhanced profitability, automation and security of table game operations.
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To
Mike King
(702) 650-3000