February 10, 2014

High Return Investments

Market Strategies Newsletter

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Covering High Return

Balanced Investing Strategies To

Make Money In Up Or Down Markets

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Market Strategies High Return Investments

$10,000 Trading Account

Traders Comments

There are 2 open positions:

AIG Feb 48 Calls

GRPN March 11 Calls

Funds in Use $ 1,104

 

In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479

Over 284% Returns

A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479

The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.

 284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013

171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012

77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)

 

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This was a horrendous week for the Options Only account, at least early on.

We got stopped out of 4 out of 5 positions on the 50% Rule before the rally.

We finished the week with a net loss of $1,149 bringing the YTD performance In the red to ($2,611). 

Last week I said that I wasn’t ready to give up on the bull side of market just yet but was unable to find the proper offsets to a bull market in a small $ 10K account.

The problem of the debt ceiling looms ahead as do so many other political issues.  Most of the traders that are regulars on CNBC, FFN, or Bloomberg TV seem to all have divergent opinions.  Without Uncle Ben Bernanke the buy a dip mentality is in doubt.

AAII numbers below show the lowest bullish and highest bearish consensus in recent memory (everybody is never right ). We are still oversold on the S&P500 daily and we have what looks like a “key reversal” on the weekly chart. Also, Gann players love the “4-legged pattern.”

Another plus is the fact that we closed the gap on the daily S&P500 from the highs in mid-January vs. the 200 day MA.  On Jan. 21 when the S&P closed near 1850 the 200 day MA was 1681 or 9.1% above the MA.  On Feb 5 the close was 1773, with the MA @ 1696, we were only 4.3% over (at the low that day we were 1737 or only 2.3% over the MA).  This compares with the two most recent lows (before rallies) of 5% on both the August and October lows.

All that said, any further rally will take us from mildly oversold into neutral or even overbought status.  S&P500 should have some resistance @ 1825 and support @ 1740-1750.  A little sideways action would certainly further define the risk profile of the market…

….CAM

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Market Strategies High Return Investments

$10,000 Trading Account

Trade Table

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

Subscriber Members Only

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.

We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25^th 147 calls or puts.

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Market Strategies

High Return Investments

MArket Laboratory

Weekly Changes For  Market Indicators

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits

M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

 

New Stock Recommendations

Market Strategies

High Return Investments

$100,000 Trading Portfolio

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.

Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the Subscribers Members Area.

For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the  DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

 

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Market Strategies High Return Investments

$100,000 Trading Portfolio

Recommendations And Overall Comments

New Trades

We had four closed out stock positions last week.

Our losses for the new year were increased to $ 6,755.

For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.

We have open position losses of about $ 6,727 most of which are held over from last year.

We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American ( NAT ) and JP Morgan.

We have two long options positions:

The Stock table has the following 18 positions:

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000

and are using $ 2,208 in two options positions and

$ 72,801 in 18 stock positions

totaling $ 75,009 with
$ 24,991 in cash.

These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the Market Strategies

High Return Investments

$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account

• All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated

• When the option has doubled sell half the position

• Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade

• The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

• The options will be followed until closed out.

• Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

This Weeks’ Market Strategies

High Return Investments

Economic Numbers and Media Data

GOGO ( -0.27 )

Loews ( L: 0.72 vs -0.08 )

 

Earnings after the close appear at the bottom.

Comstock ( CRK: ( -0.24 vs -0.55 )

FWRD ( 0.56 vs 0.54 )

TuesdayDean Foods ( DF 0.19 vs 0.20 )

Genesee and Wyoming GWR 1.16 vs 0.79

Huntsman HUN ( 0.37 vs 0.24 )

 

10:00 hrs JOLTS-Job Openings  ( NA vs 4.001 Mln )

 

10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories  Dec ( 0.6% vs 0.5% )

Wednesday07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/08 ( NA vs 0.4% )

 

10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 02/08 ( NA vs 0.440Mln bbls )

 

CAKE ( .58 vs .51 )

CSCO ( .46 vs .51 )

EFX ( .91 vs .76 )

WFM ( 0.44 vs 0.78 )

Sketchers SKX(0.16 vs 0.08 )

AEM .19-.41

ThursdayApache ( 1.79 vs 2.27 )

Barrick Gold ( 0.41 vs 1.11 )

BKW ( 0.23 )

CPN -0.05 vs 0.22 )

GNRC ( .87 )

GT (.63 vs .00 )

DBD ( 0.50 vs 0.45 )

GG ( 0.23 vs 0.57 )

( NUS 1.92 vs 0.97 )

 

08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/08 ( 335K vs 331K )

Continuing Claims 02/01 ( 2975K vs 2964K

 

08:30 hrs Retail Sales Jan ( 0.0% vs 0.2% )

Ex-Auto ( 0.1% vs 0.7% )

 

10:00 hrs Business Inventories Dec ( 0.4% vs 0.4% )

 

10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/08 ( NA vs -262bcf )

 

CLF ( 0.81 vs 0.62 )

Cray ( 1.31 vs 0.44 )

KEG  ( -0.06 vs 0.09 )

WTW ( 0.61 vs 0.96 )

WOOF ( 0.31 vs -0.66 )

Friday08:30 hrs Export prices Ex Ag ( na vs 0.3% )

Import Prices Ex-Oil  ( NA vs -0.1% )

 

09:15 hrs Industrial Production Jan ( 0.3% vs 0.3% )

Cap Utilization Jan ( 79.4% vs 79.2%)

 

09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment ( 80.2 vs 81.2 )

 

Agilent ( 0.66 vs 0.63 )

Health Mgmt ( HMA 0.25 vs 0.12 )

 

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Market Strategies

High Return Investments

Economic Data

Nonfarm Payrolls rose meagerly in January to 113,000 new jobs well below expectations of 185,000. However, November Jobs were revised higher to 237,000 from 200,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.6% from 6.7% However, Household employment numbers rose sharply. In the background, the Fed remains accommodative. Investors assume that in the event of serious economic pullbacks, the Fed will be most accommodating. That is known as the Yellen Put.

More deleterious to the markets was the weak ISM Manufacturing Index which fell to 51.3 in January from 56.5 in December and a consensus of 56, which was the largest one month decline since October 2008. The New orders growth section suffered a drop to 51.2 in January from 64.4 in December, the worst decline since December 1980. This sharp decline did not correlate well with regional surveys from Federal Reserve Banks. The number was a shock, even though blamed on the weather, caused the S&P to slip 2.4% to 1741.89 from an opening value of 1783.

 

Market Strategies

High Return Investments

Trading Fundamentals

Consumer Services was the leader of the eight winning Dow Industrials up 1.61%. Basic Materials rose 1.24%; Financials 0.82%; Consumer Goods 0.72%; Technology 0.69%; Industrials 0.53%; Oil and Gas 0.50%; Health Care 0.45%. there were 2 losers Utilities off 0.77% and Telecommunications down the most 2.14%.

So far this year, Utilities have been a bright spot with a respectable year-to-date gain compared to many other sectors that are currently in the red. Perhaps the Utilities are rallying because interest rates are falling and their dividends are beginning to look attractive again or perhaps they are advancing because U.S. growth is improving which in turn should drive energy demand. Most likely, Utilities’ success in 2014 is a combination of these reasons and others. As can be seen in the following chart of the Utility Sector Index (UTY), seasonal strength typically begins following an early March bottom and lasts through mid-October. Seasonal factors combined with the current trend and fundamentals make Utilities attractive.

 

Market Strategies

High Return Investments

Technical Information

Support Levels S&P 500    1765 – 1744

Resistance S&P 500           1797 – 1812

 

Support Levels DOW          15,490

Resistance DOW                 15,840 – 15,925

 

Support Levels QQQ           84.86 – 84.05                  

Resistance QQQ                  89.20

                  

Support Levels Nasdaq      4084 – 4000

Resistance Nasdaq             4197

 

Market Strategies

High Return Investments

Cycles

With nearly $5 billion in assets and average daily trading volumes in excess of 10 million shares per day over the last three months, SPDR Utilities (XLU) is the top choice to hold during Utilities seasonally favorable period. It has a gross expense ratio of just 0.16% and comes with the added kicker of a 3.82% dividend yield. XLU could be bought on dips below $38.21. Based upon its 15-year average return of 10.7% during its favorable period mid-March to the beginning of October, an auto-sell price of $46.53 is set. If purchased an initial stop loss of $34.55 is suggested.

A bitter cold winter can be the forerunner of a significant March rally upon the advent of Spring. Every year since 2006, there has been a nice gain in the bullish ETF’s from Feb to April.

Disclaimer – Rule 17 B Attestations

Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton will be engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton is paid about 500,000 shares of Leo Motors.

 

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

 

CONTACT

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

Mike King

Phone: (702) 650-3000

mike@princetonresearch.com

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

Fax: (702) 697-8944

Visit: PrincetonResearch.com

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