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Best Stocks To Buy December 2014
November 24, 2014 Options Trading Market Investing Strategies Newsletter in .pdf format — Click Here
November 24, 2014
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Where To Invest Now and
Options Trading Newsletter
Covering:
Options Trading Strategies
How To Trade Options
Stock Options Trading Alerts
Best Stocks To Buy December 2014
Where to Invest December 2014
Net Gain for the week $ 2,218
2014 Year To Date Profits $ 17,034
Over 170% Returns
$17,034 Profits for $10,000 Trading Account
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Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account Traders Comments
We have 1 open position:
Long TLT December 120 Calls
Funds in Use $ 456
Week 45 was the best week of the year for this account with an out-sized gain of $2,215 bringing YTD performance to a new high of the year at $17,184 or 172%.
This gain was primarily driven by our position in PPO 11/40 calls. We paid only $1.95 for the calls and the following week we had to sell the first half at $4.20 on the 100% Up Rule. The balance
of the gains were made the following week when the Company had a news announcement and the stock gapped up. Since the options (40s) were so deep in the money they weren’t trading so we sold the $42.50s @ $9.90 against the position. When the dust settled and the options expired on Friday we took the rest of the gain of just under $2,100 on the trade.
Some people might say that we were “just lucky” to be in the trade when the news hit and I would agree, but if you look at the last 3 years of performance you’d see that for every year, even in most quarters, we have had at least one and sometimes more of these really big winners. Last quarter it was AUXL where we were long around $18 and the stock moved up to $23 and then gapped up to $32…or as far back as July 2012 when we were short CMG and the stock gapped down $100 on bad earnings. The point is that our rules are there for a reason. It was much easier to hold the PPO position without having any money tied up in the trade. Most people make their mistake by being hyper-sensitive to losses because they over trade. There is little more gut-wrenching than becoming emotional because the loss might be too big. News comes and goes every-day. Most emotional sales are done at exactly the wrong time. Keeping risk in check makes it easier to sit with a position that you can “get lucky” with
..CAM
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
New Trades
Buy 8 STLD Dec $ 23 Calls @ 0.50
Buy 8 SCCO Dec $ 32 Calls @ 0.50
DATE | TRADES | PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
11/21 | This information is for Members OnlyGet The BestSpecial Membership Offer HERE | 9.83 | 1966 | 14 Gain | |
11/21 | 12.33 | 2466 | 2076 Gain | ||
11/20 | 1.07 | 428 | 260 Gain | ||
11/19 | 0.84 | 336 | 168 Gain | ||
11/17 | 0.15 | 300 | 300 Loss | ||
11/17 | 1.14 | 456 | |||
11/11 | 0.42 | 336 | |||
11/06 | 9.90 | 1980 | |||
11/04 | 4.20 | 840 | 450 Gain | ||
11/03 | 0.30 | 600 | |||
10/27 | 1.95 | 780 |
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
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MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.
Dow17,810.06
+175.32 +0.99% |
Nasdaq4712.97
+24.43 |
S&P 5002063.50
+23.68 +1.16% |
Transportation9094.16
+32.63 +0.36% |
Russell 20001172.42 -1.39 -0.12% |
Nasdaq 4251.32+26.34
+0.62% |
Gold (spot)1197.50
+12.50 +1.1% |
Silver (July)1639.5
+8.1 +0.5% |
Crude76.51
+0.69 +0.9% |
Heating Oil238.13
-0.38 +0.2% |
Unleaded Gas2.0439
+0.0223 +1.1% |
Natural Gas4.266
+0.246 +6.1% |
VIX13.31
+0.19 +1.5% |
Put/Call RatiosS&P 100
191/100’s +85/100’s |
Put/Call RatiosCBOE Equity
60/100’s -3/100’s
|
Bonds142-00 +10
3.05%- 0.00% |
10 Yr. Note126-22 – Flat 2.33%+ 0.01%
|
Copper303.15
-1.50 -0.5% |
CRB InflationIndex
269.11 +2.32 +0.9% |
Barron’s* Confidence79.4%
+1.0% |
S&P100914.78
+7.95 +0.88% |
5 Yr. Note119-207 + 025
1.62%+ 0.01%
|
Dollar88.28
+0.75 +1.1% |
DJ Utilities596.15
+10.11 +1.73% |
AAIIConfidence
Index |
Bullish49.1%
-8.8% |
Bearish23.8%
+4.5% |
Neutral27.1%
+4.3% |
M1 Money Supply+10.41%
November 10th
|
M-2 MoneySupply
+5.76% November10th
|
* Component Change in the Confidence Index
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 2048
Resistance S&P 500 2080
Support Levels DOW 17,685
Resistance DOW 17,900
Support Levels QQQ 102.75
Resistance QQQ 142.70
Support Levels NASDAQ 4655
Resistance NASDAQ 4793
$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and
New Stock Recommendations
New Trades
Buy 1200 EXCO Exco resources @ $ 3.10 O.B. ( Or Better )
Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | ||||
This information is for Members Only
Get The Best |
36.65 | 11/10 | |||||||
15.48 | 11/10 | ||||||||
14.21 | 10/16 | ||||||||
97.68 | 10/15 | ||||||||
34.99 | 09/09 | ||||||||
2.95 | 05/19 | ||||||||
0.407 | 03/14 | ||||||||
15.37 | 01/16 | ||||||||
32.64 | 12/23 | 32.21 sco | $ 920 | ||||||
4.08 | 8/12 | ||||||||
6.56 | 7/11 | ||||||||
12.10 | 5/23 | ||||||||
76.85 | 11/08/12 | ||||||||
0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco |
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Best Stocks To Buy December 2014
Where to Invest December 2014
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account
Investing Strategies Summary
1) Buy 16 STLD December 23 Calls @ $ 0.50
2) Buy 16 SCCO December 32 Calls @$ 0.50
There were three closed out long option positions last week with a gain of $ 4,100
There was also two closed out written Call positions netting a profit of $ 588.
For the full year to date we have gains of $ 46,133.
Open position losses fell slightly to $ 4,838.
There is one Open Option position:
The December TLT 120 Calls
The Stock table has the following remaining 15 positions:
AA, AAPL (2), COSWF, FCX, GSG, JBLU, MCF, NBG (3), REPR, RPTP, TEXQY, XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using a total of
$57,025 in the 15 open stock positions. There is one option position requiring
$ 912 making a total of
$ 57,937 in use, leaving
$ 42,063 in Cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
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Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Stock | Purchase Price | Purchase Date | Stop/Loss | Price/Date Sold | Profit/(Loss) | ||||
This information is for Members OnlyGet The BestSpecial Membership Offer HERE | 36.65 | 11/10 | |||||||
15.48 | 11/10 | ||||||||
14.21 | 10/16 | ||||||||
97.68 | 10/15 | ||||||||
34.99 | 09/09 | ||||||||
2.95 | 05/19 | ||||||||
0.407 | 03/14 | ||||||||
15.37 | 01/16 | ||||||||
32.64 | 12/23 | 32.21 sco | $ 920 | ||||||
4.08 | 8/12 | ||||||||
6.56 | 7/11 | ||||||||
12.10 | 5/23 | ||||||||
76.85 | 11/08/12 | ||||||||
0.22 | 10/22/12 | .12 sco |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the
This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data
Before the Open on top of the Row; After the close below the Economics
Monday | Before the open: Hangar ( HGR: 0.45 vs 0.62 ) Trina Solar ( TSL 0.16 vs 0.14 )Deadline for Iran and six world powers to come to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program: No Major Economic reports: After the close:Aegean Marine Petrol ( ANW 0.21 vs 0.16 ) Palo Alto Networks ( PANW 0.12 vs 0.08 ) Qihoo 360 Tech ( QIHU 0.61 vs 0.47 ) Willbros Group ( WG 0.11 vs -0.02 ) |
Tuesday | Brown Shoe ( BWS 0.68 vs 0.63 ) Campbell Soup ( CPB 0.72 vs 0.63 )Cracker Barrel ( CBRL 1.29 vs 1.22 ) Diana Shipping ( DSX -0.08 vs -0.04 )Tiffany ( TIF 0.77 vs 0.73 ) Yingli Green Energy ( YGE -0.07 vs =-.24 )
08:30 hrs GDP-2nd Estimate 3rd Qtr ( 3.3% vs 3.5% ) Implicit Price Deflator ( 1.3% vs Same ) 09:00 hrs Case Shiller 20-city Index ( 4.6% vs 5.6% ) 09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index ( NA vs + 0.5% ) 10:00 hrs Consumer Confidence Nov ( 96.0 vs 94.5 ) Analog Devices ( ADI 0.68 vs 0.62 ) Hewlett Packard ( HPQ 0.79 vs 1.10 ) |
Wednesday | Deere ( 1.14 vs 2.11 ) Seadrill ( SDRL: 0.64 vs 0.61 )07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 11/22 ( NA vs +4.9% )08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/22 ( 286K vs 291K )
Continuing Claims 11/15 ( 2373K vs 2330K ) 08:30 hrs Durable Goods Orders Oct ( -0.7% vs -1.3% ) D.G. Ex- Trans ( 0.5% vs -0.2% ) 08:30 hrs Personal Income Oct ( 0.4% vs 0.2% ) Personal Spending ( 0.3% vs -0.2% ) CORE PCE Prices ( 0.1% vs Same ) 09:45 hrs Chicago PMI Nov ( 63.0 vs 66.2 ) 09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment – Final for November ( Nov ( 89.9 vs 89.4 ) 10:00 hrs New Home Sales Oct ( 469K vs 467K ) 10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Oct ( 0.8% vs 0.3% ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 11/22 ( NA vs +2.608 Mln Bbls ) 11:00 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/22 ( NA vs -17bcf ) Guess ( GES 0.18 vs 0.42 ) Wet seal ( WTSL -0.28 vs -0.18 ) |
Thursday | Thanksgiving Markets Closed:The Opec Oil Cartel meets in Vienna. Unless they agree to at least an 8-10% cut, it will be a no event, just the opposite of the early seventies when they shocked the world with tight supplies and much higher prices.A strike against austerity is planned in Greece. |
Friday | Frontline ( FRO -0.14 vs -0.46 ) Iao Kun Group ( IKGH -0.11 vs 0.16 ) |
Market Strategies Fundamentals
The Dow and S&P 500 were very strong last week leading all indexes as they made new all- time highs. The S&P surged 1.16% to a new high close at 2063.50 while the Dow led by Boeing rallied 175 points to 17,810. Falling crude oil stocks have begun to encourage buying of retail stocks adding luster to normal seasonal influences. Lower pump prices are like a tax cut to consumers. Economic strength appears to be growing world-wide with the exception of Russia as a result of the lower energy prices.
The People’s bank of China cut its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.75% and its discount rate 40 basis points to 5.60%, which caused further bullishness world-wide to equities. China’s growth has declined to 7.5% down from 18% in 2011 and its weakest annual growth since 1990.
China’s Shanghai Composite rose 1.4% to end just short of three-year highs. With oil prices off 30% since June, China is importing record amounts of crude and storing it. Also, Tanker companies are recording their best profits in years. Lower oil prices are also helping both Japan, and New Zealand. Japan had announced two successive quarters of GDP declines, a huge 7.3% in their second quarter and 1.6% in the third quarter. Lower oil prices should enable Japan to record a surplus in the current fourth quarter. In New Zealand, credit card spending increased 6.7% year-over year.
European stocks continued to rally after across the board after ECB president Mario Draghi said Eurozone inflation ( or the lack thereof ) had become increasingly challenging and that the central bank was ready to act if current trends continued.
The decline in oil prices has been even a better bullish catalyst, putting cash money immediately in the pockets of consumers. Both Oil and pump prices have declined 16% since October. The S&P Oil and Gas Exploration Spider has gone from a high 12,670June 24th to a low of 7,925.63, a huge decline of
4,745 points or 37.5%. Since then, it has had a “dead cat bounce” to its 50-day moving average 9402. .
Wal-Mart ( WMT: $ 84.65 ) + 1.69 for the week or 2% continued to accelerate. For the month of November it has rallied from $ 76.27 on Oct 31st a gain of 8.38 or 11%.
The stock market likes noninflationary growth which is apparently the landscape.
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Market Strategies Economic Data
The Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook surged to 40.8 in November well beyond the level of prices which declined. Business activities in the Philadelphia area reached their highest level since December 1993. 40% of firms in their area saw their business activities improve while just 9% saw decreased activities.
The Shipments Index rose to 31.9 in November from 16.6 in October. New Orders spiked to 35.7 from 17.3. Unfilled Orders were reduced from 11.6 in October to 7.1 in November. Meanwhile, prices declined to the 19 level, not seen since the turn of the century.
Employment Conditions also improved. The Total Number of Employees Index jumped to 22.4 in November from 12.1 in October. The average workweek also expanded by 7.8%.
Category | NOV | OCT | SEP | AUG | JUL |
Total Index | 40.8 | 20.7 | 22.5 | 28.0 | 23.9 |
6-month Outlook | 57.7 | 54.5 | 56.0 | 66.4 | 58.1 |
Undervalued Small Cap Stocks
We have bought positions in each of these companies.
Target Energy* ( TEX.AX 0.045 Australia ), In the USA, ( TEXQY: $ 3.50 ) a new ADR.
This company trading at a nickel could earn more than where it is now trading. Perhaps 7 to 10 cents is in the
Cards. Their business valuation exceeds market cap.
Leo Motors ( LEOM $ 0.08 )*
Has merged with LGM, a potential to be the Tesla of Asia. We like it now, above its 13-day moving average. You have heard about a new short-circuit technology They have exclusive use of the circuit breaker prevention technology in Cars, Boats, and energy storage world-wide..
Many new breakthroughs in electric energy are coming.
Please go to www.leomotors.com ( English Version ) Risk is 3 cents.
RMS Medical Systems, Inc ( REPR 0.37 )*
Freedom 60 designs, markets, manufactures infusion devices portable, including needles and
easy to handle by patients. The RescueVac is also used in ambulances and planes for emergency suction.
Cleveland BioLabs, Inc ( CBLI $ 0.39 )*.
CBLI has done much research on cancer as well as developing a prevention for radiation sickness. This is a two for one play both cancer research and radiation protection. Just imagine the catastrophe if radioactive material falls into the wrong hands. The Russian Medical Federation has also invested heavily ( $ 23 million ) in this.
The Roswell Park Cancer Institute ( PPCI ) announced the publication of studies in “ Oncotarget” describing the preclinical efficacy of Curaxin CBLO137 as a single agent and in combination with the current standard-of-care therapy, gemcitabine, against different models of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma ( PDA ), including models of gemcitabine-resistant tumors. The studies were conducted by scientists at Roswell Park, SUNY Downstate Medical Center and Buffalo Biolabs, LLC. Pancreatic cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States and is one of the few cancers for which survival has not improved. Pancreatic cancer has the highest mortality rate of all major cancers; 94% of pancreatic cancer patients will die within five years of diagnosos. ( American Cancer Society: Cancer Facts and Figures 2014 )
Entolimod is being developed as a radiation treatment. Please go to www.cbiolabs.com for more pertinent information.
Labor Smart, Inc. ( LTNC: $ 0.01 )*
See Corporate Site
Top line sales growth is significant.
They deliver labor solutions at assigned jobsites ready for work while other services are still sending candidates to be interviewed.
Labor Smart delivers people-power to small and medium sized businesses in warehousing,
freight handling, light industrial services, manufacturing, social events, and retail industries.
They also support commercial construction and demolition industries with general labor and skilled trades people.
Labor Smart was founded in 2011, is based in Hiram, Georgia and currently operates 30 branch locations in the Southeast and Central States. Their growth model includes both new office establishments in addition to acquisitions.
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Stocks and ETF’s To Buy On A December Dip:
Notice the Flexibility for whatever the market direction.
Both the VIX and SPXU protect against declines while the UDOW and various stocks are from the long side. The UAL has had a nice run but should now be sold. We would also sell the BELFB . We have added Canadian Oil Sands COSWF
Symbol | Name | Business Description | PE | P/S | MV mln | Price | Buy Limit | Stop Loss |
COSWF | Can Oil Sands | Oil Recovery | 15.48 | 15.48 | 14.30 | |||
IIIN | Insteel industries | Metal fabrication | 29 | 0.7 | 411 | 22.31 | 21.22 | 21.22 |
KR | Kroger | Retail Food | 17 | 0.24 | 24.6K | 58.37 | 48.90 | 46 |
XOM | Exxon Mobil | Energy | 13.4 | 1.1 | 420K | 96.81 | 90.50 | 92.50 |
UAL | United Cont Hld | Transportation | 16 | 1.2 | 18.1K | 55.33 | 46 | 48 |
UDOW | Ultra Pro Dow 30 | ETF | 141.28 | 104.81 | 131 | |||
DE | John Deere | Farm Equipment | 9.4 | 0.80 | 29.0K | 87.07 | 80 | 83 |
BELFB | Bell Fuse Inc B | Electronics | 9.5 | 0.74 | 276 | 26.24 | 23 | 24.50 |
SPXU | Ultra Short S&P | Hedge purposes | 38.50 | 43.20 | 38 | |||
DD | DuPont | Chemicals | 21 | 1.71 | 61.3K | 72.15 | 64.80 | 63 |
VXX | VIX Volatility | Hedge Portfolio | 27.92 | 27.10 | 28 | |||
MOS | Mosaic Company | Agriculture Chemicals | 70 | 2.10 | 15.3K | 47.21 | 42.28 | 41.70 |
Market Strategies Cycles
If the markets have a dip coming it most likely will be this coming week.
Last year the S&P 500 had a dip from Mid-October to November 20th from 1,461 to 1,343 or 8.1%. We are overdue for some downside action, not knowing what will be the catalyst. The market is making new highs despite a long list of geopolitical concerns and very high valuations. The very low volatility is a sign of complacency. Small Cap stocks may have already given a sell signal. It may be interesting to note that the Dow 14-day moving average fell from 73.33 to 66.67 on Friday’s rise. Conversely, gold and mining stocks may have given a buy signal on stochastics and other technical indicators.The Opec meeting results will probably be known by Friday for those who are trading.
Perhaps recovery is set to happen in the Eurozone, which had been the weakest economic area as the result of Russian sanctions. Greece, especially, is poised for recovery. It turns out that the Greek recovery began in the first quarter of the year when it grew by 0.8%. It slowed to 0.3% in the second quarter, but then rebounded to plus 0.7% in the third quarter, much better than the rest of the Eurozone which grew by 0.2% in the third quarter. Growth in Greece would aid our long positions in the National Bank of Greece ( NBG: $ 2.47 )..
Because, December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.7% on each index. It is also the top Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 month and second best for NASDAQ . Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.
Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps in December near the middle of the month. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on Christmas Eve day and lasts until the second trading day of 2015. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are an impressive 1.5%.
This is the first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last four times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by two flat years (1994 and 2004) and two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
December Triple Witching Week is more favorable to the S&P 500 with Monday up ten of the last fourteen years while Triple-Witching Friday is up twenty-three of the last thirty-two years with an average 0.4% gain. The entire week has logged gains twenty-four times in the last thirty years. The week after December Triple Witching is the best of all weeks after Triple Witching for DJIA and is the only one with a clearly bullish bias, advancing in twenty-two of the last thirty-two years. However, three straight years of declines from 2006-2008 and 2012 have tempered its bullish bias. Small caps shine especially bright with a string of bullish days that runs from December 16 to 26.
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Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers
Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.
When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.