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March 11, 2013
Market Strategies Newsletter
Sample Issue
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Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To
Make Money In Up Or Down Markets
A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)
Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz
Market Strategies
$10,000 Options Trading Account
This week we made $765
bringing our YTD performance to $10,822
For Returns Of Over 108%
Open Positions:
New Trades for this week:
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Options Trading Strategies Comments
The market seems to shrug off anything to do with the Sequester and if you listen to the talking heads on the major networks, the “quality” of the earning that are driving us is great.
The disconnect between the economy and the stock market also continues. While earnings do in fact continue to grow, revenues have been a bit on the light side. Productivity has dropped as wages rise.
At some point we will have to deal with an unemployment rate that falls on the U6 data…this includes the participation factor of those that have given up looking for work and are no longer seeking employment. The U6 rate is 50% higher than the “headline” number. Too many are able to obtain welfare without looking very hard.
All this said, the market continues to have only 1 or 2 day declines before starting back up. There are so many looking for the coming correction that anything but a debacle is just an excuse to be a buyer
….CAM
Where To Invest Now
Options Trading Strategies Table
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Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the
VIP Subscriber Members Only TEXTING SERVICE TO
RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.
Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific.
We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.
Market Strategies Where To Invest Now
Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes
Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance
and may be incorrect
Dow 14,397.07 +307.41 +2.18% |
Nasdaq 3244.37 +74.63 +2.35% |
S&P 500 1551.18 +32.98 +2.17% |
Transportation 6,143.48 +158.58 +2.65% |
Russell 2000 942.50 +27.77 +3.04% |
Nasdaq 100 2804.11 +56.36 +2.05% |
Gold (spot) 1576.60 +4.70 +0.03% |
Silver (Dec ) 2894.8 +45.8 +1.6% |
Crude 91.95 +1.27 +1.4% |
Heating Oil 297.49 +4.48 +1.5% |
Unleaded Gas 3.2035 +0.0749 +2.4% |
Natural Gas 3.629 +0.5% |
VIX 12.59 -2.77 +18.0% |
Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 169/100’s +17/100’s |
Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity 61/100’s -9/100’s
|
Bonds 141-00 -3-11 3.255% +0.19% |
10 Yr Note 130-02-1-18 3.255 +0.213%
|
Copper 350.90 +0.80 +0.2% |
CRB Inflation Index 294.38 +4.02 +1.4% |
Barron’s Confidence 68.8% +1.0% |
S&P100 698.27 +14.62 +2.14% |
5 Yr Note 123-107-237 0.897% +0.151% |
Dollar 82.73 +0.42 +0.5% |
DJ Utilities 488.48 +7.09 +1.47% |
AAII Confidence Index |
||
Bullish 31.1% +2.7% |
Bearish 38.5% +1.9% |
Neutral 30.4% -4.6% |
M1 Money Supply +10.93% Feb 25th |
M-2 Money Supply +6.18% Feb 25th |
M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.
New Stock Recommendations
Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio
Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.
No New Stock Trades for the coming Week unless they are Texted to you.
Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.
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Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.
$100,000 Trading Portfolio
Options Trading Strategies
Recommendations And Overall Comments
We gained $ 2,745
in closed out positions last week
Our profits for the year
increased to a hypothetical $ 26,274
We have five options positions:
The Stock table includes the following eighteen positions:
The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.
We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $ 5,790.00
in five options positions, $ 71,412.00 in the 18 stock positions, a total of $ 77,202.00 with 22,798.00 in cash.
These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.
Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.
Previous Week’s Recommendations and
Rules for the
$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account
- All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
- When the option has doubled sell half the position.
- Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
- The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)
- The options will be followed until closed out.
- Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price
NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!
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MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES
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Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.
This Weeks’ Market Strategies
Economic Numbers and Media Data
Monday | Independent Community Bankers of America’s |
Convention begins in Las Vegas.
Dick’s Sporting Goods DKS
(est 1.06) and Comverse
CNSI report before the open.
Analogic ALOG after the close.Tuesday14:00 hrs Treasury Budget
Feb ( -$205B vs -$ 237B )
Wednesday07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index
03/09 ( NA vs 14.8% )
08:30 hrs Retail Sales Feb
( 0.5% vs 0.1% )
Ex-Auto ( 0.5% vs 0.2% )
08:30 hrs Export Prices Feb ( NA vs +0.5% )
Import Prices rising much slower
( NA vs +0.2% )
10:00 hrs Business Inventories Jan
( 0.4% vs 0.1% )
10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 03/09
( NA vs 3.833 mln Bbls )Thursday08:30 hrs Initial Claims 03/09
( 350K vs 340K )
Continuing Claims 03/02
( 3103K vs 3094K )
08:30 hrs Trade Balance Jan
( -$43.0B vs -$38.5B )
08:30 hrs PPI Feb
( 0.7% vs 0.2% )
CORE PPI ( 0.2% Unchanged )
08:30 hrs Current Account Balance
4thQTR(-$112.3B vs-$107.5B)
10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories
03/09 ( NA vs -146BCF )
Friday08:30 hrs CPI Feb ( 0.5% vs 0.0% )
CORE CPI ( 0.2% vs 0.3% )
08:30 hrs Empire Mfg Mar
( 6.5 vs 10.0 )
09:00 hrs Net Long Term TIC Flows
Jan ( NA vs $ 64.2B )
09:15 hrs Industrial Production
Feb ( 0.4% vs -0.1% )
Capacity Utilization
( 79.4% vs 79.1% )
09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment March
( 77.8 vs 77.6 )
Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals
Stocks continued to set records. The Dow closed at 14,397, a gain of 15.2% since November 15th. The outside day up November 16th proved to be the first of many such patterns, which continued November 28th, December 5th, December 31st and January 15th. Every second day down has been a buy and might continue in such a pattern through the next week. March historically comes in like a lion, goes out weak.
All Ten Dow Industrial groups were strong but not necessarily over-done. Basic Materials gained 3.26% as the leader. Financials followed gaining 3.07%. The FAS ( FAS: 162.70 ) Financial ETF rose every day last week up 13.05 points or 8.8%. Dow Industrials rose 2.62% and Consumer Services were not far behind at plus 2.61%. Consumer Services includes Airlines, Hotels, Gambling, Restaurants and Bars, Apparel Retailers, Publishing and Hotels. Technology added 2.24%; Health Care 2%; Telecommunications 1.91%; Consumer Goods 1.59%; Oil and Gas 1.41%; and lastly Utilities up 1.32%.
Market Strategies Economic Data
Feb Nonfarm Payrolls surged last month adding 236,000 new jobs. The threat of a sequester had little effect in retarding the advance of every private sector. The only group declining was Government Jobs: The Employment Rate fell 2 pts to 7.7% from 7.9% in January. The Fed policy has worked and is not likely to change until the Employment Rate falls to 6.5% or Inflation rises above 2.5%.
Market Strategies Technical Information
Support Levels S&P 500 15.28-15.36
Resistance S&P 500 15.68-15.77
Support Levels DOW 14.115-14.145
Resistance DOW 14.450-14.498
Support Levels QQQ 66.80-67.50
Resistance QQQ 69.29-70.70
Support Levels Nasdaq 30.70
Resistance Nasdaq 34.38
Market Strategies Cycles
None of the ETF’s we follow made double digit gains in February as they did in January.
Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX) was closest, gaining 9.1%. Much of IDX’s success can be traced to the fact that Indonesia has grown in excess of 6% in each of the last three years and is expected to continue to or exceed this pace for the next few years. Indonesia’s growth is attractive considering many developed market economies have been shrinking recently. iShares MSCI Philippines Investable (EPHE) is another emerging market story quite similar to Indonesia, often over-looked although. well above average growth (and expectations) has been silently luring savor investors to the Philippines.
March packs a rather busy docket. The end of the first quarter brings with it Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks according to ( The Hirsch Stock Trader’s Almanac ) have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after ( beginning the eighteenth ) is the exact opposite, DJIA down 16 of the last 25 years—and frequently down sharply for an average drop of 0.5%. Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007, 6.8% in 2009, and 3.1% in 2011 are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.
Normally a decent performing market month, post-election year payments to the Piper take a toll on March as average gains are trimmed significantly . In post-election years March ranks: 5th worst for DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000; NASDAQ is 4th worst and Russell 1000 is the best at 6th worst. In 10 post-election years since 1973, NASDAQ has advanced just four times, most recently in 2009 (+10.9%).
Saint Patrick’s Day is often a recurring bullish event. Gains the day ( this year Friday the 15th )before Saint Patrick’s Day have proved to be greater than the day itself ( Sunday the 17th ) and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s usually falls in Triple-Witching Week.
Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.22% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.11% the day after, but the day before averages a 0.24% advance. In 2013, Saint Patrick’s falls on Sunday which has only occurred eight times in the past 63 years. In these eight occurrences, the pattern of strength before and weakness after is even more pronounced as the Monday and Tuesday following were negative on average.
Good Friday and Easter have landed in the month 12 times in the last 63 years like they do this year. On the day before Good Friday S&P 500 has gains averaging 0.2% in the previous twelve March Easters. Because the holidays are near month-end, the two trading days after Easter have been weak.
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Rule 17 B Attestations:
*Princeton has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for I.R.. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate if money is needed for better opportunities. We now believe the three small penny stocks we represent for a total outlay of $ 9,725 is well worth the risk.
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.
CONTACT
Please Direct All Inquiries To:
Mike King
Princeton Research
3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121
Phone: (702) 650-3000
Fax: (702) 697-8944
Visit: www.princetonresearch.com
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