April 14, 2014
Market Strategies Newsletter
Balanced Investment Strategies
Sample Issue
Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
Over 284% Gains In 2013
A $10,000 portfolio would be
worth $38,479
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
$10,000 Trading Account
Traders Comments
There are two open positions:
BAC May 16 Calls
MSFT May $ 40 Calls
Funds in Use $ 1220
Profit for the week $ 489
Last week we had only one closing transaction that resulted
in a gain of $489,
bringing the YTD loss back down to $1,773.
In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479
Over 284% Returns
A $10,000 Portfolio would be
worth $38,479
The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.
284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013
171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012
77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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These are for two new positions on the long side of both MSFT and BAC. The new purchases have had pullbacks to recent breakouts and have good support just below the closes.
BAC broke to the upside from this level at year-end that took it first to $17.50 in less than 10 days and after a consolidation up from $15.50 to just over $18. This puts BAC just 5% over Its 200 day MA, down from 20% over just 3 weeks ago. MSFT has support between $38 and $38.50 and both are oversold.
If we have a pullback like the last several then we’re almost there. We are down 8% from the recent high and we’ve also cut the distance above the 200 day MA by half. We could go lower and pass expectations, but I would be surprised if we broke support at $1,750-1760 in the S & P 500.
Bullish sentiment has also collapsed to just 28.5% well below the historic average of 39%.
This is a good “contrary” indicator, and those numbers are from Thursday before the big sell off.
One other issue that didn’t get much play during the week was the fact that there were several new taxes this year that may have been forgotten until the filing deadline Tuesday. For money to be available there may have been some unexpected add-on selling. Nothing like wanting to nail down available funds in an already falling market……..Have a good week.
…Charles
Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE |
COST |
PROCEEDS |
RESULTS |
04/11 |
Bought 10 BAC May 16 Calls |
0.46 |
460 |
|
|
04/11 |
Sold 3 TLT April 108 Calls |
2.60 |
|
780 |
489 Gain |
04/10 |
Bought 8 MSFT May 40 Calls |
0.95 |
760 |
|
|
03/27 |
Sold 3 TLT March 108 Calls
( 100% Profit Rule ) |
1.94 |
|
582 |
291 Gain |
03/24 |
Bought 6 TLT March 108 Calls |
0.97 |
582 |
|
|
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Over 284% Gains In 2013
A $10,000 portfolio would be
worth $38,479
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
Market Laboratory
Weekly Changes For market Indicators
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
Dow 16,026.75 -385.96 -2.35% |
Nasdaq 3999.73 127.99 -3.10% |
S&P 500 1815.69 -49.40 -2.65% |
Transportation 7362.39 -208.37 -2.75% |
Russell 2000 1111.44 -41.94 -3.64% |
Nasdaq 100 3446.85 -92.53 -2.61% |
Gold (spot) 1318.70 +14.50 +1.1% |
Silver (Dec ) 1994.6 No Chg 0.00% |
Crude 103.74 +2.60 +2.6% |
Heating Oil 293.32 +2.53 +0.9% |
Unleaded Gas 3.0144 +0.0831 +2.8% |
Natural Gas 4.62 +0.181 +4.1% |
VIX 17.03 +3.07 +22.0% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 124/100’s -4/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 61/100’s +5/100’s
|
Bonds 134-25 +1-26 3.485% -0.165% |
10 Yr Note 123-254 +1-04 2.62% -0.10%
|
Copper 304.15 +1.90 +0.6% |
CRB Inflation Index 309.39 +4.55 +1.5% |
Barron’s Confidence 71.4% -1.1% |
S&P100 804.90 -19.68 -2.39% |
5 Yr Note 119-25 +23 1.567% -0.009% |
Dollar 79.45 -0.97 -1.2% |
DJ Utilities 534.32 +2.71 +0.51% |
AAII Confidence Index |
Bullish 28.5% -6.9% |
Bearish 34.1% +7.3% |
Neutral 37.4% -0.4%
|
M1 Money Supply +8.87% March 31st
|
M-2 Money Supply +6.02% March 31st
|
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
New Stock Recommendations
$ 100,000 account
Buy 15,000 shares AIVN* at $ 0.03
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock |
Purchase Price |
Purchase Date |
Stop/Loss |
|
Price/Date Sold |
|
Profit/(Loss) |
SPXU 100 |
58.01 |
03/17 |
|
$ 60.24 04/11 |
$ 233 |
||
XRGYF 5000* |
0.407 |
03/14 |
|
|
|
||
OSIR 300 |
15.94 |
02/13 |
|
|
|
||
INSM 300 |
15.37 |
01/29 |
|
|
|
||
GRPN 500 |
10.40 |
01/28 |
|
|
|
||
AA 300 |
11.79 |
01/28 |
|
|
|
||
RPTP 400 |
15.37 |
01/16 |
|
|
|
||
AA 500 |
10.06 |
01/10 |
|
|
|
||
WLT 300 |
16.22 |
12/23 |
|
|
|
||
GSG 150 |
32.64 |
12/23 |
|
|
|
||
NBG 300 |
4.08 |
8/12 |
|
|
|
||
TEXQY* 200 |
6.56 |
7/11 |
|
|
|
||
NBG 300 |
12.10 |
5/23 |
|
|
|
||
HL 1000 |
4.10 |
3/04 |
2.64sco |
|
|
||
AAPL 10 |
538 |
11/08/12 |
|
|
|
||
AAPL 5 |
636 |
10/9/12 |
|
|
|
||
REPR* 5000 |
0.22 |
10/22/12 |
.12 sco |
|
|
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the Subscriber Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Over 284% Gains In 2013
A $10,000 portfolio would be worth $38,479
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
We had two closed out positions last week,
one stock position the SPXU and the remaining TLT Calls
gaining a total of $ 1467.
Our losses for the new year were reduced to $ 5,432.
For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556.
We have open position losses now of about $ 11,939 most of which are in small cap bio-med stocks held over from last year.
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American ( NAT ) and JP Morgan.
We have one long option position:
TLT April 108 Calls
The Stock table has the following 16 positions:
AA(2), AAPL (2), DSX, GRPN, GSG, HL, INSM,
NBG (2), REPR, RPTP, TEXQY, WLT,XRGYF
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical
$ 100,000 and are using
$ 2,440 in two options position and
$ 64,833 in 16 stock positions
totaling $ 67,273 with
$ 32,727 in cash.
These figures are approximate.
We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Balanced Investment
Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option |
Cost |
Date |
Sold |
Date |
Profit/(Loss) |
BAC May 16
20 lots |
Calls 0.46 |
04/11/14 |
|
|
|
MSFT May 40
8 lots |
Calls 0.95 |
04/10/14 |
|
|
|
TLT April 108
12 lots Leaves 6 lots |
Calls 0.97 |
03/24/14 |
1.94 ( Sold half on 100% Profit Rule)
2.60 ( Sold Balance TLT Calls
|
03/27/14
04/11/14
|
$ 582
$ 978 |
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit:
PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm
To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate
This Weeks’ Balanced Investment
Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | Citigroup release quarterly results
before the opening ( 1.15 vs 1.29 ) JB Hunt ( 0.61 vs 0.61) M&T Bank 1.63 vs 2.06
08:30 hrs Retail Sales March ( 1.0% vs 0.3% ) Ex-Auto ( 0.5% vs 0.3% )
10:00 hrs Business Inventories Feb ( 0.6% vs 0.4% )
Under Armour splits 2 for 1
|
Tuesday | 08:30 hrs CPI Mar ( 0.1% vs 0.1% )
CORE ( 0.1% vs 0.1% )
08:30 hrs Empire Manufacturing Apr ( 7.5 vs 5.6 )
09:00 hrs Net Long Term TIC Flows Feb ( NA vs $7.3Bln )
10:00 hrs NAHB Housing Mkt Index Apr ( 50 vs 47 )
Intel ( 0.37 vs 0.40 ) U.S. Bancorp ( 0.73 vs Same )
|
Wednesday | Before the Open
Constellation Brands ( STZ 0.76 vs 0.47 )
07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 04/05 ( NA vs -1.6% )
08:30 hrs Housing Starts March ( 955K vs 907K ) Building Permits ( 1003K vs 1018K )
09:15 hrs Industrial Production Mar ( 0.5% vs 0.6% )
Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks via teleconference at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta.
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 04/12 ( NA vs 4.030Mln bbls )
14:00 hrs Fed’s Beige Book ( NA )
Amer Exp ( 1.30 vs 1.15 ) Cap One (1.70 vs 1.79 ) Google ( 12.33 vs 11.58 ) IBM 2.55 vs 3.00 URI ( 0.77 vs 0.19 )
|
Thursday | Baker Hughes ( .79 vs .65 )
DuPont (1.59 vs 1.56 ) GE (32 vs 39) BLK (4.14 vs 3.65 ) CMG 2.85 vs 2.45
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 04/12 ( 312K rising from 300K ) Continuing Claims 04/05 ( 2800K vs 2776K )
10:00 hrs Philadelphia Fed Apr ( 8.6 vs 9.0 )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 04/12 ( NA vs 4.0 bcf )
Union Pacific ( 2.37 vs 2.03 ) United Health ( 1.09 vs 1.16 )
|
Friday | All markets are closed in the U.S. and
all other major global markets for Good Friday. |
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
Economic Data
Expectations for the coming week are for good economic numbers: Retail Sales on Monday should be well above expectations of + 1.0%. On Tuesday the April Homebuilder survey should rise to at least 50 from the ridiculous low numbers of 47 last month. Empire State Manufacturing should be back on the mend following weather obstructions. March Housing Starts on Wednesday should be above expectations and March Industrial Production is expected to rise a lofty 0.5% above last month’s reading. The numbers should offer competition to the bears who have had the upper hand. The greenback is weak again.
The dollar broke below its strong uptrend at about 81 last year, but not much happened as a result. Now we have a new trendline, and a new support level around 79. One supposes that a break below this trendline could send the dollar tumbling, but let’s remember just how many times the US dollar has been declared dead, only to frustrate the bears by regaining life….in any case, the pressure’s on it again.
Earnings are looking to fare better this week as well. Please look at the table: There are over 200 companies reporting.
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
Trading Fundamentals
Stocks collapsed last week led by the Russell, off 3.64%. Nasdaq lost 3.10% followed by the Transportation Averages, off 2.75%, the S&P off 2.65% and the Dow 2.35%.
The second and third quarters have been the worst out of the 16 quarters of a presidential cycle.
We are already in the “sell in May and go away” which began early this year. We continue to want to buy severe weakness as we look for much higher prices by year-end.
Meanwhile one needs to be flexible hedging by selling rallies in QQQ’s and S&P’s down to support levels provided in the technical section below. The S&P 200 day moving average comes in at about 1760. We could get close if volatility continues. Both earnings and economics will be better this week than last week. Alcoa, JPM and Wells did nothing to encourage investors.
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1798 – 1770
Resistance S&P 500 1837
Support Levels DOW 15,870 – 16,000
Resistance DOW 16,170
Support Levels QQQ 81.90 – 82.65
Resistance QQQ 84.40
Support Levels NASDAQ 3920
Resistance NASDAQ 4075
Balanced Investment Market Strategies
Cycles
If the market continues to track past midterm years reasonably closely, as they have done for the past three months, then a mid-April top and a rough, down May and June are likely. Earnings (real and Q2 estimates), economic data and monetary policy will need to remain supportive in order to stave off typical Q2 & Q3 midterm year weakness. Thus far, economic data has been soft and monetary policy is less supportive each month as the Fed continues to trim QE at each meeting. Then, October has often begun a resumption of the bull trend as in the chart below.
After gold peaked in mid-March, its steady decline through month-end also pulled down mining ETFs. The worst was Market Vectors Jr Gold Miners (GLDX), off 12.4% in March. However, GLDX is up 28% year-to-date. If gold holds support in the $1280-1300 per ounce price range, new long positions in gold-related ETFs should be considered.
Margin debt had climbed to a new all-time high well over $ 450Billions. The chart below illustrates the relationship between prices and debt. There is an uncertain relationship between high prices and margin debt.
The only certainty is that high margin debt contributes to high volatility and that tax time may be having an effect. The following chart shows the failure of the market to make new highs at a time when the dollar is weak.
American International Ventures Looks like a new low cost opportunity ( AIVN $ 0.0275 ). We will bid $ 0.03 for some shares. We were stopped out at $ 0.08. We have a new research report available for the asking. I am already a large shareholder about 4 million shares. I am not currently paid for I.R.
Over 284% Gains In 2013
A $10,000 portfolio would be worth $38,479
For Free Where To Invest Your Money Now
High Return Investments Trade Alerts
PrincetonResearch.com/alerts.htm
Rule 17B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton Research has been paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy.
Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.
We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.045 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s. Princeton is paid about 500,000 shares of Leo Motors.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
(702) 650-3000
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street,
Las Vegas, Nevada 89121