February 16, 2015
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Where To Invest In 2015
Stock Options Trading Newsletter Covering:
Where to Invest February 2015
Best Stocks To Buy February 2015
Stock Market Investing Strategies
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
2015 Year To Date Profits $ 3,647
Over 36% Returns
2014 Profits = $ 20,443
Over 204% Returns
$20,443 Profits for $10,000 Trading Account
By Following all trades in 2014 a
$10,000 account would be worth $30,443
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High Return Investments Trade Alerts
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Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account Traders Comments
We have four open long positions:
GILD February $ 105 Calls
RWM March $ 11 Calls
NAT March $ 10 Calls and
VJET Feb $ 8 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1,530
STOCKS ARE LIKE BUSES…….
Week 6 had a small loss of $240 as I went against my own comments and thought that we could have finally run into some selling near what “might” have been some topping action. This was also in part, trying to remain balanced even as the market negated the Head & Shoulders top thesis. This leaves us with 4 positions totaling $1,530 in use and the YTD number of $3647 in gains.
This weeks’ action can propel the market much higher. Doing the support and resistance numbers
I was struck by what the longer term implications for what now appears as a well – defined consolidation. There are several methods to project probable price objectives, but the one I tend to use is the “measured move.” This works whether you use Bar or Point & Figure charts.
The short version of how these work is to take a measurement of the size of the base (time spent consolidating) and extending that distance from the base up the price scale. The Point and figure charts give no credence to time, just movement, for these I use the size of the move on any
Break-out above the top of the consolidation and it’s pullback and add the size above the top of the first move. An example is the action in the SPY which between 2010/2011 consolidated with 15 reversals between 93 and 110. When it broke out, it moved 16 boxes to 124/126. In 2012 it consolidated between 98 and 120 and upon breaking out at 120 ran up to 134.
Since this time it has had a series of up moves followed by 50% pullbacks, followed by 100% up moves (not price, but rather 100% the size of the prior move) followed by more pullbacks with
higher highs and higher lows. This is typical of a trending market. My current price objective is roughly S&P 2,224-2,230.
Not straight up but getting there over several months. This also doesn’t preclude taking counter-trend positions on stocks that continue weak or get over-owned, or the need for balance in the portfolios.
Some of our other positions have done remarkably well.
We are long SLXP @ $100.80 (last 152) ARRY @ $4.78 (last $8.01) and the VJET options @ $ .50 (last $2.30 with half sold on the 100% Up Rule. These are great positions and were put on at exactly where I believed the risk profile merited a buy. I bring this up because in the last couple of weeks we have missed major moves literally by pennies. We had a buy in on FEYE @ $35.14 and on Tuesday it hit $35.17 and closed the week @ $42.28…..While this is disappointing, the reason that we use any particular price is because we want our risk/reward to be as favorable as possible. I know $ .03 is a tough miss but stocks trades are like buses, if you miss one they’ll be another on right behind it.
I trade the way I trade and really make no apologies, since our annual returns are based on these methods.
…CAM
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Where to Invest February 2015
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
New Trades:
Buy 10 TJX March 72.50 Calls @ $ 0.60 ( March Expiration is March 20th )
| DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
| 02/13 | Bought 8 NAT March 10 Calls | 0.60 | 600 | ||
| 02/10 | Sold 8 QQQ February 102.50 Puts | 0.44 | 352 | 240 Loss | |
| 02/10 | Bought 8 QQQ February 102.50 Puts | 0.74 | 592 | ||
| 02/06 | Bought 10 RWM March 16 Calls | 0.30 | 300 | ||
| 02/05 | Sold 10 NAT February 11 Calls( 50% Loss Rule not used because of low price ) | 0.20 | 200 | 200 Loss | |
| 01/26 | Sold 2 GILD February 105 Calls | 5.00 | 1000 | 500 Gain | |
| 01/21 | Bought 10 NAT February 11 Calls | 0.40 | 400 | ||
| 01/21 | Sold 5 VJET February 8 Calls( Sold Half – 100% Profit Rule )Leaves 5 lots Long | 1.00 | 500 | 250 Gain | |
| 01/20 | Bought 10 VJET February 8 Calls | 0.50 | 500 | ||
| 01/13 | Bought 4 GILD February 105 Calls | 2.50 | 1000 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
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Stock Market Investing Strategies
MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
| Dow18,019.35+195.06
+1.09% |
Nasdaq4893.84+149.44 +3.15% |
S&P 5002096.99+41.52
+2.02% |
Transportation9034.06+101.59
+1.14% |
Russell 20001223.13 +17.67+1.47% |
Nasdaq100 4384.03+155.35
+3.67% |
| Gold (spot)1226.50-7.40
-0.6% |
Silver 1729.4+60.0
+3.6% |
Crude52.78+1.09
+2.1% |
Heating Oil197.14+13.23
+7.2% |
Unleaded Gas1.6262+0.0671
+4.3% |
Natural Gas2.804+0.225
+8.7% |
| VIX14.69-2.60
-15.0% |
Put/Call RatiosS&P 100165/100’s
+14/100’s |
Put/Call RatiosCBOE Equity62/100’s
-2/100’s |
Bonds145-29 -1-242.63% +0.10% | 10 Yr. Note128-074 -156 2.02% +0.08% | Copper260.50+1.95
+0.8% |
| CRB InflationIndex229.19
+4.34 +1.9% |
Barron’s* Confidence78.6%-0.3% | S&P100923.43+19.37
+2.14% |
5 Yr. Note119-254 -0561.51% +0.12 %
|
Dollar94.18-0.47
-0.5% |
DJ Utilities593.83-19.86
-3.24% |
| AAIIConfidenceIndex | Bullish40.0%+4.5% | Bearish20.3%-12.1% | Neutral39.7%+7.6% | M1 Money Supply+6.81%February 2nd | M-2 MoneySupply+6.58%
February 2nd |
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 2054
Resistance S&P 500 2135
Support Levels DOW 17,750
Resistance DOW 17,985
Support Levels QQQ 103.00
Resistance QQQ 108.50
Support Levels NASDAQ 4760
Resistance NASDAQ 4910
Closes below support triggers sales/above highs buys
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Best Stocks To Buy February 2015
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and
New Stock Recommendations
1) Sell 100 MOS @ MKT
2) Buy 1200 UWTI @ $ 3.55
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
| Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | |||
| FORM 500 | 8.56 | 02/13 | ||||||
| NAT 500 | 10.16 | 02/13 | ||||||
| ENZ 1200 | 3.39 | 02/06 | 2.89 sco | |||||
| ARRY 1000Sold 500 Leaves 500 | 4.78 | 01/05 | 7.49 01/23 | $ 1,355 | ||||
| MOS 100 | 45.41 | 01/05 | ||||||
| BAC. Wts 5,000 lots | 0.7411 | 12/26 | ||||||
| BSBR 500 | 4.84 | 12/18 | ||||||
| BCRH 300 | 17.50 | 12/18 | ||||||
| SAN 600 | 8.40 | 12/16 | ||||||
| SLXP 50 | 100.80 | 11/25 | ||||||
| FB 100 | 74.18 | 11/24 | ||||||
| XCO 1200 | 3.10 | 11/28 | ||||||
| INO 500 | 9.92 | 11/17 | ||||||
| AA 500 | 14.21 | 10/16 | ||||||
| FCX 150 | 34.99 | 09/09 | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 2.95 | 05/19 | ||||||
| XRGYF 5000* | 0.407 | 03/14 | ||||||
| RPTP 400 | 15.37 | 01/16 | ||||||
| NBG 300 | 4.08 | 8/12 | ||||||
| TEXQY* 200 | 6.56 | 7/11 | ||||||
| REPR* 5000 | 0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco | |||||
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Stock Options Trade Alerts
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
New Options Trades:
1) Buy 20 TJX March $ 72.50 Calls @ $ 0.60
There was one closed long option position, a trade in the QQQ’s which were bought and sold the same day uneventfully taking a loss of $ 480.
There were no closed out stock positions.
Two new positions were added, the FORM and NAT.
For the full year to date, we have gains of $ 9,749.
Open position losses decreased to $ 767.
There are four long Open Options positions:
GILD February 105 Calls,
RWM March Calls.
NAT March 10 Calls,
VJET Feb 8 Calls and the
written or short ARRY Calls against the 500 shares long
The Stock table has the following 21 positions:
AA, ARRY, BAC.B.WS, BCRH, BSBR, ENZ, FB, FCX, FORM, INO,
MOS, NAT NBG (2), REPR, RPTP, SAN, SLXP, TEXQY, XCO, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of
$ 82,371 for 21open stock positions plus four option long positions requiring
$ 2,635 totaling
$ 85,006 leaving
$ 14,994 in cash
These figures are approximate and there might be errors.
We have not counted the dividends received from Apple, JP Morgan, BSBR ( Brazil ) Santander,
Blue Capital Reinsurance and others.
We do not count commission costs and all trading once again is hypothetical.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
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Options Trading Strategies
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless
otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,
whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
| Option | Cost | Date | Sold | Date | Profit/(Loss) |
| QQQ Feb 102.5016 lots | Puts0.74 | 02/13/15 | 0.44 | 02/13/15 | ( $ 480 ) |
| RWM March 1620 lots | Calls0.30 | 02/06/15 | |||
| ARRY Feb 75 lots SOLD | Calls | 0.85Short Against long stock position | 01/23/15 | $ 425 Credit | |
| NAT February 1120 lots | Calls0.40 | 01/21/15 | 0.20Sold Balance | 02/05/15 | ( $ 400 ) |
| VJET February 820 lots10 remain Open | Calls0.50 | 01/20/15 | 1.00Sold Half on 50% Profit Rule | 01/21/15 | $ 500 |
| GILD Feb 1058 lots | Calls2.50 | 01/13/15 | 5.00Sold Half on 100% Profit-Rule | 01/26/15 | $ 1000 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
Earnings Reports Before the Open on Top of the Row; After the Close are Below the Economics Numbers.
| Monday | President’s Day Holiday: Markets Closed |
| Tuesday | Genuine Parts ( GPC 1.06 vs 0.97 ) Goodyear Tire ( GT 0.61 vs 0.74 ) MGM Resorts ( 0.07 vs -0.08 ) Medtronic ( MDT 0.99 vs 0.91 ) Vanguard Natural Resources ( VNR 0.26 vs 0.14 ) Walter Energy ( WLT – 1.60 vs -0.55 )O8:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing Feb ( 9.0 vs 9.9 )10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Market Index Feb ( 58 vs 57 )
16:00 hrs Net Long term TIC Flows Dec ( $ 33.5Bln ) CF Industries ( CF 5.07 vs 5.71 ) Devon Energy ( DVN 1.06 vs 1.10 ) Jack In Box ( JACK 0.87 vs 0.75 )Kaiser Aluminum ( KALU 0.82 vs 0.85 ) Rackspace ( RAX 0.19 vs 0.14 ) Terex ( TEX 0.68 vs 0.65 ) Watts Water Technology ( WTS 0.65 vs 0.57 ) |
| Wednesday | Duke Energy ( DUK 0.87 vs 1.00 ) Fluor ( 1.10 vs 1.01 ) Hecla ( HL: 0.00 vs 0.00 )07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/14 ( NA vs -9.0% )08:30 hrs Housing Starts Jan ( 1070K vs 1089K )
Building Permits ( 1065K vs 1032K ) 08:30 hrs PPI Jan ( -0.4% vs -0.3% ) CORE PPI ( 0.1% vs 0.3% ) 09:15 hrs Industrial Production Jan ( 0.4% vs -0.1% ) Capacity Utilization Jan ( 79.9% vs 79.7% ) 14:00 hrs FOMC Minutes 1/28 ( Discussion will be important ) Fidelity National ( FNF 0.45 vs 0.43 ) Key Energy ( KEY -0.10 vs -0.06 ) Marriott ( MAR 0.65 vs 0.49 ) Marathon Oil ( MRO 0.04 vs 0.60 ) Parker Drilling ( PKD 0.03 vs 0.10 ) Regency Energy Ptnrs ( RGP 0.12 vs -0.03 ) Williams Ptnrs ( 1.14 vs 0.12 ) |
| Thursday | Boise Cascade ( BCC 0.53 vs 0.25 ) Denbury Resources ( DNR 0.23 vs 0.27 )Hormel ( HRL 0.64 vs 0.57 ) Linn ( 0.05 vs -3.15 ) Noble Energy 0.25 vs 0.50 )Teekay Shipping ( TK 0.27 vs 0.02 ) Wal-Mart ( WMT 1.54 vs 1.60 )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/14 ( 295K vs 304K ) Continuing Claims 02/07 ( 2398K vs 2354K ) 08:30 hrs Retail Sales Jan ( -0.5% vs -0.9% ) Retail Sales Ex-Auto -0.5% vs -1.0% ) 10:00 hrs Philadelphia Fed Feb ( 9.8% vs 6.3% ) 10:00 hrs Leading Indicators Jan ( 0.3% vs 0.5% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/14 ( NA vs -160bcf ) 11:00 hrs Crude Inventories 02/14 ( NA vs 4.868Mln Bbls ) Con Edison ( ED 0.55 vs 0.69 ) Crocs ( CROX -0.30 vs -0.20 ) Newmont Mining ( NEM 0.11 vs 0.33 ) Nordstrom ( JWN 1.36 vs 1.37 ) Marvell ( MRVL 0.24 vs 0.29 ) |
| Friday | 08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-agriculture Jan ( NA vs -1.2% )Import Prices ex-oil Jan ( NA vs -0.1% )10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment Feb ( 98.5 vs 98.1 ) |
How To Trade Options
Market Strategies Fundamentals
Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes rallied to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 closed at 2,096.99, a modest – sized gain of 41.52 points or 2. 02%, while the Russell 2000 added 17.67 points or 1.47% to 1,223.13. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 195 points or 1.09% to 18,019.35.
Nasdaq rose 149 points to 4,893.84 or 3.15%. The moves were modest but significant to the charts as investors were heartened by positive geopolitical events in Europe. There appears to be a cease fire emerging in the Eastern Ukraine while much of the financial pressure directed on Greece seemed to be abating.
More significantly, Germany posted a 0.7% fourth quarter GDP growth and as Europe’s most powerful economic engine, helped Crude prices rebound for a third consecutive week. Heating Oil gained the most 21.6%, from 162.11 to 197.14 over the past three weeks, while gasoline prices rose to 1.6262, up 0.2537 cents or 18.5%. Crude gained $ 7.19 per gallon up 15.7%. This whiff of inflation was welcomed to the markets fearing continued deflation.
Stronger growth in the Eurozone caused Treasuries to weaken with the 10-yr yield crossing above the 2% mark, up 3 basis points to 2.02%. The Long Bond ( 30 yr Treasury ) took the worst beating the yield rising 4 bps to 2.63%.
Market Strategies Economic Data
It was a poor week for economic numbers. Retail sales declined 0.8% in January after declining an unrevised 0.9% in December. The consensus expected retail sales to decline 0.4% in January.
Excluding autos, sales fell an even larger 0.9% in January after declining by the same amount in December. Higher wages failed to spark an increase in spending
Despite the large and unexpected decline, the Michigan University Sentiment level is the same as it was in December. The Current Conditions Index declined to 103.1 in February from 109.3 in January. The Expectations Index dropped to 87.5 from 91.0.
Strong income growth fails to spark retail sales demand.
| Category | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT | SEP |
| Retail Sales | -0.8% | -0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.9% | -0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Durable goods | |||||
| Building Materials | 0.6% | -0.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| Autos/parts | -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| Furniture | -0.7% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.5% |
| Nondurable goods | |||||
| General Merchandise | 0.1% | -0.9% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| Food | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Gasoline stations | -9.3% | -7.4% | -3.2% | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| Clothing | -0.8% | -1.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | -1.3% |
| e*retailing/non-store | 0.5% | -0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Category | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV | OCT |
| Sentiment | 93.6 | 98.1 | 93.6 | 88.8 | 86.9 |
| Outlook | 87.5 | 91.0 | 86.4 | 79.9 | 79.6 |
| Present conditions | 103.1 | 109.3 | 104.8 | 102.7 | 98.3 |
Stocks and ETF’s bought over the past few weeks:
Stocks and ETF’s bought over the past few weeks: Notice the Flexibility for whatever the market direction. Both the VIX and SPXU protect against declines while the UDOW and various stocks reflect the long side. Two weeks ago the long UDOW was stopped out at 131 for a $ 2,619 profit.
The SPXU was stopped out last week for a small loss.
The VXX volatility ETF ( VIX ) was stopped out last week for a small loss of $ 180.00. The Kroger made $ 1810, DuPont $ 899 and Deere $ 835 and were all sold the week of the January 26th mkt letter.The Exon ( XOM: $ 90.89 ) was stopped out at $ 91 for a break-even the previous week.
We would sell the UAL on a rally to 71 or a stop below 66.60. We remain long Alcoa, Mosaic, Smith and Wesson and the XLV the Health Care spider with the stop getting close. In addition we are long the DSX and Scorpio Shippers. ( All trading is hypothetical and intended as guidance)
| Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop LossOr sold |
| XLV | Health Care Spider | ETF | 70.43 | 70 | 68.20sco | |||
| SWHC | Smith and Wesson Holding Corp | Firearms; Handguns Metal Processing | 8.5 | 0.93 | 527.37 | 12.63 | 9.81 | |
| AA | Alcoa | Aluminum and Metals | 14.30 | 0.8 | 17.53B | 15.78 | 14.57 | 15.90sco |
| DSX | Diana Shipping | Dry Cargo Shipping | N/A | 3.7 | 611 | 7.24 | 6.60 | 5.90 |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | Oil Transportation | 26 | 5.6 | 1.47B | 8.29 | 7.46 | 7.48 |
| UAL | United Cont Hld | Transportation | 16 | 1.2 | 18.1K | 66.23 | 46 | 63.45sco |
| VXX | VIX Volatility | Hedge Portfolio | 34.30 | 30.97 stopped out @ 32.50 | 32.50sco | |||
| MOS | Mosaic Company | Agriculture Chemicals | 70 | 2.10 | 15.3K | 52.33 | 42.28 | 43.70 |
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
RMS Medical Systems, Inc ( REPR 0.40)*
Has doubled this year already and can double again .
RMS designs, markets, manufactures portable easy to operate infusion devices, including needles and tubing. It is easy to handle by patients. The Freedom 60 is being marketed in Europe as well as gaining a footing among home-care professionals in America. The RescueVac is used in ambulances and planes for emergency suction.
Southern ITS (SITS: $ 0.06 )*
Southern ITS delivers proprietary innovative electronic security systems to highly regulated market sectors. Such installations include Gaming Properties, Medical Marijuana (MMJ) dispensaries and similar businesses with high compliance mandates. Their systems go beyond simple security and are designed to support their clients in dealing with the expanding burden of compliance and financial auditing. Greeniosk is complete system that allows Medical Marijuana (MMJ) Dispensaries and Recreational Marijuana (MJ) Dispensaries to document and provide an audit and verification trail of each individual MMJ/MJ dispensary transaction.
The majority of MMJ Dispensaries have limited bank service access mainly due to requirements of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO). The Greeniosk system incorporates a large physical ATM Kiosk, with a state of the art CRM reporting system that provides a detailed financial transaction audit trail and addresses and resolves issues of the propriety of the dispensary operations. MMJ Dispensaries currently transact between $250,000 and $5,000,000 in annual revenues. The majority consist of cash transactions, however small numbers of dispensaries accept debit card payments. Because RICO concerns cause the majority of banks to decline dispensary deposits, they also miss out on potential MMJ credit card transactions
The Grilled Cheese Truck, Inc. (OTCQB: GRLD $ 4.05 )*
Cooks, sells, serves and promotes specialty grilled cheese sandwiches. Since 2009, The Grilled Cheese Truck has been serving areas of Southern California and Phoenix, AZ. David Danhi is an Executive Chef and began the company after spending thirty years in the food industry.
Grilled cheese is gaining popularity as a classic comfort food right along with pizza. The Grilled Cheese Truck is the only known gourmet food truck that has gone public and is the first and one of the largest gourmet grilled cheese truck in the U.S. The Company has 13 trucks and growing The Company has 13 trucks and its growth is legendary in L.A. The Grilled Cheese Truck was one of the premier gourmet food trucks to appear on the L.A. scene 5 years ago. Chef Danhi wanted to capitalize on the growing demand for food trucks and is recognized for his food crafting and grill cheese creations, such as the signature sandwich, “Cheesy Mac and RIB”. The grilled cheese sandwiches are slowly toasted, buttered and crispy, touted as the “ultimate grilled cheese sandwich”.
January ends with the commencement of the Company trading on OTCQB and the introduction of new CEO, Al Hodges. Hodges brings 35 yrs. of operations, management and restaurant experience. He has a track record for success as a performance driven executive who implements successful business plans. From concept to expansion, Hodges has built a series of successful businesses and driven up company value. The Grilled Cheese Truck has become a widely recognized name and has
Enzo Biochem ( ENZ: NYSE: $ 3.12 )
F2015 (July) got off to a solid start with Q1 (Oct) results continuing to affirm our belief that Enzo’s core businesses are improving. Once again, revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA were all better than projected, with revenue growth in both the clinical lab and life sciences businesses. Gross margin in both businesses continued to improve, as the ongoing shift toward higher value molecular testing and efforts to improve operational efficiency continue to bolster margins. The company’s balance sheet remains on good footing while catalysts in the form of new products and litigation remain in play. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating and $7 price target.
What keeps us excited about ENZ is (1) a clinical lab which is highly attractive to numerous strategic buyers; (2) a proprietary molecular diagnostic technology that could cut the cost of molecular testing by about 50%; and (3) IP litigation that could yield hundreds of millions of dollars over time
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Market Strategies Cycles
An interesting chart by Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac showed the last two major moves up for the S&P 500 of about 100% from 1996 to 2000 and 2002 to 2007 and the subsequent declines of 49% and 57% respectively. It also has the current ~200% up move since 2009 followed by question marks.
Excellent graphic and conversation piece and it dovetails right into our outlook and long term projection for the next cyclical bear market to be of the garden variety (~20-30%) and to mark the end of the current secular bear and the beginning of the Next Super Boom. So ran the numbers on the last two secular bears versus the current one.
One of the implications of the question marks is to strike fear in the hearts of investors that since the current up move is double that of the previous two that the next down leg will be even greater than the last two. Mr Hirsch suspects the opposite. As illustrated in the three charts below greater upside magnitude does not necessarily beget greater downside.
Examine the secular bear markets of the 1930s and 1940s and the 1970s and 1980s and see for yourself. The action of the next cyclical bear market will exhibit similar behavior as the final cyclical bears of the prior secular bears. In the previous two secular bears the first and middle down moves were most severe while the third and final of a more average magnitude.
At the end of the previous two secular bears in 1949 and 1982, at the outset of the secular bull markets and global booms, there was a massive shift in leadership and sector rotation. After WWII at the end of the 1940s the shift went from agriculture to manufacturing – Ike’s “military-industrial complex” he spoke of in his farewell address in 1961. In 1982 it was the shift from manufacturing to integrated circuits, computers, the internet and cellphones.
Over the next few years we will likely begin the next sector rotation from high-tech to the new leadership sectors, which may be biotech, healthcare, energy tech, cyber security or some new invention that is currently under development in someone’s garage or lab.
While the Hirsch organization firmly believes there is still upside left in the stock market as per their annual forecast, there does appear to be the beginning of a topping process that make take many moons, yet may occur later this year or early next year. Whenever the top comes (and we’ll be tracking that in the near term), we expect the bulk of the downside to transpire 2016-18 when the next secular bull is likely to begin.
Let’s face facts. Equities are no longer cheap; stocks are a bit rich by many metrics. The Fed is no longer providing the excessive liquidity as it has been in recent years, while other central banks are getting much easier. The US has benefitted from a weak dollar, which has recently gone from undervalued to fairly-valued. Our long/short equity strategies may help diversify, compliment and protect your existing stock portfolios.
The chart below is a weekly chart of the price of gold with the exchange-traded note (ETN) known as PowerShares DB Gold Double Short (DZZ) overlaid to show the inverse price correlation between the two trading vehicles. The line on the bottom section is the 40-year average seasonal tendency showing the market directional price trend with seasonal weakness highlighted in yellow. DZZ trades 2x the inverse of the daily price change of a single gold futures contract. On an average daily volume basis, DZZ is the most liquid “short” gold ETF or ETN.
As you can see in this next chart, DZZ has already made a clear move higher in response to gold’s retreat from its mid-January highs. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators applied to DZZ have all turned positive confirming the change in trend. DZZ could be bought on dips below $6.80. If purchased a stop loss of $5.98 is suggested. If gold slips back down to $1150 per ounce, then DZZ would likely trade above $8 per share.
As you can see in this next chart, DZZ has already made a clear move higher in response to gold’s retreat from its mid-January highs. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators applied to DZZ have all turned positive confirming the change in trend. DZZ could be bought on dips below $6.80. If purchased a stop loss of $5.98 is suggested. If gold slips back down to $1150 per ounce, then DZZ would likely trade above $8 per share.
ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) is an inverse (bearish) ETF that seeks to return two times the inverse of the daily performance of silver bullion, priced in U.S. dollars for delivery in London and is the top choice to trade this seasonality in the Almanac Investor ETF Portfolio. Average daily trading volume can be light, but when silver declines in earnest, trading activity in ZSL does expand quickly. ZSL can be bought on dips below $98.50. If purchased, employ a stop loss of $86.70. Should silver decline to test its lows from last November/December, ZSL could easily trade at a new high above $130.
Keep an eye on volatility. A sustained new series of highs in volatility, above 17 signals danger which would be negative for equities and bullish for gold. Silver is in the middle as it is both an industrial and precious metal.
February 2015 Strategy Calendar
Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
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