Investing Strategies Newsletter – December 5, 2011


Market Strategies

 
Market strategies investing

Covering High Return Balanced Investing Success Strategies For

Stocks ■ Bonds ■ Interest Rates ■ Natural Resources ■ Currencies ■ Venture Capital ■ Gold

 

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Contributing Staff: Michael King, Bill Chippas, Charles Moskowitz

 


December 5, 2011

Market Strategies

Guide to Successful Trading


Read PDF Market Investing Strategies Newsletter PDF Version – CLICK HERE

 

Special Note:  Charles Moskowitz appeared for an interview at StockLegends.com. http://www.stocklegends.com , we urge everyone to listen to the interview now available on our website at:

 

http://www.princetonresearch.com/princeton-research-featured-on-investment-news-show/

 

We have been asked to help those who do not wish to make a $100,000 commitment to an account to scale back the initial investment to a $10,000 account. 

We are answering this request with an account that will only trade options.  However, in order to take full advantage to this new account, you really need to also subscribe to our Texting service.  There is no cost involved, but in order to receive all of the trading suggestions, in a high volatility environment, we need to communicate more often than weekly.

 

To subscribe, simply TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302

and you will automatically be included.

 

$10,000 OPTIONS ONLY ACCT:

New Trades for this week:
BUY 5 INTC Jan 22.50 CALLS @ $2.25
BUY 10 CONN  January 12.50 CALLS @ $ .80

BUY  4 QCOR January 44 CALLS @ $3.00
BUY 2 WYNN January 115 PUTS @ $6.00

The $10,000 Options Only account lost $710 last week, its twenty seventh week of trading.

We came into the week with a balance of $9,099.00  and with the loss last week reduced the gains to $8,389.00

Two positions remain: the BAC Dec 6 Calls and RIMM Jan 17.5 Calls. The Open positions are highlighted in the options table below.  Approximately $ 1600 funds are in use. 

This was a VERY strong week, following the worst Thanksgiving week in almost 80 years….right up until the selloff on Friday.  The closes at or near the lows of the day is a little unsettling.  We could still be of the mindset that no one really wants to go home “exposed” over the weekend. We will have to wait until Monday to see if the selloff carries over…If we hold last weeks range (SP-500:1200-1210) I think we will be in a position to test the highs of October (1290) and possibly July (1340).  The seasonal tax selling can still push the losers lower….CAM

 

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the

TEXT MESSAGE TRADE ALERTS SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES.

TEXT the word UPDATES to 69302 To Get In Now

Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in the November 28, November 21, November 14, November 7, October 31, October 24, October 17, and October 10 issues.

DATE

TRADE

PRICE

COST

PROCEEDS

RESULTS

12/2

Bought 5 RIMM January 17.5 Calls

1.80

900

 

 

12/1

Bought 50  BAC December 6 Calls

.14

700

 

 

11/29

Sold 5 TZA December 37 Calls  (50 % rule)

1.05

 

525

(710)

11/29

Bought  5 TZA December 37 Calls

2.47

1235

 

 

11/25

Sold 3 TNA December 41 Calls  (50% Rule)

1.60

 

480

(480)

11/23

Sold  5 VMW December 100 Calls (50% Rule)

.95

 

475

(455)

11/23

Sold 6 SPY December 124 Calls (50% Rule)

.90

 

540

(540)

11/22

Bought 3 TNA December 41 Calls

3.20

960

 

 

11/22

Bought 5 VMW December 100 Calls

1.86

930

 

 

11/21

Bought 6 SPY December 124 Calls

1.80

1080

 

 

11/21

Sold 2 AAPL December 400 Calls (50% Rule)

3.10

 

620

(620)

New trades $ 10,000 account…In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: OPTIONS ONLY: 12 December; 1 January; 2 February
The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. For any questions please call 702 650 3000

Market Laboratory – Weekly Changes

Prices are copied from Barron’s Weekly and  Yahoo Finance and may be incorrect

 

Dow

12,019.42

+787.64

+7.01%

Nasdaq

2626.93

+185.42

+7.59%

S&P 500

1244.28

+85.61

+7.39%

Transportation

4946.67

+413.23

+9.12%

Russell 2000

735.02

+68.86

+10.34%

Nasdaq 100

2302.04

+151.16

+7.03%

Gold

1751.30

+62.80

+3.73%

Silver

3268.6

+159.4

   +5.14%

Crude

100.96

+4.19

+4.33%

Heating Oil

299.00

+4.95

+1.68%

Unleaded Gas

2.4542

+0.1620

+6.60%

Natural Gas

3.542
-0.081              -2.29%

VIX

27.52

-6.95

-20.16%

Put/Call Ratios

S&P 100

134/100’s

+25/100’s

   Put/Call Ratios    CBOE Equity      61/100     -8/100’s

 

Bonds

141-26 -1-27

3.04% +0.12%

10 Yr Note

129-214 -0-106                                                   1.97% +0.07%

Copper

358.45

+30.05

+9.18%

CRB Inflation

Index

313.55

+8.10

+2.65%

Barron’s Confidence

70.6.%

+2.2%

S&P100

561.85

+39.58

+7.58%

5 Yr Note

122-252 +0-18

.92% -0.02%

 

Dollar

78.73

        -1.10

-1.38%

DJ Utilities

443.63

+17.62

+4.14%

AAII

Confidence

Index

Bullish

33.0

+0.3%

Bearish

39.4

+1.1%

Neutral

27.5%

-1.5 %

 

M1 Money Supply

+17.6%Nov 21st

 

M-2 Money.

Supply

+9.2%Nov 21st

 

 

M1…all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler’s Checks, Demand Deposits

M2 adds Savings and Money market Accounts both compared with the previous year.

 

 

New Stock Recommendations

Last Week we bought HWD, CBOE, SUSS and CSII.
We were stopped out on SUSS & sold CSII and BBVA with text alerts.

 (A full position is $5,000)

 

 Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Stock

Purchase Price

Purchase Date

Stop/Loss

 

Price/Date Sold

 

Profit/(Loss)

HWD 500

10.33

11/28/11

9.49sco

 

 

CBOE 100

26.37

11/28/11

24.98sco

 

 

SUSS 200

24.10

11/28/11

21.97x

21.97 12/1 stopped

($426)

CSII 600

10.33

11/28/11

8.99sco

9.94 12/1

218

USPR *
20,000

.13
half pos.

11/09/11

 

 

 

CONN 500

8.50

10/25/11

7.49X

 

 

BBVA 600

8.79

10/25/11

5.50X

8.32    12/1

($282)

SDS 100

25.55

10/5/11

 

 

 

XBOR*

1.40

8/12/11

0.70sco

 

 

LEI*

2.06

8/10/11

1.03x

 

 

KAJMY

30.45

3/21/11

29.60 sco

 

 

LEOM*

0.30

12/17/10

0.03 sco

 

 

 

 

 

Previous closed out positions can be found in the November 28, November 21, November 7, October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6th, August 15th, August 8th, August 1st and July 18th letters.

Model Portfolio Comments/Changes:

 

                                  INDEX OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS
For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF’s that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG and SDS, whichgo up when the DOW and S&P 500 go down and down when they go up.

 

New Stock Option Recommendations

 

BUY 10 INTC Jan 22.50 CALLS @ $2.25

BUY 25 CONN  January 12.50 CALLS @ $ .80

BUY  10 QCOR January 44 CALLS @ $3.00

BUY 4 WYNN January 115 PUTS @ $6.00

Option and overall Comments

 

We had a loss last week of $2715 in a strong up week.  Our gains for the year were $ 62,016 and with last week’s losses are reduced to $59,301.  We have four long options positions remaining, the RIMM Calls, BAC Calls, SDS Calls and UUP Calls (a US Dollar ETF). The stock table includes nine long stock positions:  HWD, CBOE, USPR, CONN, LEI, KAJMY, LEOM, SDS and XBOR. The SDS is a double inverse SP500 ETF.

 

The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise started, while each stock position requires $ 5,000 unless specifically stated.

 

 

We are basing money management on an hypothetical $ 100,000.00 and are using $8,000 in the options positions and $ 51,000 in the nine long stock positions for a total of $ 59,000 with

$41,000 in cash. This is our 45th letter for 2011. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors. If the suggested stocks and options are executed another $ 9,650 would be in use.

 

Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers.  For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower.  This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number…

 

Previous Week’s Recommendations and Rules for the $ 100,000 account Text UPDATES to 69302.

  •  
  • All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated.
  • When the option has doubled sell half the position.
  • Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade.
  • The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

at the close the previous Friday or at the open on Monday.

  • The options will be followed until closed out.
  • Option Symbols have changed. We will now use a new terminology. ( stock symbol with expiration month and strike price )
  • Subscribers can follow us on Twitter or call  702 650 3000 for up to date information.

 

Option

          COST

Date

Sold

 

Date

Profit/(Loss)

RIMM JAN 17.5,  15 LOTS Calls             1.80

12/2/11

 

 

 

 

BAC DEC 6
100 Lots
Calls               .14

12/1/11

 

 

 

 

LULU DEC 50
10 Lots
Calls             2.50

11/30/11

.45 (50% rule  trade thru)

 

12/1/11

( $ 2050 )

SDS  JAN 20
15 Lots
Calls             1.71

11/30/11

 

 

 

 

TZA DEC 37
10 Lots
Calls             2.47

11/29/11

1.05(50% rule)

 

12/1/2011

($ 1420 )

 UUP Jan 22
20 Lots
Calls               .65

11/25/11

 

 

 

 

 SPY Dec 116
6 lots
Puts              3.75

11/25/11

1.90(50% rule)

 

11/29/11

 ( $ 1100 )

AAPL Dec 390
6 lots
Calls            4.05

11/23/11

3 at 8.10
3 at 8.75
 

12/2/11

$ 2625

 SDS Dec 22
15 lots
Calls            1.38

11/21/11

1.20

 

11/28/11

($ 270)

CSCO Jan 20 2012 Put short; longJan20;2013 Call Put/Call Spread  0.07

2/14/11

 

   

 

             

 

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in the November  28, November 21, November 7, October 17, October 3, September 19, September 6, August 22, August 8, August 1, July 18, July 11, July 5, June 20, May 16, April 25, April 11,  March 21, March 14, March 7, February 21, 2011 February 7, 2011 January 24, 2011, December 20,2010, November 22, 2010, October 11, 2010, September 13, 2010, July 26, 2010, June 14, 2010, May 10, 2010, January 25, 2010, November 23, October 23, August 24, July 20, 2009 newsletters.

                    

                            

                                   This Weeks’ Economic Numbers and Media Data

 

Monday 10:00 hrs Factory Orders October ( – 0.4% vs 0.3% )10:00 hrs ISM Services Nov ( 53.4 vs 52.9 )
Tuesday 2nd Estimate for 3rd Qtr GDP is releasedHearing is held by a House panel on preventing insider trading
Wednesday 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 12/03 ( NA vs +3.932 mln bbls )15:00 hrs Consumer Credit Oct ( $ 7.0B vs $ 7.4B )Greek Parliament votes on 2012 budget 
Thursday 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 12/03 ( 395K vs 402K )                Continuing Claims 11/26 ( 3700K vs 3740K )European Central Bank expected to cut rates by at least 1/4% point; Bank of England also issues decision on rates.
 Friday  08:30 hrs Trade Balance Oct ( $ 44.0B vs $ 43.1B )09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Dec ( 65.0 vs 64.1 )Summit for European crisis: Last opportunity to address problem for this year..integration of tight constraints combined with ECB buying debt.

 

Economic Data

 

Economic reports were outstanding all week favoring both employment and corporate profits. Early in the week Challenger Job Cuts  showed employers making 13% fewer job cuts from a year ago even though productivity is up 2.3%. Then a day later, Wednesday morning, ADP reported  206K more jobs, well above the consensus of 125K expectations. Thursday brought about a poor Employment Claims Report, above the 400K mark again, but the disappointment was soon reversed by a very timely ISM ( Institute of Supply Management ) Report which showed Manufacturing to be 52.7 vs 51.0 expected and 50.8 in October. Auto and Truck sales were at a 10.34 million unit rate, up 2.3% over last month continuing their recovery. Then Last Friday, the Unemployment  Rate was just 8.6% and payrolls improved 140K in the Private sector and 120K overall. The Average Workweek remained the same at 34.3 hours.

 

However, most impressive, Hourly Earnings were down 0.1% indicating lower labor costs for industry.

 

 

 

Fundamentals ( previous letters may be seen at www.princetonresearch.com)

 

It was a huge week which saw indexes make the second largest gains in history only to have been bested by a week in 2008. The Russell rallied 10.34%; Transportation 9.12%; Nasdaq 7.59%, the S&P 500 7.39% and lastly the Dow 7.01%.

 

The Dow rallied 490.65 points just in one day, last Wednesday  following the ADP Employment Report. The dollar fell roughly 3.3% during the week, which was a relief from the weak Euro, but took a back seat to the very strong economic numbers. The Fed had all they could do to keep a lid on the greenback, which might have otherwise exploded muting the very nice equity rally.

 

Should next week close higher we might have the completion of a mirror image- up  weekly pattern.

 

 

Technical Information

 

      Support Levels:   S&P 500         1232; 1217                      Resistance S&P 500     1274; 1289

                                        DOW           11,920; 11,805               Resistance DOW        12,175; 12,360

                                        QQQ            5609; 5505                     Resistance QQQ           5729; 5855                     

                                        Nasdaq        2580; 2552                      Resistance Nasdaq      2663; 2716

                      

CYCLES

 

Short Term Cycles suggest lower prices early in the week and a firm market near the end
of the week. 

 

Rule 17B requires disclosure of payment for investor relations*

 

Princeton Research has received about $ 2,500 per month from Lucas ( LEI ) marked with an asterisk.    Princeton has been paid for investor relations in the past and has negotiated a contract to be paid 100,000 restricted shares from Leo Motors. Princeton is paid by Baron Energy ( BROE ) to do investor relations in the amount of 300,000 shares. Princeton has also bought separate shares about 327,600 and owns the shares for its own account. USPR paid us 200,000 restricted shares. Cross Border paid us 25,000 restricted shares and we bought and own another 25,000 purchased at higher prices.

 

CONTACT

 

 

Please Direct All Inquiries To:

 

Mike King

Princeton Research

3887 Pacific Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89121

 

Phone: (702) 650-3000

Fax: (702) 697-8944

mike@princetonresearch.com

Visit: www.princetonresearch.com

 

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