
Balanced Investing Strategies
November 4, 2013
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
Covering High Return
Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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Market Strategies Stock Options Trading
$10,000 Account
There are five open positions:
BAC Dec 14 Calls
CSCO Nov 23 Calls
DSX Dec 12 Calls
NBG Jan 2015 7 Calls and
YHOO Nov 33 Puts
Funds in Use $ 2,544
Market Strategies Stock Options Trading
$10,000 Account
Traders Comments
This week we had a loss of $293
bringing YTD performance down to
a profit of $29,433
Over 294% Returns
Total funds in use are $2954, and total equity is $39,433.
The markets rallied into the close of the week with the S&P 500 making a new closing high, the Dow coming close and the NASDAQ down just slightly. However, the Russell was down over 3% in the last 3 days. The move toward more defensive, high dividend issues makes me wonder if the rally might be getting a little long in the tooth.
While I reversed my overall sentiment a couple of weeks ago to a more bullish stance, I am still fighting with the old adage, “they always look best at the top and worst at the bottom.” Trading defensively, we have been prepared for downside action while maintaining upside opportunity.
The key, enabling me to make a 290% return, mostly from the long side, while I was slightly bearish on the overall market remains the careful selection of individual stocks.
Add to that our 50% down rule and 100% up rule and you have a profitable formula.
Market Strategies Stock Options Trading Chart
$10,000 Account
New Trades
Buy 8 PETM November $ 72.50 Calls @ $ 0.65
Buy 4 WSM November 52.50 Puts @ 1.10
Buy 4 DOW December 39 Calls @ 1.10
DATE |
TRADES |
PRICE | COST | PROCEEDS | RESULTS |
11/1 |
This Information Is For Members Only |
0.49 |
490 |
|
|
10/31 |
0.55 |
|
440 |
440 Loss |
|
10/31 |
0.42 |
|
252 |
498 Loss |
|
10/31 |
0.45 |
|
|
|
|
10/29 |
0.99 |
|
990 |
140 gain |
|
10/29 |
0.85 |
850 |
|
|
|
10/29 |
2.56 |
|
1280 |
290 Gain |
|
10/29 |
1.63 |
|
815 |
215 Gain |
|
10/28 |
0.94 |
564 |
|
|
|
10/24 |
1.25 |
750 |
|
|
|
10/22 |
1.98 |
990 |
|
|
|
10/21 |
1.20 |
600 |
|
|
|
10/21 |
0.73 |
730 |
|
|
|
10/21 |
1.10 |
880 |
|
|
|
10/18 |
0.45 |
450 |
|
|
Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
Subscriber Members Only
TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
MArket Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect
See this Table in the
Balanced Investing Strategies Newsletter in .pdf format – Click Here
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
1) Buy 500 ARAY Mkt ( closed at $ 6.71 )
2) Buy 2000 BSDM Mkt ( closed at 1.58 )
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
Stock |
Purchase Price |
Purchase Date |
Stop/ Loss |
Price/ Date Sold |
Profit/ (Loss) |
This Information Is For Members Only |
15.40 |
9/19 |
|
|
|
5.09 |
9/17 |
4.60 SCO |
5.01 10/23 |
( $ 80 ) |
|
16.20 |
9/13 |
|
|
|
|
10.80 |
9/4 |
|
|
|
|
14.41 |
8/28 |
|
|
|
|
13.37 |
8/23 |
|
|
|
|
14.55 |
8/23 |
|
13.98 10/31 |
( $ 228 ) |
|
19.52 |
8/19 |
|
|
|
|
15.05 |
8/19 |
|
|
|
|
4.08 |
8/12 |
|
|
|
|
6.56 |
7/11 |
|
|
|
|
12.10 |
5/23 |
|
|
|
|
20.35 |
5/09 |
|
|
|
|
22.20 |
4/22 |
|
|
|
|
4.10 |
3/04 |
|
|
|
|
48.60 |
11/26/12 |
|
|
|
|
538 |
11/08/12 |
|
|
|
|
636 |
10/9/12 |
|
|
|
|
35.27 |
8/31/12 |
|
24.24 10/23 |
( $ 1654 ) |
|
.25 |
3/12/12 |
.08 sco |
|
|
|
0.22 |
10/22/12 |
.12 sco |
|
|
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations And Overall Comments
New Trades:
1) Buy 16 PETM November $ 72.50 Calls @ $ 0.65
2) Buy 8 WSM November $ 52.50 Puts @ $ 1.10
3) Buy 8 DOW December 39 Calls @ $ 1.10
We lost $ 814.00 in closed out positions last week
reducing our profits for the year
to a hypothetical $ 60,020
Returns of Over 60%
not counting open positions losses of about $ 13,197
We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple and JP Morgan.
We have five long options positions:
The Stock table has the following 18 positions:
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000 and
are using $ 5,188 in five options positions and
$ 54,551 in 18 stock positions
totaling $ 59,739 with
$ 40,261.00 in cash
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the Market Strategies
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated
- When the option has doubled sell half the position
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
Option |
Cost |
Date |
Sold |
Date |
Profit/ (Loss) |
This Information Is For Members Only |
Calls 0.49 |
11/01/13 |
|
|
|
Calls 0.45 |
10/31/13 |
|
|
|
|
Calls 0.85 |
10/29/13 |
0.99 |
10/30/13 |
$ 280 |
|
Puts 0.94 |
10/28/13 |
|
|
|
|
Calls 1.25 |
10/24/13 |
0.42 (50% stop loss rule) |
10/31/13 |
( $ 996 ) |
|
Calls 1.98 |
10/22/13 |
2.56 |
10/29/13 |
$ 580 |
|
Calls 1.20 |
10/21/13 |
1.63 |
10/29/13 |
$ 430 |
|
Calls 1.10 |
10/21/13 |
0.55 (50% stop loss rule) |
10/31/13 |
( $ 880 ) |
|
Calls 0.73 |
10/21/13 |
|
|
|
|
Calls 0.45 |
10/18/13 |
|
|
|
Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
TO GET OUR TRADE ALERTS BY TEXT MESSAGE AND
THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
Visit:
PrincetonResearch.com/investment-strategies.htm
To Lock In Your SPECIAL Low Subscription Rate
This Weeks’ Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | Earnings before the Open:
Kellogg .89 vs .82 Sysco .48 vs .58
10:00 hrs Factory Orders Aug ( 0.3% vs -2.4% ) Factory Orders Sept ( 1.8% vs Unknown )
|
Tuesday | 10:00 hrs ISM Services Oct ( 54.0 vs 54.4m )
Earnings after the close: Tesla ( 0.10 vs -0.92 )
|
Wednesday | 11/2 MBA Mortgage Index 11/02 ( NA vs 6.4% )
10:00 hrs Leading Indicators Sept ( 0.6% vs 0.7% )
Crude Inventories 11/2 ( NA vs 4.087 )
|
Thursday | 07:30 hrs Challenger Job Cuts Oct ( NA vs 19.1% )
08:30 hrs Initial Claims 11/02 ( 335K vs 340K ) Continuing Calims 10/26 ( 2863K vs 2881K )
08:30 hrs GDP-Adv 3rd Qtr ( 1.9% vs 2.5% ) Implicit Price deflator ( 1.4% vs 0.6% )
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 11/02 ( NA vs 38 bcf )
15:00 hrs Consumer Credit Sep ( $ 11.0B vs $ 13.6B )
|
Friday | 08:30 hrs Nonfarm Payrolls Oct ( 100K vs 148K )
Private Payrolls ( 110K vs 128K ) Unemployment Rate Oct ( 7.3% vs 7.2% ) Hourly Earnings Oct ( 0.2% vs 0.1% ) Ave Workweek Oct ( 34.4 vs 34.5 )
08:30 hrs Personal Income Sept ( 0.2% vs 0.4% ) Personal Spending ( 0.2% vs 0.3% ) CORE PCE Prices Sept ( 0.1% vs 0.2% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Nov ( 75.3 vs 75.2 ) |
Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
Earnings were mixed with extremes on both sides. On the plus side:
First Solar ( FSLR: $ 59.14 ) + $ 6.34 or 12% for the week made a new yearly high beating expectations.
MasterCard ( MA: $ 737.48 ) + 13.70 or +1.9% on the week.
Burger King ( BKW: $ 21.00 ) + $ 1.24 also beat on both top and bottom lines
Exxon Mobil had a nice week ( XOM: $ 89.82 ) rising $ 1.82 or 2.1% on the week. Exxon benefitted from an improvement in crack spreads.
On the negative side:
Sony ( SNE: $ 16.75 ) – $ 2.51 or -13%;
Crocs ( CROX: $ 12.38 ) -$1.30 or -0.5% had a terrible top line miss.
Chevron ( CVX: $ 118.01 ) -$ 2.58 0r 2.1% missed both on top and bottom lines unlike Exxon Mobil.
Otherwise, markets we mixed and when earnings season ends might have difficulty finding an encore. Only six of the 10 Dow Industry groups were slightly higher: Technology gained 1.30%;
Consumer Goods 0.66%;
Consumer Services 0.56%;
Health Care 0.38%;
Technology 0.25% and
Industrials 0.04%.
Financials led all losers minus 1.27%;
Basic Materials fell 1.12%;
Utilities reversed their winning ways of the past few weeks losing 0.64% while
Oil and Gas fell 0.46%.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Industrial Production gained 0.6%. The headline number is undoubtedly striking for its perceived strength. However, that thought process is actually a misnomer. Rather than coming from manufacturing growth, almost the entire gain came from a 4.4% increase in utilities production.
After five consecutive months of declines from cooler-than-normal temperatures, utility production returned to more normal levels as weather conditions reverted to their averages.
Manufacturing growth, which is key for economic growth, increased a very modest 0.1% in September, down from a 0.5% gain in August. Motor vehicles production increased 2.0% in September after increasing 5.2% in August. Without the motor vehicles production gain, manufacturing production would have been flat and total industrial production would have only increased by 0.5%.
Motor vehicle assemblies increased to 11.55 mln SAAR in September from 11.16 mln SAAR in August. That was the most assemblies since 11.84 mln SAAR vehicles were assembled in April 2006. Auto assemblies increased to 4.48 mln SAAR from 4.23 mln SAAR and truck assemblies increased to 7.07 mln SAAR from 6.67 mln SAAR.
Retail Sales were lackluster falling 0.1% against +0.2% last month.
Consumer Confidence was just 71.2% well below expectations of 73.1 and September’s 80.2 number. The Chicago PMI report rose sharply to 65.9 well above
55 expected and 55.7, the difference being the largest one-month gain in thirty years.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 1738
Resistance S&P 500 1787
Support Levels DOW 15,434
Resistance DOW 15,760
Support Levels QQQ 8186
Resistance QQQ 8379
Support Levels Nasdaq 3884
Resistance Nasdaq 4017
Market Strategies Cycles
Stock markets are in overbought territory. Interest rates are likely to be an impeding factor as they will tend to rise at this point in the economic cycle. Second day down patterns should be good buy opportunities. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA and S&P 500 month since 1950. Since 1971, November ranks third for NASDAQ. November is also third best for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 fourth best since 1979.
November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.
In post-election years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 12 of the last 15 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.7%. S&P 500 has been up in 11 of the past 15 post-election years. Small cap perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 8 post-election years, averaging 2.6%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%) and 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo).
Being a bullish month November has six bullish days, though it does have weak points. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. Russell 2000 is notably bearish on the 12th trading day of the month, when the small-cap benchmark has risen just four times in the last 29 years (since 1984). The Russell 2000’s average decline is 0.52% on the day. Recent weakness around Thanksgiving has shifted DJIA and S&P 500 strength to mirror that of NASDAQ and Russell 2000 with the majority of bullish days at the beginning and end of the month. A good way to trade Thanksgiving is to go long into weakness the week before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
Disclaimer – Rule 17 B Attestations
Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton will be engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the two small penny stocks ( REPR and AIVN ) we represent for a total outlay of $ 4,725 is well worth the risk. The Target ADR trades at about $ 5.90 in U.S. vs 0.065 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 500 U.S. ADR’s.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King (702) 650-3000
Or
Charles Moskowitz (781) 826-8882
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Phone: (702) 650-3000
Fax: (702) 697-8944