Where To Invest Now Market Investing Strategies Newsletter

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Where To Invest Now

May 9, 2016 – Sample Issue

 Where To Invest Now

Market Investing Strategies Newsletter

Where To Invest May 2016

Balanced Investing Strategies To

Make Money In Up Or Down Markets

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz

 

Where To Invest Now Market Investing Strategies Newsletter Covering:

 

Where to Invest May 2016

Best Stocks To Buy May 2016

Stock Market Investing Strategies

Stock Options Trade Alerts

Options Trading Strategies

How To Trade Options

 

Proven Profits Trading Success

Results From Our Recent Trade Alerts:

 

97% Profits on SJM May 125 Puts in 7 Days

27% Profits on QQQ May 109 Puts in 7 Days

365% Profits on SIG April 120 Puts in 10 Days

207% Profits on SIG April 120 Puts in 6 Days

53% Loss on MSFT May 52 Calls in 2 Days

70% Profits on GLD April 119 Calls in 1 Day

50% Loss on QQQ Puts in 5 Days

50% Loss on GLD Calls in 15 Days

207% Profits on SIG Puts in 6 Days

48% Profits on BA Calls in 2 Days

50% Loss on JPM Calls in 3 Days

70% Profits on GLD Calls in 1 Day

 

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Investing Strategies trade alerts

$10,000 Trading Portfolio
Charles Moskowitz Discussion

 

There are 4 positions:

 

Long 6 HL Sept Calls

Long 4 NEM May 33 Calls

Short  4 NEM May 34 Calls

Long 3 SIG May Puts

 

Funds in Use $ 1485

 

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN ??

 Week 18 was a small loss of $204 bringing YTD gains to $4371.  We did however add a couple of new positions and the funds in use number is now $1,485, consisting of positions in HL calls, NEM calls and the SIG puts.

 

The question of what the government numbers actually mean is brought into question this week.  As I’ve noted in this space before, you should never make your investment decisions based on government numbers that will be “adjusted” several times until they are final.  This primarily deals with the GDP numbers that as we all know are adjusted 3 or 4 times before the final, and sometimes (as in Q4) can actually go from positive to negative.  However, what I am zeroing in on today are the employment numbers and their corresponding counterpart the first time claims for unemployment benefits.  For the month of April the President and the Secretary of Labor pound the table with the 74th month in a row that we have created new jobs.  Are they kidding??  We did gain 160,000 new jobs.  However, if you deduct the 247,000 new claims for Unemployment benefits it’s not quite the rosy picture portrayed.  As noted last month, most of the jobs were of the minimum wage and Federal categories.  Add to this another new low in the labor participant rate to 62.8% and it just gets worse.

 

With tech sector margins shrinking and topline growth practically non-existent you can see why retail has also declined.

 

The old “buying the dips” strategy ceases to work when we are not in a strong bull market.  Oil price stability has helped but as I noted last week, strength and moves to the upside have their own dangers.

 

The fact is that the world is awash in money, and while we don’t wish to get in the way of the monetary policy the cracks are clearly starting to show.  The A.A.I.I. confidence numbers are heavily skewed to Neutral with half of those polled (60% over average) and bullish way down at 20%.  These neutrals can go either way on any news, good or bad, and I think will lead the way…

 

Due to the open positions and the tentative markets there will be no new trades tonight.

I am looking for trades like our purchase and covered write position in SUN to add some upside potential with limited risk…..CAM

Where To Invest market strategies

 

Market Strategies $10,000 Trading Account Trade Table

 

DATE TRADES PRICE COST PROCEEDS RESULTS
05/04 Sold 4 NEM 34 May Calls 0.78      312  312 Credit
05/03 Bought 4 NEM  May 33 Calls 1.83 732
05/03 Bought 6 HL September 3.50 Calls 0.85 510
05/02 Sold 4 FXE June 109 Puts ( 50% Loss Rule ) 0.49      196 204 Loss
04/28 Bought 3 SIG May 105 Puts 1.85 555
04/18 Bought 4 FXE June 109 Puts 1.00 400

 

3rd Week expiration when the month is listed without a date

 

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the

VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

 

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

Subscriber Members Only

TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

 

NOTE: In texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity:

 

The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. 1=January, 2=February

 

Trading is hypothetical. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for

SPY Jan 25th 147 Calls or Puts.

 Investing Trade Alerts

 

MARKET Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect.

Dow

17,740.63

-33.01

-0.19%

Nasdaq

4736.16

-39.20
-0.82%

S&P 500

2057.14

-8.16

-0.40%

Transportation

7738.96

-132.67

-1.69%

Russell 2000

1114.72

-16.13

-1.43%

Nasdaq100

4330.17

-11.13

-0.26%

Gold (spot)

1292.90

+3.70

+0.3%

  Silver

1752.7

-29.2

-1.6%

Crude

44.66

-1.26

-2.7%

Heating Oil

133.73

-4.87

-3.5%

Unleaded Gas

1.4962

-0.1082

-6.7%

Natural Gas

2.101

-0.077

-3.5%

VIX

14.72

-0.98

-6.2%

Put/Call Ratios

S&P 100

126/100’s

+16/100’s

Put/Call Ratios

CBOE Equity

68/100’s

Unch/100’s

 

Bonds

165-01 +1-23

2.62% -0.04%

10 Yr. Note

130-17 +15    1.78%-0.04%

 

Copper

215.40

-12.95

-5.7%

CRB Inflation

Index

179.91.

-4.70

-2.6%

Barron’s* Confidence

66.8

-1.1

S&P100

912.10

-2.92

-0.32%

5 Yr. Note

121-057 +085

1.23% -0.05%

 

Dollar

93.89

+0.81

+0.9%

DJ Utilities

659.29

+4.85

+0.74%

AAII

Confidence

Index

 

Long Term

Average

Bullish

22.3%

-5.1%

 

38.74%

Bearish

30.3%

+1.7%

 

30.30%

Neutral

47.4%

+3.4%

 

30.96%

M1 Money

Supply

+7.33%

Apr 25th

 

 

M2 Money

Supply

+6.95%

Apr 25th

 

 

* Component Change in the Confidence Index

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits
M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

 

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You Make The Trades
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NOTE: This is a Sample Issue Only!

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THE COMPLETE VIP MEMBERS ONLY MARKET STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER ISSUES

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Investing Strategies trade alerts

Market Strategies Technical Information

 

Support/Resistance Levels:                

 

SUPPORT                         RESISTANCE

 

S&P 500                         2035                                      2088

Dow                             17,610                                   18,070

QQQ                             104.10                                   108.90

Transports                      7745                                       8005

NASDAQ                        4600                                         48.60

 

 

$100,000 Trading Portfolio Stock Positions and Trades

                                                          

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.  

 

Stock

 

 

Purchase Price Purchase Date Stop/Loss   Price/Date Sold   Profit/

(Loss)

HL       1000   3.95       05/03
MOS     200 27.53       05/02
NVAX    500 5.38       04/18
SCO        20 109.88       04/12
EYES    500 5.04       04/04
SUN      300 29.50       02/23 Sold 3 32.50 Calls $ 900 credit
STNG   500 6.02       02/22
EYES  1000 6.49       12/28
LVLT    100 50.81       11/23
TWTR  200 28.51       10/28
MOS  100 43.55       08/14
NBGGY  600 1.40       02/17
BAC. Wts 5,000 lots 0.7411       12/26
BSBR  500

500

4.84

3.75

     12/18

 

SAN  600 8.40      12/16
AA  500 14.21      10/16
NBGGY 300  2.95      05/19
NBGGY 300 4.08 8/12
TEXQY* 200 6.56 7/11
REPR* 5000 0.22 10/22/12

 

SCO means Stop Close Only

 

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.

 

Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.


For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the  DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

 

 

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Account

There were two closed option positions:

FXE June 109 Puts were sold on the 50% Loss rule taking a hit for $ 408 on the 8 lots.

4 MOS May 6th 27.50 Puts made a profit of $188.

 

The total for the week was a negative $ 320.

 

There were no closed out stock positions.

 

For the entire year on closed out trades, our hypothetical profits decreased to $16,139.

 

The options expire on the third Friday of each Month unless otherwise posted.

 

The Stock table has the following 22 positions:

 

AA,  BAC.B.WS,  BSBR(2), EYES(2), HL, LVLT, MOS(2), NBGGY (3), NVAX,

REPR,  SAN, SCO, STNG, SUN, TEXQY, TWTR, short 3 SUN Calls

 

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless otherwise mentioned specifically.

 

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000,

using a total of $75,859 for the 21 open long stock positions plus a credit of $900 for the

SUN written Calls, which reduces the requirement to $ 74,959.

The Open Option Position requires $ 800.

This increases the margin requirement to $ 75,759,

leaving $ 24,241 in cash.

 

These figures are approximate and there might be errors.

 

We have not counted the dividends received from many previous trades such as Apple, Colgate Palmolive, JP Morgan, North American Tankers, STNG, Santander, which pays over 5%, their Brazil affiliate BSBR and Blue Capital Reinsurance which was sold for a profit and many others.

 

The trading is hypothetical and we do not count commission costs.

 

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

Where to Invest newsletter

Previous Week’s Recommendations and

Rules for the Market Strategies

$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account

 

  • All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless

otherwise stated

 

  • When the option has doubled sell half the position

 

  • Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade

 

  • The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask,

whichever is more realistic)

 

  • The options will be followed until closed out.

 

  • Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

 

Option Cost Date Sold Date Profit/

(Loss)

MOS May6th27.50

4 lots

Puts

0.45

05/03/16 0.92 05/04/2016 $ 188
SIG May 105

6 lots

Puts

1.85

04/28/16
FXE June 109

8 lots

Puts

1,00

04/18/16 0.49 05/02/2016 ( $ 408 )
SUN June 32.50

3 lots written

Calls

 

3.00 02/23/2016 $ 900 credit

Covered write

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members.

Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.

 

 

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Where to Invest options trading newsletter

 

This Weeks’ Economic Numbers

Earnings Releases and Media Data

 

Before the Open on top of the Row;

After the close below the Economics Information

 

MONDAY AES AES ( 0.21 vs 0.25 ) Global Partners GLP ( -0.19 vs 0.92 ) JD.com JD ( -0.14 vs -0.02 )

Murphy USA MUSA 0.48 vs 0.50  Teva Pharma TEVA ( 1.17 vs 1.36 ) Armstrong World Industries AWI ( 0.41 vs 0.37 ) Silver Wheaton SLW ( 0.12 vs 0.13 ) Tyson Foods TSN ( 0.96 vs 0.75 ) Travel Centers of America  TA ( -0.23 vs 0.41 ) Xcel  XEL ( 0.47 vs 0.46 )

China Reports on both Consumer and Producer prices for April.

Euro Zone Finance Ministers hold a special meeting on Greece.

Chicago Fed President Evans speaks at a London conference on economic

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari  speaks to the Economic Club of Minnesota.

Brookdale Senior Living BKD ( -0.10 vs -0.71 ) Convergys CVG ( 0.45 vs 0.47 ) Diplomat Pharmacy DPLO 0.18 vs 0.09 Dun and Bradstreet DNB ( 0.95 vs 1.33 ) Genesis Healthcare GEN 0.03 Hertz HTZ  ( 0.01 ) International Flavors IFF ( 1.40 vs 1.45 ) Liberty Global LBTYA

-0.01 vs -0.61 Stifel Financial SF ( 0.51 vs 0.65 ) Team Health Holdings TMH ( 0.58 vs 0.68 )

TUESDAY Credit Suisse CS -0.03 vs 0.79 Crocs CROX ( 0.06 vs -0.08 ) Dean Foods DF 0.38 vs 0.24

Hospitality Props HPT ( 0.92 vs 0.83 ) Nokia NOK ( 0.03 vs 0.05 ) Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH ( 0.37 vs 0.27 ) Transdigm Group TDG ( 2.61 vs 2.11 )   ZBRA  Tech1.22 v 1.39

The Small Business Optimism Index for April is reported

10:00 hrs JOLTS-Job Openings  March  ( NA vs 5.445mln )

10:00 hrs Wholesale Inventories March ( 0.2% vs -0.5% )

Albemarle ALB ( 0.86 vs 1.17 ) Babcock and Wilcox BW ( 0.21 ) Electronic Arts EA ( 0.42 vs 0.39 ) Fossil FOSL ( 0.16 vs 0.75 ) Kinross Gold KGC ( -0.01 vs +0.01 ) Planet Fitness PLNT( 0.13 ) Prospect Capital PSEC ( 0.26 vs 0.24 ) Walt Disney DIS ( 1.40 vs 1.23 )

WEDNESDAY Aramark Holdings ARMK ( 0.39 vs 0.37 ) Ameren AEE ( 0.37 vs 0.45 ) Canadian Solar CSIQ

0.18 vs 1.04 ) Kelly Services KELYA ( 0.28 vs 0.10 )Macy’s M ( 0.37 vs 0.56 ) Sumitomo Mitsui SMFG 117.58 Valeant Pharma VRX ( 1.37 vs 2..36 ) Wendy’s WEN ( 0.06 vs 0.06 )

SiteOne Landscape Supply is set to price 10 million shares at $ 21 each.

07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 05/07 ( NA vs -3.4% )

10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 05/07 ( NA vs +2.784 Mln Bbls )

14:00 hrs Treasury Budget April ( ( + $156.7Bln )

CA Tech CA ( 0.58 vs 0.56 ) China Lodging HTHT ( 0.20 vs 0.09 ) Ctrip CTRP ( -0.06 vs 0.04)Neenah Paper NP ( 1.08 vs 0.95 ) Netease.com NTES ( 2.46 vs 1.55 ) Jack In The  Box JACK ( 0.71 vs 0.69 )  Sun Life SLF ( 0.90 vs0.73 ) Weibo WB ( 0.04 vs 0.01 )

THURSDAY AerCap AER ( 1.50 vs 1.44 ) Airgas ARG ( 1.23 vs 1.15 ) Constellum CSTM ( 0.12 vs -0.02 )

Kohl’s KSS ( 0.38 vs 0.63 ) Perrigo PRGO ( 1.73 vs 1.85 ) Ralph Lauren RL ( 0.83 vs 1.41 )

Prestige Brands PBH ( 0.49 vs 0.47 ) Teck Res TCK ( -0.01 vs +0.11 ) VSTO ( 0.61 vs 0.47 )

08:30 hrs Initial Claims 05/07 ( 270K vs 274K )

08:30 hrs Continuing Claims 04/30 ( NA vs  2121K )

08:30 hrs Export Prices ex-agriculture April ( NA vs +0.3% )

08:30 hrs Import Prices ex-oil April ( NA vs -0.1% )

10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 05/07 ( NA vs +68 bcf )

Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the economy

The World Gold Council publishes a report on first-quarter gold demand

Dillard’s DDS ( 2.54 vs 2.66 ) Nordstrom JWN ( 0.46 vs 0.66 ) NVIDIA NVDA ( 0.40 vs 0.33 )

Vipshop VIPS ( 0.15 vs 0.13 ) VOXX Int’l VOXX ( 0.;03 vs -0.60 ) SHAK ( 0.05 vs 0.04 )

FRIDAY Brookfield Asset Mgmt BAM ( 0.43 vs 0.82 ) Honda HMC 61.43 vs 54.30 ) J.C. Penney

JCP ( -0.36 vs -0.55 ) Manchester United MANU ( 0.05 vs -0.04 )

08:30 hrs PPI  April ( +0.3% vs -0.1% )

CORE PPI April ( +0.1% vs -0.1% )

08:30 hrs Retail Sales April ( +0.8% vs -0.3% )

Retail Sales ex-auto ( +0.2% vs -0.1% )

10:00 hrs Business Inventories March   ( $18.0B vs $ 17.3B )

10:00 hrs Michigan Sentiment May ( 90 vs 89.7 )

San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the Sacramento Economic Forum

U.S. Oil Rig Count fell for the seventh straight week -4 to 328, Nat Gas rig count remained unchanged at 87.

Railroad carload traffic declined in April 16.1% from 2015 to 944,339

 

 

Balanced Investing Strategies

Market Strategies Fundamentals

 

Since hitting a multi-month high on April 20, DJIA and S&P 500 have been steadily trending lower and May performance continues to be poor living up to its seasonal sub-par performance. Markets hate uncertainty and this election year has even more than the usual election year uncertainty. First trading-day in May strength quickly faded with the market giving back that day’s gains and more on the second trading day.  After two weeks of weakness DJIA and S&P 500 are now approaching key support levels.

 

Market weakness was all about disappointing domestic data and slowing global growth. Cyclical stocks, which had led the rebound since the Feb 11th low such as mining, industrials and energy, were all substantially lower. The Metals and Mining ETF ( XME: $ 22.76 ) -1.86 or -7.6% fell sharply, breaking below its 13-day moving average, following new highs for the year.

 

The Transportation index was the worst performing index down 132.67 points or 1.69% and falling below its 200 day moving average. Airline stocks in particular were hard hit over the past month falling sharply over the past three weeks. The ETF ( JETS: $ 23.06 ) – 3.08 or -11.8% from the highs reached April 19th. United Airlines fell the most ( UAL: $ 45.70 ) – $ 12.35 or -21.3%. American Airlines ( AAL: $ 33.03 ) – $ 8.73 or-20.9% was second worst. Alaska,  ( ALK: $ 68.51 ) – $ 13.61 or -16.6%; Southwest Air ( LUV: $ 41.73 ) -$ 5.77 or -12.1%; rounding out the fab five, Delta ( DAL: $ 42.04 ) -$ 5.38 -11.4% fell the least. After benefitting from low fuel costs they all fell victim to pricing and capacity woes.

 

The Russell 2000 was second worst index falling 16 points or 1.43%. The Nasdaq recovered sharply late Friday to reduce its loss to just 39 points or 0.82%. It had been down 91 points for the week reaching a new low for the move at 4,684.28. The Dow at 17,741 was off 33 points for the week having recovered 161 points from its low Friday at 17,580. The S&P 500 also staged a smart recovery having tacked on 18 points from the low of 2039.42. For the week it fell just 8 points to 2057.

 

At the lows, Thursday, S&P 500 was a mere three points above its quickly ascending 50-day moving average. DJIA has a slightly better cushion of around 100 points. NASDAQ is in no-man’s land trading well below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Two weeks of weakness has Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators stretched toward oversold.

 

An oversold bounce is not out of the question however, NASDAQ’s lagging performance is likely to limit the magnitude and duration of a bounce, further reducing the already slim odds of new all-time highs.

 

Nasdaq is by far the worst of the three top indexes and will be an obstacle throughout the summer for stocks to regain their mojo.

 

Facebook ( FB: $ 119.49 ) up 1.6% for the week made a new record close and has been the exception. Facebook spiked in the previous week after reporting a 3rd consecutive quarter of accelerated earnings and revenue growth, defying gloomy reports of flagging user engagement. Quality stocks such as Church and Dwight  ( CHD: $ 96.84 ) + $ 4.14 or + 4.4% had a great jump surging in a difficult week.

 

The deterioration in first quarter earnings was expected and widespread with 87% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. The decline in earnings is about 7% somewhat less than expectations of nearly 10%. About 53% of companies beat estimates, which in itself is below the five-year quarterly average. However, top line results were much lower across the board.

 

The Dow performed much better than the other indexes holding well above its 50 day moving average even at its low last Friday. It is also more than 600 points above its 200-day moving average.

Only 2 Industrial groups out of the 10 were down more than 2%: Oil and Gas fell 3.45% and Basic Materials were off 2.35%. In other categories, Health Care was down 1.06%. Industrials were down 0.64%; Financials off 0.40%; Technology was down 0.33% and Telecommunications a minus 0.08%. Three groups ended the week positive: Utilities were up 0.83%; Consumer Goods gained 0.71% and Consumer services added 0.27%. Consumers have money and should spend more throughout the summer and going into the election. This should bolster Dow stocks in comparison to the other indexes.

 

 

Company Price Change % Change Volume YTD
change
MMM 3M 168.89 +1.12 +0.67% 1,630,184 +12.11%
AXP American Express 64.51 +0.59 +0.92% 3,667,658 -7.25%
AAPL Apple 92.72 -0.52 -0.56% 43,699,886 -11.91%
BA Boeing 133.26 +1.18 +0.89% 2,466,030 -7.84%
CAT Caterpillar 73.36 +0.57 +0.78% 6,942,753 +7.95%
CVX Chevron 101.86 +0.44 +0.43% 5,966,814 +13.23%
CSCO Cisco 26.53 +0.32 +1.22% 25,625,273 -2.30%
KO Coca-Cola 45.32 +0.26 +0.58% 8,564,035 +5.49%
DIS Disney 105.54 +0.61 +0.58% 7,407,498 +0.44%
DD E I du Pont de Nemours and Co 64.26 +0.59 +0.93% 1,830,969 -3.51%
XOM Exxon Mobil 88.51 +0.47 +0.53% 7,968,354 +13.55%
GE General Electric 30.12 +0.23 +0.77% 28,301,406 -3.31%
GS Goldman Sachs 158.85 -0.68 -0.43% 2,306,976 -11.86%
HD Home Depot 135.70 +1.03 +0.76% 3,356,848 +2.61%
IBM IBM 147.29 +0.82 +0.56% 4,895,811 +7.03%
INTC Intel 30.04 +0.14 +0.47% 19,632,199 -12.80%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 112.74 -0.14 -0.12% 6,099,860 +9.75%
JPM JPMorgan Chase 61.60 +0.36 +0.59% 11,057,877 -6.71%
MCD McDonald’s 130.58 +1.30 +1.01% 4,418,401 +10.53%
MRK Merck 53.60 -0.49 -0.91% 10,526,340 +1.48%
MSFT Microsoft 50.39 +0.45 +0.90% 24,787,301 -9.17%
NKE Nike 58.43 +0.24 +0.41% 7,307,963 -6.51%
PFE Pfizer 33.58 +0.01 +0.03% 23,170,974 +4.03%
PG Procter & Gamble 82.13 +0.83 +1.02% 6,297,747 +3.43%
TRV Travelers Companies Inc 110.45 -0.30 -0.27% 1,273,076 -2.14%
UTX United Technologies 101.12 +0.83 +0.83% 3,745,483 +5.26%
UNH UnitedHealth 132.04 -0.27 -0.20% 2,618,614 +12.24%
VZ Verizon 51.12 +0.28 +0.55% 9,782,309 +10.60%
V Visa 77.72 +0.36 +0.47% 6,172,569 +0.22%
WMT Wal-Mart 68.25 +1.04 +1.55% 9,825,385 +11.34%

 

Market Strategies Economic Data

 

Payroll Numbers Decline while Aggregate Earnings Rise an impressive 0.8%. The Unemployment  Rate remained unchanged at 5%.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 160,000 (Briefing.com consensus 207,000) versus the prior 12-month average of 232,000 and the prior 3-month average of 200,000.  March nonfarm payrolls were revised to 208,000 from 215,000 while February nonfarm payrolls were revised to 233,000 from 245,000. February average hourly earnings were up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) after being up 0.2% in March.  Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5% versus 2.3% in March.  Aggregate earnings were up a robust 0.8%.

 

Private sector payrolls increased by 171,000 (Briefing.com consensus 191,000). March private sector payrolls were revised to 184,000 from 195,000 while February private sector payrolls were revised to 222,000 from 236,000.

 

Category APR MAR FEB JAN DEC
Establishment Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls 160K 208K 233K 168K 271K
  Goods-Producing -3K 0K -20K 24K 44K
    Construction 1K 41K 13K 18K 48K
    Manufacturing 4K -29K -16K 18K 6K
  Service-Providing 174K 184K 242K 131K 215K
    Retail Trade -3K 39K 52K 67K 7K
    Financial 20K 14K 8K 17K 8K
    Business 65K 37K 35K -2K 60K
       Temporary help 9K 9K -2K -44K 25K
    Education/Health 54K 43K 77K 26K 63K
    Leisure/Hospitality 22K 24K 37K 34K 35K
    Government -11K 24K 11K 13K 12K
Average Workweek 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.6 34.5
 Production Workweek 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.8
Factory Overtime 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2
Aggregate Hours Index 0.4% 0.2% -0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Avg Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Household Survey
Household Survey
Civilian Unemp. Rate 5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0%
Civilian Labor Force -362K 396K 555K 502K 466K
Civilian Employed -316K 246K 530K 615K 485K
Civilian Unemployed -46K 151K 24K -113K -20K

The average workweek was 34.5 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5) versus 34.4 hours in March.  The March manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours.

The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 9.7% versus 9.8% in March.

 

The 0.8% increase in aggregate earnings should boost the economy as more money on the table helps consumer spending. However, consumers have been demonstrating a striking propensity of late to save more than they spend. That has contributed to weaker GDP growth overall, so we’ll have to wait on future data to see if that propensity to save has changed. If, and when, it does, it will be a booster to GDP numbers and the U.S. economy.

 

 

 

Productivity decreased at a 1.0% annual rate in the first quarter. That was better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which called for a 1.4% decline, yet it followed on the heels of an upwardly revised — but still weak — 1.7% decline (from -2.2%) in productivity in the fourth quarter.

   

 

Unit labor costs jumped 4.1% in the first quarter (Briefing.com consensus +2.6%), reflecting a 3.0% increase in hourly compensation and a 1.0% decrease in productivity. Productivity has increased at an annual rate of less than 1.0% in each of the last five years, which helps explain the stagnant growth of the U.S. economy. On a year-over-year basis, productivity is up just 0.6% while unit labor costs are up 2.3%. That’s a relationship with stagflation written on it.

Productivity gains help keep cost-push inflation pressures from rising wages in check, and over the long term, it is productivity gains that provide the increase in output that has led to consistent gains in living standards in free market economies

 

Category Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Nonfarm Business Sector
Productivity Q/Q -1.0% -1.7% 2.0% 3.1% -0.8%
Unit Labor Costs Q/Q 4.1% 2.7% 0.4% 2.0% 2.6%
Productivity Y/Y 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7%
Unit Labor Costs Y/Y 2.3% 1.9% 2.7% 2.6% 1.2%

 

 

Market Strategies Cycles

 

Each and every year, as the “Worst Six Months” May through October for DJIA and S&P 500 near, the “Sell in May” debate begins. Since we already know that the market tends to post the majority of its gains from November through April and does very little from May to October, we are not going to bother debating whether one should actually sell in May or not. Instead, let’s focus on what tactical changes can be made in portfolios to take advantage of what actually does work during the “Worst Six Months” while either shorting or outright avoiding the worst of the worst.

 

In the following table, the performance of the S&P 500 during the “Worst Six Months” May to October is compared to fourteen select sector indices or sub-indices, gold and the 30-year Treasury bond. Nine of the fourteen indices chosen were S&P Sector indices. Gold and 30-year bond are continuously-linked, non-adjusted front-month futures contracts. With the exception of two indices, 1990-2015, a full 26 years of data was selected. This selection represents a reasonably balanced number of bull and bear years for each and a long enough time frame to be statistically significant while representing current trends. Dividends are not considered.

 

 

AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear (HDGE) is a  position added that should be considered if and when supported by higher volatility. The HDGE traded as low as $10.03 in April, but has since rebounded.  Purchases could be considered accordingly.

 

Facebook (FB: NASDAQ) – Has spent the last 7 trading days consolidating after its earnings report after

the close on 4/27.  On a fundamental basis it is the clear winner in the advertising arena.  The numbers

show that it is the only other social media company other than GOOG that has figured out how to monetize

its membership across all platforms for advertisers.

 

On a technical basis it has held the gains from the gap up from $109 to $117.  I’m waiting to get some direction from the futures tonight in order to issue a price and option selection to participate in what I feel will be a further move up to the mid $120s. Right now I’m leaning towards buying the 5/121 calls @ $1.40 or so, but I will use the texting service once I see how the markets open in the morning…CAM            

The stopping point for this trade would be a break below the low of this consolidation @ $115.84

Where To Invest Now 2016

Undervalued Small Cap Stocks

 

Lower Priced stocks that look to be a buy:

 

Repro-Med Systems, Inc ( OTCQX:  REPR 0.36 )*   

small cap medical products stock

Fourth quarter preliminary net revenues will exceed $3.2 million, representing a slight increase over the $3.1 million of the previous quarter.   Sales are led by the Company’s proprietary infusion products.  The Company’s fiscal year ended February 29, 2016.

 

This month the Company participated in the 25th Annual National Home Infusion Association (NHIA) Conference and Expo in New Orleans, LA and used the occasion to introduce its new “On-Line Calculator”, a tool to help determine which of the Company’s Precision Flow Rate Tubing™ and RMS HIgH-Flo Subcutaneous Needle Sets™ to use based on the medication being administered and desired time of infusion.

 

RMS Medical Products was one of 110 exhibitors in attendance at NHIA.   Customers responded well to the new calculator and expressed that the new format of the “On-Line Calculator”, which can be used on any computer, tablet, or mobile device, was easy to use and very helpful.  The marketing and sales teams continue to build new relationships and expand the Company’s customer base as evidenced by continued strong sales.

 

Andy Sealfon, Company President and CEO commented, “The military has expressed interest in our products for utilization in emergency applications as well as use in VA hospitals.  We believe that because of our performance standards and the reliability of our products, we will provide them with great value and benefits.”

 

The Company manufactures medical products used for infusions and suctioning. The Infusion product portfolio currently includes the FREEDOM60(R) and the newer FreedomEdge™ Syringe Infusion Pumps, RMS Precision Flow Rate Tubing(TM) and RMS HIgH-Flo(TM) Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets. These devices are used for infusions administered in professional healthcare settings as well as at home. The Company’s RES-Q-VAC line of medical suctioning products is used by emergency medical service providers in addition to a variety of other healthcare providers.

 

NHIA is a trade association representing the interests of entities providing infusion and specialty pharmacy products and services to home-based infusion patients.

 

The Company’s website is RMSMedicalProducts.com

 

Repro-Med Systems, Inc has had an increase in sales each of the last four years. They finished the year of 2014 with $ 11.2 million in sales reflecting top line growth of  29% from 2013.In each of the previous two years they had a 12% increase in sales. The company has had at least $ 700 thousand of net income in each of the past four years and has no debt. The patented needle sets alone can give the company a huge growth potential. In my opinion, with new products coming on stream, the stock should trade between $ 3 and $ 8 in the next two years.

 

 

Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, Inc. (OTCQB:OGES  0.62) *

world energy solutions

Oakridge global energy is a developer, designer and manufacturer of proprietary energy storage solutions. The Company is based out of Florida’s “space coast” near Kennedy Space Center. They make premium quality, proprietary batteries, battery systems and lithium ion cells that are built for maximum performance over the traditional lead/acid batteries. OGES, proudly manufacturing in America since 1986, produces batteries for military, consumer, government, and industrial applications. Target market priorities include golf cars and other recreational vehicles, electronics, and devices requiring rechargeable batteries.

 

Oakridge Energy produces highly reliable, sustainable and dependable batteries for mobile power sources. Based on size and weight, OGES products deliver a higher capacity than comparable competitor batteries.  OGES batteries are higher in quality, longer lasting and safer to use. These batteries have undergone and passed rigorous military testing in underwater and aerial vehicles proving to be high/low pressure tolerant. Most significant, OGES batteries are superior performing yet competitive in the market.

 

Martac Maritime Tactical Systems, Inc.: MARTAC recently conducted very successful field trials on the Inter-coastal waterway in Palm Bay, Florida. MARTAC is a Melbourne, Florida based company that designs and produces the Man-Portable Tactical Autonomous Systems (MANTAS) that can reach extreme high speeds and operate anywhere in the world.  These vehicles are designed to be used in numerous applications including naval fleet protection, mine warfare, port and harbor security patrol, antipiracy, search and rescue, and many others. shows our high quality and high performance gets us into the military space at a time when made in USA is of critical strategic importance.

 

Freedom Trucks shows that Oakridge can outperform Tesla and the “Tesla of trucks” – trucks are much more difficult and laborious to power than cars – because of the Oakridge high power high energy dense batteries, we need only 180 OGES batteries to power the interstate truck that pulls an

80,000 lb trailer, whereas it would take 208,000 Tesla/Panasonic batteries, which is simply not feasible.

 

Lithium ion batteries, deliver twice the energy of nickel cadmium batteries and are the fastest growing battery segment. Their growth and demand dynamically forward trending. They are lightweight and easy to maintain. They deliver superior electro-chemical output and provide highest energy density for weight, non-metallic and are rechargeable. In 2015, the OGES ProSeries golf car was launched at the annual PGA show, the largest golf show in the world. OGES plans to have a new factory producing its patented thin film solid state lithium ion batteries by 2017. OGES is commencing delivery of small format prismatics to help several smart card customers reach the next generation.  Their growth will be serviced by the new factory. These batteries are also in a rapidly growing demand for a variety of applications.

 

Oakridge has recently continued expansion of its ISO certified manufacturing facility and warehouse in Palm Bay, with the support of Florida Governor Rick Scott. The new facility represents a $270 million investment, increasing the size of the manufacturing plant to 70,000 sq-ft to accommodate the growing demand for OGES batteries. Production is expected to increase from 250,000 to 25 million cells per year by 2018. The company’s growth will provide 1000 Americans with new jobs; this is part of the company’s commitment to support domestic employment.

 

Overseas, Oakridge Global Energy Solutions Limited (Hong Kong) is a subsidiary company that operates for sales and service in Asia.

 

 

Pluristem Therapeutics ( Nasdaq : PSTI: $ 1.62 )

A leading developer of patented placenta-based cell therapy products through its ( Placental expanded ) platform. In 2016 PLX cells will enter pivotal trials aimed at marketing approval in two indications serving multi-billion dollar markets. Positive clinical trial data for the cells have been reported in multiple indications. PLC cells release a cocktail of therapeutic proteins in response to inflammation, ischemia, hematological disorders and radiation damage. The Company’s proprietary, three – dimensional expansion technology is used to grow the cells in mass quantities with batch-to-batch consistency at Pluristem’s FDA and EMA approved state-of-the-art manufacturing facility. The cells do not require tissue matching prior to administration, making the treatment cost effective and readily available in virtually any medical setting. Pluristem has a strong intellectual property position, GMP-certified manufacturing facilities, strong balance sheet and strategic relationships with major research institutions.

 

Japan’s Patent Office just granted Pluristem two key patents, which cover: 1) Pluristem’s core technology of three-dimensional expansion methods for producing therapeutic cell products derived from placental or fat cells; 2) the use of placenta-derived cell products grown with this 3D technology to treat disorders of the hematopoietic system* (see below for a bit of detail), such as disorders caused by exposure to radiation or chemotherapy, and failed engraftment of hematopoietic stem cell transplants. Pluristem continues to strengthen its IP position in order to support the current negotiations with pharmaceutical companies in Japan regarding potential partnerships for the development and commercialization of its Placental expanded (PLX) cells.

 

Key to their activities in Japan, and as is descried on the fact sheet, is that Pluristem received clearance for the protocol for a Phase 2 trial in critical limb ischemia targeting marketing approval in Japan, via Japan’s accelerated regulatory pathway for regenerative medicines. Having been accepted into that pathway,

 

Pluristem is able to apply for conditional marketing approval after a single successful phase 2 study. If the Phase 2 results are positive and PLX-R18 gets approved on the basis of those data, they will not need to spend the years and millions of dollars on Phase 3 trials, but will have to collect “real world” data on patients who have been prescribed the drug to treat critical limb ischemia, once it hits the market. In any case, acquiring IP for all placenta-derived cell therapies is crucial to activities there, as is protection of Pluristem’s 3D manufacturing methods.

 

 

Gold Mining USA  OTC: GMUI ( 0.01 )

 

Has both mining activities in Australia and the U.S. Gold Mining USA Inc is an emerging natural resources company focused on developing metallurgical and mining projects. The Company’s business model is to acquire projects with the potential to provide significant resources through exploratory drilling and generate value through their development, joint venture or divestment. GMUI has a team of experts who will manage all mining operations available on their website. In addition GMUI has an Offtake Agreement with a prestigious Swiss-based Gold buyer and Refiner to purchase its gold production at the spot price at the London Bullion Market ( LBMA ) on the day gold is collected.

 

GMUI Strategy: The company uses strict investment criteria for project acquisitions and focuses on available tenements in proximity to operating mines, or in areas with proven or potential in-ground resources in regions suitable for short-term development. Projects are selected based upon historical drilling or sampling results combined with robust geological mining concepts and financial models. The projects are explored, analyzed and where required, brought into compliance to JORC/NI 43-101.

 

Australia and Nevada provide the opportunities to exploit smaller, undeveloped or previously mined gold resources that are of no interest to the large mining companies. In addition, there are numerous small hard rock and alluvial gold mines which have viable gold resources but are unable to raise the funds to start up or continue operations.

 

An initial target acquisition, Mt Tymn, provides an opportunity to enter the gold mining arena in Australia on a small scale with the confidence of total outlay recovery and good profits, sufficient to expand operations by acquisition of similar nearby deposits to continue positive cash flow mining and commence an exploration program capable of even greater rewards.

 

Mt Tymn is located approximately 125kms southwest of Darwin, 1km east of the Stuart Highway and 18kms south of the Adelaide River. As part of this acquisition, GMUI will also own the MLs relating to Ringwood which is situated approximately 120 kms southeast of Darwin, in the Pine Creek area. The minimum gold resource at Mt Tymn is conservatively estimated at 227,000 ounces with large potential for further drilling and assessment. Gross revenue is estimated to be in excess of $ 300 million with a gross profit expected to exceed 45%.

 

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Fundamental Analysis Stocks To Buy with Stops

Using fundamentals the following are stocks to buy and they have done well. Now it is your decision whether to take profits in these uncertain times.

 

Value oriented stocks were mixed last week.

 

Church and Dwight ( CHD )made a new all-time high at $ 96.84.

Harley Davidson ( HOG ) was repulsed at its 200 day price moving average around $ 49 and since has retreated below its 50 day m.a. and is in consolidation. HOG could be $ 60 in November, but we don’t have an entry just yet.

 

We bought Microsoft at its 200 day m.a. about 50.77 and were stopped out  at $ 49.87.

 

Enzo Biochem ( ENZ ) has come to life and appears ready to accelerate after achieving  the $ 5 level.

 

The HDGE is a buy for hedging against long positions. It has been a major success for those who believe in hedging.  The losses were very small on the HDGE considering huge gains on long positions.

 

We don’t currently have a position as volatility ( UVXY ) remains too low to get excited about being short stocks. That could change anytime.

 

Symbol Name Business Description PE P/S MV mln Price Buy Limit Stop Loss

Or sold

FFIC Flushing Financial Bank Holding company Savings and loans 13 3,5 592Mln 19.62 19.10 Buy on a dip
SUN Sunoco Oil and Gas Refining and marketing 10 0.2 2.1B 33.05 29.50 Short Calls against position
AA Alcoa Aluminum Processing and Technology N/A 0.4 9.5B 10.04 7.05 8.97X

 

SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Specialty Retailer and distributor beauty supplies 16 1 4B 30.10 27.30 30x stopped out at 30
HOG Harley Davidson Motorcycles and related products 11 1.32 8B 45.99  39.84 Sold at 51.66  on 4/4
CHD Church & Dwight Consumer Products Sodium bicarbonate Arm and Hammer 25 3 10.6B 96.84 79.80

01/26/16

Sold at 94.20
T AT&T Communications 36 1.54 211.7B 38.99 34.10 37.78x
VA Virgin Air Regional Airlines 7.2 0.9 1.5B 55.69 30.30

Bought

Merging with Alaska
ENZ Enzo Biochem Life Sciences NA 1.35 134M  5.22 4.15

Suggested buy

4.68x
BAC Bank of America Commercial Bank 10 2.02 165.3B 14.11 11.86 13.80x
HDGE Advisor Shares Ranger Bear ETF 10.71  Buy on a decline to the 10.54 level  . 10.35x

 

 

Rule 17B Attestations and Disclaimers

 

Princeton Research, Inc. has approximately 2,581,578 shares of AIVN both free and restricted and represents them for Investor relations. Princeton also has about 40,000 shares of TXGE. Princeton is paid $ 1,500 per month from RMS Medical Products. Princeton has bought 81,100 shares of RMS Medical Products. Princeton was paid $ 2,500 to write a report on Xinergy. Princeton has signed a contract with CBLI to be paid $ 2500 for July and August for investor relations. Princeton has been engaged by Target Energy. No contract is currently in place. Princeton was paid about 500,000 restricted shares of Leo Motors.

 

When there is no movement in penny stocks, even though there is none or very small losses, we will liquidate ( sold AIVN on stop ) even though we like the company, if money is needed for better opportunities.

 

We now believe REPR represents upside opportunity. The Target ADR trades at about $ 4.50 in U.S. vs 0.05 in Australia. Princeton owns 400,000 Australia shares and about 900 U.S. ADR’s.

 

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this e-mail issue. Princeton may buy or sell its free-trading shares in companies it represents at any time.

 

CONTACT

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

 

Mike King

(702) 650-3000

mike@princetonresearch.com

 

Charles Moskowitz

 (781) 826-8882

CAM@MoneyInfo-LLC.com

 

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street,

Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

 

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